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Changing Newsrooms 2022 Media Leaders Embrace Hybrid Work Despite Challenges Federica CherubiniREUTERS INSTITUTE REPORT NOVEMBER 2022Changing Newsrooms 2022:Media Leaders Embrace Hybrid Work Despite ChallengesFederica CherubiniPublished by the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism at the University of Oxford.1Contents About the Author 2Acknowledgements 2Executive Summary 3 1.Hybrid and Flexible Working Are Here to Stay 52.The Impact of Flexible Working on the Workforce 153.Progress on Diversity:A Long Road Ahead 19 4.Conclusion 26 List of Interviewees 27Survey Methodology 28References 30 THE REUTERS INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF JOURNALISM2About the Author Federica Cherubini is the Head of Leadership Development at the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism.Acknowledgements The author is grateful to Rasmus Kleis Nielsen,Nic Newman and Richard Fletcher for their feedback and input on this report.Gretel Kahn Sasso conducted some of the in-depth interviews as research assistant.3CHANGING NEWSROOMS 2022:MEDIA LEADERS EMBRACE HYBRID WORK DESPITE CHALLENGESExecutive SummaryThe COVID-19 pandemic showed us that some of the assumptions we had about work were wrong.Across many industries,work had a dedicated place:the office.But lockdowns and enforced remote working made many realise that another way was possible,accelerating a quest by employees for flexibility and increased autonomy.In 2021,senior news industry leaders told us that they and their organisations were on board with the shift to hybrid and flexible working(Cherubini et al.2021).One year on,have newsrooms really transformed as a result of the shift initiated during the pandemic?Has the news industry truly embraced flexible and hybrid working?This report,which is based on a survey of 136 senior industry leaders from 39 countries and a series of in-depth interviews,tries to answer these questions and take stock of the status of the newsroom as a workplace and its future.Beyond organisational structures,we also looked at the impact on the workforce and whether flexible and hybrid work has made it easier for newsrooms to hire and retain talent.Moreover,we asked industry leaders whether they think that flexible working can have a positive impact on their diversity,equity and inclusion strategies,and their ability to have a more diverse and representative workforce.Among other things,we find that:News organisations have embraced the shift,with 61%of the survey respondents saying that their organisation has largely implemented hybrid and flexible working with new rules in place for staff.The majority of leaders who participated in the survey(57%)think their organisations are doing a good job with it.Even so,20%of survey respondents report that while their organisations are making some changes,they largely want to return to a pre-pandemic working model.The most common approach,indicated by 49%of the survey respondents,sees staff required to be in the office for a compulsory minimum number of days a week/month.A further 29%of respondents indicated that their organisations follow a more voluntary approach,in which staff are expected to be in the office a minimum number of days of their choice.Having explicit rules,setting clear expectations and communicating them transparently and,most of all,articulating the purpose of going to the office and making sure that the benefit of doing so is clear helps when implementing flexible working models.But the jury is still out on whether employees actually want to be back in the office,with 39%of survey respondents reporting that their newsrooms are struggling to get people back,while 38%say they are not struggling.The office as a physical space has also changed:47%of newsroom leaders said their organisations have already redesigned the office space to better accommodate hybrid working,with another 27%saying they are considering doing so.Almost one-third(31%)report that their organisation has already reduced their office premises.THE REUTERS INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF JOURNALISM4 Almost half of survey respondents(49%)think that hybrid and flexible working has made hiring and retaining talent much or somewhat easier,while 65%think that hybrid and flexible working could increase their ability to hire diverse talent and have a positive impact on their diversity,equity and inclusion strategies.Looking at diversity,most of our respondents think their organisations are doing a good job with gender diversity(79%),but less so when it comes to ethnic diversity(47%),diversity from less-advantaged backgrounds(30%),and political diversity(27%).One-third(33%)of the leaders who participated in the survey indicated that gender diversity has been the single most important priority for their news organisations to change,while another 32%indicated it was ethnic diversity.Getting hybrid and flexible working right is not just about having clear rules;persuading people back to the office requires more attention and intentional planning from management.Its about articulating what the purpose of the office and working together is.One of the effects of the pandemic and hybrid working on newsroom culture that newsroom leaders worry about is a mounting sense of disconnect among employees,with one-third(36%)of survey respondents believing that hybrid and flexible working has weakened the sense of belonging to the organisation.Among other things,our respondents say that implementing new working models has also increased the pressure on managers,and particularly middle managers,who are left to be the conduit between leadership priorities and employees requirements and expectations.Beyond hybrid and flexible working,investing in talent and improving diversity remain two fundamental aspects the industry needs to focus on.Alongside concentrating on finding the right diverse talent that reflects the audiences they serve,news organisations will also need to make sure they establish a sense of connection and shared purpose with their staff,in order to retain them and build an inclusive workplace culture.Beyond implementing specific initiatives,often focused on broadening the talent pipeline,the road to transforming newsrooms into a diverse and inclusive place is still long.This report is based on a survey of a strategic sample of news industry leaders,completed between 27 September and 28 October 2022,and it is complemented by seven in-depth interviews.Respondents include editors-in-chief or executive editors,CEOs,and managing editors,as well as other senior positions in editorial,talent development,and commercial.The sample includes individuals working in a wide range of different companies with a print,magazine,broadcast,and news agency background,as well as digital-born news organisations.The majority of the respondents are from the Global North,and most of them work in mid-size and large organisations;our results thus do not capture the often very different situations faced by small organisations and those operating in poor and/or authoritarian countries.It is not a representative sample and it is not a random sample,and,therefore,it does not allow for generalisation to the industry at large.Because of the strategic sample we rely on,direct year-to-year comparisons of specific figures are not possible,although the data do help us identify overall patterns.More details of the methodology and make-up of the sample are provided in the section at the end of the report.5CHANGING NEWSROOMS 2022:MEDIA LEADERS EMBRACE HYBRID WORK DESPITE CHALLENGES1 Hybrid and Flexible Working Are Here to Stay1.1 Newsrooms have embraced the shift to hybrid and flexible workingLast year,a newsroom leader who participated in the Changing Newsrooms 2021 survey(Cherubini et al.2021)described the moment as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to reshape newsrooms and the ways we work.The COVID-19 pandemic had altered peoples lives,and one of the consequences was that many businesses,including the news industry,were first forced to move many of their staff to remote working,and then instituted a hybrid set-up,with some employees working from home and some from the office.In the 2021 study,which we conducted between September and October 2021,most of the news leaders who participated(79%)had declared their organisations were on board with the shift to hybrid and flexible working,and even more 89%of the respondents said they were themselves committed to it.One year on,have newsrooms really transformed as a result of a shift initiated during the pandemic?And has the news industry truly adopted flexible and hybrid working?According to this years survey,news organisations have embraced the shift to a hybrid and flexible working model.Sixty-one per cent of the survey respondents say that their organisations have largely implemented hybrid and flexible working,with new rules in place for staff.An additional 17%said their organisations want to implement a new model,but they are still working out how to best do it.However,20%of newsroom leaders who participated in the survey indicated that,while their organisations are making some changes,they largely want to return to a pre-pandemic working model.Figure 1.Current news industry thinking on hybrid and flexible workingWe have largely implemented hybrid working with new rules now in place for staff We want to implement a new hybrid model,but are still working out how best to do it We are making some changes,but we largely want to return to a pre-pandemic model Dont know/unsure61 %2%Q4.To the best of your knowledge,where is your news organisations thinking in terms of embracing a hybrid and flexible working model?N=136.THE REUTERS INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF JOURNALISM6In some instances,the back-to-work plans implemented by some organisations have led to disagreements between staff and management,as in the case of Italian national title Corriere della Sera,where newsroom staff staged a protest as a result of the organisations leadership declaring the end of flexible working.1 Earlier in September,the new return to the office policy was also among the causes of a protest by more than a thousand New York Times employees.2 In our survey we asked senior industry leaders whether they thought their organisations were doing a good or a bad job in managing the shift to hybrid and flexible working;the majority(57%)opted for a positive answer and said their organisations were doing a good job.(It is not always clear that rank-and-file staff necessarily agree.)Figure 2.How news leaders think their organisations are handling hybrid and flexible workingGood jobNeither good nor badBad jobDont know0 W2%9%1%Q2.Is your news organisation doing a good job or a bad job in managing the shift to flexible/hybrid working?N=136.Note:Numbers do not add up to 100%due to rounding.For many newsroom leaders it seems clear that hybrid working is here to stay.I dont think that we will ever come to a time where hybrid is not a way of life,said Mpho Raborife,Managing Editor at online publication News24 in South Africa.We embraced the uncertainty with a very flexible framework that gave teams a lot of room for experimenting.That helped find individual solutions,enabling most colleagues to get a better worklife balance,agreed the CEO of a German news publisher.For some,adopting new ways of working means embracing the best of both worlds,explained Natalia Uval,Editor-in-Chief of La Diaria in Uruguay:I think we are doing a good job because we take good things of virtual working(effectiveness,punctuality,comfort)and good things of face-to-face work(human interaction,discussions,collective construction).1 https:/www.corriere.it/cronache/22_ottobre_07/comunicato-comitato-redazione-risposta-editore-f4948638-4592-11ed-ae76-796653a6438b.shtml 2 https:/NEWSROOMS 2022:MEDIA LEADERS EMBRACE HYBRID WORK DESPITE CHALLENGES1.2 Communicating with clarity mattersWhen it comes to how news organisations are implementing hybrid and flexible working,the most common approach,indicated by 49%of survey respondents,see staff required to be in the office for a compulsory minimum number of days each week or month.A further 29%of participants indicated that their organisations follow a more voluntary approach,in which staff are expected to be in the office a minimum number of days of their choice.In other cases,employees are encouraged to come to the office on common days,but there is no formal expectation for them to do so.Five per cent of survey respondents indicated that their organisations require the majority of staff to work from home most of the time.Figure 3.Approaches news organisations are following when implementing hybrid and flexible workingCompulsory minimum number of days when staff are required to be in the officeVoluntary minimum number of days when staff are expected to be in the officeMajority of staff are required to work from home most of the timeOther49)%5%Q5.Which approach comes closest to how your news organisation is tackling the issue of flexible/hybrid working?N=136.Some organisations are deliberately experimenting with different approaches to determine the best set-up,as in the case of UK publisher DC Thomson,which is adopting different rules across its offices and newsrooms,in order to monitor uptake and staff reactions.Were trialling two different approaches,explained Chief Transformation Officer Tom Miller:We have newsrooms in two cities in Scotland,so were testing a different approach with each.The headquarters where I am right now in Dundee is taking a very flexible approach.Everybody is welcome back,the offices are open,but were not mandating any required attendance.In the office in Aberdeen,we are trialling two fixed days per week,so they have what we call focus days on Tuesdays and Wednesdays,when all the newsroom attends.And then we have one more flexible but mandated day as well.So,its Tuesday and Wednesday plus one other day of their choosing.Miller said that the company hasnt decided yet which approach they will choose:I dont know which way it will go yet.Were still listening,he concluded.When it comes to identifying the best approach,regardless of which specific approach is chosen,many agree that communicating with clarity helps.There is a very clear framework for working remotely and a good HR tool to plan and keep track of who is working hybrid and who will come in,commented Ezra Eeman,Change Director at Mediahuis in Belgium.THE REUTERS INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF JOURNALISM8The rule is clear,explained a French newsroom manager,describing a formalised approach with eight or ten days of home working per month and a minimum of two days per week present in the office.Its very flexible,they added,You can decide at the last minute to be working from home according to your duties of the day or your personal life.Looking more in detail at how flexible working is implemented,the most popular approach seems to be based on a variation of a 3-2 model,with three days in the office and two at home,or the reverse.Tuesday,Wednesday,and Thursday are very often mentioned as office-dedicated days.In some cases,rules on office attendance inside the same organisation vary,with individual managers tasked with deciding whats best for their teams.Variations can also occur between departments.According to one Spanish manager,flexibility is well established in their organisations product and development teams,whereas journalists are expected to be more present in the office.It remains to be seen whether different groups accept such variations as reasonable and legitimate,or whether this will become a source of friction going forward.The survey highlighted differences also between roles and not just teams:It depends on their role reporters only have to be in the office once a week,whereas editors must be in the newsroom,but can work from home if necessary.Editor-in-Chief,daily regional newspaper in GermanyDifferent newsroom cultures and generational differences are other variables to consider.Some reported younger staff being keener on working from the office,while some senior managers prefer to work from home(perhaps in part to avoid commuting and enjoy the comfort of their houses).However,the opposite is also true,with survey participants describing instances in which some senior editors and executives are insisting that staff return to the newsroom full time,due to whats been described as visibility bias,where the part of the team that shows up to the office is generally seen as more engaged.Its worth mentioning that in some instances where clear rules have been established,their terms have been negotiated with unions or staff representatives.In some cases this is due to the labour laws and regulations that exist in certain countries.However,having clear rules or frameworks doesnt automatically mean that frameworks are followed,or rules enforced.In some cases this is done on purpose to allow flexibility.A manager at a British publication says:A minimum of two days per week,with days decided by team leaders,has been recommended but not enforced,allowing flexibility in arrangements and a sense that people will try to be together,rather than forcing them to attend the office.Exemptions are still in place for staff with health considerations.9CHANGING NEWSROOMS 2022:MEDIA LEADERS EMBRACE HYBRID WORK DESPITE CHALLENGESIn other cases,the lack of enforcement creates a lack of clarity and a grey area,leading to an increasing gap between a de facto situation and policy framework,as one participant described it.The company allows us to work remotely,but its not really arranged.There was one email about the time you are required to be in the newsroom,but there is no supervision as far as I can tell,added a Dutch editor.Policy-wise,we have moved to flexible working.But we have not yet convinced the bulk of our staff to return for two days a week.Executive Editor,global newsroomSome organisations,even when they have put clear rules in place,continue to re-evaluate the situation,as Francisco Balsemo,CEO of Impresa media group in Portugal,explained:We implemented a model whereby employees can work three days at the office and two at home.However,there are safeguards for the company,i.e.employees dont have a right to WFH work from home,it is a benefit that can be revoked on an ad hoc basis if the company needs people to be at the office for a project,breaking news,etc.This provides flexibility for employees but also for the company.1.3 Do staff want to be back in the office?Regardless of what rules organisations have put in place in terms of home versus office work,opinions are divided on whether staff are effectively coming back to the office.At the end of summer 2022,there were reports of other industries also battling with their employees to get them back into the workplace.3 In the survey,we asked managers and news executives whether they felt their organisations were struggling to get people back:39%agreed or strongly agreed that their organisations were having a hard time persuading people to return to the office,while 38%said they disagreed or strongly disagreed with the statement.The media leaders who responded to our survey may have a clear sense of what they think good looks like,but aligning vision and reality is as always a challenge.3 https:/REUTERS INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF JOURNALISM10Figure 4.Some news leaders struggle to get staff back in the officeStrongly agreeTend to agreeNeither agree nor disagreeTend to disagreeStrongly disagree0 )#%Q6.To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement?My organisation is struggling to get staff back into the office.N=136.In their annual Work Trend Index report,Microsoft found that more than one-third(38%)of employees working a hybrid model say their biggest challenge is knowing when and why to come into the office.4 In response to that,one of the reports main takeaways is that leaders need to make the office worth the commute.When we asked in our survey what approaches news leaders have found to be effective in persuading their staff back into the office,many mentioned organising events and social activities;promoting team innovation days or work-from-work days;ensuring more people are present on the same day to make the office feel alive;and providing free food.No one wants to be the only person in the office.So,were focusing our efforts on particular days to create the best environment,commented the CEO of a UK publication.Mpho Raborife,Managing Editor of News24 in South Africa,said that the organisation has been very deliberate in its choice of vocabulary when communicating the need to get back to the office to the newsroom.They stress that the goal is not to bring people into the building for the sake of it,but to re-establish that social fabric between the teams and establishing their creativity,and allowing for the off-the-cuff banter that used to exist before.Getting people back to the office also requires more attention and intentional planning from management.According to the CEO of a German publisher,what helped in their case was making more sense of days in the office,commonly and openly redefining what the purposes of real-life meetings are.Getting them to see the benefits of coming back is crucial,meaning it has to make a difference to their workflow,inspiration,agreed the executive editor of a French online news outlet.Staff must have good reasons to come back to the office,so we must give them good reasons:useful meetings,useful interactions,a comfortable place to work.Natalia Uval,Editor-in-Chief,La Diaria,Uruguay4 The 2022 Work Trend Index is based on a study of 31,000 people in 31 countries.https:/NEWSROOMS 2022:MEDIA LEADERS EMBRACE HYBRID WORK DESPITE CHALLENGESThe value of the office is in the people,not the place,wrote Microsofts Chief Marketing Officer Chris Capossela in an article for the Harvard Business Review(Capossela,2022).Examples of successful flexible working environments rely on clarity of expectations and communication,intentional planning and trust:Successful flexible working environments are built on trust and have led to more satisfied and more diverse teams when resources are invested in developing that trust.Editor at US online-only publication1.4 The effects of the pandemic and hybrid working on newsroom culturea sense of disconnectionIn last years report,efficiency and increased productivity were seen as some of the biggest gains of the shift to hybrid and remote working(Cherubini et al.2021).One year on,while some worry about a loss in productivity,many of our survey respondents dont see a clear impact of hybrid and flexible working on productivity:45%says the shift to hybrid and flexible working has neither positively nor negatively impacted productivity,while 38%says it has impacted it positively.Figure 5.How flexible and hybrid working has impacted productivityPositivelyNeither positively nor negativelyNegativelyDont knowPositivelyNeither positively nor negativelyNegativelyDont know38E%7%Q10.The shift to hybrid/flexible working has impacted positively or negatively staffs productivity?N=135.As several survey participants have remarked,one of the main benefits of coming back to the office revolves around re-establishing human connections and personal relationships.More than one-third(36%)of survey respondents say that the shift to hybrid and flexible working has weakened the staffs sense of belonging to the organisation.THE REUTERS INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF JOURNALISM12Figure 6.How flexible and hybrid working has impacted the staffs sense of belonging to the organisationStrengthenedNeither strengthened nor weakenedWeakenedDont know7A6%Q9.The shift to hybrid/flexible working has strengthened or weakened staffs sense of belonging to the organisation?N=135.Tom Miller,Chief Transformation Officer at DC Thomson,said that the company is conducting surveys as part of the evaluation process,to establish the best approach to flexible working.One of the issues they are trying to determine,he said,is if people have a stronger sense of connection to the company depending on whether they are working remotely or from the office,and whether they feel that their views are still represented when they are working from home.Making sure people feel connected and part of the organisation even when working remotely is one of the main challenges study participants have identified.Not meeting each other really hurts the sense of community and shared purpose,explained the director of a Hungarian media company.We try to encourage people to come to the office every now and then because theres so much energy,so many ideas that get generated,agreed Naresh Fernandes,Editor and Founder of digital news site Scroll in India.And you need to be reminded of the spirit of the organisation and the organisational ethos,which comes only when people are hanging together,he added.Part of the answer to this challenge resides in a more intentional approach from management.Were learning that flexibility is good,but it must be coupled with intentionality,commented Keri Mitchell,Executive Director at Dallas Free Press,USA.If the challenge of re-creating or re-asserting the bonds within a team or across different teams in the newsrooms has been mentioned by many,the issue is even more pronounced when onboarding new staff.Integrating new hires into our culture,so everyone“feels”what it means to be a Standard editor,is what Martin Kotynek,Editor-in-Chief of Der Standard in Austria,has described as the main challenge his newsroom is facing in transitioning to a hybrid set-up.In the past this just happened,now it has to be managed.But theres no going back to the past,thats just the way work works now,he added.The same challenge is highlighted by a senior executive at a public service media company:We have hundreds of employees who have joined since the pandemic and really have no connection to the organisation beyond Zoom.Remote work has,in my opinion at least,eroded the organisational culture and created a far more transactional environment.In a mission-driven creative organisation that is arguably problematic.13CHANGING NEWSROOMS 2022:MEDIA LEADERS EMBRACE HYBRID WORK DESPITE CHALLENGESIn last years study,communication was one of the aspects that were deemed more difficult to get right in a remote setting.5 Learning how to have difficult conversations and dealing with conflict or internal disagreement in hybrid and remote environments is proving hard for managers and is increasingly the focus of management training programmes.A proactive approach to counterbalance the risk of disconnection among staff is not limited to efforts to drive people back together to the workplace;it also lies in intentionally erasing the disparities between at-home staff and in-person staff in how they experience the companys culture.Its been harder,some editors mentioned,to spot staff members who are drifting away.To maintain the ties among his distributed newsroom,Naresh Fernandes,Editor and Founder of Indian outlet Scroll,mentioned that hes personally been putting in extra effort,talking to everyone in his organisation on a weekly basis.I talk to people individually as often as I can.Were trying to build these personal ties,especially for people who might be feeling isolated,he said.positive effects on inclusivityAlongside the risk of a deepening sense of disconnect among employees,hybrid and remote working also has positive implications.Staff working across a very large geographical patch are now more included than ever.With hybrid working so commonplace,people dont feel excluded if theyre not in the office,remarked Emily Hewett,Head of Audience Development at DC Thomson.According to others,hybrid working also enables employees to redefine their boundaries with the employers,focusing on productivity and measurable output rather than defaulting to presenteeism.This can be empowering for team members if they feel confident enough to seize the chance,a senior editor at a global organisation commented.the pressure on managersThe added layer of complexity when it comes to making sure that extra planning goes into re-imagining what working together means,driven by intentionally rebuilding relationships and re-aligning on purpose,has put additional pressure on managers.The biggest challenges around hybrid newsrooms are managerial,commented the Deputy Editor-in-Chief of a French regional publication.According to the latest Future Forum Pulse report(2022),burnout is on the rise in the global workforce,with 43%of middle managers who participated in its survey reporting that they feel burnt out at work.6 Managers now are not only responsible for translating their organisations strategy into day-to-day priorities and tasks for their staff,but also are required to embrace a new style of leadership 5 In Changing Newsrooms 2021(Cherubini et al.2021),survey respondents highlighted the negative impact they felt remote working was having on softer skills such as creativity,communication,and collaboration with more than four in ten(43%)saying communication had suffered.6 The October 2022 Future Forum Pulse report is based on a survey of 10,766 workers across the US,Australia,France,Germany,Japan,and the UK,conducted 321 August 2022.THE REUTERS INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF JOURNALISM14that includes the ability to take care of their people and articulate the purpose of the work.Hybrid newsroom work requires a new kind of management and planning,according to the chief digital officer at a Finnish media company.Earlier this year,the Harvard Business Review described the problem as a performance-compassion dilemma,in which managers especially middle managers are trapped,torn between performance demands from their managers above and calls for compassion from their team and direct reports(Gardner and Mortensen 2022).Middle managers are on the front line of office life,wrote Emma Jacobs in the Financial Times in September 2022,from motivating staff to maintaining company culture,demands on team leaders intensify as they juggle the expectations of employees and senior leaders(Jacobs 2022).Phil Chetwynd,Global News Director at Agence France-Presse(AFP),commented:The biggest challenge is the extra pressure and stress on managers keeping track of team members in different locations and ensuring smooth communication.The challenge of staff using multiple communication platforms is also considerable and adds to the management challenge.1.5 Redesigning the office space and improving the toolsThe pandemic and flexible and hybrid working also had some impact on office space.Our survey shows that 47%of newsroom leaders said their organisations have already redesigned the physical office space to better accommodate hybrid working,with another 27%saying they are considering doing so.Almost one-third(31%)report that their organisation has already reduced their physical space.The vast majority(71%)report having already invested in new or improved technologies to ensure good performance of hybrid meetings.Figure 7.How newsrooms have changed office space and technology toolsAlready doneConsidering itNot considering itDont knowReducing office spaceRedesigning office physical spaces to accommodate hybrid workInvesting in new or improved digital technologies for hybrid meetings31 FGq%6%Q8.To your knowledge,as part of the move to more flexible/hybrid working,which of the following has your organisation done/is considering/is not considering?N=136.In the UK,DC Thomson has invested significantly in upgrading their audio-visual technology,Tom Miller said,stressing that one of the reasons was to counterbalance presenteeism and make sure that people joining meetings remotely are not at a disadvantage.15CHANGING NEWSROOMS 2022:MEDIA LEADERS EMBRACE HYBRID WORK DESPITE CHALLENGES2 The Impact of Flexible Working on the Workforce2.1 Flexible working is a plus for recruitment but has its challengesDuring the COVID-19 pandemic many people,finding themselves confined to enforced remote working and seeing the lines between their personal and professional lives blurring,were prompted to rethink some aspects of their lives,including the role work plays.We read about the Great Resignation,with some employees quitting their jobs in high numbers and making changes to their lives 7 For some,remote and flexible working has been one of the potential answers to this issue.In our survey we wanted to look at the extent to which flexible and hybrid working has had an impact on the workforce,and if it really was providing an opportunity for news organisations to hire more distributed teams.The results seem to be pointing in this direction:almost half of survey respondents(49%)think that hybrid and flexible working has made hiring and retaining talent much easier or somewhat easier.Twenty-one per cent think that it hasnt substantially changed anything,and 18%think it made it much harder or somewhat harder to acquire and retain talent.Figure 8.Most media leaders think flexible working has made talent acquisition and retention easierMuch easierSomewhat easierIt hasnt changed anythingSomewhat harderMuch harderDont know0 8!%5%Q12.To what extent the experience of hybrid and flexible working has made recruitment and retention easier or harder to address?N=131.Note:Numbers do not add up to 100%due to rounding.A general consensus in our study points to hybrid and flexible working as an expected subject of conversation with new hires,with some news leaders stressing that the first thing most job candidates want to know is whether the organisation allows some remote working and how many days they will have to be in the office.Many wont consider a non-remote-friendly or non-flexible job,some editors said.7 https:/en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Resignation THE REUTERS INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF JOURNALISM16Being able to offer flexible working arrangements is seen by many industry leaders as a competitive advantage,but they also recognise that it brings some challenges:Hybrid working has opened up opportunities for recruitment across several borders.But this has also made competition for talent fiercer and made recruitment and retention somewhat harder.Adesola Afolabi,Deputy Editor,Stears,NigeriaThere is also awareness that this stops being a competitive advantage the moment that other companies embrace the same flexible policies.The CEO of a German publisher commented:That also works the other way around competitors from other cities could make our colleagues better offers without them having to move.Competition will surely become stronger.Several news leaders underlined the advantage of having access to a wider pool of talent,without the constraints of geography and having to hire staff in the vicinity of newsroom offices or headquarters.This seems a particularly appealing point when trying to hire talent whose skillsets are in high demand and for which competition from other industries(that often can pay higher salaries)is fiercer,as in the case of engineering and product talent.8At the same time,several survey participants highlighted how much harder it is to establish relationships with the new hires and develop a strong sense of belonging to the organisation,with many fearing the effect this will have on retention.Hybrid work allows us to recruit top talents,but those who join from home have some difficulties integrating with the team,commented Francesca Milano from Italian news podcast company Chora Media.Members of staff can feel isolated and lose the sense of purpose that brought them to journalism in the first place,commented one French editor.Its made recruiting remote talent easier,but I think its made retention harder,said the Editor-in-Chief of a global newsroom.Its difficult to gauge on video calls how someone is feeling about work or if they might be thinking of leaving and try to mitigate those situations,they added.In the survey we asked newsroom leaders whether they thought that hybrid and flexible working could increase their ability to hire diverse talent and have a positive impact on their diversity,equity and inclusion strategies.Sixty-five per cent of survey respondents agreed or strongly agreed with the statement,but beyond seeing it as a possibility from survey comments and interviews it still seems too early to establish a direct link between the two.8 Only 28%of the Changing Newsrooms 2021 survey respondents said they were confident about attracting and retaining talent in commercial,27%in data science,and 18%in the technology area(Cherubini et al.2021).17CHANGING NEWSROOMS 2022:MEDIA LEADERS EMBRACE HYBRID WORK DESPITE CHALLENGESFigure 9.Most media leaders think hybrid and flexible working could help with improving diversity in newsroomsStrongly agreeTend to agreeNeither agree nor disagreeTend to disagreeStrongly disagreeDont know0 05%9%2%2%Q20.To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement?Hybrid and flexible working can increase our ability to hire diverse talent and have a positive impact on our diversity,equity and inclusion strategies.N=128.2.2 Investing in learning opportunitiesAnother aspect that was often raised,both in last years and this years study,is how the absence of staff in the newsroom was endangering the learnings by osmosis process,where more inexperienced staff learn,in part,by being able to observe how colleagues behave and engaging in casual conversations in the newsroom.We asked newsroom leaders what their organisations are doing to promote a culture of continuous learning.Sixty-nine per cent of survey respondents indicated their organisations run skills training programmes,47%indicated leadership development programmes,46%mentoring programmes and 45%management programmes.Other programmes mentioned include recurrent talks,workshops and lunch-and-learn sessions.THE REUTERS INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF JOURNALISM18Figure 10.What news organisations are doing to promote a culture of continuous learningSkills training programmesLeadership development programmesMentoring programmesManagement programmesOther programmesNone of the aboveI dont know69GFE%2%Q14.According to some,hybrid and home working has highlighted the challenge of relying solely on a learning by osmosis culture-what is your newsroom doing to promote a culture of continuous learning?Select all that apply.N=131.Last year the New York Times launched a Newsroom Culture and Careers Department,with the specific intent of investing in the development of their workplace culture and creating an enriching environment for their staff.9 Transforming the organisations culture was identified as the cornerstone of the strategy to build a more diverse,equitable and inclusive New York Times,as detailed in a diversity report(New York Times 2021;Robertson 2021).In February 2022,Associated Press also announced the appointment of two new roles focused on developing newsroom talent:a director of news talent for development,tasked with leading internal training,growth and mentorship opportunities,and a director of news talent for recruitment,whose job is aimed at bringing new,diverse journalists into the organisation.10 9 https:/https:/blog.ap.org/announcements/ap-names-2-directors-for-newsroom-talent 19CHANGING NEWSROOMS 2022:MEDIA LEADERS EMBRACE HYBRID WORK DESPITE CHALLENGES3 Progress on Diversity:A Long Road AheadAs in past years,there was no shortage of conversations in the journalism industry about the need to continue to diversify newsrooms and make them more representative and more inclusive.11 However,previous research has shown that progress in these areas is slow.Taking a sample of ten top online news outlets and ten top offline news outlets in 12 markets,Eddy et al.(2022a)found that only 21%of the editors in the sample analysed were women,even though,on average,40%of journalists in those 12 markets are women.The top-line figure was 22ross the same markets in the previous year.Looking at race,the overall percentage of non-white top editors in a strategic sample of 100 major online and offline news outlets in five different markets across four continents was 21%,despite the fact that,on average,43%of the general population across all five countries is non-white(Eddy et al.2022b).While some steps are being taken in some organisations,despite all the talk it is not at all clear that substantial progress is being made by the industry overall.The conversation about diversity is a nuanced one,as much of the context varies country by country and is the result of different historical,cultural and societal backgrounds.For global organisations,for example,the challenge is to truly reflect that global nature:We are finding diversity and inclusion are complex concepts.We need to be careful not to impose an Anglo-American view on this hot topic.We have a very global newsroom,and the issue is viewed very differently from Kinshasa to Paris to New York,explained Phil Chetwynd from AFP.Based on the recommendations of a diversity committee that was set up in May 2021,AFP has implemented some changes in the last year,including hiring a diversity editor,giving priority to scholarship holders for work-study contracts,and launching two new scholarships aimed at identifying new talent:one for Arabic-speaking journalists in the Middle East and North Africa,and the other for Spanish-speaking journalists in Latin America.12,13Rules across different countries also vary in terms of what information the law allows organisations to track.An executive editor at a French outlet explained how matters are complicated by the fact that in France organisations are not allowed to collect data about diversity.We tend to hire more people with a focus on diversity,but we lack the tools because theres no real organisation or institution which is dealing with the issue in French journalism,they commented.As in previous Changing Newsrooms surveys,we wanted to get a sense from senior industry leaders of their assessment of their organisations results when it comes to diversity.The majority of our respondents think their organisations are doing a good job with gender diversity(79%),but less so when it comes to ethnic diversity(47%),diversity from less-advantaged backgrounds(30%),and political diversity(27%).11 https:/wan-ifra.org/2022/02/what-are-the-qualities-of-an-inclusive-editor-and-why-it-matters/12 https:/13 https:/THE REUTERS INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF JOURNALISM20Figure 11.How news leaders think their organisations are doing in terms of diversity Good jobNeither agree nor disagreeBad jobDont knowGender diversityEthnic diversityDiversity with less advantagedPolitical diversity79G50!G81%Q17.To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements?I feel my news organisation is doing a good job when it comes to gender diversity|ethnic diversity|diversity with less advantaged|political diversity.N=129.This year one-third(33%)of the leaders who participated in the survey indicated gender diversity as the single most important priority for their news organisation to change,while another 32%indicated ethnic diversity,followed by more representation of those from a less-advantaged background(13%)and more political diversity(9%).Figure 12.Gender and ethnic diversity are seen as the top priorities for changeGender diversityEthnic diversityMore diversity for those from a less advantaged backgroundPolitical diversityNone of these/dont know332%9%Q18.In terms of improving newsroom diversity which of the following is the single most important priority for your news organisation this year?N=128.For some organisations the focus on diversity is seen as a competitive advantage in terms of finding diverse talent.We are a small newsroom,but diversity is one of our strongest assets and it comes naturally because of the type of content we work on,explained Alia Ibrahim,co-founder and CEO of Daraj Media in Lebanon.She continued,Since we create content that focuses on marginalised groups and underreported minorities,we tend to attract journalists and content producers who belong to those categories,and this reflects on the structure of our team.In some countries,geographic diversity is also a dimension to consider,as this Colombian editor explains:We have focused on regional diversity,bringing interns from regional public universities to be less Bogota-centred and less elitist.21CHANGING NEWSROOMS 2022:MEDIA LEADERS EMBRACE HYBRID WORK DESPITE CHALLENGESSome leaders have mentioned working on bridging a generational gap,others a societal background one.We are welcoming teenagers from underprivileged areas to spend a week in the newsroom,to discover how it works so they can feel legitimate to embrace the career if they are interested,explained the editor of a French local outlet.We think it is the right age:early enough.Our difficulty to increase diversity in the newsroom comes from very little diversity in the students coming from journalism courses,they added.In Germany,CORRECTIV also has a youth programme,publisher David Schraven told us,which is focused on educating talent from diverse backgrounds and setting up newsrooms in regions that are underrepresented or in the provinces.Several survey participants mentioned in their comments initiatives to improve talent acquisition,with activities like hiring through consultants specialised in historically underserved groups,conducting an anonymised sifting of job applicants(initially reviewing their assessments without looking at their names),and ensuring more diversity in hiring panels.Despite the initiatives,some constraints might play a role in limiting results.We are in many ways well set up,with proper initiatives and stated goals,explained a British editor.But staff turnover is very low and can be a real impediment to change,they added.This is a reminder that many organisations,in particular legacy newspapers and broadcasters,are trying to adapt existing,often long-standing,structures that often come with built-in inequalities along many lines,including gender,ethnicity and race,and class.This also applies to when people joined an organisation,especially when we compare those who joined in the early 2000s or before to those who joined later.Asked about how concerned they are about intergenerational divides around pay and working conditions in their company,48%of our respondents say they have high or very high levels of concern over this,whereas just 15%express low or very low concern.Figure 13.Levels of concern about intergenerational divides around pay and working conditionsVery highHighNeither high nor lowLowVery lowDont know0 72%4%5%Q16.What is your level of concern about intergenerational divides around pay and working conditions in your company?N=131.THE REUTERS INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF JOURNALISM223.1 Diversity and inclusion initiativesAs in 2021,we asked editors and executives what initiatives their organisations have put in place to track progress on diversity:64%said their organisations are collecting and making available diversity data about their staff and 50%also have data about the diversity of their newsroom leadership.Forty-two per cent of survey respondents said their organisations have someone in charge of diversity,equity,and inclusion(DEI)policies and 34%said they collect and make available data about the diversity of contributors and interviewees.Just 39%of respondents said they have budget for internal initiatives to actively promote diversity in their newsrooms,and 21%said their organisations have none of the initiatives listed in place.Figure 14.What news organisations are doing in terms of diversityWe collect/make available data about diversity of staff(e.g.gender,ethnicity)We collect/make available data about newsroom leadership(e.g.gender,ethnicity)We have someone formally in charge of diversity,equity and inclusion practicesWe have budget for internal initiatives to actively promote diversity in our newsroomWe collect/make available data about diversity of contributors and interviewees(e.g.gender/ethnicity)None of these64PB94!%Q19.To the best of your knowledge,does your organisation do any of the following?Select all that apply.N=125.In some cases,to make up for the lack of company-wide initiatives,or in other cases simply to complement them,some leaders have started to play a more proactive personal role.Ive created mentorship opportunities both inside the company and with outside mentors to give a wider view of not just the current media landscape but what is possible,explained an editor in a US publishing group.3.2 Examples of initiatives to promote diversity and inclusionIn a previous issue of this report(Cherubini et al.2020)we highlighted some of the initiatives that have been undertaken by news organisations to foster diversity,including the BBCs 50:50 Equality Project,and technology-led initiatives that use bots to track the gender diversity of experts and sources they quote,as in the case of Dagens Nyheter in Sweden and the Financial Times in the UK(Borchardt et al.2019).23CHANGING NEWSROOMS 2022:MEDIA LEADERS EMBRACE HYBRID WORK DESPITE CHALLENGESBelow we share some projects and industry initiatives,which is by no means meant to be a comprehensive list of whats being done,nor does it indicate a value judgement on their results.Nevertheless,we hope they can provide some interesting examples.EqualVoice by Ringier Group,SwitzerlandEqualVoice is an initiative from the Ringier media group in Switzerland.14 Started in 2019 by Annabella Bassler,the groups Chief Financial Officer,the project leverages AI to promote equal representation of women and men,making women more visible in media coverage and giving them an equal voice.Using a semantic algorithm EqualVoice measures the visibility of women in articles published by Ringier and Ringier Axel Springer Switzerland.It does so by looking at two indicators:the Teaser Score,which evaluates the visibility of women in images,headlines and titles,and the Body Score,which shows how often women and men are mentioned in an articles text.Every online outlet in the group gets a score that reflects how many women are represented in their reporting.The data is tracked live and is displayed through dashboards,where journalists can see the traffic to their articles and the number of women that are represented,explained Stefan Mair,Head of Newsroom Coaching for EqualVoice.The tool is used by 100 newsrooms in the Ringier group and its implementation has recently started in newsrooms in the Axel Springer media group in Germany.Mair explained that each newsroom sets its own goals and then reports its results to the executive board twice a year.There are no formal consequences for missing a goal,but the accountability of the reporting process is enough to keep the newsrooms engaged,Mair said.Alongside the score tracker,the project has introduced side initiatives like the EqualVoice expert list,a database of 500 women in different fields in Switzerland,and the EqualVoice Summit,where media industry leaders are invited to Zrich to discuss representation of women and diversity in media.Through semantic and picture analysis,EqualVoice also plans to look at how women and men are represented in the story.As an example,Mair cites an instance in which the analysis showed that women were represented,but often as victims,whereas the experts who helped identified solutions were always men.14 https:/www.equalvoice.ch/en/THE REUTERS INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF JOURNALISM24Language,Please by Vox Media,USAInspired by discussions in the newsrooms about how to best use language that can be truly inclusive and help readers understand a topic without risking perpetuating stereotypes,Vox Media launched a project in July 2022 called Language,Please.15,16 The project,we read on its website,is a free,living resource available to all journalists and storytellers seeking to thoughtfully cover evolving social,cultural,and identity-related topics.It includes:A style guidance with a list of terms for definitions that add context,explain usage debate,and suggest related content,with categories like disabilities,neurodiversity,and chronic illness,class and social standing,and borders and populations.An inclusivity reader directory to access readers with expertise in a particular subject.Editorial tools,including downloadable tip sheets,infographics,and an interactive edit exercise to spark conversations and facilitate thoughtful decision-making around story framing,language usage,and more.15 The project was funded by the Google News Initiative Innovation Challenge.16 https:/languageplease.org/25CHANGING NEWSROOMS 2022:MEDIA LEADERS EMBRACE HYBRID WORK DESPITE CHALLENGESDifferent Perspectives,by Swedish Radio,SwedenAt Swedish Radio,fostering diversity can take different shapes in different teams or departments,Julia Blomberg,Diversity and Inclusion Coordinator,told us.She explained that the organisation conducts a gap analysis to identify what different perspectives and competences are needed to enhance each division.It can be gender,it can be ethnicity,it can be age,it can be different skills,we dont focus on any special area,its different for every department,she said.Blomberg explained that since 2021,SRs strategy has been focused on three different areas.First,aiming to deliver credible and impartial content to their audience every day;second,to consciously recruit people with different perspective and skills that will be reflected in the content produced;and third to ensure that everyone inside the organisation is contributing to an inclusive and learning workplace culture.On the content side,SRs aim is to increase their journalistic presence throughout the entire country.Theyve done so by setting up pop-up newsrooms in 290 municipalities across Sweden to make new connections and get more perspectives and voices from the people living there.We educate our staff in mapping out demographics so that we can cover more areas and make journalism more relevant to our audience,Blomberg explained.In terms of talent acquisition,a new recruitment team works alongside hiring managers to help them advertise and recruit roles,with a long-term view of filling the gaps that the gap analysis identified.We also started a training programme this summer for people without a journalistic degree but with different or specific language skills that we really need,especially for the minority languages in Sweden,she continued.Crucially,Blomberg told us,fostering diversity goes beyond recruitment and requires creating a workplace culture that makes sure that new talent wants to stay and thrive inside the organisation.We work a lot with leadership or self-leadership trainings,we run unconscious bias training and we develop different toolboxes with team building exercises about feedback calibrations,psychological safety,and so on.THE REUTERS INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF JOURNALISM26ConclusionWere in a time of great possibilities:newsrooms have the chance to reset how they work;re-align staff on their organisations purpose and vision;invest in finding a diverse talent that represents the audiences they want to reach and serve;and focus on nurturing and retaining that talent by creating an inclusive workplace culture.During the COVID-19 pandemic,employees proved that many of their tasks could be done remotely.Two years on,our study shows that news organisations have embraced hybrid and flexible working,but they are still figuring out how to best implement it while seeking a balance between individual needs and business needs.There is no going back to a time where hybrid work is not part of our lives,one interviewee told us,so newsrooms should use the opportunity to re-assess what they missed during the time of enforced remote working social and personal relationships,a shared sense of purpose,the ability to collectively define and shape newsroom culture,the sharing of learnings provided by people working together across different generations,levels of expertise and skillsets and intentionally planning for it.A key issue will be to persuade staff of the value and purpose of going back to the office.The report highlighted the additional pressure managers and particularly middle managers have been put under,as the ones tasked with implementing hybrid models,while following strategic business priorities and trying to strengthen the social fabric of the organisation.Our survey participants told us that hybrid and flexible working is an issue raised by job candidates and in many cases an expectation when hiring new talent.Many industry leaders see in this the opportunity to broaden the pool of talent they can reach and a chance to increase their ability to hire a more diverse workforce and have a positive impact on their diversity,equity and inclusion strategies.Whether this will become a reality is still to be seen.Still,retaining that talent is seen as a harder task.Managers in our survey talk about a sense of disconnect among their staff and the fear that hybrid and flexible working is leading to a weaking sense of belonging to the organisation.Improving the talent pipeline and focusing on talent acquisition is also often mentioned as part of the initiatives news organisations are undertaking in the pursuit of their diversity goals.Yet,even in the recognition that the topic is a complex and nuanced one,which varies greatly country by country,society by society,it is not at all clear that news media generally have built more truly inclusive workplace cultures.While some organisations look like they are making some progress and several new initiatives have been introduced,for all the talk,it is not clear that substantial progress is being made by the industry overall.The challenges of how to successfully embrace hybrid and flexible working while also significantly improving the diversity of the workforce remain significant,and they are not made easier by the backdrop of rising costs of living,wars,conflicts and social tensions around the world,increasing limitations to press freedom in some countries,and declining trust levels from the audience(Newman et al.2022).Meaningful journalism is the product of brave and 27CHANGING NEWSROOMS 2022:MEDIA LEADERS EMBRACE HYBRID WORK DESPITE CHALLENGESdedicated journalists,supported by organisations that focus on investing in and nurturing their talent and promoting inclusive workplace cultures.While they cover developments in the world,newsrooms should make sure they dont forget to evolve with that world.List of IntervieweesPositions held at the time of the interviewsJulia Blomberg,Diversity and Inclusion Coordinator,Swedish Radio,SwedenNaresh Fernandes,Editor and Founder,Scroll,IndiaStefan Mair,Head of Newsroom Coaching for EqualVoice,Ringier,SwitzerlandSandra E Martin,Head of Newsroom Development,Globe and Mail,CanadaArmando Mayorga,Managing Editor,La Nacin,Costa RicaTom Miller,Chief Transformation Officer,DC Thomson,UKMpho Raborife,Managing Editor,News24,South Africa THE REUTERS INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF JOURNALISM28Survey MethodologyThis report is based on a survey of a strategic sample of newsroom leaders from around the world.The questionnaire was sent directly by the author to individual potential respondents.It included both a set of closed questions and open-ended fields for respondents to share their experiences.Target participants were selected because they hold senior positions in a wide range of different traditional or digital-born publishing companies operating in different countries.The results reflect this strategic sample of select news industry leaders,not a representative sample.Because of the size and nature of the sample we report only top-line findings here,and no breakdowns or comparisons.The survey was completed by 136 individuals from 39 countries between 27 September and 28 October 2022.Participants hold senior positions in editorial,commercial,and product.Typical job titles included Editor-in-Chief/Executive Editor,CEO,Digital Director,Managing Editor,and Deputy Editor.Figure 15.Participants and countries surveyedBase=136 individuals from 39 countries between 27 September and 28 October 2022.Survey country mix(%)UKUSGermanyFranceSpainItalySouth AfricaSwedenNetherlandsBelgiumBrazilArgentinaColombiaDenmarkOther16%9%7%6%4%4%3%3%3%3%2%2%2$%Survey country mix(%)29CHANGING NEWSROOMS 2022:MEDIA LEADERS EMBRACE HYBRID WORK DESPITE CHALLENGESBase=136 individuals from 39 countries between 27 September and 28 October 2022.Of these participants,57 were from organisations with a print background(42%),52 came from digital-born media(38%),18 came from commercial or public service broadcasters(13%),and a further five from news agencies and two podcast companies.While the survey was sent to news industry leaders in many different countries,the majority of the respondents are from the Global North,and most of them work in mid-size and large organisations.Our results thus do not fully capture the often very different situation faced by small organisations and those operating in poor and/or authoritarian countries.Women accounted for 46%of respondents,men 54%.Participants filled out an online survey with specific questions around flexible and hybrid working,talent,and diversity in 2022.Around 95%answered all questions,although response rates varied.The majority contributed comments and ideas in open questions and some of these are quoted with permission in this report.Survey job titles(no.)Editors-in-chief/Executive editorsCEO/Publisher/General DirectorDeputy EditorsDigital Directors/CDOsManaging EditorAudience editorsOthers29281073356Survey job titles(no.)THE REUTERS INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF JOURNALISM30ReferencesBorchardt,A.,Lck,J.,Kieslich,S.,Schultz,T.,Simon,F.M.2019.Are Journalists Todays Coal Miners?Oxford:Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism.Capossela,C.2022.To Get People Back in the Office,Make It Social,Harvard Business Review,22 September,https:/hbr.org/2022/09/to-get-people-back-in-the-office-make-it-social(Accessed 31 October 2022).Cherubini,F.,Newman,N.,Nielsen,R.K.2020.Changing Newsrooms 2020:Addressing Diversity and Nurturing Talent at a Time of Unprecedented Change.Oxford:Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism.Cherubini,F.,Newman,N.,Nielsen,R.K.2021.Changing Newsrooms 2021:Hybrid Working and Improving Diversity Remain Twin Challenges for Publishers.Oxford:Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism.Eddy,K.,Nielsen,R.K.2022a.Women and Leadership in the News Media 2022:Evidence from 12 Markets.Oxford:Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism.Eddy,K.,Nielsen,R.K.2022b.Race and Leadership in the News Media 2022:Evidence from Five Markets.Oxford:Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism.Future Forum Pulse.2022.Executives Feel the Strain of Leading in the New Normal,October,https:/Are Trapped in a PerformanceCompassion Dilemma,Harvard Business Review,7 April,https:/hbr.org/2022/04/managers-are-trapped-in-a-performance-compassion-dilemma(Accessed 31 October 2022).Jacobs,E.2022.Middle Managers On the New Front Line of Office Life,Financial Times,19 September,https:/31 October 2022).New York Times.2021.A Call to Action:Building a Culture That Works for All of Us.https:/31 October 2022).Robertson,K.2021.New York Times Calls for Workplace Changes in Diversity Report,New York Times,24 February,https:/31 October 2022).31CHANGING NEWSROOMS 2022:MEDIA LEADERS EMBRACE HYBRID WORK DESPITE CHALLENGESSELECTED RISJ REPORTS AND FACTSHEETSBorn in the Fire:What We Can Learn from How Digital Publishers in the Global South Approach PlatformsRasmus Kleis Nielsen and Federica CherubiniThe Trust Gap:How and Why News on Digital Platforms Is Viewed More Sceptically Versus News in GeneralCamila MontAlverne,Sumitra Badrinathan,Amy Ross Arguedas,Benjamin Toff,Richard Fletcher,and Rasmus Kleis NielsenReuters Institute Digital News Report 2022Nic Newman,Richard Fletcher,Craig T.Robertson,Kirsten Eddy,and Rasmus Kleis NielsenRace and Leadership in the News Media 2022:Evidence from Five MarketsKirsten Eddy,Meera Selva,and Rasmus Kleis Nielsen(Factsheet)Women and Leadership in the News Media 2022:Evidence from Twelve MarketsKirsten Eddy,Meera Selva,and Rasmus Kleis Nielsen(Factsheet)Snap Judgements:How Audiences Who Lack Trust in News Navigate Information on Digital PlatformsAmy Ross Arguedas,Sumitra Badrinathan,Camila MontAlverne,Benjamin Toff,Richard Fletcher,and Rasmus Kleis NielsenEcho Chambers,Filter Bubbles,and Polarisation:A Literature ReviewAmy Ross Arguedas,Craig T.Robertson,Richard Fletcher,and Rasmus Kleis NielsenJournalism,Media,and Technology Trends and Predictions 2022Nic NewmanDepth and Breadth:How News Organisations RISJ PUBLICATIONSSELECTED BOOKSHearts and Minds:Harnessing Leadership,Culture,and Talent to Really Go DigitalLucy KuengWorlds of Journalism:Journalistic Cultures Around the GlobeThomas Hanitzsch,Folker Hanusch,Jyotika Ramaprasad,and Arnold S.de Beer(eds)(published with Columbia University Press)NGOs as Newsmakers:The Changing Landscape of International News Matthew Powers(published with Columbia University Press)Global Teamwork:The Rise of Collaboration in Investigative JournalismRichard Sambrook(ed)Journalism and the NSA Revelations:Privacy,Security and the PressRisto Kunelius,Heikki Heikkil,Adrienne Russell and Dmitry Yagodin(eds)(published with I.B.Tauris)Something Old,Something New:Digital Media and the Coverage of Climate ChangeJames Painter et al.Journalism in an Age of Terror John Lloyd(published with I.B.Tauris)The Right to Be Forgotten:Privacy and the Media in the Digital AgeGeorge Brock(published with I.B.Tauris)The Kidnapping of Journalists:Reporting from High-Risk Conflict Zones Robert G.Picard and Hannah Storm(published with I.B.Tauris)Innovators in Digital NewsLucy Kueng(published with I.B.Tauris)Local Journalism:The Decline of Newspapers and the Rise of Digital MediaRasmus Kleis Nielsen(ed)(published with I.B.Tauris)Journalism and PR:News Media and Public Relations in the Digital AgeJohn Lloyd and Laura Toogood(published with I.B.Tauris)Reporting the EU:News,Media and the European InstitutionsJohn Lloyd and Cristina Marconi(published with I.B.Tauris)THE REUTERS INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF JOURNALISM32Navigate Trade-Offs Around Building Trust in News Benjamin Toff,Sumitra Badrinathan,Camila MontAlverne,Amy Ross Arguedas,Richard Fletcher,and Rasmus Kleis NielsenOvercoming Indifference:What Attitudes Towards News Across the Global North and South Tell Us About Building TrustBenjamin Toff,Sumitra Badrinathan,Camila MontAlverne,Amy Ross Arguedas,Richard Fletcher,and Rasmus Kleis NielsenAn Ongoing Infodemic:How People in Eight Countries Access and Rate News and Information About Coronavirus a Year into the PandemicRasmus Kleis Nielsen,Anne Schulz,and Richard FletcherListening to What Trust in News Means to Users:Qualitative Evidence from Four CountriesBenjamin Toff,Sumitra Badrinathan,Camila MontAlverne,Amy Ross Arguedas,Richard Fletcher,and Rasmus Kleis NielsenWomen and News:An Overview of Audience Behaviour in 11 CountriesMeera Selva and Simge AndWhat We Think We Know and What We Want to Know:Perspectives on Trust in News in a Changing WorldBenjamin Toff,Sumitra Badrinathan,Camila MontAlverne,Amy Ross Arguedas,Richard Fletcher,and Rasmus Kleis NielsenDaily News Podcasts:Building New Habits in the Shadow of CoronavirusNic Newman and Nathan GalloFew Winners,Many Losers:The COVID-19 Pandemics Dramatic and Unequal Impact on Independent News MediaRasmus Kleis Nielsen,Federica Cherubini,and Simge AndChanging Newsrooms 2020:Addressing Diversity and Nurturing Talent at a Time of Unprecedented ChangeFederica Cherubini,Nic Newman,and Rasmus Kleis NielsenCommunications in the Coronavirus Crisis:Lessons for the Second Wave Rasmus Kleis Nielsen,Richard Fletcher,Antonis Kalogeropoulos,and Felix M.SimonInformation Inequality in the UK Coronavirus Communications CrisisRichard Fletcher,Antonis Kalogeropoulos,Felix M.Simon,and Rasmus Kleis NielsenPublish Less,but Publish Better:Pivoting to Paid in Local NewsJoy JenkinsVolume and Patterns of Toxicity in Social Media Conversations during the COVID-19 PandemicSlvia Maj-Vzquez,Rasmus Kleis Nielsen,Joan Verd,Nandan Rao,Manlio de Domenico,and Omiros Papaspiliopoulos(Factsheet)Are News Outlets Viewed in the Same Way by Experts and the Public?A Comparison across 23 European CountriesAnne Schulz,Richard Fletcher,and Marina Popescu(Factsheet)Types,Sources,and Claims of COVID-19 MisinformationJ.Scott Brennen,Felix M.Simon,Philip N.Howard,and Rasmus Kleis Nielsen(Factsheet)Industry,Expert,or Industry Experts?Academic Sourcing in News Coverage of AIJ.Scott Brennen,Anne Schulz,Philip N.Howard,and Rasmus Kleis Nielsen(Factsheet)Old,Educated,and Politically Diverse:The Audience of Public Service NewsAnne Schulz,David A.L.Levy,and Rasmus Kleis Nielsen 33CHANGING NEWSROOMS 2022:MEDIA LEADERS EMBRACE HYBRID WORK DESPITE CHALLENGESCover photo:AFP

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McKinsey：Metaverse：推动移动的未来（engelsk 版）(9 sider).pdf

Automotive&Assembly PracticeThe metaverse:Driving value in the mobility sectorAlthough a fully immersive,interconnected metaverse remains years away,mobility stakeholders can already capture real business value from the technologies designed to enable it.This article is a collaborative effort by Kersten Heineke,Hamza Khan,Timo Mller,Dennis Schwedhelm,Shivam Srivastava,and Felix Ziegler,representing views from McKinseys Automotive&Assembly Practice.January 2023 Jason marz/Getty ImagesRiding in a car is a very physical experience,from gripping the steering wheel to pressing down the gas pedal to feeling a jolt if the vehicle suddenly stops.One day,people may experience these same sensations by taking a virtual ride in the metaversethe next iteration of the internet in which people can immerse themselves in a digital world that closely mimics reality.The full-fledged metaverse will likely require at least five to ten years to materialize,but stakeholders in the mobility sector can already capture real business value from the“proto-metaverse.”This early incarnation relies on spatial computing and extended reality(XR),which is an umbrella term that includes augmented reality(AR),virtual reality(VR),and mixed reality(MR).The proto-metaverse has already enhanced both sales and operations within the mobility sector,and many leading OEMs and other stakeholders are launching metaverse initiatives to explore their benefits to the core business.This article examines how selected technologies,available today or in the near future,can help expand and diversify revenue streams in the mobility sector,enhance brand loyalty,improve customer experience,and optimize production.(For a more comprehensive look at current and future technologies,see sidebar“Mobility moves toward the metaverse.”)Going forward,could OEMs increase brand awareness with applications that let potential car buyers participate in highly realistic virtual races at Le Mans?Or could technicians walk customers through easy repairs at home using virtual twins of engines?Such experiences could be possible if the metaverse continues to advance.But even before the advent of such immersive experiences,OEMs still have much to gain from metaverse tools and concepts.Kicking virtual tires:Customers in the metaverseIn a recent McKinsey consumer survey,59 percent of respondents say that they prefer to conduct at least one daily activity,such as socializing,shopping,fitness,or education,in the virtual world rather than in person.1 Another survey also indicates that excitement about the future metaverse is consistently high across demographic groups,regardless of region,age,or gender.2These findings bode well for greater use of metaverse-related experiences and technologies over the next few years,as do other recent developments.For instance,the market value of XR devices is expected to increase nearly tenfold,from$28 billion in 2021 to more than$250 billion in 2028.3The metaverse showroom:Just a click awayMany potential car buyers now research vehicles online before buying,which partly explains why US consumers in 2017 visited only two dealerships before making a purchase,down from five in 2007.4 The pandemic has reduced the odds that potential buyers will find their vehicle of choice on the lot,however,because of supply chain disruptions.OEMs may partly compensate for the lack of inventory by using immersive virtual experiences to help potential buyers envision and configure their desired vehicles.These new technologies go far beyond websites that allow users to click on different vehicle features to get information or cycle through custom options.RelayCars,for example,offers a mobile application with AR and 3-D visuals that allow users to explore thousands of cars.But even with more sophisticated online tools,the average car buyer will still want to see an actual car before making a purchase,since even the best online images may not provide the clarity and detail that a car buyer needs.1“Value creation in the metaverse,”McKinsey,June 14,2022.2 Ibid.3“Global augmented and virtual reality market size,”Statista,accessed December 2,2002.4 GoogleTNS Auto Shopper Study,2016;“Innovating automotive retail,”McKinsey,February 1,2014.2The metaverse:Driving value in the mobility sectorBeyond sales,a few OEMs are creating digital worlds designed to engage the brand community,rather than delivering anything close to the actual driving and buying experience.For instance,Acura has opened a virtual showroom in Decentraland,a virtual-reality platform,to introduce customers to its 2023 Integra model.Potential car buyers can walk through the dealership and engage in interactive experiences,including racing cars virtually.The first 500 customers who reserved a 2023 Acura Integra also had the opportunity to receive a nonfungible token(NFT)of the vehicle.Similarly,Skoda has Mobility moves toward the metaverseExhibitExamples of potential metaverse use casesMany use cases for the metaverse are emerging along the mobility value chain.McKinsey&CompanyConsumer use casesProduct engineering and designManufac-turing andprocurementMarketing andsalesProduct life cycle and mobility operationsProduct design enhanced by extended-reality(XR)technologiesVirtualtesting of automated vehiclesVirtualproduct engineering Virtualfacility walk-throughs and visitsCustomer XR-enabled participationDigital twins and XR-enabled sides Virtual showrooms/dealerships as next gen-eration fron-tierVirtual infu-encers and virtual sales supportBranded digitalassetsVirtual mobility itinerary planningVirtual branded experiencesIn-carentertain-ment and infotainmentXR-enabled repairs and maintenance Live immer-sive eventsVirtual 3-D assistant Real-time observation and analysisExclusive access todigital membershipsVirtualupgrades of accessoriesCustomer supportOperations use casesThe following exhibit explores some of the most important emerging opportunities related to the metaverse.3The metaverse:Driving value in the mobility sectorcreated an experience called Skodaverse,which allows users to take test drives resembling those in a video game or visit their NFT gallery,which has various commissioned artworks.Mobility players have also started to create avatars to serve as virtual salespeople,influencers,or brand ambassadors.Porsche,for instance,has used virtual brand ambassadors in China to attract younger customers.5Creating the future metaverse experience.These early attempts to link the virtual and physical worlds may evolve into more immersive experiences.Improvements in XR,combined with the advent of haptic devices that simulate a touching sensation,could allow consumers to examine a highly realistic replica of a vehicleopening its doors,feeling its seats,accelerating onto a highwayjust as they would with a real car.Initially,advanced virtual shopping experiences are likely to occur at dealerships or trade shows rather than in customers homes because OEMs are more likely to purchase the expensive devices required to enable this kind of immersive virtual world(Exhibit1).As consumer adoption of XR devices increases,however,virtual experiences could be more readily available in peoples homes.If even more advanced body sensors and other technologies emerge,customers might be able to undertake highly realistic test drives in which they simulate multiple activities,including merging into traffic or backing into their own garage.For marketing,OEMs may be able to enhance consumer engagement by creating truly unique customer experiences6 that would not be possible in real lifefor example,hosting a launch event in a virtual forest to highlight the usage of sustainable materials or allowing consumers to race their new cars virtually to highlight the heritage of a sports car brand.(For more on the advantages of using these tools,see sidebar“Marketing and sales benefits from the metaverse.”)The car as home theater:Better infotainment,entertainment,and driver assistance optionsA few OEMs have already created or plan to launch driver assistance applications that rely on metaverse tools.Most new Mercedes-Benz models,for example,offer heads-up-display technology,which shows digital information on a cars 5 Stefan Mayr-Uhlmann,“Virtual influencers in the automotive industry,”Porsche Newsroom,February 24,2022.6“Marketing in the metaverse:An opportunity for innovation and experimentation,”McKinsey Quarterly,May 24,2022.Exhibit 1Exhibit of How the metaverse could be used by dealerships,trade shows,or customers at home Experiences in the metaverse could soon help enhance vehicle sales.McKinsey&CompanyCustomers could use virtual-reality or augmented-reality technologies to inspect and customize vehicles;this is likely to occur frst at dealerships and trade shows and later at peoples homesVirtual test drives may eventually be possibleCustomers may be able to engage with AI-generated salespeople or infuencers or participate in virtual community events enhanced by the metaverse4The metaverse:Driving value in the mobility sectorwindshield,such as speed,GPS directions,cruise control settings,and current traffic conditions.7 The technology company HERE,working in conjunction with Unity Technologies,is creating a dashboard screen that includes a 3-D map of a vehicles surrounding area.Drivers can see where they are on the screen;as the vehicle moves,information and alerts about the surrounding area,such as nearby businesses,pop up to notify the driver.New infotainment packages are also emerging(Exhibit 2).The company holoride,founded in 2018,is creating hyperimmersive experiences for riders.One of its packages,available now to Audi customers,includes a VR headset and a game that allows passengers to move through a 3-D-landscape.8 The motion in the game matches that of the vehiclefor instance,virtual objects approach much more quickly when the car speeds up.Future applications.More advanced driver assistance systems using AR may soon be available that increase safety by providing additional data,such as information about upcoming road hazards or pedestrian traffic.The metaverse could also enable new and better entertainment options as technologies advance.WayRays Holograktor,an upcoming vehicle for the ride-hailing market,is being designed to have metaverse-related applications for both driver assistance and entertainment.9 The vehicle will 7 Fred Meier,“Which cars have head-up displays?,”C,June 29,2022.8“Holoride:Virtual reality meets the real world,”Audi,March 12,2022.9 Michael Taylor,“Holographic breakthrough in the Wayray Holograktor could disrupt car interior design,”Forbes,November 30,2021.Marketing and sales benefits of the metaverseMajor marketing and sales efforts linked to the metaverse include the following:Enhanced outreach,efficiency,and engagement.Extended-reality(XR)technologies,such as augmented reality,virtual reality,and mixed reality,can enable OEMS to connect with more target customers more easily and quickly since geographic constraints no longer apply.These technologies also can help increase brand awareness among new consumers.Greater online sales and lower costs.XR tools may result in less foot traffic at dealerships and higher online sales,which are less costly than in-person transactions.We estimate that online vehicle sales will account for 20 to 25percent of total sales by 2025,1 and XR technologies could help with this transition.OEMs that focus on online sales and have a lower dealership presence have been able to reduce sales expenses to 7 to 8percent of total costs,compared with an industry average of 12 to 15percent(without discounts).Better data collection.OEMs already use data that are collected onlinefor instance,information about a customers preferred vehicle featuresto make personalized recommendations and offers.In the future,metaverse applications may provide even more detailed insights by examining certain behaviors,such as eye and body movements,to determine a buyers level of interest.2 Of course,such data usage also comes with privacy challenges that must be properly addressed.3 Improved training.OEMs can use XR technologies to train large numbers of salespeople on both existing and future vehicles.1 Michele Bertoncello,Christopher Martens,Timo Mller,and Tobias Schneiderbauer,“Unlocking full life-cycle value from connected-car data,”McKinsey,February 11,2021.2 Christine Chong et al.,“Is it time for a test drive in the metaverse?,”National Law Review,July 5,2022.3 Ibid.5The metaverse:Driving value in the mobility sectoruse sensors and cameras to process data and project AR holograms on various vehicle windows,displaying information about nearby points of interest such as restaurant offers or sales at stores.The technology will also allow passengers to use the AR holograms to play video games.New infotainment opportunities could transform how people spend their time in cars,especially if autonomous vehicles gain ground.Imagine parents who need to commute to work and transport their children to school via ridesharing or robo shuttle services.While in transit,the child could engage with immersive educational applications while the parents plan dinner for the evening.Or,during downtime in traffic jams,riders in autonomous vehicles could use VR devices to be more present in virtual meeting rooms.McKinsey research suggests that in-car entertainment could generate between$30 billion and$60 billion in value by 2030.Virtual vehicles,real solutions:The metaverse in manufacturing and maintenanceBeyond enhancing sales and the customer experience,the metaverse is already enabling OEMs to improve vehicle design,production,and servicing.Back to the drawing board:Virtual vehicle designTraditional automotive design typically starts with 2-D sketches of a vehicle.OEMs then use computer-aided design software to create high-quality 3-D models based on the original sketches.Exhibit 2Technologies that form the metaverse could help improve driver assistance,in-car passenger infotainment,and passenger entertainment.Vehicles will use augmented-reality(AR)technology to display information,including vehicle speed and navigation assistance,on car windshields Passengers may eventually be able to browse through a list of immersive applicationsVehicles will use virtual reality,AR,and other technologies to enhance immersive entertainment and infotainment for passengersMcKinsey&Company6The metaverse:Driving value in the mobility sectorIn a departure from this process,some OEMs are attempting to streamline design and reduce quality issues with XR tools.For instance,designers at Ford are experimenting with Gravity Sketch,a tool that creates 3-D renderings of vehicles that are viewable with headsets.Hyundai has also transformed its design process,which used to take between four weeks and two months,with 3-D-design software and AR tools that facilitate collaboration.Once designers are satisfied with their initial designs,they create a clay model and begin working on the vehicles interior.10 Wearing special VR visors,designers can also see vehicles in different settings,ranging from a desert to a wet road.In addition to designing cars online,companies are using virtual worlds for enhanced vehicle testing.Nvidias DRIVE Sim platform evaluates autonomous vehicles by generating simulations of different environmentssuch as highways or crowded urban roadsthat test the vehicles perception systems,decision-making capabilities,and control logic.Among other benefits,the platform reduces testing costs and allows Nvidia to investigate the performance of autonomous vehicles in more diverse environments and situations that might be difficult to replicate and assess in real life.Future metaverse applications.Aligning stakeholders on vehicle aesthetics,aerodynamics,and other features,such as materials,is not always easy,but immersive virtual environments could help teams resolve conflicts about product requirements,output,and other issues by allowing them to experiment rapidly with virtual models,exactly as they would with real materials and models.They could study how light would reflect off a mirror,experience a vehicles interior acoustics,or see what the chassis would look like before one is built.The future metaverse might also allow OEMs to involve car buyers more closely in the vehicle development process by holding events that allow customers to examine virtual models.This could reduce timelines for vehicle production,as well as decrease budgets invested in focus groups,including those related to vehicle and participant transport.11 In addition to informing design choices about models under development,such technologies could provide OEMs with continuous feedback that informs later R&D efforts.For example,engineers could create a digital twin of a cara realistic virtual representationto track the cars performance and collect real-time data,which could allow them to make tailored product updates for specific vehicles.Although transformations in digital product development may require an investment in the hundreds of millions,we estimate that companies might achieve a 10 to 12 percent EBIT uplift and a decrease of up to 50 percent in time to market.Virtual factory,real insights:Digital twins and moreOEMs are already using digital twins of factories and their production lines to improve vehicle manufacturing.BMW,for instance,is using Nvidias Omniverse platform to plan a new factory in which people and robots work closely together and engineers collaborate in a shared virtual space.12 The platform integrates information from various design and planning tools to generate extremely realistic images of the planned factory.The goal is to allow BMW to create complex production systems more quickly and accurately.Beyond optimizing a factory layout and processes,digital twins can help OEMs accelerate the launch of new assembly lines and provide guidance for factory-based technicians.They also can provide full visibility into software,hardware,manufacturing,and maintenance interdependencies.Our models 10 Edoardo Nastri,“Hyundai,augmented reality design,”Auto&Design,March 25,2022.11“How virtual reality is used for car design,”RelayCars,July 2,2021.12 Nvidia Blog,“NVIDIA,BMW blend reality,virtual worlds to demonstrate factory of the future,”blog entry by Brian Caulfield,April 13,2021.7The metaverse:Driving value in the mobility sectorsuggest that digital twins can potentially improve output by about 10 to 25 percent while reducing unplanned maintenance by 80 percent and increasing quality by up to 25 percent.In the future,digital twins will likely be even more realisticfor example,all engines and machines within a plant could be fully connected in the digital twin,sharing detailed performance information in real time.Repair and maintenanceOEMs can use metaverse tools to train automobile technicians and guide them through the repair process for a vehicle.Daimler Trucks North America,for example,recently experimented with a pilot to use AR technology at its dealerships to provide step-by-step training and guidance for service technicians.13 Similarly,wearable XR devices are currently being used in every BMW dealership in the United States.The metaverse can also help OEMs expand their service networks by making it easier to train and license third-party technicians in distant locations,as well as allow OEMS to better engage with customers throughout the life cycle of a vehicle.This capability may become even more critical in the future since talented technicians are in increasingly short supply.As technologies evolve,cars may collect and provide more information during the vehicle life cycle.Technicians could use these new tools to inspect a vehicles onboard data and then connect virtually with an AI-based avatar for joint diagnosis.13“DTNA tests augmented reality for future of aftermarket service,”Daimler Truck North America press release,February 4,2021.Exhibit 3ABCWearable extended-reality devices could improve the service process ofvehicles and assist with employee training.McKinsey&CompanyService technicians,including those at third parties,could receive training and guidance through extended-reality devicesTechnicians could inspect onboard vehicle data and connect online with OEM experts for joint diagnosis and to order partsTechnicians may be able to connect with customers at their homes to conduct virtual inspections and an initial diagnosisTechnicians could follow step-by-step instructions using augmented-reality technology8The metaverse:Driving value in the mobility sectorDesigned by McKinsey Global PublishingCopyright 2023 McKinsey&Company.All rights reserved.Kersten Heineke is a partner in McKinseys Frankfurt office;Hamza Khan is a partner in the London office;Timo Mller is a partner in the Cologne office;Dennis Schwedhelm is a senior expert and associate partner in the Munich office;and Shivam Srivastava is a partner in the Bay Area office,where Felix Ziegler is a consultant.The authors wish to thank to Michael Chang,Jacomo Corbo,Thomas Furcher,Andreas Glfke,Enes Gokkus,Eric Hazan,Philipp Maximilian Lhr,Ben Meigs,Adam Ridemar,Tobias Schneiderbauer,Stephen Schwab,and Chenan Xia for their contributions to this article.If an issue appears to have a relatively easy fix,OEMs might connect to customers directly and walk them through the repair process at home.In other cases,OEMs could direct customers to a third party for repairs.Our research indicates that using virtual technologies in servicing could increase revenues by 5 to 10 percent.OEMs and other mobility players can already generate substantial value today by adopting the metaverse,even if it delivers only a share of the full experience expected in the future.To create the greatest impact,companies can consider aligning on their business goals for metaverse applications while simultaneously considering future use cases,including essential skills and requirements for the underlying complex ecosystem.Some of the changes ahead may not be entirely positivefor instance,the metaverse could decrease travel,especially for businessbut the potential opportunities could more than compensate for such drawbacks.Scan Download PersonalizeFind more content like this on the McKinsey Insights App9The metaverse:Driving value in the mobility sector

6人看过 2023-02-10 9边 5星

DHL：2023年全球航运市场展望报告（英文版）（10页）.pdf

DOMINIQUE VON ORELLIEVGLOBAL HEAD OF SEA FREIGHTDHL Global Forwarding SEA FREIGHT MARKET OUTLOOK 2023 Excellence.Simply Deliver.PUBLICUNCLASSIFIED(PUBLIC) 内容海运市场展望 2023DHL 全球货运|OFR 市场展望 12.023| December 202221Economic2 OutlookaCIHSDemand Development3) Markit，现为 S&P Global 的一部分，2022 年第 4 季度更新，12 月 22 日 8 日；1) 经济展望 GDP 按地区分列的实际 GDP1) 通货膨胀（年度 U%） 世界因 COVID-19 大流行病、俄罗斯入侵乌克兰和能源成本上升。主要中央银行正在齐心协力通过提高利率和净资产出售来抑制通货膨胀。因此，经济状况正在收紧。家庭和企业消费 全球实际 GDP 增长预计将从 2021 年的 5.8% 放缓至 2022 年的 2.8% 和 2023 年的 1.4% 观察 DHL Global Forwarding|2023 年 OFR 市场展望| 2022 年 12 月 16 日 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026FCAGR(2023-26) AMER 2.2%0.2%1.5%2.0%2.1%1.9%ASPA 3.4%3.8%4, 6%4.3%4.8%100.6%4.8%10O。 1.9%MEA 5.0%3.1%3, 4%3, 3%3.0%3.2%DGF World2.8%1.4%2.8%3.0%2.9% 2.9%-101234567892018201720192024F2020202202020202020202020202020202020202020 2020203 2 JOJOJOJ22AJOJOJ22AJOJOJ22AJOJOJ22AJOJOJOJ22AJOJOJOJ22AJOJOJOJ22AJOJOJOJ22AJOJOJOJ22AJOJOJOJ22AJOJOJOJ22AJOJOJO2AJOJO2AJOJOJ22AJOJOJOJ22AJOJOJOJ2 JOJOJ22AJOJOJOJ22AJOJOJOJ22 T )2.6 mTEU 3.3%6 .7 mTEU 3.8% 2022 市场规模 20264 资料来源：Seabury 12 月 22 日。更新 N O R T M E R I C AI n c l.MEX I C O4.6 mTEU 1.8%1.6 mTEU 2.1% I 2.7 m. E. 2.1% I N. 5. l.M E X I C OL A T I NAME K E U R O P E U K L. M E D15.6 mTEU 3.1%4, 9 mTEU 1.5%3.6 mTEU 1.9#.8 mTEU 3.6%1.5 mTEU 2.7%6.3mTEU 4.2%F R A.U. .6 mTEU 3.0% LATIN NAME AND CONTENTS D L E A S T&N O R T H A F R I. EU 2022E 3.3GR 2023E 2026E3.2 MTEU 3.3%3.3 MTEU 3.1%I N T R A M E N A T2.4 全球转运 | 2023 年 OFR 市场展望 | 2022 年 12 月 16 日 UNCLASSIFIFFICACIO（公开）05001 502,5002,5002,500 2022e201920212023eCapacity51) Alphaliner;2)SeaIntelligenceCarriers 将大部分利润花在了集装箱船上。订单簿上约有 750 万标准箱，预计明年将有 230 万标准箱的新运力到达。因港口拥堵而受阻的运力作为瓶颈设施返回市场。新的 IMO 2023 规定将于 2023 年 1 月 1 日生效，可能会减少可用运力，因为船舶将闲置进行改造，而慢速航行将是低等级船舶适应要求的最简单方法。预计将实施空转、慢航、空转、报废和延迟交付等额外的运力控制措施。 022e220182022e2201820222 19202020212023e 2024eSCRAPPING(000 TEU)1) 订单簿与船队的比率（以 mTEU 和占船队的百分比计）)1)0OFHL 全球货运 32| December 2020102030400%5 0%OJJ22J21AOAOorderbook FleetUNCLASSIFIED(PUBLIC)IMO 2023 是国际海事组织针对全球航运制定的最新一套规则，该组织是负责确保国际航运安全和防止船舶造成海洋污染的联合国机构. IMO 2023 引入了三项新的合规措施，以减少运输船的二氧化碳排放。这些措施是 IMO 到 2030 年碳排放量比 2008 年减少 40% 和 2050 年减少 70% 的目标的一部分。与侧重于船舶设计参数的认证相比，CII 侧重于船舶在运营期间的实际排放量。 CII 衡量船舶运输货物的效率，并衡量每小时排放的二氧化碳量。海里和每承载量。从 2023 年起，船舶的二氧化碳排放量每年将被分类为 A（良好）至 E（差）。三年 D 级或一年 E 级的船舶必须实施纠正行动计划，通过各种措施降低其 CII 分类，例如： 降低航行速度 优化运营和物流 实施能效技术 使用替代碳（蓝色）或绿色无碳燃料床。潜在影响 据咨询集团 BV 称，到 2023 年，只有 30% 的集装箱船队将符合 EEXI 标准。这些船舶目前在 D 级或 E CII 级运行。这些是在亚洲、美国和亚洲、欧洲的水道上使用的主要船只。 EEXI 和 CII 都会对船舶运力产生负面影响，EEXI 通过要求船舶进行改装，CII 通过鼓励航运公司放慢速度，因为这是使评级不佳的船舶合规的最简单方法。IMO 2023：什么是关于做什么？ 6DHL 全球货运|OFR 2023 年市场展望|16。 2022 年 12 月 未分类（公开）航空公司在 2022 年达到创纪录的 2750 亿美元 需求放缓、产能过剩和利率下降将对未来的航空公司收入产生负面影响。航空公司正在采取反制措施，通过减少许多航线的运力并宣布普遍提价来限制降价。在经历了几年严重的供应链中断之后，该行业正在重新定位自己，并试图找到一种方法来驾驭新常态。 ObservationsMSCCMA CGMaersk-LloydCoscoONEevergreenHMM1002Zim6308465192740523751215921251941Yang Ming708current orderSource:1)Alphaliner0,2)USDicontainer) single-route, 2) USdicontainer) single-route, 2) US-Dincontainer, TEU (2)F0Y (1) 20202018%77% 94H% FY20216M20229M202258%WORLD CONTAINER INDEX(WCI)3 2023 年全球营销展望 | 12月16日2024, 00002.0006.00012.0008.00010.000q3Q1 21Q123Q2Q4Q122Q2Q3Q4AcTeacTealForeCUNCLASSIFICIFICATION (public) 消费者行为至少继续。限制运力流入稳定关税水平。由于预计不会出现严重中断，因此时间表的可靠性将进一步提高。可能会重组运营商格局和/或建立新的联盟。更加关注可持续物流将推动决策制定。可以提供承运人和运输灵活性的合作伙伴 确保在发生中断时有适当的交货时间。支持电子数据交换 考虑选择可持续的物流服务 鼓励与所选承运人建立长期合作伙伴关系 )免责声明10 本演示文稿包含前瞻性陈述。这些陈述基于管理层当前的预期或信念，并受各种因素和不确定性的影响，这些因素和不确定性可能导致实际结果与前瞻性陈述中描述的结果存在重大差异。其董事、高级职员、雇员或顾问或任何其他人均未就特定目的的准确性、完整性、及时性或适用性作出任何明示或暗示的陈述或保证。此处包含的意见和估计反映了 DHL 对截至指定日期可用信息的看法，此类意见如有更改，恕不另行通知。 DHL 或其任何子公司或附属于 DHL 的个人，对于因使用此处包含的信息（包括错误、遗漏或不准确之处，无论是疏忽还是其他）或任何进一步的沟通，即使 DHL 或任何其他人已被告知这种可能性。此处包含的信息不应被解释为购买或出售证券、期货合约、期权或其他金融工具的要约或要约邀请，或提供投资建议或服务。 DHL 全球货运|2023 年 OFR 市场展望|16。 2022 年 12 月

10人看过 2023-02-10 10边 5星

禾赛科技（HSAI）美股IPO前瞻-中国激光雷达一号第 1 部分（295 页）.pdf

2023/2/1tm2120356-19_f1-none-68.1878305shttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1861737/000110465923004072/tm2120356-19_f1.htm1/295 F-1 1 tm2120356-19_f1.htm F-1TABLE OF CONTENTSAs filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on January 17,2023 Registration No.333-SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION WASHINGTON,D.C.20549 FORM F-1REGISTRATION STATEMENT UNDER THE SECURITIES ACT OF 1933 Hesai Group(Exact name of Registrant as specified in its charter)Not Applicable(Translation of Registrants name into English)Cayman Islands 3569 Not Applicable (State or other jurisdiction of incorporation or organization)(Primary Standard Industrial Classification Code Number)(I.R.S.Employer Identification Number)9th Floor,Building L2-B 1588 Zhuguang Road,Qingpu District Shanghai 201702 Peoples Republic of China 86(21)3158-8240(Address,including zip code,and telephone number,including area code,of Registrants principal executive offices)Cogency Global Inc.122 East 42nd Street,18th Floor New York,NY 10168(800)221-0102(Name,address,including zip code,and telephone number,including area code,of agent for service)Copies to:Yuting Wu,Esq.Skadden,Arps,Slate,Meagher&Flom LLP JingAn Kerry Centre,Tower II,46/F 1539 Nanjing West Road Shanghai,the Peoples Republicof China 86 21-6193-8200 Shu Du,Esq.Skadden,Arps,Slate,Meagher&Flom LLP c/o 42/F,Edinburgh Tower,TheLandmark 15 Queens Road Central Hong Kong 852 3740-4700 Brian V.Breheny,Esq.Skadden,Arps,Slate,Meagher&Flom LLP and Affiliates 1440 New York Avenue,N.W.Washington,D.C.United States 1 202-371-7000 Allen Wang,Esq.Latham&Watkins LLP 18th Floor,One Exchange Square 8 Connaught Place,Central Hong Kong 852 2912 2500 Approximate date of commencement of proposed sale to the public:as soon as practicable after the effective date of this registration statement.If any of the securities being registered on this Form are to be offered on a delayed or continuous basis pursuant to Rule 415 under theSecurities Act of 1933,check the following box.If this Form is filed to register additional securities for an offering pursuant to Rule 462(b)under the Securities Act,please check thefollowing box and list the Securities Act registration statement number of the earlier effective registration statement for the same offering.If this Form is a post-effective amendment filed pursuant to Rule 462(c)under the Securities Act,check the following box and list theSecurities Act registration statement number of the earlier effective registration statement for the same offering.If this Form is a post-effective amendment filed pursuant to Rule 462(d)under the Securities Act,check the following box and list theSecurities Act registration statement number of the earlier effective registration statement for the same offering.Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933.Emerging growth company If an emerging growth company that prepares its financial statements in accordance with U.S.GAAP,indicate by check mark if theregistrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards providedpursuant to Section 7(a)(2)(B)of the Securities Act.The Registrant hereby amends this Registration Statement on such date or dates as may be necessary to delay its effective date until theRegistrant shall file a further amendment which specifically states that this Registration Statement shall thereafter become effective in accordancewith Section 8(a)of the Securities Act of 1933 or until the Registration Statement shall become effective on such date as the Securities andExchange Commission,acting pursuant to said Section 8(a),may determine.The term“new or revised financial accounting standard”refers to any update issued by the Financial Accounting Standards Board to itsAccounting Standards Codification after April 5,2012.2023/2/1tm2120356-19_f1-none-68.1878305shttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1861737/000110465923004072/tm2120356-19_f1.htm2/295TABLE OF CONTENTSPRELIMINARY PROSPECTUS(Subject to Completion)Dated ,2023American Depositary SharesHesai GroupRepresenting Class B Ordinary SharesThis is an initial public offering of American depositary shares,or ADSs,of Hesai Group.We are offering ADSs.Each ADS represents of our Class B ordinary shares,par value$0.0001per share.We anticipate the initial public offering price per ADS will be between US$and US$.Prior to this offering,there has been no public market for the ADSs or our Class B ordinary shares.We intend to applyfor the listing of the ADSs on the Nasdaq Stock Market under the symbol“HSAI.”Following the completion of this offering,our issued and outstanding share capital will consist of Class A ordinaryshares and Class B ordinary shares.Holders of Class A ordinary shares and Class B ordinary shares have the same rightsexcept for voting and conversion rights.Each Class A ordinary share is entitled to ten votes and is convertible into oneClass B ordinary share,and each Class B ordinary share is entitled to one vote.Class B ordinary shares are not convertibleinto Class A ordinary shares under any circumstances.See“Description of Share Capital.”Following the completion of thisoffering,our executive officers and directors,Dr.Yifan Li,Dr.Kai Sun,Mr.Shaoqing Xiang,Mr.Louis T.Hsieh,Ms.CailianYang,Ms.Bonnie Zhang and,will beneficially own%,%,%,%,%,%and%of our total ordinary shares on an as-converted basis and%,%,%,%,%,%and%of the aggregated voting power,respectively,and,as a group,will beneficially own%of ourtotal ordinary shares on an as-converted basis and%of the aggregated voting power.Our principal shareholders,ALBJLimited,Fermat Star Limited,Galbadia Limited,Lightspeed Opportunity,Lightspeed China Partners,Baidu Holdings,Bosch,Xiaomi and Yuanzhan,will beneficially own%,%,%,%,%,%,%,%,and%of our total ordinary shares on an as-converted basis and%,%,%,%,%,%,%,%,and%of the aggregated voting power,respectively,and,as a group,willbeneficially own%of our total ordinary shares on an as-converted basis and%of the aggregated voting power.See“Principal Shareholders.”We are an“emerging growth company”under applicable U.S.federal securities laws and are eligible for reduced publiccompany reporting requirements.Hesai Group is not a Chinese operating company,but a Cayman Islands holding company with operations mainlyconducted by its subsidiaries based in China,and to a lesser extent by its subsidiaries based in the United States andelsewhere.This structure involves unique risks to investors.For more details,see“Risk Factors Risks Related to DoingBusiness in China Uncertainties exist with respect to how the PRC Foreign Investment Law may impact the viability of ourcurrent corporate structure and operations.”We face various legal and operational risks and uncertainties associated withbeing based in and having the majority of our operations in China and the complex and evolving PRC laws and regulations.For example,we face risks associated with the fact that the PRC government has significant authority in regulating ouroperations and may influence or intervene in our operations at any time,regulatory approvals on offerings conducted overseasby,and foreign investment in,China-based issuers,anti-monopoly regulatory actions,and oversight on data security,whichmay impact our ability to conduct certain businesses,accept foreign investments,or list on a United States exchange.OnDecember 16,2021,the PCAOB issued its report notifying the SEC of its determination that it was unable to inspect orinvestigate completely registered public accounting firms headquartered in mainland China or Hong Kong,including ourauditor.Under the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act,or the HFCAA,if the SEC determines that we have filedaudit reports issued by a registered public accounting firm that has not been subject to inspections for two consecutive years,the SEC shall prohibit our shares or ADSs from being traded on a national securities exchange or in the over the countertrading market in the U.S.The delisting of our ADSs,or the threat of their being delisted,may materially and adversely affectthe value of your investment.These risks could result in a material adverse change in our operations and the value of ourADSs,significantly limit or hinder our ability to offer or continue to offer securities to investors,or cause the value of suchsecurities to significantly decline or become worthless.Furthermore,on December 2,2021,the SEC adopted finalamendments implementing the disclosure and submission requirements under the HFCAA,pursuant to which the SEC willidentify a“Commission-Identified Issuer”if an issuer has filed an annual report containing an audit report issued by aregistered public accounting firm that the PCAOB has determined it is unable to inspect or investigate completely because ofa position taken by an authority in the foreign jurisdiction,and will then impose a trading prohibition on an issuer after it isidentified as a Commission-Identified Issuer for two consecutive years.On December 15,2022,the PCAOB issued a reportthat vacated its December 16,2021 determination and removed mainland China and Hong Kong from the list of jurisdictionswhere it is unable to inspect or investigate completely registered public accounting firms.Each year,the PCAOB willdetermine whether it can inspect and investigate completely audit firms in mainland China and Hong Kong,among otherjurisdictions.If the PCAOB determines in the future that it no longer has full access to inspect and investigate completelyaccounting firms in mainland China and Hong Kong and we continue to use an accounting firm headquartered in one of thesejurisdictions to issue an audit report on our financial statements filed with the SEC,we would be identified as a Commission-Identified Issuer following the filing of the annual report on Form 20-F for the relevant fiscal year.There can be no assurancethat we would not be identified as a Commission-Identified Issuer for any future fiscal year,and if we were so identified fortwo consecutive years,we would become subject to the prohibition on trading under the HFCAA.For more details,see“RiskFactorsRisks Related to Doing Business inThe information in this preliminary prospectus is not complete and may be changed.We may not sell these securities until the registration statement filed with theSecurities and Exchange Commission is effective.This preliminary prospectus is not an offer to sell these securities and we are not soliciting offers to buy thesesecurities in any state where the offer or sale is not permitted.2023/2/1tm2120356-19_f1-none-68.1878305shttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1861737/000110465923004072/tm2120356-19_f1.htm3/295Credit Suisse(1)TABLE OF CONTENTSChinaThe PRC governments significant oversight and discretion over our business operation could result in a material adversechange in our operations and the value of our ADSs,”“Risk FactorsRisks Related to Our Business and IndustryThe PCAOB hadhistorically been unable to inspect our auditor in relation to their audit work,”and“Risk FactorsRisks Related to Our Business andIndustryOur ADSs may be prohibited from trading in the United States under the HFCAA in the future if the PCAOB is unable toinspect or investigate completely auditors located in China.The delisting of the ADSs,or the threat of their being delisted,maymaterially and adversely affect the value of your investment.”Unless otherwise indicated or the context otherwise requires,references in this prospectus to“Hesai,”“we,”“us,”“our company”and“our”are to Hesai Group,our Cayman Islands holding company,and its subsidiaries,including Hesai Technology,and“HesaiTechnology”are to Hesai Technology Co.,Ltd.and its subsidiaries in China,the U.S.and elsewhere.Unless otherwise specified,in thecontext of describing business and operations,we are referring to the business and operations conducted by Hesai Technology.HesaiGroup,our holding company,or the Parent,may transfer cash to Hesai Hong Kong Limited,its wholly owned subsidiary in HongKong,through capital injections and intra-group loans.Hesai Hong Kong Limited,in turn,may transfer cash to Hesai Technology Co.,Ltd.,or Shanghai Hesai,its wholly owned subsidiary in the PRC,through capital injections and intra-group loans.Similarly,ShanghaiHesai may transfer cash to its wholly owned subsidiaries in the PRC and,upon approval from relevant PRC authorities,to subsidiariesin the U.S.,through capital injections and intra-group loans.Cash is also transferred through our organization by way of intra-grouptransactions.If our wholly owned subsidiaries in the PRC realize accumulated after-tax profits,they may,upon satisfaction of relevantstatutory conditions and procedures,pay dividends or distribute earnings to Hesai Hong Kong Limited.Hesai Hong Kong Limited,inturn,may transfer cash to the Parent through dividends or other distributions.With necessary funds,the Parent may pay dividends ormake other distributions to U.S.investors and service any debt it may have incurred outside of the PRC.In 2019,2020,2021 and thenine months ended September 30,2022,transfers of cash were made across our organization through capital injections,intra-grouploans and payments for services or goods provided.In 2019,2020,2021 and the nine months ended September 30,2022,the Parenttransferred nil,nil,US$472.7 million(upon the incorporation of Hesai Hong Kong Limited and through intra-group loans)and nil toHesai Hong Kong Limited,respectively,Hesai Hong Kong Limited transferred nil,nil,US$332.1 million(through capital injections)and nil to Shanghai Hesai,respectively,and Shanghai Hesai transferred US$5.3 million(through capital injections and intra-grouploans),nil,US$3.0 million(through capital injections)and nil to its subsidiaries,respectively.In 2019,2020,2021 and the nine monthsended September 30,2022,Shanghai Hesai transferred nil,US$0.6 million,US$0.8 million and US$1.4 million through service feesand payments for purchasing materials to its subsidiaries,respectively.In 2019,2020,2021 and the nine months ended September 30,2022,subsidiaries of Shanghai Hesai transferred US$0.3 million,US$4.7 million,US$1.8 million and US$0.1 million throughpayments for purchasing materials or finished goods to Shanghai Hesai,respectively.In 2019,2020,2021 and the nine months endedSeptember 30,2022,Oxigraf,Inc.,a subsidiary in the U.S.,transferred nil,nil,US$1.3 million and US$0.1 million through paymentsfor purchasing finished goods to a subsidiary of Shanghai Hesai in the PRC,respectively.We have established stringent controls andprocedures for cash flows within our organization.Each transfer of cash among our Cayman Islands holding company and oursubsidiaries is subject to internal approval.To effect a cash transfer,a number of steps are needed,including but not limited to theissuance of payment receipt,logging into the online banking system and completing its verification process,inspection of the invoice,and payment execution.A single employee is not permitted to complete each and every stage of a cash transfer,but rather only portionsof the whole procedure.Only the finance department is authorized to make cash transfers.Within the finance department,the roles ofpayment approval,payment execution,record keeping,and auditing are segregated to minimize risk.In the same periods,no assetsother than cash were transferred between the Parent and a subsidiary,no subsidiaries paid dividends or made other distributions to theParent,and no dividends or distributions were paid or made to U.S.investors.For a detailed description of how cash is transferredthrough our organization,see“SummaryCash Flows through Our Organization.”See“Risk Factors”beginning on page 20 for factors you should consider before buying the ADSs.PRICE US$PER ADSNeither the United States Securities and Exchange Commission nor any other regulatory body has approved or disapproved of thesesecurities or passed upon the accuracy or adequacy of this prospectus.Any representation to the contrary is a criminal offense.Per ADS Total Initial public offering price US$US$Underwriting discount and commissions US$US$Proceeds,before expenses,to us US$US$See“Underwriting”for additional information regarding compensation payable by us to the underwriters.The underwriters have a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional ADSs from us at the initial publicoffering price less the underwriting discount.The underwriters expect to deliver the ADSs to purchasers on ,2023.Goldman SachsMorgan StanleyHuatai SecuritiesProspectus dated ,2023.(1)2023/2/1tm2120356-19_f1-none-68.1878305shttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1861737/000110465923004072/tm2120356-19_f1.htm4/295TABLE OF CONTENTS2023/2/1tm2120356-19_f1-none-68.1878305shttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1861737/000110465923004072/tm2120356-19_f1.htm5/295TABLE OF CONTENTS2023/2/1tm2120356-19_f1-none-68.1878305shttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1861737/000110465923004072/tm2120356-19_f1.htm6/295TABLE OF CONTENTS2023/2/1tm2120356-19_f1-none-68.1878305shttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1861737/000110465923004072/tm2120356-19_f1.htm7/295TABLE OF CONTENTS2023/2/1tm2120356-19_f1-none-68.1878305shttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1861737/000110465923004072/tm2120356-19_f1.htm8/295TABLE OF CONTENTS2023/2/1tm2120356-19_f1-none-68.1878305shttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1861737/000110465923004072/tm2120356-19_f1.htm9/295TABLE OF CONTENTS2023/2/1tm2120356-19_f1-none-68.1878305shttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1861737/000110465923004072/tm2120356-19_f1.htm10/295TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS Prospectus Summary 1 The Offering 15 Summary Combined and Consolidated Financial Data 17 Risk Factors 20 Special Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements 67 Use of Proceeds 69 Dividend Policy 70 Capitalization 71 Dilution 72 Enforceability of Civil Liabilities 74 Corporate History and Structure 76 Managements Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations 77 Industry 102 Business 112 Regulation 137 Management 152 Principal Shareholders 158 Related Party Transactions 161 Description of Share Capital 162 Description of American Depositary Shares 174 Shares Eligible for Future Sale 184 Taxation 186 Underwriting 192 Expenses Related to this Offering 202 Legal Matters 203 Experts 204 Where You Can Find Additional Information 205 Index to Combined and Consolidated Financial Statements F-1 We have not authorized anyone to provide any information other than that contained in this prospectusor in any free writing prospectus prepared by or on behalf of us or to which we may have referred you.Wetake no responsibility for,and can provide no assurance as to the reliability of,any other information thatothers may give you.We and the underwriters have not authorized any other person to provide you withdifferent or additional information.We are offering to sell,and seeking offers to buy the ADSs,only injurisdictions where offers and sales are permitted.The information contained in this prospectus is accurateonly as of the date of this prospectus,regardless of the time of delivery of this prospectus or any sale of theADSs.We have not taken any action to permit a public offering of the ADSs outside the United States or topermit the possession or distribution of this prospectus outside the United States.Persons outside the UnitedStates who come into possession of this prospectus must inform themselves about and observe anyrestrictions relating to the offering of the ADSs and the distribution of the prospectus outside the UnitedStates.Until ,2023(the 25th day after the date of this prospectus),all dealers that buy,sell ortrade ADSs,whether or not participating in this offering,may be required to deliver a prospectus.This is inaddition to the obligation of dealers to deliver a prospectus when acting as underwriters and with respect totheir unsold allotments or subscriptions.i 2023/2/1tm2120356-19_f1-none-68.1878305shttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1861737/000110465923004072/tm2120356-19_f1.htm11/295 TABLE OF CONTENTS PROSPECTUS SUMMARYThe following summary is qualified in its entirety by,and should be read in conjunction with,the moredetailed information and financial statements appearing elsewhere in this prospectus.In addition to thissummary,we urge you to read the entire prospectus carefully,especially the risks of investing in the ADSsdiscussed under“Risk Factors,”before deciding whether to invest in the ADSs.This prospectus containsinformation from an industry report dated June 2021,and updated in May 2022 and September 2022commissioned by us and prepared by Frost&Sullivan,an independent research firm,regarding HesaiTechnologys industry and market position in China.We refer to this report as the“Frost&SullivanReport.”OverviewHesai Technology is the global leader in three-dimensional light detection and ranging(LiDAR)solutions.Its LiDAR products enable a broad spectrum of applications across(i)passenger or commercialvehicles with advanced driver assistance systems,or ADAS,(ii)autonomous vehicle fleets providingpassenger and freight mobility services,or Autonomous Mobility,and(iii)other applications such as last-mile delivery robots,street sweeping robots,and logistics robots in restricted areas,or Robotics.We believe that Hesai Technology is the most commercially successful LiDAR company globally.Its shipment volume,revenue scale and margins validate its global leadership.It has shipped over103,000 LiDAR units from 2017 to December 31,2022,and it has shipped over 80,400 LiDAR unitsin aggregate in 2022.In particular,it has shipped approximately 62,000 LiDAR units for ADAScustomers in aggregate in 2022,which demonstrates the highest estimated shipment volume ofLiDAR units(excluding low-end LiDARs with 16 channels or less)for ADAS customers in 2022,according to the Frost&Sullivan Report.It generated the highest revenue as compared with listedLiDAR companies around the world for the nine months ended September 30,2022,outperformingthe second place by over 3.6 times,according to the Frost&Sullivan Report.Its industry-leadinggross margin of approximately 50%from 2020 onwards enables it to organically and rapidly grow itsbusiness.It is one of the few companies that have shipped LiDAR products in volume to automotive OEMs inthe ADAS market and the first company in the world that delivers over 10,000 LiDAR units permonth,according to the Frost&Sullivan Report.According to the Yole Intelligence Report thatsampled 54 ADAS customers,it is No.1 in terms of LiDAR design wins.It paved the way forLiDARs from technology innovation to mass production and wide application,driven by theevolution for more intelligent vehicles.After volume shipment began in July 2022,it shippedapproximately 60,000 LiDAR units in the six months ended December 31,2022 to the ADASmarket,which was groundbreaking in the industry.Its top ADAS customers,in terms of expectedshipment volume as of September 30,2022,include Li Auto,Jidu,Lotus,an electric vehiclemanufacturer headquartered in China and a leading consumer electronics manufacturer in China thathas leaped into the electric vehicles industry.It is also the global leader for LiDARs in the Autonomous Mobility market in 2021 in terms ofrevenue,having an approximately 60%share of the global market,according to the Frost&SullivanReport.As of December 31,2021,12 out of the 15 top global autonomous driving companies usedits LiDARs as their primary LiDAR solution,meaning that Hesai Technology had the largest shareby purchase dollar amount for the current fleet of each of the 12 companies,according to the Frost&Sullivan Report.These top 15 companies are defined in terms of testing miles traveled as reported bythe California Department of Motor Vehicles in 2021.We believe there are three attributes critical to the development of LiDARs:Performance,Quality,andCost.Depending on the scenario or the application,Hesai Technologys customers have varying needs.ItsADAS customers generally have strict requirements on all three aspects,especially on Cost.LiDAR forAutonomous Mobility requires higher performance and quality,as they are critical to the successfuldevelopment and safe operation of full autonomous driving solutions,with cost tending to be a secondary Performance of LiDAR products refers to the detection range,point density,distance accuracy and precision,among others.Formore detailed description of Performance,Quality and Cost,see“Prospectus Summary Conventions That Apply to This Prospectus.”1 112023/2/1tm2120356-19_f1-none-68.1878305shttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1861737/000110465923004072/tm2120356-19_f1.htm12/295 TABLE OF CONTENTS consideration.For Robotics,its customers have demonstrated varying levels of cost sensitivity dependingon the application,which range from last-mile delivery robots to street sweeping robots.Hesai Technologydesigns and manufactures LiDARs to push limits across each of the three elements,while striking what itbelieves is the optimal balance for different applications and industries,which has led to its continuedsuccess in the ADAS and Autonomous Mobility markets.LiDARs are highly sophisticated instruments,consisting of the following key components.TX/RX system,or the laser transmitter(TX)and receiver(RX)system,is the key in the entire LiDARunit and holds the electronic and photonic components that send and receive laser light and processthe signals into distance measurements.The TX/RX system is critical to ensuring a LiDARs highperformance and its design is one of the key areas where we excel compared to other LiDARproviders.Beam steering system,which steers the laser light for the TX/RX system.See“BusinessOurLiDAR Technology and Innovative Approach to TX/RX DesignBeam Steering System.”Other supporting infrastructure,including optics,mechanical structures,circuits,and firmware,among others.Hesai Technologys semiconductor-based TX/RX system design uses application-specific integratedcircuits,or ASICs,and offers significant advantages over architectures based on discrete components oflegacy LiDAR.Its ASIC-based LiDAR approach features a large number of channels driven by ASICs,combinedwith a simple but robust beam steering system.In this way,it is able to deliver a system that offersgreater Performance,higher Quality and consistency at lower Cost.In particular,its proprietaryASICs drive a large number(currently up to 128)of individually addressable laser channels withdynamic exposure functions in the TX/RX system.Its AT128,a breakthrough LiDAR product for the ADAS market,for example,is based on itsproprietary ASICs and is able to deliver superior performance at high precision,lower powerconsumption per channel,in a smaller form factor and at a lower cost compared to legacy LiDAR.From volume shipment began in July 2022,it shipped approximately 60,000 units of the AT seriesfeaturing one-dimensional solid-state electronic scanning for the six months ended December 31,2022.ASICs allow Hesai Technology to maximize the performance of LiDARs via fully customized signalprocessing while concurrently reducing power consumption.The legacy LiDAR involves assemblinghundreds of discrete components,which leads to a higher likelihood of quality issues andinconsistency,whereas the ASIC-based LiDARs integrate multiple functions into a few chips,whichreduces system complexity and achieves lower cost thanks to a simplified manufacturing process.Hesai Technology has completed its v1.5 ASIC upgrade and will continue to upgrade its ASICsonwards and leverage the existing advanced manufacturing processes in the semiconductor supplychain to deliver better price-to-performance.Hesai Technologys proprietary manufacturing process constitutes another of its major advantages andhas contributed to its success to date.It integrates LiDAR design and manufacturing into an indivisible and seamless process.As theLiDAR industry continues to evolve quickly,its in-house integrated manufacturing capabilities,which cover design,manufacturing,calibration and testing,provide instant trial feedback for it torefine its LiDAR design and manufacturing process,thereby enabling rapid product development andfast iteration cycles.Given the complexity of LiDARs as an innovative product encompassing optics,electronic engineering,mechanical engineering,and semiconductor,among others,Hesai Technologyis capable to design and build up the manufacturing process from scratch,leveraging its accumulatedinsights on various aspects of LiDARs.Moreover,given the complexity and high level of expertiserequired to manufacture our products,we believe in-house manufacturing allows Hesai Technologyto better control product quality,ensure product consistency,improve manufacturing efficiency,and 2 2023/2/1tm2120356-19_f1-none-68.1878305shttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1861737/000110465923004072/tm2120356-19_f1.htm13/295 TABLE OF CONTENTS safeguard manufacturing process know-how at affordable cost.The know-how then furtherstrengthens its in-house manufacturing capability and helps establish a virtuous cycle to solidify itsadvantages over its competitors.Hesai Technology has strategically built its current manufacturing facility,which coversapproximately 270,000 square feet and is certified under IATF 16949 and ISO 9001,in Jiading,Shanghai,the hub for automotive OEMs in China.This manufacturing facility,together with atransitional production line,supports an annual production capacity of 35,000 units for the non-ATseries,plus an expected monthly production capacity of approximately 20,000 units for the ATseries,which fulfills the present demand for Hesai Technologys LiDAR products.Hesai Technologyis building a new facility of approximately 740,000 square feet,which is expected to commenceoperation in 2023 and is expected to eventually increase its annual production capacity up toapproximately 1.2 million units.Hesai Technology provides LiDAR solutions to the ADAS,Autonomous Mobility and Roboticsmarkets.ADAS.Hesai Technologys advantages leading to its success in the ADAS market are manifested in:(i)its ability to design and manufacture LiDAR units in scalable production volume,(ii)itsinnovative approach to ASIC-based TX/RX design,and(iii)its capability to fulfill the functionalsafety requirement for automotive-grade standard.Hesai Technology is currently the bellwether ofachieving scalable manufacturing and volume shipment in the ADAS market.It is one of the fewworld-leading companies that have shipped LiDAR products in volume to automotive OEMs in theADAS market,according to the Frost&Sullivan Report.According to the Yole Intelligence Reportthat sampled 54 ADAS customers,it is No.1 in terms of LiDAR design wins.Its manufacturingcapacity dedicated to the ADAS market is expected to reach approximately 20,000 units per month,and it has shipped approximately 62,000 LiDAR units in aggregate in 2022 to its ADAS customers.Its commercial success in the ADAS market has substantiated its advanced technology and provedthe Performance and Quality of its products in the actual on-the-road scenarios.Its top ADAScustomers,in terms of expected shipment volume as of September 30,2022,include Li Auto,Jidu,Lotus,an electric vehicle manufacturer headquartered in China and a leading consumer electronicsmanufacturer in China that has leaped into the electric vehicles industry.According to the Frost&Sullivan Report,the global LiDAR solution market for ADAS in terms of revenue wasUS$0.2 billion in 2021,and is expected to reach US$64.9 billion in 2030,representing a CAGR of93.8%.Autonomous Mobility.The LiDAR solution market for Autonomous Mobility has been HesaiTechnologys first battlefield to commercialize its LiDAR products and build its leadership in theindustry.According to the Frost&Sullivan Report,Hesai Technology is the global No.1 LiDARsolution provider in terms of revenue in the Autonomous Mobility application market in 2021,representing approximately 60%of the global market share.Its top five customers in terms ofrevenues in 2020 for LiDAR solutions in the Autonomous Mobility industry include,among others,aleading global OEM headquartered in the United States,Baidu,Inc.,Aurora,Pony.ai,and a leadingmobility service and technology company headquartered in the United States.Its top five customersin terms of revenues in 2021 were a leading global OEM headquartered in the United States,AutoX,Baidu,a top global OEM headquartered in Germany and WeRide.Its top five customers in terms ofrevenues in the nine months ended September 30,2022 were Li Auto,AutoX,a leading global OEMheadquartered in the United States,a top global OEM headquartered in Germany and an autonomousvehicle company headquartered in the United States.According to the Frost&Sullivan Report,theLiDAR solution market for Autonomous Mobility in terms of revenue was US$0.2 billion in 2021,and is expected to reach US$22.3 billion in 2030,representing a compound annual growth rate,orCAGR,of 73.6%.Robotics.In addition to the ADAS and Autonomous Mobility markets that it strategically focuseson,Hesai Technology also leverages its proprietary TX/RX system with embedded ASICs to developLiDAR products for the Robotics market.It has entered into multi-year agreements with Nuro,Meituan,and Neolix for deployments of last-mile delivery services in this market.According to theFrost&Sullivan Report,the global LiDAR solution market for Robotics in terms of revenue wasUS$0.1 billion in 2021,and is expected to reach US$16.7 billion in 2030,representing a CAGR of71.5%.3 2023/2/1tm2120356-19_f1-none-68.1878305shttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1861737/000110465923004072/tm2120356-19_f1.htm14/295 TABLE OF CONTENTS The following picture illustrates Hesai Technologys major product pipelines embedded with its ASICdevelopment roadmap.Hesai Technology has already started commercializing its technology and has begun shipping itsLiDAR units in increasing volumes.Revenue on approximately 14,000 shipped LiDAR units wasrecognized in 2021 as compared to approximately 4,200 shipped units in 2020.Hesai Technology has beengrowing rapidly while maintaining industryleading gross margins as compared to major publicly listedLiDAR companies,according to the Frost&Sullivan Report.Our net revenues increased by 19.4%fromRMB348.1 million in 2019 to RMB415.5 million in 2020,and further increased by 73.5%from RMB415.5million in 2020 to RMB720.8 million(US$101.3 million)in 2021.Our gross margin for 2019,2020,and2021 was 70.3%,57.5%,and 53.0%,respectively,and our net loss for the same periods was RMB120.2million,RMB107.2 million,and RMB244.8 million(US$34.4 million),respectively.Our EBITDA,a non-GAAP financial measure,was negative RMB128.7 million,negative RMB109.1 million,and negativeRMB250.3 million(US$35.2 million)in 2019,2020,and 2021,respectively.See“ManagementsDiscussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of OperationsNon-GAAP FinancialMeasure.”For the nine months ended September 30,2022,we recognized revenue on approximately 32,400shipped LiDAR units,as compared to over 8,000 shipped units in the nine months ended September 30,2021.Our net revenues increased by 72.7%from RMB459.4 million in the nine months endedSeptember 30,2021 to RMB793.5 million(US$111.5 million)in the nine months ended September 30,2022.Our gross margin for the nine months ended September 30,2021 and 2022 was 53.3%and 44.0%,respectively,and our net loss for the same periods was RMB174.8 million and RMB165.5 million(US$23.3 million),respectively.Our EBITDA,a non-GAAP financial measure,was negative RMB169.6million and negative RMB176.1 million(US$24.8 million)in the nine months ended September 30,2021and 2022,respectively.See“Managements Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results ofOperationsNon-GAAP Financial Measure.”StrengthsWe believe the following strengths position Hesai Technology well to capitalize on the opportunities inproviding LiDAR solutions for the ADAS,Autonomous Mobility,and Robotics markets:recognized global leadership;strong partnerships with industry-leading players;4 2023/2/1tm2120356-19_f1-none-68.1878305shttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1861737/000110465923004072/tm2120356-19_f1.htm15/295 TABLE OF CONTENTS commercially validated solutions backed by superior research and development on LiDARtechnologies and ASICs;strong in-house manufacturing enabling rapid development and high Quality;andvisionary management team with a proven track record of innovation and commercialization.Growth StrategiesOur business objective is to solidify the current dominant position in providing LiDAR solutions to thesurging ADAS and Autonomous Mobility markets and extend that leadership to the emerging Roboticsmarket.Key elements of our strategies include:leveraging the proprietary ASICs to solidify leadership in the ADAS and the Autonomous Mobilitymarkets;anchoring the market leadership in China and leveraging the accumulated know-how to advance inthe competition for international LiDAR markets;extending and enhancing partnerships with industry-leading companies;investing in manufacturing capabilities that enable continued delivery of products with highperformance and reliability at an attractive price to customers;expanding footprint in the Robotics market to serve more industries;anddeveloping software suites to provide comprehensive LiDAR solutions with flexibility.Corporate History and StructureWe commenced our operations in October 2014 through Hesai Photonics Technology Co.,Ltd.,nowknown as Hesai Technology Co.,Ltd.,or Shanghai Hesai,a limited liability company incorporated underthe laws of the PRC.Our initial focus was on high-performance laser sensors used in natural gas and otherindustries,but we shifted our primary business to the development,manufacturing and sales of LiDARproducts in 2016.Since then,we have developed and produced a full range of LiDAR solutions andproducts for various applications in ADAS,Autonomous Mobility and Robotics.Through Shanghai Hesai,we established HESAI INC.,a California corporation,and Shanghai HesaiTrade Co.,Ltd.,a PRC limited liability company,in October 2017 and May 2019,respectively.HESAI INC.and Shanghai Hesai Trade Co.,Ltd.serve as our primary sales platforms in the U.S.and China,respectively.To facilitate our offshore financing,we established Hesai Group,our offshore holding companyincorporated under the laws of the Cayman Islands,in April 2021.Shortly following its incorporation,HesaiGroup established a wholly owned subsidiary in Hong Kong,Hesai Hong Kong Limited,which now holds100%interest in Shanghai Hesai.In May and June 2021,as part of our reorganization,the shareholders of Shanghai Hesai transferredtheir equity interests in Shanghai Hesai to Hesai Hong Kong Limited,and they or their affiliates subscribedfor ordinary shares of Hesai Group in proportion to their respective interests in Shanghai Hesai prior to thereorganization,where entities owned by the three founders subscribed for Class A ordinary shares and othershareholders of Shanghai Hesai subscribed for Class B ordinary shares.Around the same time,wecompleted a new round of financing,issuing Class B ordinary shares of Hesai Group to a number of newinvestors.Including this new round of financing,we have raised a total of approximately US$536 million.5 2023/2/1tm2120356-19_f1-none-68.1878305shttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1861737/000110465923004072/tm2120356-19_f1.htm16/295 TABLE OF CONTENTS The following diagram illustrates our corporate structure,including our principal subsidiaries,as of thedate of this prospectus:Summary of Risk FactorsInvesting in our ADSs involves significant risks.You should carefully consider all of the information inthis prospectus before making an investment in our ADSs.Below please find a summary of the principalrisks we face,organized under relevant headings.These risks are discussed more fully in the section titled“Risk Factors.”Risks Related to Our Business and IndustryWe are an early stage company with a history of losses,and we may not be able to achieveprofitability in the future.Our limited operating history makes it difficult to evaluate our future prospects and the risks andchallenges we may encounter.Our LiDAR products used on vehicles are highly complex and may contain defects or otherwise failto perform in line with expectations,which could reduce the market adoption of our new products,damage our reputation with current or prospective customers,expose us to product liability and otherclaims and adversely affect our operating results.If our LiDAR products are not selected by automotive or robot OEMs or their suppliers,our businesswill be materially and adversely affected.We currently have and target many customers that are large corporations with substantial negotiatingpower,exacting product standards and potentially competitive internal solutions.If we are unable tosell our products to these customers or do so on terms acceptable to us,our prospects and results ofoperations will be adversely affected.Our ability to develop,manufacture,and deliver LiDAR products of high quality and appeal tocustomers,on schedule,and on a large scale is still evolving.6 2023/2/1tm2120356-19_f1-none-68.1878305shttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1861737/000110465923004072/tm2120356-19_f1.htm17/295 TABLE OF CONTENTS We are early in our efforts to develop and commercialize our in-house ASICs,and we cannot assureyou that such efforts will succeed.We operate in highly competitive markets and some market participants have substantially greaterresources.We compete against a large number of both established competitors and new marketentrants.Although we believe that LiDAR is the industry standard for ADAS,Autonomous Mobility andcertain other emerging markets,market adoption of LiDAR is uncertain.If market adoption ofLiDAR does not continue to develop,or develops more slowly than we expect,our business will beadversely affected.Because LiDAR is new in most of the markets we are seeking to enter,forecasts of market growth inthis prospectus may not be accurate.The PCAOB had historically been unable to inspect our auditor in relation to their audit work.Our ADSs may be prohibited from trading in the United States under the HFCAA in the future if thePCAOB is unable to inspect or investigate completely auditors located in China.The delisting of theADSs,or the threat of their being delisted,may materially and adversely affect the value of yourinvestment.Risks Related to Doing Business in ChinaThe PRC government has significant authority in regulating our operations and may influence orintervene in our operations at any time.Actions by the PRC government to exert control overofferings conducted overseas by,and foreign investment in,China-based issuers could significantlylimit or completely hinder our ability to offer or continue to offer securities to investors and causethe value of such securities to significantly decline or be worthless.Implementation of industry-wideregulations in this nature may also cause the value of such securities to significantly decline orbecome worthless.For more details,see“Risk FactorsRisks Related to Doing Business in ChinaThe PRC government has significant oversight and discretion over our business operation,and itmay influence or intervene in our operations at any time as part of its efforts to enforce PRC law,which could result in a material adverse change in our operations and the value of our ADSs;”Uncertainties exist with respect to how the PRC Foreign Investment Law may impact the viability ofour current corporate structure and operations;Changes in Chinas economic,political or social conditions or government policies could have amaterial adverse effect on our business and operations;Risks and uncertainties arising from the legal system in China,including risks and uncertaintiesregarding the enforcement of laws and the fact that rules and regulations in China may evolvequickly with any public consultation and advanced notice period being relatively short in terms ofthe time that we may need to fully adapt to such changes,all of which could result in a materialadverse change in our operations and the value of our ADSs.For more details,see“Risk FactorsRisks Related to Doing Business in ChinaUncertainties with respect to the PRC legal systemcould materially and adversely affect us;”The approval and/or other requirements of the CSRC or other PRC governmental authorities may berequired in connection with this offering under PRC rules,regulations or policies,and,if required,we cannot predict whether or for how long we will be able to obtain such approval.Any failure toobtain or delay in obtaining the requisite governmental approval for this offering,or a rescission ofsuch approval,would subject us to sanctions imposed by the relevant PRC governmental authority;Any failure to comply with the various applicable laws and regulations related to data security andcybersecurity could affect our offshore listing and lead to liabilities,penalties or other regulatoryactions,which could have a material and adverse effect on our business,financial condition andresults of operations;We are subject to PRC laws and regulations restricting capital flows which may affect our liquidity.See“Risk FactorsRisks Related to Doing Business in ChinaWe may rely on dividends andother distributions on equity paid by our PRC subsidiaries to fund any cash and financingrequirements 7 2023/2/1tm2120356-19_f1-none-68.1878305shttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1861737/000110465923004072/tm2120356-19_f1.htm18/295 TABLE OF CONTENTS we may have,and any limitation on the ability of our PRC subsidiaries to make payments to us couldhave a material and adverse effect on our ability to conduct our business”and“Risk FactorsRisksRelated to Doing Business in ChinaPRC regulation of loans to and direct investment in PRCentities by offshore holding companies may delay us from using the proceeds of this offering tomake loans or additional capital contributions to our PRC subsidiaries,which could materially andadversely affect our liquidity and our ability to fund and expand our business.”Chinas M&A Rules and certain other PRC regulations establish complex procedures for certainacquisitions of PRC companies,which could make it more difficult for us to pursue growth throughacquisitions in China.General Risks Related to Our ADSs and This OfferingAn active trading market for our ordinary shares or our ADSs may not develop and the trading pricefor our ADSs may fluctuate significantly.We are an emerging growth company within the meaning of the Securities Act and may takeadvantage of certain reduced reporting requirements.Our dual-class share structure with different voting rights will limit your ability to influencecorporate matters and could discourage others from pursuing any change of control transactions thatholders of our Class B ordinary shares and ADSs may view as beneficial.Permissions for Our Operation and Securities Issuances to Foreign Investors and Recent RegulatoryDevelopmentsTo the extent that the discussions in this section on PRC permissions relate to matters of PRC law,it isthe opinion of Commerce&Finance Law Offices,our PRC counsel.Under PRC laws and regulations,weare required to obtain or complete a number of licenses,approvals,registrations,filings and otherpermissions for our operation,including without limitation,the Customs Import And Export GoodsConsignee or Consignor Record Return Receipt for our import and export business,the Fixed SourceDischarge Registration Return Receipt for the pollutant emissions from our production process,and theType Approval Certificate for Radio Transmitting Equipment and Record-filing of Sale of RadioTransmitting Equipment for certain of our products.See“Risk FactorsRisks Related to Our Business andIndustryIf we fail to obtain and maintain the requisite licenses,permits,registrations and filingsapplicable to our business,or fail to obtain additional licenses,permits,registrations or filings that becomenecessary as a result of new enactment or promulgation of government policies,laws or regulations or theexpansion of our business,our business and results of operations may be materially and adversely affected.”The expansion of our manufacturing facilities is also subject to a number of government supervision andapproval procedures.See“Risk FactorsRisks Related to Our Business and IndustryThe expansion ofour manufacturing facilities may be subject to delays,disruptions,cost overruns,or may not produceexpected benefits.”As of the date of this prospectus,we have obtained all such required permissions for ourcurrent operation.On November 14,2021,the Cyberspace Administration of China,or the CAC,issued theAdministrative Regulations of Cyber Data Security(Draft for Comments),or the Draft Cyber Data SecurityRegulations,which provide that data processors conducting the following activities shall apply forcybersecurity review:(i)merger,reorganization or spin-off of Internet platform operators that have acquireda large number of data resources related to national security,economic development or public interestsaffects or may affect national security;(ii)listing abroad of data processors processing over one millionusers personal information;(iii)listing in Hong Kong which affects or may affect national security;(iv)other data processing activities that affect or may affect national security.On December 28,2021,the CAC,together with other relevant administrative departments,jointly promulgated the Cybersecurity ReviewMeasures which became effective on February 15,2022.According to the Cybersecurity Review Measures,an internet platform operator who possesses personal information of more than one million users shall applyfor a cybersecurity review before listing in a foreign country,and the relevant governmental authorities mayinitiate a cybersecurity review if they consider that the relevant network products or services or dataprocessing activities affect or may affect national security.On March 17,2022,we received confirmation inwriting from the China Cybersecurity Review Technology and Certification Center,or the CCRC,theinstitution designated by the CAC to receive application materials for cybersecurity review and conductexaminations 8 2023/2/1tm2120356-19_f1-none-68.1878305shttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1861737/000110465923004072/tm2120356-19_f1.htm19/295TABLE OF CONTENTS of such applications.The CCRC confirmed to us that we would not be required to apply for a cybersecurityreview in connection with this offering and our proposed listing if we do not possess over one million userspersonal information prior to the completion of this offering and our proposed listing.As a result,based onthe fact that we are not in possession of more than one million users personal information,we are notsubject to cybersecurity review by the CAC for this offering and our proposed listing.See“Risk FactorsRisks Related to Doing Business in ChinaAny failure to comply with the various applicable laws andregulations related to data security and cybersecurity could affect our offshore listing and lead to liabilities,penalties or other regulatory actions,which could have a material and adverse effect on our business,financial condition and results of operations.”On July 6,2021,the PRC government promulgated the Opinions on Strictly Cracking Down on IllegalSecurities Activities,or the July 6 Opinions,which,among other things,called for enhanced administrationand supervision of overseas-listed China-based companies,proposed to strengthen the supervision ofoverseas issuance and listing of shares by China-based companies and clarified the responsibilities ofcompetent domestic industry regulators and government authorities.Since the July 6 Opinions werepromulgated,no further explanations or detailed rules and regulations with respect to the July 6 Opinionshave been issued,leaving uncertainties regarding the interpretation and implementation of the July 6Opinions.We do not believe that any provision in the July 6 Opinions had a material adverse impact on ourbusiness or offshore listing plan.On December 24,2021,the State Councils Administrative Regulations onOverseas Issuance and Listing of Securities by Domestic Enterprises(Draft for Public Comments),or theDraft Overseas Listing Administration Provisions,and the Administrative Measures on Filing of OverseasIssuance and Listing of Securities by Domestic Enterprises(Draft for Public Comments)were released forpublic comments by the CSRC,and such public comment period has ended.Pursuant to these drafts,PRCdomestic companies that directly or indirectly offer or list their securities in an overseas market,whichinclude(i)any PRC company limited by shares,and(ii)any offshore company that conducts its businessoperations primarily in China and contemplates an offering or listing of its securities in an overseas marketbased on its onshore equities,assets or similar interests,are required to file with the CSRC within threebusiness days after submitting their listing application documents.The drafts,among others,furtherstipulate that when determining whether an offering and listing shall be deemed as an“indirect overseasoffering and listing by a Chinese company”,the principle of“substance over form”shall be followed,and ifthe issuer meets the following conditions,its offering and listing shall be determined as an“indirectoverseas offering and listing by a Chinese company”and is therefore subject to the filing requirement:(1)the revenues,profits,total assets or net assets of the Chinese operating entities in the most recent financialyear account for more than 50%of the corresponding data in the issuers audited consolidated financialstatements for the same period;or(2)the majority of senior management in charge of business operationsare Chinese citizens or have domicile in the PRC,and its principal place of business is located in the PRC ormain business activities are conducted in the PRC.Failure to complete such filing may subject a PRCdomestic company to a warning or a fine between RMB1 million and RMB10 million.If the circumstancesare serious,the PRC domestic company may be ordered to suspend its business or suspend its operation forrectification,or its permits or businesses license may be revoked.However,as of the date of this prospectus,uncertainties exist regarding the final form of these regulations as well as the interpretation andimplementation thereof after promulgation.In the event that these drafts come into effect before theconsummation of this offering,we will take any and all actions necessary to complete the required filingwith the CSRC.See“Risk FactorsRisks Related to Doing Business in ChinaThe approval and/orother requirements of the CSRC or other PRC governmental authorities may be required in connection withthis offering under PRC rules,regulations or policies,and,if required,we cannot predict whether or for howlong we will be able to obtain such approval.Any failure to obtain or delay in obtaining the requisitegovernmental approval for this offering,or a rescission of such approval,would subject us to sanctionsimposed by the relevant PRC governmental authority.”We plan to comply with the filing procedures of theCSRC with respect to this offering,if and when such procedures are adopted by the CSRC.On April 2,2022,the CSRC,together with the MOF,the National Administration of State SecretsProtection,or the NAPSS,and the National Archives Administration of China,or the SAAC,issued theProvisions on Strengthening Confidentiality and Archives Administration of Overseas Securities Offeringand Listing by Domestic Companies(Draft for Comments),or the Draft Archives Rules,for publiccomment.The Draft Archives Rules reiterate that working papers produced in the PRC by securitiescompanies and securities service providers for direct and indirect overseas offering and listing by domesticcompanies,should 9 2023/2/1tm2120356-19_f1-none-68.1878305shttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1861737/000110465923004072/tm2120356-19_f1.htm20/295TABLE OF CONTENTS be retained in the PRC,and,without prior approval by competent authorities of the PRC,such workingpapers shall not be brought,mailed or otherwise transferred to recipients outside of the PRC.Furthermore,the Draft Archives Rules establish a cross-border regulatory cooperation mechanism as prescribed in thePRC Securities Law and strengthen cross-border regulatory cooperation as prescribed in the Draft OverseasListing Administration Provisions,which shifts the overall direction of cross-border supervision of overseasoffering and listing from a“dominated by domestic regulators or depend on the conclusions of inspectionsby domestic regulators”approach to a“cross-border regulatory cooperation”mechanism.The DraftArchives Rules were released only for soliciting public comments at this stage and their final form,interpretation and implementation remain substantially uncertain.Cash Flows through Our OrganizationHesai Group,our holding company,or the Parent,may transfer cash to Hesai Hong Kong Limited,itswholly owned subsidiary in Hong Kong,through capital injections and intra-group loans.Hesai Hong KongLimited,in turn,may transfer cash to Shanghai Hesai,its wholly owned subsidiary in the PRC,throughcapital injections and intra-group loans.Similarly,Shanghai Hesai may transfer cash to its wholly ownedsubsidiaries in the PRC and,upon approval from relevant PRC authorities,to subsidiaries in the U.S.,through capital injections and intra-group loans.If our wholly owned subsidiaries in the PRC realizeaccumulated after-tax profits,they may,upon satisfaction of relevant statutory conditions and procedures,pay dividends or distribute earnings to Hesai Hong Kong Limited.Hesai Hong Kong Limited,in turn,maytransfer cash to the Parent through dividends or other distributions.With necessary funds,the Parent maypay dividends or make other distributions to U.S.investors and service any debt it may have incurredoutside of the PRC.In 2019,2020,2021,the Parent transferred nil,nil,US$472.7 million(upon theincorporation of Hesai Hong Kong Limited and through intra-group loans)and nil to Hesai Hong KongLimited,respectively,Hesai Hong Kong Limited transferred nil,nil,US$332.1 million(through capitalinjections)and nil to Shanghai Hesai,respectively,and Shanghai Hesai transferred US$5.3 million(throughcapital injections and intra-group loans),nil,US$3.0 million(through capital injections)and nil to itssubsidiaries,respectively.Cash is also transferred through our organization by way of intra-group transactions.In 2019,2020,2021 and the nine months ended September 30,2022,Shanghai Hesai transferred nil,US$0.6 million,US$0.8 million and US$1.4 million through service fees and payments for purchasing materials to itssubsidiaries,respectively.In 2019,2020,2021 and the nine months ended September 30,2022,subsidiariesof Shanghai Hesai transferred US$0.3 million,US$4.7 million,US$1.8 million and US$0.1 million throughpayments for purchasing materials or finished goods to Shanghai Hesai,respectively.In 2019,2020,2021and the nine months ended September 30,2022,Oxigraf,Inc.,a subsidiary in the U.S.,transferred nil,nil,US$1.3 million and US$0.1 million through payments for purchasing finished goods to a subsidiary ofShanghai Hesai in the PRC,respectively.In 2019,2020,2021 and the nine months ended September 30,2022,no assets other than cash weretransferred between the Parent and a subsidiary,no subsidiaries paid dividends or made other distributionsto the Parent,and no dividends or distributions were paid or made to U.S.investors.Under PRC laws and regulations,we are subject to restrictions on foreign exchange and cross-bordercash transfers,including to the Parent and U.S.investors.Our ability to distribute earnings to the Parent andU.S.investors is also limited.We are a Cayman Islands holding company and rely on dividends and otherdistributions on equity from our PRC subsidiaries for our cash requirements,including the funds necessaryto pay dividends and other cash distributions to our shareholders and service any debt we may incur outsideof PRC.Current PRC regulations permit our PRC subsidiaries to pay dividends to us only out of theiraccumulated after-tax profits upon satisfaction of relevant statutory conditions and procedures,if any,determined in accordance with Chinese accounting standards and regulations.In addition,each of our PRCsubsidiaries is required to set aside at least 10%of its after-tax profits each year,if any,to fund certainreserve funds until the total amount set aside reaches 50%of its registered capital.These reserves,togetherwith the registered capital,are not distributable as cash dividends.Additionally,if our PRC subsidiariesincur debt on their own behalf in the future,the instruments governing their debt may restrict their ability topay dividends or make other distributions to us.In addition,the revenue and assets of our PRC subsidiariesare generally denominated in Renminbi,which is not freely convertible into other currencies.As a result,any restriction on currency exchange may limit the ability of our PRC subsidiaries to pay dividends to us.For 10 2023/2/1tm2120356-19_f1-none-68.1878305shttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1861737/000110465923004072/tm2120356-19_f1.htm21/295TABLE OF CONTENTS more details,see“Risk FactorsRisks Related to Doing Business in ChinaWe may rely on dividendsand other distributions on equity paid by our PRC subsidiaries to fund any cash and financing requirementswe may have,and any limitation on the ability of our PRC subsidiaries to make payments to us could have amaterial and adverse effect on our ability to conduct our business”and“Risk FactorsRisks Related toDoing Business in ChinaGovernmental control of currency conversion may limit our ability to utilizeour revenues effectively and affect the value of your investment.”We have established stringent controls and procedures for cash flows within our organization.Eachtransfer of cash among our Cayman Islands holding company and our subsidiaries is subject to internalapproval.To effect a cash transfer,a number of steps are needed,including but not limited to the issuance ofpayment receipt,logging into the online banking system and completing its verification process,inspectionof the invoice,and payment execution.A single employee is not permitted to complete each and every stageof a cash transfer,but rather only portions of the whole procedure.Only the finance department isauthorized to make cash transfers.Within the finance department,the roles of payment approval,paymentexecution,record keeping,and auditing are segregated to minimize risk.The Holding Foreign Companies Accountable ActPursuant to the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act,or the HFCAA,if the SEC determinesthat we have filed audit reports issued by a registered public accounting firm that has not been subject toinspections by the PCAOB for two consecutive years,the SEC will prohibit our shares or the ADSs frombeing traded on a national securities exchange or in the over-the-counter trading market in the United States.On December 16,2021,the PCAOB issued a report to notify the SEC of its determination that the PCAOBwas unable to inspect or investigate completely registered public accounting firms headquartered inmainland China and Hong Kong,including our auditor.On December 15,2022,the PCAOB issued a reportthat vacated its December 16,2021 determination and removed mainland China and Hong Kong from thelist of jurisdictions where it is unable to inspect or investigate completely registered public accountingfirms.Each year,the PCAOB will determine whether it can inspect and investigate completely audit firmsin mainland China and Hong Kong,among other jurisdictions.If the PCAOB determines in the future that itno longer has full access to inspect and investigate completely accounting firms in mainland China andHong Kong and we continue to use an accounting firm headquartered in one of these jurisdictions to issuean audit report on our financial statements filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission,we would beidentified as a Commission-Identified Issuer following the filing of the annual report on Form 20-F for therelevant fiscal year.There can be no assurance that we would not be identified as a Commission-IdentifiedIssuer for any future fiscal year,and if we were so identified for two consecutive years,we would becomesubject to the prohibition on trading under the HFCAA.See“Risk FactorsRisks Related to Our Businessand IndustryThe PCAOB had historically been unable to inspect our auditor in relation to their auditwork”and“Risk FactorsRisks Related to Our Business and IndustryOur ADSs may be prohibitedfrom trading in the United States under the HFCAA in the future if the PCAOB is unable to inspect orinvestigate completely auditors located in China.The delisting of the ADSs,or the threat of their beingdelisted,may materially and adversely affect the value of your investment.”Implication of Being an Emerging Growth CompanyAs a company with less than US$1.235 billion in revenue for our last fiscal year,we qualify as an“emerging growth company”pursuant to the Jumpstart Our Business Startups Act of 2012,as amended,orthe JOBS Act.An emerging growth company may take advantage of specified reduced reporting and otherrequirements compared to those that are otherwise applicable generally to public companies.Theseprovisions include exemption from the auditor attestation requirement under Section 404 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 in the assessment of the emerging growth companys internal control over financialreporting.The JOBS Act also provides that an emerging growth company does not need to comply with anynew or revised financial accounting standards until such date that a private company is otherwise required tocomply with such new or revised accounting standards.Pursuant to the JOBS Act,we have elected to takeadvantage of the benefits of this extended transition period for complying with new or revised accountingstandards.As a result,our operating results and financial statements may not be comparable to the operatingresults and financial statements of other companies who have adopted the new or revised accountingstandards.11 2023/2/1tm2120356-19_f1-none-68.1878305shttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1861737/000110465923004072/tm2120356-19_f1.htm22/295 TABLE OF CONTENTS We will remain an emerging growth company until the earliest of(a)the last day of the fiscal yearduring which we have total annual gross revenues of at least US$1.235 billion;(b)the last day of our fiscalyear following the fifth anniversary of the completion of this offering;(c)the date on which we have,duringthe preceding three-year period,issued more than US$1.0 billion in non-convertible debt;or(d)the date onwhich we are deemed to be a“large accelerated filer”under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934,asamended,or the Exchange Act,which would occur if the market value of our ADSs that are held by non-affiliates exceeds US$700 million as of the last business day of our most recently completed second fiscalquarter.Once we cease to be an emerging growth company,we will not be entitled to the exemptionsprovided in the JOBS Act discussed above.Implication of Being a Foreign Private IssuerWe are a foreign private issuer within the meaning of the rules under the Exchange Act,and as such weare exempt from certain provisions of the securities rules and regulations in the United States that areapplicable to U.S.domestic issuers.Moreover,the information we are required to file with or furnish to theSEC will be less extensive and less timely compared to that required to be filed with the SEC by U.S.domestic issuers.In addition,as an exempted company incorporated in the Cayman Islands,we arepermitted to adopt certain home country practices in relation to corporate governance matters that differsignificantly from the Nasdaq Stock Market Rules.See“Risk FactorsGeneral Risks Relating to OurADSs and This OfferingAs a company incorporated in the Cayman Islands,we are permitted to adoptcertain home country practices in relation to corporate governance matters that differ significantly from theNasdaq Stock Market listing standards.”Corporate InformationOur principal executive offices are located at 9th Floor,Building L2-B,1588 Zhuguang Road,QingpuDistrict,Shanghai 201702,Peoples Republic of China.Our telephone number at this address is 86(21)3158-8240.Our registered office in the Cayman Islands is located at the offices of Ogier Global(Cayman)Limited,89 Nexus Way,Camana Bay,Grand Cayman,KY1-9009,Cayman Islands.Investors should submit any inquiries to the address and telephone number of our principal executiveoffices.Our main website is .The information contained on our website is not a part ofthis prospectus.Our agent for service of process in the United States is Cogency Global Inc.,located at122 East 42nd Street,18th Floor,New York,NY 10168.Conventions That Apply to This ProspectusUnless otherwise indicated or the context otherwise requires,references in this prospectus to:“15 top global autonomous driving companies”are to the top 15 companies ranked by testing milestraveled as reported by the California Department of Motor Vehicles in 2021;“ADAS”are to advanced driver-assistance systems;“ADSs”are to American depositary shares,each of which represents Class Bordinary shares;“AEC-Q”are to a standard issued by the Automotive Electronics Council regarding the conformityof components;“ASIC”are to application-specific integrated circuit;“ASTM”are to the American Society for Testing and Materials;“Autonomous Mobility”are to using driverless vehicles to move passengers or goods autonomously,examples include robotaxis and robotrucks;“beam steering”are to scanning of the laser beam,which changes the emission directions of the laserbeam in a LiDAR system;“BVI”are to the British Virgin Islands;“CAGR”are to compound annual growth rate;12 2023/2/1tm2120356-19_f1-none-68.1878305shttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1861737/000110465923004072/tm2120356-19_f1.htm23/295 TABLE OF CONTENTS “China”or the“PRC”are to the Peoples Republic of China,excluding,for the purposes of thisprospectus only,Hong Kong,Macau and Taiwan;“Class A ordinary shares”are to our Class A ordinary shares,par value US$0.0001 per share;“Class B ordinary shares”are to our Class B ordinary shares,par value US$0.0001 per share;“Cost”are to the per unit price for each LiDAR unit.Customers of LiDAR units for differentapplications and industries have varying levels of cost sensitivity,which is usually influenced byfactors such as timeline for mass adoption,volume of units needed and business models of the targetapplication,among others;“FMEA”are to failure mode and effects analysis;“FMEDA”are to failure modes effects and diagnostic analysis;“FOV”are to field of view;“FTA”are to fault tree analysis;“GaAs”are to gallium arsenide;“GB standards”are to Guobiao standards,the Chinese national standards;“Hesai,”“we,”“us,”“our company”and“our”are to Hesai Group,our Cayman Islands holdingcompany,and its subsidiaries,including Hesai Technology,and“Hesai Technology”are to HesaiTechnology Co.,Ltd.and its subsidiaries in China,the U.S.and elsewhere.Unless otherwisespecified,in the context of describing business and operations,we are referring to the business andoperations conducted by Hesai Technology;“IC”are to integrated circuit;“InGaAs”are to indium gallium arsenide;“IEC”are to the International Electrotechnical Commission;“IPC”are to the Association Connecting Electronics Industries;“ISO”are to the International Organization for Standardization;“ISO/TS 16949”are to a standard based on ISO 9001,including specific requirements from theautomotive sector for the design,development,production,installation and servicing of allautomotive-related products;“JEDEC”are to the Joint Electron Device Engineering Council;“LiDAR”are to light detection and ranging,a remote sensing method that uses light to measure thedistance or range of objects;“MEMS”are to micro-electro-mechanical system;“nm”are to nanometer;“OEM”are to original equipment manufacturer;“OPA”are to optical phased array,a technology enabling laser to emit towards a specific directionby adjusting the phase of each phase shifter in an array phase shifter based on the principle ofinterference of light;“ordinary shares”are to our Class A and Class B ordinary shares,par value US$0.0001 per share;“our WFOE”or“Shanghai Hesai”are to Hesai Technology Co.,Ltd.;“Performance”are to the explicit specifications of a LiDAR unit that directly reflect its performance,including detection range(for example,200 meters or longer at 10%reflectivity),point density(number of points generated per second,which is horizontal resolution times vertical resolution,multiplied by frame rate),distance accuracy and precision,reflectivity accuracy,and interferencerejection,among others;13 2023/2/1tm2120356-19_f1-none-68.1878305shttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1861737/000110465923004072/tm2120356-19_f1.htm24/295 TABLE OF CONTENTS “primary LiDAR solution”for an autonomous driving company are to the LiDARs whose vendor hasthe largest share by purchase dollar amount among all LiDARs used in the current fleet of theautonomous driving company;“Quality”are to the implicit aspects of a LiDAR unit that represent its ability to perform consistentlyunder a variety of circumstances over time,including robustness under extreme operatingtemperatures,different levels of humidity,waterproof levels,and mechanical shocks and stresses.Quality also represents a products manufacturing consistency,functional safety(typically ASIL-B),and viability as an automotive-grade component;“RMB”and“Renminbi”are to the legal currency of China;“Robotics”are to last-mile delivery robot,street sweeping robot,and logistics robot in restrictedareas;“RX”are to laser receiver;“SAE”are to the Society of Automotive Engineers;“SiPM”are to a receiver combining signals from multiple SPADs;“SoC”are to system on a chip;“SPAD”are to single photon avalanche diode;“ToF”are to Time of Flight,which is a method for measuring the distance between a sensor and anobject,based on the time difference between the emission of the laser pulse and its return to thesensor,after being reflected by an object;“TX”are to laser transmitter;“US$,”“U.S.dollars,”“$,”and“dollars”are to the legal currency of the United States;“V2X”are to vehicle to everything,a technology enabling vehicles to interact with external trafficenvironment,including vehicles,infrastructure,internet and pedestrians;and“VCSEL”are to vertical cavity surface emitting laser.Unless the context indicates otherwise,all information in this prospectus assumes no exercise by theunderwriters of their option to purchase additional ADSs.Unless otherwise noted,all translations fromRenminbi to U.S.dollars and from U.S.dollars to Renminbi in this prospectus are made at a rate ofRMB7.1135 to US$1.0000,the exchange rate in effect as of September 30,2022 as set forth in theH.10 statistical release of The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.We make norepresentation that any Renminbi or U.S.dollar amounts could have been,or could be,converted into U.S.dollars or Renminbi,as the case may be,at any particular rate,or at all.14 2023/2/1tm2120356-19_f1-none-68.1878305shttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1861737/000110465923004072/tm2120356-19_f1.htm25/295TABLE OF CONTENTS THE OFFERINGOffering priceWe currently estimate that the initial public offering pricewill be between US$and US$per ADS.ADSs offered by us ADSs(or ADSs if the underwriters exercisetheir option to purchase additional ADSs in full).ADSs outstanding immediately after thisoffering ADSs(or ADSs if the underwriters exercisetheir option to purchase additional ADSs in full).Ordinary shares outstanding immediatelyafter this offering Class A ordinary shares and Class B ordinaryshares(or Class B ordinary shares if the underwritersexercise their option to purchase additional ADSs in full).The ADSsEach ADS representsClass B ordinary shares,par value US$0.0001 per share.The depositary will hold Class B ordinary sharesunderlying your ADSs.You will have rights as provided inthe deposit agreement among us,the depositary and holdersand beneficial owners of ADSs from time to time.We do not expect to pay dividends in the foreseeable future.If,however,we declare dividends on our Class B ordinaryshares,the depositary will pay you the cash dividends andother distributions it receives on our Class B ordinaryshares after deducting its fees and expenses in accordancewith the terms set forth in the deposit agreement.You may surrender your ADSs to the depositary inexchange for Class B ordinary shares.The depositary willcharge you fees for any exchange.We may amend or terminate the deposit agreement withoutyour consent.If you continue to hold your ADSs after anamendment to the deposit agreement,you agree to bebound by the deposit agreement as amended.To better understand the terms of the ADSs,you shouldcarefully read the“Description of American DepositaryShares”section of this prospectus.You should also read thedeposit agreement,which is filed as an exhibit to theregistration statement that includes this prospectus.Option to purchase additional ADSsWe have granted to the underwriters an option,exercisablewithin 30 days from the date of this prospectus,to purchaseup to an aggregate ofadditional ADSs.Use of proceedsWe expect that we will receive net proceeds ofapproximately US$million from this offering,assuming an initial public offering price of US$perADS,which is the midpoint of the estimated range of theinitial public offering price shown on the front cover of thisprospectus,after deducting underwriting discounts andcommissions and estimated offering expenses payable byus.15 2023/2/1tm2120356-19_f1-none-68.1878305shttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1861737/000110465923004072/tm2120356-19_f1.htm26/295 TABLE OF CONTENTS We intend to use the net proceeds from this offering for(i)investment in our manufacturing capabilities,includingconstructing new manufacturing facilities and purchasingnew manufacturing and testing equipment;(ii)research anddevelopment,including development of our next-generationASICs and further investment in our software solutions;and(iii)general corporate purposes,which may includepotential strategic investments and acquisitions,althoughwe have not identified any specific investments oracquisition opportunities at this time.See“Use ofProceeds”for more information.Lock-upWe,our directors,executive officers and all of our existingshareholders have agreed with the underwriters not to sell,transfer or dispose of any ADSs,Class B ordinary shares orsimilar securities for a period of 180 days after the date ofthis prospectus.See“Shares Eligible for Future Sale”and“Underwriting.”ListingWe intend to apply to have the ADSs listed on the NasdaqStock Market under the symbol“HSAI.”The ADSs and ourClass B ordinary shares will not be listed on any otherstock exchange or traded on any automated quotationsystem.Payment and settlementThe underwriters expect to deliver the ADSs againstpayment therefor through the facilities of the DepositoryTrust Company on,2023.DepositaryDeutsche Bank Trust Company AmericasThe number of ordinary shares that will be outstanding immediately after this offering:is based on 115,534,593 ordinary shares issued and outstanding as of the date of this prospectus;includes ordinary shares in the form of ADSs that we will issue and sell in this offering,assuming the underwriters do not exercise their over-allotment option to purchase additional ADSs;andexcludes all ordinary shares issuable upon exercise of our outstanding options and ordinary sharesreserved for future issuances under our share incentive plan.16 2023/2/1tm2120356-19_f1-none-68.1878305shttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1861737/000110465923004072/tm2120356-19_f1.htm27/295TABLE OF CONTENTS SUMMARY COMBINED AND CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL DATAThe following summary combined and consolidated statements of operations and comprehensive lossfor the years ended December 31,2019,2020 and 2021,summary combined and consolidated balancesheets data as of December 31,2019,2020 and 2021 and summary combined and consolidated cash flowsdata for the years ended December 31,2019,2020 and 2021 have been derived from our audited combinedand consolidated financial statements included elsewhere in this prospectus.The following summaryconsolidated statements of operations and comprehensive loss for the nine months ended September 30,2021 and 2022,summary consolidated balance sheets data as of September 30,2022 and summaryconsolidated cash flows data for the nine months ended September 30,2021 and 2022 are derived from ourunaudited interim consolidated financial statements included elsewhere in this prospectus.Our combined and consolidated financial statements are prepared and presented in accordance withaccounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America,or U.S.GAAP.Our historicalresults are not necessarily indicative of results expected for future periods.You should read this SummaryCombined and Consolidated Financial Data section together with our combined and consolidated financialstatements and the related notes and“Managements Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition andResults of Operations”included elsewhere in this prospectus.The following table presents our summary combined and consolidated statements of operations andcomprehensive loss data for the periods indicated:For the Year Ended December 31,For the Nine Months Ended September 30,2019 2020 2021 2021 2022 RMB RMB RMB US$RMB RMB US$(in thousands,except for share amount and per share data)Summary Combined andConsolidated Statements ofOperations and ComprehensiveLoss:Net revenues 348,084 415,514 720,768 101,324 459,442 793,485 111,546 Cost of revenues (103,377 (176,600 (338,972 (47,652 (214,671 (444,339 (62,464 Gross profit 244,707 238,914 381,796 53,672 244,771 349,146 49,082 Operating expenses:Sales and marketing expenses (38,740 (49,904 (69,266 (9,737 (48,072 (63,473 (8,924 General and administrativeexpenses (55,112 (76,553 (236,713 (33,277 (185,184 (153,380 (21,562 Research and developmentexpenses (149,817 (229,653 (368,435 (51,794 (210,627 (376,362 (52,908 Litigation settlement expense (160,098 Other operating income,net 11,009 15,384 27,333 3,842 18,741 5,948 836 Total operating expenses (392,758 (340,726 (647,081 (90,966 (425,142 (587,267 (82,558 Loss from operations (148,051 (101,812 (265,285 (37,294 (180,371 (238,121 (33,476 Interest income 19,107 20,925 32,584 4,581 14,203 49,284 6,928 Foreign exchange gain/(loss)9,619 (25,696 (13,275 (1,866 (9,805 25,430 3,575 Other income/(loss),net 31 (832 34 5 62 (2,116 (297 Net loss before income tax (119,294 (107,415 (245,942 (34,574 (175,911 (165,523 (23,270 Income tax(expenses)/benefit (930 199 1,115 157 1,113 44 6 Net loss (120,224 (107,216 (244,827 (34,417 (174,798 (165,479 (23,264 Deemed dividend (55,247 (2,211,330 (310,864 (2,206,731 (446,022 (62,701 Net loss attributable to ordinaryshareholders (175,471 (107,216 (2,456,157 (345,281 (2,381,529 (611,501 (85,965 17)2023/2/1tm2120356-19_f1-none-68.1878305shttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1861737/000110465923004072/tm2120356-19_f1.htm28/295(1)TABLE OF CONTENTS For the Year Ended December 31,For the Nine Months Ended September 30,2019 2020 2021 2021 2022 RMB RMB RMB US$RMB RMB US$(in thousands,except for share amount and per share data)Net loss per share:Basic and diluted (2.20 (1.19 (23.39 (3.29 (23.48 (5.29 (0.74 Weighted average shares used in calculating net loss per ordinary share:Basic and diluted 79,899,201 89,895,471 104,987,478 104,987,478 101,433,139 115,534,593 115,534,593 Pro forma net loss per share:Basic and diluted (24.28 (3.41 Pro forma weighted average shares used in calculating net loss per ordinary share:Basic and diluted 104,987,478 104,987,478 Note:The pro forma net loss per share for the year ended December 31,2021 was presented to include a correspondingshare-based compensation impact amounting to RMB93.2 million,assuming the initial public offering conditionwas met on January 1,2021,and the service vesting condition as of September 30,2022 was also met on January 1,2021.In addition,nil options have been exercised due to the effectiveness of the initial public offering condition in2021.The following table presents our summary combined and consolidated balance sheets data as of thedates indicated:As of December 31,As of September 30,2019 2020 2021 2022 RMB RMB RMB US$RMB US$(in thousands)Summary Combined and ConsolidatedBalance Sheets Data:Cash and cash equivalents 112,737 256,688 449,352 63,169 750,561 105,512 Short-term investments 910,972 638,981 2,342,743 329,338 1,317,564 185,220 Accounts receivable(net of allowance for doubtful accounts of RMB2,257,RMB5,270,RMB7,294 and RMB7,254 as of December 31,2019,2020 and 2021 and September 30,2022,respectively)36,511 56,319 85,821 12,065 362,944 51,022 Inventories 70,243 149,925 376,244 52,892 567,887 79,832 Prepayments and other current assets 31,835 40,658 89,119 12,528 111,005 15,605 Total current assets 1,170,260 1,209,239 3,493,359 491,090 3,115,459 437,964 Total assets 1,242,362 1,312,125 3,952,369 555,617 3,803,302 534,659 Accounts payable 18,608 55,437 77,271 10,863 181,380 25,498 Accrued expenses and other current liabilities 229,091 91,895 370,854 52,134 247,358 34,773 Total current liabilities 271,168 166,740 892,158 125,418 824,746 115,940 Total liabilities 313,150 174,932 902,548 126,879 853,783 120,021 Total mezzanine equity 1,098,639 5,540,491 778,870 5,986,513 841,571 Total shareholders(deficit)/equity (169,427 1,137,193 (2,490,670 (350,132 (3,036,994 (426,933 18)(1)(1)2023/2/1tm2120356-19_f1-none-68.1878305shttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1861737/000110465923004072/tm2120356-19_f1.htm29/295TABLE OF CONTENTS As of December 31,As of September 30,2019 2020 2021 2022 RMB RMB RMB US$RMB US$(in thousands)Total liabilities,mezzanine equity andshareholders(deficit)/equity 1,242,362 1,312,125 3,952,369 555,617 3,803,302 534,659 The following table presents our summary combined and consolidated statements of cash flows data forthe periods indicated:For the Year Ended December 31,For the Nine Months Ended September 30,2019 2020 2021 2021 2022 RMB RMB RMB US$RMB RMB US$(in thousands)Summary Combined andConsolidated Cash Flows Data:Net cash provided by/(used in)operating activities 46,166 (352,015 (228,386 (32,104 (114,090 (505,667 (71,086 Net cash(used in)/provided byinvesting activities (779,497 179,027 (1,980,237 (278,377 (1,168,823 769,607 108,190 Net cash provided by financingactivities 739,741 323,437 2,403,726 337,908 1,950,083 Net increase in cash and cashequivalents 6,410 150,449 195,103 27,427 667,170 263,940 37,104 Cash and cash equivalents at thebeginning of the year/period 104,336 112,737 256,688 36,085 256,688 449,352 63,169 Effect of foreign currency exchangerate changes on cash and cashequivalents 1,991 (6,498 (2,439 (343 22,114 37,269 5,239 Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the year/period 112,737 256,688 449,352 63,169 945,972 750,561 105,512 19)2023/2/1tm2120356-19_f1-none-68.1878305shttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1861737/000110465923004072/tm2120356-19_f1.htm30/295 TABLE OF CONTENTS RISK FACTORSAn investment in our ADSs involves significant risks.You should consider carefully all of theinformation in this prospectus,including the risks and uncertainties described below,before making aninvestment in our ADSs.Any of the following risks could have a material and adverse effect on our business,financial condition and results of operations.In any such case,the market price of our ADSs could decline,and you may lose all or part of your investment.Risks Related to Our Business and IndustryWe are an early stage company with a history of losses,and we may not be able to achieve profitability in the future.We have a history of net losses.We incurred net losses of RMB120.2 million,RMB107.2 million,RMB244.8 million(US$34.4 million),RMB174.8 million and RMB165.5 million(US$23.3 million)in2019,2020,2021 and the nine months ended September 30,2021 and 2022,respectively.We may continueto incur operating and net losses in the foreseeable future.Our potential profitability is dependent uponcontinued increase in customer needs for our LiDAR products and our success in competing against otherparticipants in the markets in which we operate,which may not occur.Our revenues may not grow sufficiently to offset the increase in our expenses as we:continue to invest in the design and upgrading of our LiDAR products;expand our production capabilities to produce our LiDAR products,including constructing newmanufacturing facilities;enhance our efforts to develop and commercialize LiDAR products for Robotics and other emergingmarkets;expand our design,development,installation and servicing capabilities;continue to build up inventories of parts and components for our LiDAR products;hire additional engineers and other personnel as we expand our business;andincrease our sales and marketing activities and develop our distribution infrastructure.Because we will incur the costs and expenses from these efforts before we receive incrementalrevenues with respect thereto,our losses in future periods could be significant.In addition,we may find thatthese efforts are more expensive than we currently anticipate or that these efforts may not result in revenues,which would further increase our losses.Such losses may materially and adversely affect our financialcondition and the price of our ADSs.Our limited operating history makes it difficult to evaluate our future prospects and the risks and challenges we mayencounter.We have been focused on developing our LiDAR products since 2016.This relatively limited operatinghistory makes it difficult to evaluate our future prospects and the risks and challenges we may encounter.Risks and challenges we have faced or expect to face include our ability to:produce and deliver LiDAR and software products of acceptable performance;develop and commercialize our in-house ASICs;forecast our revenue and budget for and manage our expenses;attract new customers and retain existing customers;comply with existing and new or modified laws and regulations applicable to our business;plan for and manage capital expenditures for our current and future products,and manage our supplychain and supplier relationships related to our current and future products;anticipate and respond to macroeconomic changes and changes in the markets in which we operate;20 2023/2/1tm2120356-19_f1-none-68.1878305shttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1861737/000110465923004072/tm2120356-19_f1.htm31/295 TABLE OF CONTENTS maintain and enhance the value of our reputation and brand;effectively manage our growth and business operations,including the impacts of the COVID-19pandemic on our business;develop and protect intellectual property;hire,integrate and retain talented people at all levels of our organization;andsuccessfully develop new solutions to enhance the experience of customers.If we fail to address the risks and difficulties that we face,including those associated with thechallenges listed above as well as those described elsewhere in this“Risk Factors”section,our business,financial condition and results of operations could be adversely affected.Further,because we have limitedhistorical financial data and operate in a rapidly evolving market,any predictions about our future revenueand expenses may not be as accurate as they would be if we had a longer operating history or operated in amore predictable market.We have encountered in the past,and will encounter in the future,risks anduncertainties frequently experienced by growing companies with limited operating histories in rapidlychanging industries.If our assumptions regarding these risks and uncertainties,which we use to plan andoperate our business,are incorrect or change,or if we do not address these risks successfully,our results ofoperations could differ materially from our expectations and our business,financial condition and results ofoperations could be adversely affected.Our LiDAR products used on vehicles are highly complex and may contain defects or otherwise fail to perform inline with expectations,which could reduce the market adoption of our new products,damage our reputation withcurrent or prospective customers,expose us to product liability and other claims and adversely affect our operatingresults.We sell the majority of our LiDAR products to Autonomous Mobility companies to be installed onvehicles.Those products are highly technical and very complex and require high standards to manufactureand have in the past and will likely in the future experience defects,errors or reliability issues at variousstages of development.We may be unable to timely release new products,manufacture existing products,correct problems that have arisen or correct such problems to our customers satisfaction.Additionally,undetected errors,defects or security vulnerabilities,especially as new products are introduced or as newversions are released,could result in serious injury or even death to the end users of technologyincorporating our products,or those in the surrounding area,litigation against us,negative publicity andother consequences.These risks are particularly prevalent in the highly competitive Autonomous Mobilityand ADAS markets.Some errors or defects in our products may only be discovered after they have beentested,commercialized and deployed by customers,in which case we may incur significant additionaldevelopment costs and product recall,repair or replacement costs.These problems may also result inclaims,including class actions,against us by our customers or others.Our reputation or brand may bedamaged as a result of these problems and customers may be reluctant to buy our products,which couldadversely affect our ability to retain existing customers and attract new customers and could adverselyaffect our financial results.In addition,we could face material legal claims for breach of contract,product liability,fraud,tort orbreach of warranty as a result of these problems.Defending a lawsuit,regardless of its merit,could becostly and may divert managements attention and adversely affect the markets perception of us and ourproducts.In addition,our insurance coverage could prove inadequate with respect to a claim and futurecoverage may be unavailable on acceptable terms or at all.Furthermore,any defects in or significant malfunctioning of our LiDAR products may weakencustomer confidence in LiDAR products.As the markets for LiDAR products are emerging and evolving,loss of customer confidence in LiDAR products could have a material adverse impact on the future of suchmarkets in general and our business prospects in particular.If our LiDAR products are not selected by automotive or robot OEMs or their suppliers,our business will bematerially and adversely affected.Automotive and robot OEMs and their suppliers typically design and develop ADAS,AutonomousMobility,Robotics and other key technologies over several years.These OEMs and suppliers undertake 21 2023/2/1tm2120356-19_f1-none-68.1878305shttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1861737/000110465923004072/tm2120356-19_f1.htm32/295 TABLE OF CONTENTS extensive testing or qualification processes prior to placing orders for large quantities of products such asour LiDAR products,because such products will function as part of a larger system or platform and mustmeet certain other specifications.We spend significant time and resources to have our products selected byautomotive and robot OEMs and their suppliers.If our LiDAR products are not selected by an automotive orrobot OEM with respect to a particular vehicle or robot model,we may not have an opportunity to supplyour products to the OEM for that model for a period of many years.If our LiDAR products are not selectedby an OEM or its suppliers for one vehicle or robot model or if our LiDAR products are not successful inthat model,it is unlikely that our product will be deployed in other models of that OEM.If we fail to win asignificant number of vehicle or robot models from one or more of automotive or robot OEMs or theirsuppliers,our business,results of operations and financial condition will be materially and adverselyaffected.Furthermore,even if our products are selected and we enter into framework agreements with OEMs ortheir suppliers,as we have with many of our customers,we cannot assure you such framework agreementswill always materialize into actual purchase orders,as in such agreements,our counterparties often retainthe discretion as to whether and when to place orders for our products,and our supply of products may besubject to other conditions such as meeting certain development milestones.We currently have and target many customers that are large corporations with substantial negotiating power,exacting product standards and potentially competitive internal solutions.If we are unable to sell our products tothese customers or do so on terms acceptable to us,our prospects and results of operations will be adversely affected.Many of our customers and potential customers are large,multinational corporations with substantialnegotiating power relative to us and,in some instances,may have internal solutions that are competitive toour products.These large,multinational corporations also have significant development resources,whichmay allow them to acquire or develop independently,or in partnership with others,competitivetechnologies.Meeting the technical requirements of any of these companies and being selected by them forsupplying LiDAR products will require a substantial investment of our time and resources.We cannotassure you that our LiDAR products will be selected by these or other companies or that we will generatemeaningful revenue or profit from the sales of our products to these key potential customers.If our productsare not selected by these large corporations or if these corporations develop or acquire competitivetechnology,it will have an adverse effect on our business.Our ability to develop,manufacture,and deliver LiDAR products of high quality and appeal to customers,onschedule,and on a large scale is still evolving.The sustainability of our business depends,in large part,on our ability to timely execute our plan todevelop,manufacture,and deliver on a large scale LiDAR products of high quality and appeal to customers.Our current manufacturing facility,together with a transitional production line,supports an annualproduction capacity of 35,000 units for the non-AT series,plus an expected monthly production capacity ofapproximately 20,000 units for the AT series.To date we have limited LiDAR manufacturing experience tobalance production volume and product quality and appeal,and therefore cannot assure you that we will beable to achieve our targeted production volume of commercially viable LiDAR products on a timely basis,or at all.Our continued development,manufacturing,and delivery of LiDAR products of high quality to achieveour targeted production volume are and will be subject to risks,including with respect to:lack of necessary funding;delays or disruptions in our supply chain;quality control deficiencies;compliance with environmental,workplace safety,and relevant regulations;andcost overruns.As w

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Nic Newman：2023 年新闻、媒体和技术趋势与预测报告（engelsk 版）(48 sider).pdf

DIGITAL NEWS PROJECTJANUARY 2023Journalism,Media,and Technology Trends and Predictions 2023Nic Newman1Contents About the Author 2Acknowledgements 2 Executive Summary 31.Inflation,Uncertainty,and Squeeze on Spending Clouds Prospects for Journalism 72.Digital Subscriptions and Bundling Offer Some Hope 103.Peak Internet and the Challenge of News Avoidance 164.Step Change in News Medias Coverage of the Climate Emergency 195.Tech Platforms Suffer from Overreach,Hubris,and New Competition 216.Format Innovation:The Shift to Audio and Video Continues 287.Product Direction is Clear but Frustration Remains Over Pace of Change 328.Breakthrough Year for Artificial Intelligence and its Application for Journalism 359.Conclusion 40Survey Methodology 42Recent RISJ Publications 44 THE REUTERS INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF JOURNALISM2About the Author Nic Newman is Senior Research Associate at the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism,where he has been lead author of the annual Digital News Report since 2012.He is also a consultant on digital media,working actively with news companies on product,audience,and business strategies for digital transition.He has produced a media and journalism predictions report for the last 13 years.This is the seventh to be published by the Reuters Institute.Nic was a founding member of the BBC News Website,leading international coverage as World Editor(19972001).As Head of Product Development(200110)he led digital teams,developing websites,mobile,and interactive TV applications for all BBC Journalism sites.AcknowledgementsThe author would like to thank 303 news leaders from 53 countries and territories,who responded to a survey around the key challenges and opportunities in the year ahead.Respondents included 68 editors-in-chief,49 CEOs or managing directors,and 44 heads of digital or innovation and came from some of the worlds leading traditional media companies as well as digital-born organisations(see breakdown at the end of the report).Survey input and answers helped guide some of the themes in this report and data have been used throughout.Some direct quotes do not carry names or organisations,at the request of those contributors.The author is particularly grateful to Rasmus Kleis Nielsen for his ideas and suggestions,the research team at the Reuters Institute,and to a range of other experts and executives who generously contributed their time in background interviews(see fuller list at the end).Thanks also go to Alex Reid for input on the manuscript over the holiday season and keeping the publication on track.As with many predictions reports there is a significant element of speculation,particularly around specifics and the report should be read bearing this in mind.Having said that,any mistakes factual or otherwise should be considered entirely the responsibility of the author who can be held accountable at the same time next year.Published by the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism with the support of the Google News Initiative.3JOURNALISM,MEDIA,AND TECHNOLOGY TRENDS AND PREDICTIONS 2023Executive SummaryThis will be a year of heightened concerns about the sustainability of some news media against a backdrop of rampant inflation,and a deep squeeze on household spending.Russias invasion of Ukraine,the increasingly destructive impact of global warming,along with the after-effects of the COVID pandemic have created fear and uncertainty for many ordinary people.In these conditions journalism has often thrived,but the depressing and relentless nature of the news agenda continues to turn many people away.Could this be the year when publishers rethink their offer to address the twin challenges of news avoidance and disconnection to offer more hope,inspiration,and utility?Big Tech platforms will also be under pressure this year and not just from the economic downturn.First-generation social networks like Facebook and Twitter are struggling to retain audiences as older people get bored and younger users migrate to new networks like TikTok.Amid this turmoil,there is some hope that the next set of applications will put more emphasis on connections and content that are good for society rather than those that deliver outrage and anger.With huge audiences up for grabs,we can expect(or hope)to see the seeds of something better in 2023 with a host of new networks and models emerging.Meanwhile,the next wave of technical innovation is already here and we are not talking about the metaverse.Extraordinary advances in artificial intelligence(AI)in 2022 have laid bare more immediate opportunities and challenges for journalism.AI offers the chance for publishers(finally)to deliver more personal information and formats,to help deal with channel fragmentation and information overload.But these new technologies will also bring existential and ethical questions along with more deep fakes,deep porn,and other synthetic media.Buckle up for the ride.Against this backdrop,news organisations that have not yet fully embraced digital will be at a severe disadvantage.The next few years will not be defined by how fast we adopt digital,but by how we transform our digital content to meet rapidly changing audience expectations.How do media leaders view the year ahead?Publishers are much less confident about their business prospects than this time last year.Less than half(44%)of our sample of editors,CEOs,and digital leaders say they are confident about the year ahead,with around a fifth(19%)expressing low confidence.The biggest concerns relate to rising costs,lower interest from advertisers,and a softening in subscriptions.Even those that are optimistic expect to see layoffs and other cost-cutting measures in the next year.At the same time,we find evidence that most publishers(72%)are worried about increasing news avoidance especially around important but often depressing topics like Ukraine and climate change with only 12%not worried.Publishers say they plan to THE REUTERS INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF JOURNALISM4counter this with explainer content(94%),Q&A formats(87%),and inspirational stories(66%)considered important or very important this year.Producing more positive news(48%)was a less popular response.More publishers are investing in subscription and membership in 2023,with the majority of those surveyed(80%)saying this will be one of their most important revenue priorities,ahead of both display and native advertising.Despite the squeeze on consumer spending,over half(68%)still expect some growth in subscription and other paid content income this year.Publishers say that,on average,three or four different revenue streams will be important or very important this year.A third(33%)now expect to get significant revenue from tech platforms for content licensing(or innovation),significantly up on last year,reflecting the fruits of multi-year deals negotiated in some markets with a number of big publishers,often in the context of policies championed by those same publishers being introduced or considered by governments.With more legislation planned this year to restrict harmful content on social media,many respondents(54%)worry that these new rules could make it harder for journalists and news organisations to publish stories that governments dont like.Around a third(30%)are less worried and 14%are not worried at all.Publishers say theyll be paying much less attention to Facebook(-30 net score)and Twitter(-28)this year and will instead put much more effort into TikTok( 63),Instagram( 50),and YouTube( 47),all networks that are popular with younger people.Increased interest in TikTok( 19pp compared with last year)reflects a desire to engage with under 25s,and experiment with vertical video storytelling,despite concerns about monetisation,data security,and the wider implications of Chinese ownership.The potential implosion of Twitter under the stewardship of Elon Musk has focused minds on its value to journalists.Half of our survey respondents(51%)say the potential loss or weakening of Twitter would be bad for journalism,but 17%take a more positive view suggesting it could reduce reliance on the views of an unrepresentative but vocal elite.LinkedIn(42%)has emerged as the most popular alternative,followed by Mastodon(10%),and Facebook(7%).Others struggle to see a like-for-like replacement.As the impact of climate change becomes more evident,the news industry has been rethinking how it covers this complex and multi-faceted story.Around half(49%)say they have created a specialist climate team to strengthen coverage,with a third hiring more staff(31%).Just under half(44%)say they are integrating dimensions of the climate debate into other coverage(e.g.business and sport)and three in ten(30%)have developed a climate change strategy for their company.5JOURNALISM,MEDIA,AND TECHNOLOGY TRENDS AND PREDICTIONS 2023 In terms of innovation,publishers say that they will be putting more resource into podcasts and digital audio(72%)as well as email newsletters(69%),two channels that have proved effective in increasing loyalty to news brands.Planned investment in digital video formats(67%)is also up on last year,perhaps prompted by TikToks explosive growth.By contrast just 4%say theyll be investing in the metaverse,reflecting increased scepticism about its potential for journalism.Media companies are quietly integrating AI into their products as a way of delivering more personalised experiences.Almost three in ten(28%)say this is now a regular part of their activities,with a further 39%saying they have been conducting experiments in this area.New applications such as ChatGPT and DALL-E 2 also illustrate opportunities for production efficiency and the creation of new types of semi-automated content.Other possible developments in 2023?More newspapers will stop daily print production this year due to rising print costs and weakening of distribution networks.We may also see a further spate of venerable titles switching to an online-only model.TV and broadcast news will be at the forefront of journalistic layoffs as audiences are hit by news fatigue and competition from streamers.More TV broadcasters will talk openly about a time when linear transmissions might be turned off.Netflixs partial switch to an ad-based model increases the pressure further on advertising revenue.In last years report we predicted an explosion of creativity in short-form video storytelling in youth-based social networks.This year well see more publishers embracing these techniques while videos get longer in the search of sustainable revenue.Expect to see a correction in the creator economy this year.While many individual journalism businesses that have been started on Substack and other platforms continue to thrive,the pressure of delivering to constant deadlines on your own is relentless,and creator funds and similar monetary incentives offered by some platforms cant be relied on to endure.Collectives and micro-companies could be a new trend for 2023.Its almost impossible to predict Elon Musks next move at Twitter,but there is likely to be an enormous gap between rhetoric and delivery as the complexities of running a creative and outspoken global community becomes clearer.Musk is likely to step down as CEO sooner rather than later and a further change of ownership cant be ruled out.THE REUTERS INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF JOURNALISM6 Meanwhile Smart glasses and VR headsets,building blocks of the metaverse,will continue to attract attention,especially with Apple expected to join the party with its first headset.The addition of legs to Facebooks metaverse has taken eight years and billions of dollars of investment.The roll out of these wholesome avatars this year wont win round the internal or external critics or make the concept any more relevant for journalism.Legs are coming soon!Are you excited?7JOURNALISM,MEDIA,AND TECHNOLOGY TRENDS AND PREDICTIONS 20231.Inflation,Uncertainty,and Squeeze on Spending Clouds Prospects for JournalismThis time last year few predicted Vladimir Putins invasion of Ukraine,an event that has triggered an energy crisis and spiralling inflation across many countries.All this has reminded us of the value of on-the-ground reporting,and expert analysis at times of uncertainty,but it has also made the funding of such journalism more precarious.Advertisers are pulling back at the same time as households reduce spending and publishers face rising costs on multiple fronts.Those that still rely heavily on print have been particularly badly affected,with the cost of paper doubling in some cases.Towards the end of 2022,this perfect storm led to a number of layoffs,spending freezes,and other cost-cutting measures.In our survey,less than half(44%)of our sample of editors,CEOs,and digital leaders say they are confident about their business prospects in the year ahead,with almost as many(37%)uncertain and around a fifth(19%)expressing low confidence.Less than half of publishers are confident about the year aheadQ6.To what extent are you confident about your companys business prospects in the year ahead.N=303.In the United States,Gannett plans to cut its news division by a further 6%,losing around 200 staff.The Washington Post is discontinuing its 60-year-old print magazine,CNN is laying off hundreds of people,and NPR is preparing to make significant cuts as a result of a financial black hole.Its a similar picture in many countries around the world.6Our industry survey captures mixed confidence197D%Business prospects in2023Not confidentNeither norConfident5Bleak commercial outlet for the year aheadTHE REUTERS INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF JOURNALISM8Digital-born companies are not immune.BuzzFeed is losing another 180 employees,while Morning Brew is axing 14%of its workforce.Falling traffic from big social platforms like Facebook(Meta)and Twitter,which are both heading in new directions,has compounded the problem,especially for companies that have become dependent on social distribution.Spending by advertisers is unpredictable.Distributed revenue is down.Traditional social media players,which had started to restrain their unpredictability,have imploded Meta most impactfully,Twitter most spectacularly.The foggy picture makes it difficult to plan.And the echoes of the pandemic which still isnt over have frayed nerves.Digital-born ad-based news organisation,United States Elsewhere many European publishers have seen a worrying decline in print-based subscriptions partly linked to breakdown in distribution networks and higher levels of churn overall.We see a post Corona-slump,inflation,and troubles with print distribution,so there is less confidence than a year ago,says Philippe Remarque,Publisher and Director of Journalism at DPG in the Netherlands.Its a similar story in France according to a CEO of one leading publisher:News magazines are losing print and digital subscribers while the price of paper is rising.Outside Europe,publishers large and small face similar pressures.Reader revenue continues to grow although at a slower pace,says Styli Charalambous,CEO of the Daily Maverick in South Africa.Advertising and commercial sponsorships are expected to be tougher to grow,if at all,he says.Any publication that still has a heavy dependence on print circulation or advertising revenue is likely to run into severe difficulties this year.Regional and local newspapers are especially vulnerable,potentially leading to more government intervention in some countries to support the sector.Broadcasters also face increasing disruption with rapidly declining audiences across all age groups for linear news bulletins and opinion programming.It doesnt help that most commercial TV and radio providers remain overly dependent on advertising or carriage fees and generate little direct revenue from viewers or listeners.Netflixs decision to take advertisements will add further pressure while public broadcasters face funding cuts amid intensifying attacks by politicians and rival publishers.What will happen this year?Haircut for print titles Expect more newspapers to slim down editions,stop seven day a week publication,and even close print editions altogether.Regional and local titles seem most vulnerable(Newsquest in the UK has recently converted five regional titles)along with a host of magazine titles that have already moved to an online-only model.With fewer copies being sold,distribution networks are also weakening and expect some to follow the example of US publishers in leveraging the public mail1 or even starting their own delivery businesses.Green consumerism could add further pressure to move away from print.1 https:/www.poynter.org/business-work/2022/more-newspapers-consider-a-pivot-to-postal-delivery-to-cut-costs-and-ease-headaches/9JOURNALISM,MEDIA,AND TECHNOLOGY TRENDS AND PREDICTIONS 2023Broadcasters experiment witH more digital projectsThe collapse of CNN last year suggested there is little future for stand-alone linear news subscriptions,but expect to see increased attempts to bundle on-demand and live news into streaming services.CNN is integrating originals content with the Discovery offering and ITVX is putting updating news at the heart of its rebranded streaming service.Meanwhile public broadcasters,such as the BBC,have started to hint that they may need to turn off TV and radio transmissions over the next decade as consumers migrate to apps and websites.2 2 https:/REUTERS INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF JOURNALISM102.Digital Subscriptions and Bundling Offer Some Hope With ad revenue under pressure,upmarket publishers with a print background are pinning their hopes on continued growth in digital subscriptions,memberships and donations,which have been a bright spot for some titles.We have added 70,000 subscribers in the last year,says Edward Roussel,Head of Digital at The Times of London,with other publishers also reporting strong gains.Meanwhile,at the New York Times,subscription revenues rose by more than 10%as it heads towards a goal of 15 million subscribers by 2027.Publicly collated information by FIPP,however,shows that subscription growth may have peaked.FIPP president James Hewes says that,with winter approaching,we may feel the chill of the approaching freeze.3 Despite this,our survey respondents remain surprisingly confident,with two-thirds(68%)expecting some increase in paid content income.Most publishers expect some growth in subscriptions this year Q6.When it comes to your organisations income from digital subscription,digital membership,or donation,which of the following scenarios seems most likely?N=288.Consumers seek out quality sources when times are tough;even if they retain only one news subscription,we feel they will value what we do and want to stick with us.Global business publisherThe consensus is that this year will be more focused on the retention of existing subscribers,rather than adding new ones.Those who have been running subscription operations for some time have a secure base on which to build and hope they can keep some growth through special price offers or by bundling more premium value such as newsletters and events.Price cuts and special offers This will be a key focus for many publishers looking to hang on to new subscribers gained during the Ukraine war and COVID-19.Renegotiating with customer service centres can lead to half-price deals or better,while new subscribers are being offered eye-popping discounts.The Washington Post had an end-of-year deal that was 75%off its premium rate plus a bonus subscription for a friend,while the LA Times,Chicago Tribune,and Boston Globe have six months digital access for$1.4 Other US publications,including the New York Times,routinely offer$1 a week for the first year and the Wall Street Journal is one of many that offers 3 https:/https:/not everyone is pessimistic And especially bullish on subscription and reader revenue.18%3H %Dont knowDown a lotDown a bitFlatUp a bitUp a lot11JOURNALISM,MEDIA,AND TECHNOLOGY TRENDS AND PREDICTIONS 2023reduced cost options for students.Longer trial periods have been another tactic being deployed by some European publishers,reducing income in the short term but hopefully leading to more loyalty in the longer term.With exceptionally low marginal distribution costs online,all publishers trying to grow their subscription numbers will constantly be tempted to(also)compete on price,even as some commercial titles will continue to focus on ad-supported models offering free news.Publishers will talk more about their journalistic values In tough times,messaging about price may not be enough.Expect news media to talk more about their mission and the quality of their journalism linked to specific issues like the war in Ukraine and the climate emergency.In a recent study,INMA found that most(72%)news brands have started to develop positioning that emphasises their journalistic credentials or guiding principles.La Vanguardia in Spain has been highlighting the phrase truth is the first casualty of war when selling subscriptions.Vox Media emphasises its mission to empower with information as it asks for support.The Guardian stresses its fearless,independent journalism.Mission based messaging a growing trend in hard times?Bundling more value by building product extensions An alternative approach has been to try to lock subscribers in through bundling additional features or complementary brands.The New York Times now offers a package that combines core news with its cooking app,games,and Wirecutter review service.Another option combines news from the Times with in-depth sports coverage from recent acquisition The Athletic.These packages,which have been fuelled by smart acquisition,are already at the heart of much of the subscription growth at the Times.CEO Meredith Kopit Levien says bundled subscribers pay more over time and are less likely to cancel.5 Other publishers this year will be looking to copy this playbook6 through(a)developing premium product extensions like games,cooking,books,5 https:/https:/REUTERS INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF JOURNALISM12podcasts,and newsletters,(b)buying other successful subscription publishers that already own a niche,and(c)turning existing brands into a more complementary portfolio.The New York Times explains how news feeds its wider portfolio and vice versaSource:New York Times Investor presentation December 2022Le Figaro is one of many premium publishers adapting the New York Times playbook Cooking app launched in May 2022 adding to the earlier Games app In Norway,leading daily Aftenposten offers an all-access bundle that includes other Schibsted national and regional newspapers such as VG and Bergens Tidende,magazines,and premium podcasts via the PodMe application it recently bought into.Diversified revenue remains a priority for publishers While subscription(80%)remains the top priority in our sample,followed by display advertising(75%),most commercial publishers continue to say that multiple different revenue streams will be important to them this year.The Guardian,for example,combines subscriptions on its app with a donation model,digital advertising,revenue from platforms and foundations,and events too.The Financial Times,which is best known as a subscription publisher,also employs display and native advertising,runs a consultancy which advises other media companies,and has expanded its events business over the last few years,including the annual FT Weekend Festival.13JOURNALISM,MEDIA,AND TECHNOLOGY TRENDS AND PREDICTIONS 2023Most important revenue streams this year for publishers*Other=selling technology,parcel distribution,funding for factchecking,content syndication(and public funding).Q4.Which of the following digital revenue streams are likely to be important or very important for your company in 2023?Choose all that apply.N=273(excluding most publicly funded public broadcasters).Beyond paid content,the fastest growing income stream in recent years has come from funding from tech platforms.A third(33%)of our respondents say these payments for content licensing or innovation are now an important revenue stream up 4pp on last year.This reflects behind-closed-doors deals that have been done by Facebook and Google in various territories,mostly as a result of government pressure,that have been criticised for favouring large legacy players.Google now pays more than 300 publishers for content across the European Union7 as well as in other parts of the world like Australia and Canada and Facebook has been paying up to$20 million to some large publishers for content it includes in its news section.On top of this,platforms now pay large sums to fact-checking organisations and news agencies around the world,as well for innovation schemes and research.The upshot is that the news industry continues to be unevenly and opaquely intertwined with big platforms in terms of both reach and revenue.Even as critical coverage of the tech industry continues,the public may wonder about the lack of transparency and the possible conflicts of interest.What could happen this year?rows Between platforms and puBlisHers Hot-up Multi-year deals struck with publishers are starting to expire and Facebooks parent company,Meta,has reportedly said it will not be renewing current arrangements in the United States,leaving some publishers with a revenue shortfall of tens of millions of dollars.8 The tech giant is looking to make cuts in the face of weakening advertising and has a range of other priorities including investing in the metaverse.In the face of government pressure,it has threatened to pull out from news altogether,which would up the temperature in what has often been a fraught relationship with leading publishers.Meanwhile,Amazon,Apple,Microsoft,and TikTok are all rapidly growing their advertising businesses,competing directly with news media,and it 7 https:/https:/important revenue streams this year 115%6 &38Xu%Other*MicropaymentRelated businessesSupport from philanthropic funds/foundationsDonations(one off or recurring consumer donations)E-commerceFunding from platforms(content licensing orEventsNative advertisingDisplay advertisingSubscription/membership(ongoing payments)!#$%&()%* ,-#%.$,/*/-0123&.%*4 )#& 56# /,176,4 ,-7/&73.#.$%.8 ,-1./,#%,#)0,4 .3# /,93,4265* .76,4 ,-:Q4.Which of the following digital revenue streams are likely to be important or very important for your company in 2023?-choose all that apply.N=269(excluding publicly funded public broadcasters)Was 74%in 2020Was 81%in 2020Up on last year( 4)Was 13%in 2020innovation projects)Was 12%in 2020Was 75%in 2020THE REUTERS INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF JOURNALISM14is not at all clear that relations between publishers and these platforms will be any simpler than between publishers and the duopoly.9puBlisHer alliances aim to turn tHe tide News organisations have long complained about big platforms taking much of the revenue but now the imminent demise of support for third-party cookies is threatening to make the situation even worse.Privacy-related changes threaten to reduce ad revenue further in the short term but are prompting publishers to start initiatives to collect their own(first-party)data that could be the basis for a more sustainable future.The Swiss OneLog system10 is now used by leading commercial publishers in the country including Ringier and TX media brands,as well as the public service broadcaster SRG SSR.This already accounts for around a quarter of the Swiss population with more growth to come.Participating publishers say that together we are stronger and that partnership can help them compete with platforms for attention and advertising.Portuguese publishers have been operating the Nonio common login for a few years and a similar approach is under way in the Czech Republic(Czech Ad ID).Unified logins or common identifiers can also allow participating publishers to share information about the browsing history of users in an anonymous and privacy-compliant way which helps them serve better-targeted advertisements and content,though that is not currently the plan for OneLog.The Swiss OneLog system now has 2 million users premium ads and cleaner weBsites Expect more publishers to follow the lead of Bloomberg News in abandoning all programmatic advertising(from January 2023)and focusing on direct sales.This audience first approach is recognition that excessive ad density and poor user experience has contributed to the problems of the news industry by confusing users and undermining trust.11 Another indication of the shift to premium came with the historic GE takeover of the New York Times,a multichannel and multimedia campaign with a price tag to match.129 https:/https:/onelog.ch/en/11 https:/https:/TECHNOLOGY TRENDS AND PREDICTIONS 2023international growtH on tHe cards With home markets drying up,more companies are looking to expand abroad.Britains biggest news publisher,Reach,is preparing to launch websites in the United States for the Mirror and Express,recruiting around 100 new local journalists in the process.Its also launching the Irish Star aimed at Irish Americans.This follows the success of the US Sun,owned by News UK which has more than doubled its traffic in the United States in the last year,and the Daily Mail which runs substantial newsrooms in New York and Los Angeles.This is part of a wider international trend where publishers such as Le Monde have also looked to acquire English readers as part of its mission to double its subscriber base by 2025.THE REUTERS INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF JOURNALISM163.Peak Internet and the Challenge of News AvoidanceAfter decades of continuous growth,we have started to see a decline in the amount of time we are spending online,according to data from research agency GWI.13 Overall time with the internet is down by 13%,after record high usage during COVID-19 lockdowns,suggesting we may have reached peak internet.This is a highly significant change that could be a natural function of market saturation but the agency suggests that it may also reflect the anxiety people feel when using online and social media.In terms of online news,it is hard to discern a clear picture.Around four-in-ten(42%),publishers say year-on-year traffic to their websites is up,with 58%reporting that traffic has been static or falling,despite a succession of important news stories from the Ukraine invasion,to rising energy prices,climate change,and in the UK,the death of the Queen.Over half of industry respondents say online traffic has been flat or declining Q2.Compared with a year ago,has traffic to your online news site/apps gone up,gone down,or stayed the same?N=303.In thinking about the reasons for flat or declining engagement,the vast majority of publishers(72%)are concerned about a trend highlighted in the 2022 Digital News Report where more users are actively avoiding the news.Digital News Report data show that this selective avoidance,often involving important stories such as politics,has doubled in some countries since 2017,because many people feel that media coverage is overly negative,repetitive,hard to trust,and leaves people feeling powerless.Publishers are deeply worried about selective news avoidance Q18.There is evidence that some audiences avoid some news topics because they feel overloaded or it makes them depressed.How worried are you about the issue of news avoidance/fatigue?N=206.Writing in the Washington Post,journalist Amanda Ripley calls for an approach that takes into account how humans receive the news to a much greater extent.She calls for journalism that explains the news better,gives people hope and points to solutions rather than just identifying problems.14 13 https:/https:/traffic is rising for some but flat or falling for others253B%Gone downFlatGone up58%static or falling14Online traffic is rising for some but flat or falling for others253B%Online trafficGone downFlatGone up12r%Not worriedNeither/NorWorried!#$%!#$#%&%#(&)#* #%,-,%./#%-0)* #%-(.&)%*#1%,.2& %0 %-%*-,&.*-3%2.3&,& 4V$-&*#%-*)s&/-,#% -*8#%9# -0#%,#:%;#3%.(#$3.-)#)%.$%&,%/-6#%,#/%)#2$#);-,&80#?CD!&$%7./2-$#)%1&,%-%:#-$%-8.4-%,$-;& %,.%:.0$%.*3&*#%*#1%&,#-228.*#4%8.*#%).1*%.$%,-:#)%,#%-/#?AEFB17JOURNALISM,MEDIA,AND TECHNOLOGY TRENDS AND PREDICTIONS 2023In our survey we find almost universal enthusiasm for explanatory journalism(94%)and Q&A formats(87%)this year,but a greater degree of scepticism around ideas like solutions journalism(73%)let alone moves to increase the number of positive stories(48%).This debate is often seen as a zero-sum game but our research suggests that audiences want journalists to continue to cover difficult stories and that they also want more inspiration,a broader agenda,and more fun.Possible ways to counter news avoidance/fatigue Proportion that say each is extremely or very important this year Q19.The following is a list of approaches that some media companies are looking at to combat news avoidance/fatigue.How important,if at all,does your company consider each of these initiatives to be this year?N=211.Solutions and constructive journalism do seem to be picking up momentum with publishers.In Germany three media companies,Deutsche Welle,RTL News,and Rheinische Post have joined forces to create the Bonn Institute for Journalism and Constructive Dialogue with a mission to promote more positive debates and take more notice of journalisms social responsibility.Meanwhile The Solutions Journalism Network has collected more than 14,000 examples of solutions reporting from around the world.The BBC runs a portal called Uplifting Stories,the Guardian has The Upside,but these stories rarely make front pages or become central to editorial meetings.Optimist Daily,The Good News Network,and Positive News are just a few examples of independent websites trying to redress the balance.Young people in particular seem to be embracing these approaches,with independent creators such as sustainability scientist Alaina Wood garbagequeen attracting large audiences on TikTok for her positive climate news round-ups.15Publishers deeply concerned about avoidance 32Hdefs%OtherPositive storiesSlow journalismBroader agendaInspirational storiesSolutions/constructive journalismQ&A formats(answering questions)Explanatory journalismPossible ways to counter these trends(extremely or very important this year)Q19.The following is a list of approaches that some media companies are looking at to combat news avoidance/fatigue.How important,if at all,does your company consider each of these initiatives to be this year?(N=211)More scepticismabout these approachesNear universal acceptance of theseTHE REUTERS INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF JOURNALISM18What could happen this year?reasons to Be cHeerful Publishers will be integrating features that allow people to see more(or less)positive news.As part of its latest redesign,Pink News has included a mood control button as part of personalisation options.The LGBTQ publisher says around 25%of readers said they would prefer to read just uplifting news stories,in a recent survey.But for others it provides an option to take a break from negative stories when they need it.Uplifting news from Pink,Optimist Daily and Good Climate News from Alaina Wood Human centred news Elsewhere look out for initiatives that put human stories at the heart of the conversation.The Human Journalism Network is a worldwide sharing platform for inspirational and high-impact stories.By sharing these stories across countries and languages the founders hope to develop more impact for less money at a time when on the ground reporting is under pressure.The Network started in 2021 by sharing content across eight Latin American countries,but will expand globally by early 2023,supported by the ICFJ,with content in English and Spanish.more tools to Help audiences take control The Cold Turkey is a cross-browser extension that can block specific web pages,the entire internet,or your computer for set periods of time.It can be used for any activity that causes anxiety,not just news.Self-Control does a similar job for Mac users,while FocusMe reminds you to take regular breaks and can also be used by parents to limit childrens gaming time or web access.Forest turns the idea of self-control into a game with trees and plant flourishing when you stay away from your phone.You can earn points to help plant real-world trees.19JOURNALISM,MEDIA,AND TECHNOLOGY TRENDS AND PREDICTIONS 20234.Step Change in News Medias Coverage of the Climate EmergencyThe last year has seen another spate of extreme weather events across the globe,including severe heatwaves in China,famines in Somalia and Ethiopia,wildfires in California,and drought across Europe not to mention catastrophic flooding in Pakistan.The news media are routinely criticised for covering these stories breathlessly,without joining up the wider dots or following through on the lasting consequences.Others argue that the media have too often treated climate as a discrete subject,rather than as an integral part of wider political and economic decision-making.Moves are afoot to change this with enhanced specialist teams,and new strategies for sustainable journalism,according to our survey results(below).Around two-thirds of our sample(63%)of news executives now rate their own coverage as good,even if many also admit that engaging audiences with the often-depressing outlook for the planet can be a tough sell.How publishers rate their own climate coverageQ11.How would you rate how well your news organisation is currently covering climate change?N=265.Changes that news organisations are making to improve coverage furtherQ12.Which of the following,if any,have you done recently to improve your climate journalism?N=275.Q11.How would you rate how wellyour news organisation is currently covering climate change?N=243How publishers rate climate change coverage Two thirds think their own coverage is now good(up on last year)11&cdNeither norGood20What measures have you taken to improve climate coverage17#013DI%None of the aboveTrained staff on climate reportingDeveloped a climate strategyHired more staff to cover climate issuesSustainability and carbon footprint goalsMeasures to ensure climate considered by all beatsCreated a climate team to raise profileTHE REUTERS INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF JOURNALISM20In our survey half of respondents(49%)say that they have created a news climate team with just under a third(31%)hiring more staff to cover different aspects of the crisis.Amongst these are National Public Radio and the Washington Post,which announced in November 2022 that it would be tripling the size of its climate team to 30 people.Enhanced coverage includes Climate Lab,a section that uses data and graphics to show the impact of global heating,a climate advice columnist,and consumer guides to help consumers navigate choices about how to live sustainable lives.Theres also a new part of the website focusing on solutions,including potential technological breakthroughs.Many other publishers have launched podcasts and newsletters this year.Three in ten(30%)say they have developed a strategy to improve climate coverage.One example comes from the Norwegian public broadcaster NRK which aims to do more than just explain the science.It also plans to engage audiences with humour and heart and to ensure that there is real accountability for pledges made by politicians,businesses,and environmental organisations.15 Meanwhile The News Movement(TNM),a start-up aimed at creating content for younger audiences,is building content around the idea of a Better Planet,bringing together climate,biodiversity,solutions/innovation,and the impact of food and diet.This approach came out of detailed audience research into the subjects that interested the target group.A third of news executives(33%)also say they have taken steps in the last year to improve sustainability.Schibsted,for example,has been working to reduce the carbon footprint of its reporting and production and this is backed up by an annual sustainability report with a dedicated unit working on these issues across the company.Around a quarter of our survey respondents(23%)say they have embarked on training programmes to increase awareness,with more than four in ten(44%)recognising that elements of the climate story need to be part of wider coverage across the newsroom.In Austria,publishers recently got together to create a set of guidelines for newsrooms including the accurate use of language,coverage of solutions as well as problems,separation of fact and opinion,and the creation of resources and structures to support better coverage across disciplines.16 Cross-country communities are being developed,including our own Oxford Climate Journalism Network(OCJN)to share best practice.17 15 Forthcoming EU Report,Climate Journalism that Works.16 https:/www.klimajournalismus.at/neues-vom-netzwerk/ein-klima-kodex-fuer-eine-angemessene-klimaberichterstattung-in-oesterreich/17 https:/reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/oxford-climate-journalism-network21JOURNALISM,MEDIA,AND TECHNOLOGY TRENDS AND PREDICTIONS 20235.Tech Platforms Suffer from Overreach,Hubris,and New Competition Twitter laid off three-quarters of its workforce and alienated its biggest advertisers this year.Metas stock fell by about two-thirds(66%),with some staff complaining that Mark Zuckerbergs obsession with the metaverse was in danger of killing the company.Few could have imagined such seismic developments just a year ago but Big Tech has suffered a series of reverses linked to a slowdown in digital advertising,privacy changes on Apples iOS platform,and falling consumer interest in many of their products.For younger users in particular,we find clear evidence that first-generation social networks are losing their appeal in favour of fun-filled apps like TikTok(see chart below right).Facebook share falls Jan 2022Dec 2022 Facebook reach falls with U25s 20172022 Aggregate data from 46 markets.Source:Nasdaq(accessed via Google).Q12a.Which,if any,of the following have you used in the last week for any purpose?Base:201722:1824s 11500.Source:Reuters Institute Digital News Report 2022.The dramatic rise of TikTok,which is owned by Chinese media giant ByteDance and has around one billion regular users,is not just existentially worrying for Facebook,which has seen its user base shrink and age by five years at the same time.Google is already seeing some of its lucrative search traffic peel away,with ad revenue well below market expectations.18 Amazon also fears TikToks potential as a shopping and payment platform.Meanwhile Elon Musk has alienated journalists and many others with his unpredictable behaviour following his$44bn takeover of Twitter.Concerns have mounted over the sacking of staff responsible for platform integrity,the suspension of critical journalists from the platform,and the flip-flopping over the role of blue ticks for verified sources.It seems Elon lacks media literacy,has taken a turn for the conspiratorial right,and at worse is driving Twitter into the ground to become a backwater which advertisers are rightly scared of,says Tom Grundy,Editor-in-Chief and founder of the Hong Kong Free Press.18 https:/DATA FROM 46 MARKETSTHE REUTERS INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF JOURNALISM22One research group has predicted that Twitter will lose more than 30 million users in the next few years if the experience worsens.19 Against this background it is not surprising to see publishers in our survey saying they will be putting less effort into both Facebook(-30 net score)and Twitter(net score-28)and much more effort into TikTok( 63 net score)that represents a 19-point increase compared with last year.Publishers will be putting more effort into TikTok and less into Facebook and Twitter Q9.When it comes to distribution and engagement via third-party platforms,will you be putting more or less effort into the following platforms in the coming year.Note:Numbers shown represent those who say they will put more effort,minus those who say they will put less effort.N=275.These data suggest that publishers will be prioritising video platforms like TikTok and YouTube this year amid evidence that these are good ways to engage younger users.A recent Reuters Institute report shows that around half(49%)of top publishers across dozens of countries are now active on TikTok,despite concerns about Chinese ownership and the security of user data.20Journalists remain ambivalent about Elon Musks TwitterDespite their reservations about Elon Musk,many journalists find it hard to contemplate a future without Twitter.It remains a one-stop shop for real-time news,as well as a good way to keep in touch with specialist sources,and to promote personal brands.Overall,the majority of our respondents(51%)say it would be bad for journalism if Twitter were to implode.Twitter has brought many benefits to journalism in finding stories,getting testimonies and accessing information,points out Clara Jimnez Cruz from the fact-checking site Maldita.es.Others 19 https:/How Publishers are Learning to Create and Distribute News on TikTok,Reuters Institute,December 2022:https:/reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/how-publishers-are-learning-create-and-distribute-news-tiktok-30-280681447505263More effort in TikTok and less in Facebook/Twitter25TikTokInstagramGoogle other(AMP,Showcase)Facebook0406020-40-20Net:MoreNet:LessTwitter TwitchYouTubeGoogle SearchApple NewsSnapchat 19 5-23-2223JOURNALISM,MEDIA,AND TECHNOLOGY TRENDS AND PREDICTIONS 2023stress its historic role in giving space to alternative sources of news:In my country Twitter is an important space of freedom to reach audiences that dont have another source of information,says Luz Mely Reyes,General Director at the independent Venezuelan outlet Efecto Cocuyo,who runs a successful streaming show on Twitter.By contrast,around one in five(17%)think it would be good for journalism,with some respondents suggesting that far too much time is currently spent listening to unrepresentative elites:In Ecuador journalists waste too much time on Twitter,says Isabela Ponce,Chief Editor at GK.City.Audiences think reporting things on the platform is journalism and it is not,she says.If Twitter disappeared it would leave a big hole for most journalists Q9.If Twitter were to disappear entirely,do you think this would be good or bad for journalism?N=283.Others feel that,while Twitter has become a key tool for journalists,it has also reduced traffic to mainstream websites,contributed to the spread of misinformation,and polluted debates:The culture of Twitter thoughtless outrage has spread to media,making it more shrill,argues Edward Roussel Head of Digital at The Times and The Sunday Times.I will miss it on a personal level,but I think it would actually strengthen serious journalism,says Peter Wolodarski,Editor-in-Chief at Dagens Nyheter in Sweden.In our survey,few respondents could see an obvious replacement.Some have migrated to Mastodon,but most describe an empty and fragmented experience.When forced to make a choice,four in ten(42%)selected LinkedIn,a network that has invested in more editorial staff and new features to drive news conversation on the platform in recent years.21 Beyond that,respondents say they might mix different platforms for discovery and distribution but there is no one-stop shop:There is no replacement for the“old”Twitter.The idea was genius.Mastodon is not a replacement,says Wolfgang Vichtl,Chief Correspondent at ARD in Germany.This year were likely to see the emergence of a few Twitter alternatives.Many will be watching Post,a network created by former Waze CEO Noam Bardin.Still in beta mode,it has pledged to create a space for civil conversations and is hoping to bring premium publishers onto the platform with some kind of micropayment system.2221 https:/pressgazette.co.uk/news/linkedin-news-editors-journalists-team/22 https:/www.niemanlab.org/2022/11/post-the-latest-twitter-alternative-is-betting-big-on-micropayments-for-news/Q9.!#$%&()#%()(#*# &,-.(-)#(/&)(012# *#1*3#4&/5#4&,#%*30 #6(7#8#N=283If Twitter disappeared it would leave a big hole32Q%Dont knowGood for journalismBad for journalismTHE REUTERS INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF JOURNALISM24Where might journalists go after Twitter?Q10.If Twitter disappeared,which network would you be most likely to use professionally instead for accessing information,building your profile and or distributing content?Choose one of the following.N=288.For many the chaos at Twitter in the last few months is an illustration that current social media models are broken and that debate in the public sphere should not be subject to the whims of a few billionaires in Silicon Valley.Some are even asking if the era of mass social media is over.23 Connecting the world in one town square seemed like a good idea at the time,but people have been drifting away for some time to private or semi-private communities where conversations are less toxic and more meaningful.Community-building tools like Discord are part of that trend as is Mastodon.Ethan Zuckerman,Associate Professor at the University of Massachusetts has been making the case for smaller,decentralised networks,that have the users interests at heart.24 He and his team at MIT have experimented in the past with a browser extension that gives users more control over their feeds from multiple networks and were likely to see more discussion of these ideas in the coming year.What else could happen this year in platforms?faceBook completes its Break-up witH news Facebook is reorientating itself towards mobile entertainment and commerce and even further away from news this year as it looks to revitalise engagement on the platform.Human curation of Facebook News has already been pulled,Instant Articles are set to be withdrawn in April 2023,and a number of those recently made redundant were in the Facebook Journalism Project or in the news partnerships team.Few would be surprised to see the News tab disappear entirely in the next few years.Facebook says that less than 3%of what people see in their feed are posts with links to news and that it doesnt make sense to invest in areas that dont align with user preferences.The cost of doing business with the news industry may be another factor:In many markets,the complexity of our partnerships is growing because of government regulation around news,wrote Metas Campbell Brown when explaining the companys pivot toward digital creators and short-form video.25 23 https:/https:/www.sciencespo.fr/en/news/ethan-zuckerman-at-sciences-po25 https:/www.inma.org/blogs/Digital-Platform-Initiative/post.cfm/meta-speeds-its-exit-from-news-media-partnerships27Q10.If Twitter disappeared,which network would you be most likely to use professionally instead for accessing information,building your profile and or distributing content?Chose one of the following.N=288Where would journalists go instead of Twitter?3%3%4%5%7%9B%TelegramInstagramYouTubeTikTokFacebookA new networkMastodonLinkedInEmerging networks like Post and Hive are mentioned by some25JOURNALISM,MEDIA,AND TECHNOLOGY TRENDS AND PREDICTIONS 2023a year of social searcH?A Google executive recently revealed that 40%of young people now go to Instagram or TikTok,rather than use their own search or maps products when they are looking for a place to eat.26 Instagram searches are geared to help people to stay updated on trends as well as travel and fashion,while Snapchats Maps are optimised for local business.This shift is also happening in the news,as younger users turn to using social discovery features such as hashtags and collections as well as search itself to find out about the latest developments in Ukraine.The example below(left)shows how poorly represented mainstream media are in these results so a key focus for publishers will be to better optimise news and explainer content for these environments.Clearer branding may also be needed to ensure that reliable publisher content stands out in these result sets.tiktok starts to look more like otHer social networks TikToks For You feed,which surfaces the most entertaining(and informative)content from across the network,has been a key differentiator during its growth phase but now it is planning to add features that allow closer connection with friends.TikTok Now captures what you are doing at a particular moment using your phones back and front camera essentially a direct copy of functionality of the Be Real app.TikTok is also expanding the length of its videos and considering support for landscape aspect ratios27 to compete with YouTube and open up more advertising possibilities for creators.26 https:/https:/www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63981657THE REUTERS INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF JOURNALISM26TikTok Now is one of a number of social features that aim to drive more creativity increased regulatory pressure on tiktok As the networks influence grows,well see more government and public scrutiny of its algorithms and impact on society.Recent research by Newsguard suggests that new users were typically exposed to misinformation about the war in Ukraine within 40 minutes of using the platform.28 TikTok has also struggled to deal with the volume of misleading election content in the last year,including those in Germany,Brazil,and the Philippines.29 Partly in response to these critiques,TikTok has set up election hubs containing official and verified sources,increased moderation,and labelled some news outlets as state sponsored.Beyond misinformation,we can expect more attention on the amount of data TikTok collects and whether Chinese authorities have access to it30 especially if geopolitical tensions deteriorate further.Mathias Dpfner,CEO of media group Axel Springer,has called for all democracies to ban the app,and several Republican politicians in the United States have made a similar case.India has already banned TikTok for its 200 million internet users over security concerns and the UK parliament recently shut down its account.platform regulation Begins to Bite The introduction of the Digital Services Act(DSA)and Digital Markets Act(DMA)this year in the European Union will put new limits around the activities of the biggest tech companies on issues ranging from harmful content to unfair competition.Full implementation will take many years but early test cases in the courts should set the tone and the hefty potential penalties involved will make Elon Musk think as he contemplates pushing Twitter towards more edgy speech.By contrast the UK has watered down proposals in its upcoming Online Safety Bill to force tech giants to remove content that is legal but harmful from their platforms after campaigners and lawmakers raised concerns that the move could curtail free speech.Elsewhere,legislation that constrains what can be said in social media is already on the statute books in many countries,including authoritarian states and those where democracy is fragile.In our survey over half of our respondents said they were worried about the implications,including for journalism.28 https:/https:/https:/TECHNOLOGY TRENDS AND PREDICTIONS 2023Concern that legislation could be used to stifle free speech this year Q7.How worried,or not,are you about the possible implications for free speech from platform regulation and/or government intervention?N=287.All eyes this year will be on India,where new rules will give government control over the content moderation decisions that social media companies make for the first time.31 Critics argue that this will incentivise platforms to remove or suppress any speech unpalatable to the government,or those exerting political pressure.Platform companies content moderation policies and their practical enforcement have already led to instances where the work of journalists have been restricted in problematic ways.3231 https:/https:/reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/news/how-respond-disinformation-while-protecting-free-speech20T%Dont knowNot at allNot so muchWorried(a lot or somewhat)Q7.How worried,or not,are you about the possible implications for free speech from platform regulation and/or government intervention?N=287How worried are you about regulation and free speechTHE REUTERS INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF JOURNALISM286.Format Innovation:The Shift to Audio and Video ContinuesOne of the underlying megatrends in digital has been the explosion of formats and channels that publishers can use to reach consumers.Owned and operated websites are now only one of many ways of engaging audiences.Better data connections have opened up possibilities beyond just text and pictures and smartphone adoption has accelerated the use of visual journalism,vertical video,and podcasts.In our survey,the majority of publishers say that they will be focusing on podcasts and other digital audio(72%),email newsletters(69%),and digital video(67%)this year.Interest in short-form video production has grown( 4pp)partly in response to the changing social media strategies detailed in the previous section.By contrast there is less interest in developing applications for the metaverse or for voice assistants,where journalism use cases have proved hard to identify.Where publishers will be putting more resources this year Q14.Thinking beyond traditional websites,in which of the following,if any,are you planning to invest more resources in 2023?Select all that apply.N=286.Amid the unpredictability of social media,most publishers see investing in podcasts and newsletters as the best way to build a deeper connection with audiences and to encourage them to come back more frequently.With an overload of general news content,publishers are increasingly looking to develop more unique or specialist content that can be bundled with existing subscriptions(as we found earlier)or can be charged for separately.In both cases we are starting to see a more strategic portfolio approach emerging with a focus on personality hosts,intelligent curation,and a lighter tone.Examples include the Due Diligence Newsletter from the Financial Times which looks at the latest dealmaking,and the HotPod newsletter from Vox Media which looks at the business of podcasting.Other publishers are looking to build cross-platform franchises such as Tortoise Medias Sensemaker,which is available in both Where will publishers be putting more resource this year?322%5%7Rgir%None of the above/Dont knowApplications for the metaverse(AR/VR)Applications for voice platforms(Alexa,GoogleAssistant,Siri etc)Visual journalism(data viz etc)Digital video(live,short form,longerdocumentaries)Email newslettersPodcasts and other digital audio!#$%&(#)* #* %#,-./,*.#-01%2*3E#&-62/4*4#/6#-* %7#/86-#4%#/4#3%7.#9&-7*/*#/,-(#)* #%9/,#/6#6(*/,#36%-#*-Q14.Thinking beyond traditional websites,which of the following,if any,are you planning to invest more resource on in 2022?Select all that apply N=286 4-8-7-329JOURNALISM,MEDIA,AND TECHNOLOGY TRENDS AND PREDICTIONS 2023newsletter and podcast formats.Publishers like Tortoise Media have pivoted to a newsletter and audio focus and say that these have helped them bring in significant numbers of new members.33 What else might happen this year in digital audio?reporter reads get a Human voice But is it tHe real tHing?The New York Times is due to launch its new audio product early in 2023 and this will include a significant upgrade on the idea of reporter reads.Each story starts with a personal intro from the reporter themselves with some biographical material and then a lightly illustrated treatment that may include some sound design or illustrated clips.This human approach doesnt scale easily,but is a response to disappointing results from stories read by synthetic voices on many publisher sites and across many non-English languages.But artificial intelligence(AI)voices are getting smarter and it is now possible to clone a journalists voice with extraordinary accuracy.Aftenposten,one of Norways largest news publications,recently cloned the voice of its podcast host using AI technology while News24 in South Africa has also trained its systems with the voice of a popular actor for its news and feature stories.34 Human approach from NYT audio Cloned voice from News24 Read articles sold as a subscription benefitSubscription publishers consistently tell us that those that consume audio are amongst their most loyal customers and spend more time with their products.will advertisements spoil tHe podcast experience?We may have reached saturation point in terms of the number of podcasts,but not in terms of revenue.Ad revenues in the US are set to double to$4bn by 2024,according to the Interactive 33 https:/https:/beyondwords.io/voices/THE REUTERS INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF JOURNALISM30Advertising Bureau and PricewaterhouseCoopers.35 This is mostly related to better ad tech rather than higher listening figures.Most ads in the US are now dynamically inserted and can be targeted at different ages,genders,and locations as well as content types.In the UK some of the biggest news podcasts,such as The News Agents with Emily Maitlis and Jon Sopel,and The Rest is Politics with Rory Stewart and Alastair Campbell,should also be able to capitalise on these trends but there is a danger that growing ad density and a less personal approach could damage the podcast experience.Expect to see premium ad-free options becoming a standard part of podcast offers this year.What else might happen this year in newsletters?local newsletters Boon Newsletters dont require constant updates and off-the-shelf tools such as Substack can help entrepreneurs to create content and make money with a few clicks.These low-cost models have provided a blueprint for how local media could develop in the future.In the United States,6AM City and Axios Local have pioneered this approach,with 6AM City reaching around 1 million subscribers across more than 20 cities,with expected revenue of more than$10m in 2022.36 In the UK,independent local news outlets the Manchester Mill,Liverpool Post,and Sheffield Tribune have all reported encouraging growth in the number of paying email newsletter subscribers.Traditional outlets are getting in on the act too,with regional publisher Reach setting up an Email Innovation Lab with the help of Google funding.This will experiment with passion-based newsletters centred on communities of interest around Bristol and new borough-based newsletters in parts of London.6AM City now reaches 1 million subscribers in more than 20 cities 35 https:/https:/voices.media/theres-hope-again-for-local-news-as-innovative-start-ups-find-their-feet/31JOURNALISM,MEDIA,AND TECHNOLOGY TRENDS AND PREDICTIONS 2023platform newsletter cHoices narrow Twitter has discontinued its newsletter product Revue and Facebook is also shutting Bulletin,but one alternative gaining traction is LinkedIn.The platform makes it easy to sign up brand loyalists and integrates comments and other useful features.The BBCs Worklife 101 brand is an obvious fit and has almost 1.8m subscribers along with business-focused publications such as Forbes.The French daily LOpinion has also been experimenting with daily news headlines.37LinkedIn Newsletters connect with professional users37 https:/REUTERS INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF JOURNALISM327.Product Direction is Clear but Frustration Remains Over Pace of Change A few years ago,we detected in this report significant tension between editorial,business,and product functions,as well as a lack of understanding about the role of product in a news organisation.But things are starting to change,with more confidence that the right products are being developed(54%agree),a clear process for improving and optimising existing products(54%),and a culture of learning from mistakes(52%).But there is less satisfaction that products and features are being developed quickly enough just 41el their company does a good job in this respect.Even fewer(23%)feel news organisations are good at shutting down old products that have less value,which tends to slow down progress elsewhere.This is in sharp contrast with tech companies like Meta and Twitter that ruthlessly kill features that arent working,as we saw in the previous section.How good are news organisations at different product tasks?Q15.When it comes to product development,how good or bad is your news organisation at the following.?N=286.The Financial Times is one organisation that is trying to speed up the product development process.FT Edit,a curated selection of some of the best features,is the first new product that the title has launched in a decade and represents the start of a more experimental phase where new ideas will be launched and tested with real users much more often.38 Another example of a product that has been spun up using agile techniques is the Washington Posts Newsprint,a personalised review of the journalism consumed in the previous year.Inspired by Spotifys highly successful Wrapped feature,which fills timelines at the end of each year,the product team pivoted the idea towards providing insights on the readers personality after initial feedback showed they were less interested in looking back at what theyd already read.3938 https:/pressgazette.co.uk/news/financial-times-launches-99p-app-ft-edit-to-show-off-a-little-bit-more-to-non-core-audiences/39 https:/www.niemanlab.org/2022/11/the-washington-post-launches-a-year-in-news-a-la-spotify-wrapped/How good are news organisations at different product tasks RISJ Digital News Report 20183516#ARTT%None of the aboveKilling old products that have less valueDeveloping new products or features quicklyLearning from product mistakesImproving and iterating existing productsDeveloping the right productsQ15.When it comes to product development,How good or bad is your news organisationat the following.N=28633JOURNALISM,MEDIA,AND TECHNOLOGY TRENDS AND PREDICTIONS 2023Examples of iterative product development from the Washington Post and FT For some,the biggest barrier to achieving more speed is retaining technical and product staff,given the competitive nature of the sector.But overall,we detect a much more audience-focused approach to product development this year.Instructions from senior managers to just build it have been replaced by processes that identify the problem this solves,and for whom,according to one senior product director at a leading UK publisher.Even so,these more evidence-based approaches can often add time and continue to create tension:Theres still a divide between editorial and product staff which is our greatest barrier to achieving more speed and working together on tough priorities,says a digital leader from a European public broadcaster.Audience needs models help focus developmentAnother key trend is the way in which product and editorial teams have been embracing user needs models and jobs to be done methodologies to help identify opportunities.These processes ask searching questions about what role publisher products can play in a world of abundant media choices.They drill down,for example,into specific problems that audiences have and think about different ways these could be solved.When introduced at the BBC a few years ago,40 the resulting audience models led to commissioning of more content that explained complex events and inspired people and less news that just kept people up to date.These approaches are in some way a response to the challenges around news avoidance we discussed in Section 3,which is one of the reasons that they are resonating with publishers such as the New York Times on both the content and product side.Brought to life in this unofficial user needs map by consultant Dmitry Shishkin,41 it is easy to see how recent acquisitions like Wordle and The Athletic have been shaped by this type of thinking.40 https:/Interpreted by Dmitry Shishkin from New York Times investment deck slides 83 and 84.https:/nytco-REUTERS INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF JOURNALISM34Unofficial user needs model of the New York Times Similar experiments have been developed by other publishers including Conde Nast,Vox,The Atlantic,and Globo in Brazil,with content often tagged in CMS systems to allow continuous measurement of how different content types are performing.42 This year we can expect more examples of user needs models driving new product development,not just content commissioning.42 https:/wan-ifra.org/2022/08/3-key-questions-about-news-needs-your-content-strategy-and-value-proposition/35JOURNALISM,MEDIA,AND TECHNOLOGY TRENDS AND PREDICTIONS 20238.Breakthrough Year for Artificial Intelligence and its Application for JournalismAI chatbots have been widely and justifiably mocked in recent years,43 but the arrival of ChatGPT,from OpenAI,has transformed the debate.Its speed and capabilities are awe-inspiring and frightening at the same time.While the underlying models have been around for some time,ChatGPT has turned these into an accessible prototype that gives a real sense of where AI may be heading.It can tell jokes(but has been trained not to tell racist or sexist ones),come up with plots for a film or book,write computer code,and even summarise the challenges facing local journalism in a few sentences(below).Some view ChatGPT as one of the biggest technological advances since the invention of the internet and is part of a wider trend called generative AI that enables computers to create not just words but also pictures,videos,and even virtual worlds from just a few text prompts.Here is an image of a journalist,in the style of a Raymond Chandler novel,filing a story from a Pacific Beach using a laptop created in seconds using the AI tool MidJourney.Journalist files a story from the beach with a cocktail:Rendered by MidJourney43 https:/REUTERS INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF JOURNALISM36The key point is that generative AI enables computers not just to make existing processes more efficient,but use a range of existing assets to create something new.For the journalist in that Raymond Chandler novel,this raises existential questions but also opens up a range of new possibilities.This year well start to see more of these tools being opened up to creators,journalists,and others,allowing us to create new versions of ourselves,of others,and the world around us.Lensa is an app that allows you to magic avatars of yourself and remove unwanted objects from any picture with no skills required.These apps have already been criticised for stealing from artists,using predatory data-sharing practices,and promoting sexualised stereotypes,but that wont stop them taking over social media timelines this year.Magic avatars will take over social media timelines this year Left:The author in different guises(Lensa),Right:Example images from another AI Art app(Facetune)The implications for journalism are not entirely clear but tools like MidJourney and DALL-E are already being used to create illustrative art for articles and blog posts.More ambitiously,Semafor,the recently launched US start-up,has created several videos under a Witness strand where personal testimonies from Ukraine are powerfully illustrated by AI animations in the absence of real footage.But similar deep learning models can also be used to create propaganda,notably a deep fake of President Zelensky telling Ukrainian citizens to lay down their arms soon after the Russian Invasion(below right).Semafor has used AI to animate the Ukraine war,but similar tech can be used for deep fakes All this is likely to lead to an explosion of automated or semi-automated media in the next few years for good or ill(the research firm Gartner estimates it will account for 25%of all internet data).It will be easier than ever to create good looking and highly plausible multimedia content,but it will also be harder than ever to separate what is real from what is fake,misleading,or doctored.37JOURNALISM,MEDIA,AND TECHNOLOGY TRENDS AND PREDICTIONS 2023Other ways in which AI is being used in news organisationsIn our survey,news executives talk about different ways in which they are using AI technologies such as Machine Learning(ML)and Natural Language Processing(NLP)to make existing production processes more efficient:Summaries,text to speech,and image recognition leading to automated tagging and subtitles,are some of the examples mentioned by Mathieu Halkes,Head of Product at Schibsted.There are more and more use cases we see and apply every day,he says.AI transcription tools are now routine in newsrooms,with Danish digital-born outlet Zetland developing a speech to text transcription service aimed specifically at journalists and designed to work with smaller languages that big corporate products have failed to support.Good Tape is built on top of OpenAI technology and is currently free to use.Meanwhile,in Finland,the public broadcaster Yle has been able to start a service for Ukrainian refugees with news being automatically translated by machine before being checked by a native speaker.44 During the pandemic,Yle was also able to provide information in Somali,Arabic,Kurdish,and Persian.Others hope that AI can help deliver better personalisation and improve content recommendations to help increase engagement.The Sophi tool was developed by the Globe and Mail in Canada,where it has automated the vast majority of its web homepages,allowing editors time to be used more productively and driving a 17%increase in click-through rates.The product is now being offered to other publishers.AI-driven tools like Sophi are also used to manage social distribution tasks such as headline optimisation and the best time to post.When it comes to recommendations,around a quarter(23%)of our respondents say they are now using AI regularly,with 5%of early adopters making it a big part of what they do.Most publishers are experimenting with artificial intelligence for recommendation Q16.To what extent are you currently using AI(Artificial intelligence)to drive story selection/recommendations on your website and app?N=285.Sophi automates homepages,Yle in new languages,and Zetland offers transcription44 https:/yle.fi/aihe/a/20-10002751Q16.Do what extent are you currently using AI(Artifcial intelligence)to drive story selection/recommendations on your website andapp?N=285How are people using AI for recommendations59#%5%!#!$!%!&!(!)!*! !#!Dont knowNot using right nowJust a few experimentsUse it quite a bitBig part of what we do67%are using AI to some extent for recommendationsTHE REUTERS INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF JOURNALISM38The Newsroom is a start-up(still in beta)which uses AI to automatically identify and write summaries of the top news stories of the day,as well as summarising background context and providing links to related stories that are clustered by political perspectives.Although AI does the heavy lifting,all copy is checked and if necessary modified by a journalist.The Newsroom stories written by AI but checked by humans with automated context The debates over automation in journalism are not straightforward.Many welcome the capability to make non-journalistic tasks more efficient,but at the same time worry that cheaply produced synthetic media and semi-automated content could further commoditise news and undermine trust.One respondent from a leading quality news company argues that in these circumstances human curation becomes an even more important differentiator.We want to apply AI fundamentally to enhance manual curation not to replace it.All our work in this area is rooted in an understanding of the value manual curation brings to our readers and how it differentiates us from platforms with a host of problems around automation and curation.What else might happen this year in AI and journalism?Broadcast companies emBrace virtual presenters Deep Brain AI,a technology company based in South Korea,creates digital copies or digital twins of popular TV news anchors and these now make regular appearances on mainstream channels in Asia.MBN and Arirang in Korea and BTV and CCTV in China are using the technology to help save costs and enhance the presence of the most popular presenters.The company is now looking for customers in the United States where TV companies are under pressure to do more with less.One likely use case is for on-demand weather,where an AI model can be created of a popular forecaster including their favourite phrases and expressions,and then updated videos can be created for any location whenever the underlying data change.These models can also be combined with ChatGPT functionality to create a virtual chat bot answering questions about an election,for example,by a political correspondents digital twin.39JOURNALISM,MEDIA,AND TECHNOLOGY TRENDS AND PREDICTIONS 2023Virtual anchors coming to a screen near you?Pictures:Deep Brain AIdeBate over regulation of ai Hots up As these opportunities become more real,so do the ethical and regulatory dilemmas.Deep fakes have already been used to create non-consensual pornography,commit fraud,and fuel disinformation campaigns.Discussion about regulation is ongoing,and the EU is proposing an AI Act that would ban unacceptable uses of applications that violate peoples fundamental rights and safety even if in practice these will be hard to identify and enforce.In the meantime,journalism could take the lead in making its use of AI more transparent.We can expect more publishers to publish ethical guidelines covering the key areas which range from photo-improvement or manipulation to transparency and copyright.Open AI is working on digital watermarking responses and better labelling that could also help build trust in positive uses of these technologies.THE REUTERS INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF JOURNALISM409.ConclusionThe prevailing mood in the news industry is one of uncertainty and some concern about what the next year might have in store.The economic indicators do not look good,with rapidly rising costs and a squeeze on household spending expected to continue for some time.Issues such as news avoidance and news fatigue are widespread at the same time as some social platforms seem to be imploding or turning away from news,and emerging platforms seem largely uninterested in it making it even harder to attract new customers.Companies that have already completed their digital transition and have a robust subscription businesses or diversified revenue remain in the best position to ride out the storm,but those that are over-reliant on print or advertising have a tough few years ahead.In many parts of the world,this economic weakness will make some news organisations even more dependent on government advertising or well-connected proprietors,undermining their ability to hold the rich and powerful to account.Elsewhere we can expect extensive layoffs as well as a spate of mergers,acquisitions,and partnerships as industry tries to cut costs and bundle value in new ways.Industry consolidation sometimes creates more problems than it solves,but at its most effective,well find companies looking to run portfolios of distinctive and complementary brands with a greater focus on specific audience needs and segments.These shocks may also open up more radical thinking about the way news can be created and what a digital news organisation should look like.Lower cost models are emerging centred around distributed newsrooms and tools,helping to fill in gaps in local news provision for example.Some entrepreneurial journalists and news creators are pivoting to newsletters and podcasts,which enable deeper connection with specific audiences without the overheads that weigh down many traditional news organisations,but these are largely additional services that benefit those already interested in news.Younger audience behaviours such as social search and vertical video are also helping to upset the old order in Silicon Valley.Together with the unpredictability of Elon Musk,this has reminded us that it would be a mistake to take these platforms for granted.Tech companies remain focused on how they can respond to TikTok and the creativity it has unleashed along with the threat to their business models.Long-standing platform companies including Amazon,Apple,and Microsoft are all focused on growing their advertising business.Concerns about the news industry are likely to take a low priority.At the same time,we are on the cusp of a new wave of disruption as artificial intelligence technologies start to impact on the real world,driving greater efficiency and automation on the one hand,but also enabling content to be remixed in surprising and unpredictable ways.This will help media companies do more with less,as well as open up opportunities in the creation and distribution of smarter content.But it will also bring new dilemmas about how these powerful technologies can be used in an ethical and transparent way.41JOURNALISM,MEDIA,AND TECHNOLOGY TRENDS AND PREDICTIONS 2023Some media companies are still on a journey to become more digital,but that increasingly feels like yesterdays debate.The next few years will be defined more by how we can transform our digital content into something that feels more relevant and more useful to different groups.In this process new technologies can be our ally in tailoring content more precisely to different audience needs.But at the same time,journalism will need to emphasise its human qualities and its track record of delivering trusted content if it is to stand out from the flood of automated and synthetic media that threatens to overwhelm internet audiences.THE REUTERS INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF JOURNALISM42Survey Methodology 303 people completed a closed survey in November and December 2022.Participants,drawn from 53 countries and territories,were invited because they held senior positions(editorial,commercial,or product)in traditional or digital-born publishing companies and were responsible for aspects of digital or wider media strategy.The results reflect this strategic sample of select industry leaders,not a representative sample.Typical job titles included Editor-in-Chief/Executive Editor,CEO,Managing Director,Head of Digital,Director of Product,and Head of Innovation.Over half of participants were from organisations with a print background(53%),around a quarter(24%)represented digital-born media,a fifth(20%)came from commercial or public service broadcasters,and a further 3me from B2B companies or news agencies.These proportions are similar to previous surveys.Survey Country Mix(%)Survey Job Titles(No.)Base=303 Digital Leaders surveyed,53 countries and territories,24 November 16 December 2022The 53 countries and territories represented in the survey included Australia,New Zealand,Taiwan,Hong Kong,Singapore,Thailand,South Korea,Vietnam,Japan,Nigeria,South Africa,Zimbabwe,Ecuador,Costa Rica,Nicaragua,Venezuela,Uruguay Mexico,Brazil,Colombia,and Russia,but the majority came from the UK,US,or European countries such Germany,Spain,France,Austria,Finland,Norway,Denmark,and the Netherlands as well as Poland,Hungary,Slovakia,Latvia,and Ukraine amongst others.Participants filled out an online survey with specific questions around strategic and digital intent in 2023.Over 90%answered most questions although response rates vary.The majority contributed comments and ideas in open questions and some of these are quoted with permission in this document.1913864333333222225UKGermanyFranceSpainUSASwitzerlandAustraliaNetherlandsSwedenAustriaFinlandNorwayDenmarkSouth AfricaItalyOther344679101313252631354968OtherHead of Multimedia/Visuals/AudioHead of Business TransformationFounder/DirectorHead of Marketing/Business Development Strategy/PolicyHead Audience EngagementManaging EditorHead of Innovation/DevelopmentCTO/Director of Product/Product LeaderDeputy or Senior EditorHead of Digital/Chief Digital OfficerManaging Director/Publisher/CCOCEO/COOEditor-in-Chief/Executive EditorSurvey Job Titles(No.)Base=304 Digital Leaders surveyed,53 countries,29 November 16 December 202243JOURNALISM,MEDIA,AND TECHNOLOGY TRENDS AND PREDICTIONS 2023The author is grateful for the input from a number of publishers,academics,and industry experts when preparing this report via background conversions and emails.These included Rasmus Kleis Nielsen,Director of the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism;Damian Radcliffe,University of Oregon;Alexandra Borchardt,Consultant and Senior Research Associate at the Reuters Institute;David Caswell,Executive Product Manager at the BBC;Douglas McCabe,Enders Analysis;Troels Jrgensen,Digital Director at Politiken;David Tvrdon writer and podcaster from Slovakia;consultant Dmitry Shishkin;and social media expert Matt Navarra.THE REUTERS INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF JOURNALISM44RISJ PUBLICATIONSSELECTED BOOKSHearts and Minds:Harnessing Leadership,Culture,and Talent to Really Go DigitalLucy KuengWorlds of Journalism:Journalistic Cultures Around the GlobeThomas Hanitzsch,Folker Hanusch,Jyotika Ramaprasad,and Arnold S.de Beer(eds)(published with Columbia University Press)NGOs as Newsmakers:The Changing Landscape of International News Matthew Powers(published with Columbia University Press)Global Teamwork:The Rise of Collaboration in Investigative JournalismRichard Sambrook(ed)Journalism and the NSA Revelations:Privacy,Security and the PressRisto Kunelius,Heikki Heikkil,Adrienne Russell and Dmitry Yagodin(eds)(published with I.B.Tauris)Something Old,Something New:Digital Media and the Coverage of Climate ChangeJames Painter et al.Journalism in an Age of Terror John Lloyd(published with I.B.Tauris)The Right to Be Forgotten:Privacy and the Media in the Digital AgeGeorge Brock(published with I.B.Tauris)The Kidnapping of Journalists:Reporting from High-Risk Conflict Zones Robert G.Picard and Hannah Storm(published with I.B.Tauris)Innovators in Digital NewsLucy Kueng(published with I.B.Tauris)Local Journalism:The Decline of Newspapers and the Rise of Digital MediaRasmus Kleis Nielsen(ed)(published with I.B.Tauris)Journalism and PR:News Media and Public Relations in the Digital AgeJohn Lloyd and Laura Toogood(published with I.B.Tauris)Reporting the EU:News,Media and the European InstitutionsJohn Lloyd and Cristina Marconi(published with I.B.Tauris)SELECTED RISJ REPORTS AND FACTSHEETSHow Publishers are Learning to Create and Distribute News on TikTokNic Newman How We Follow Climate Change:Climate News Use and Attitudes in Eight CountriesWaqas Ejaz,Mitali Mukherjee,Richard Fletcher,Rasmus Kleis NielsenChanging Newsrooms 2022:Media Leaders Embrace Hybrid Work Despite ChallengesFederica CherubiniBorn in the Fire:What We Can Learn from How Digital Publishers in the Global South Approach PlatformsRasmus Kleis Nielsen and Federica CherubiniThe Trust Gap:How and Why News on Digital Platforms Is Viewed More Sceptically Versus News in GeneralCamila MontAlverne,Sumitra Badrinathan,Amy Ross Arguedas,Benjamin Toff,Richard Fletcher,and Rasmus Kleis NielsenReuters Institute Digital News Report 2022Nic Newman,Richard Fletcher,Craig T.Robertson,Kirsten Eddy,and Rasmus Kleis NielsenRace and Leadership in the News Media 2022:Evidence from Five MarketsKirsten Eddy,Meera Selva,and Rasmus Kleis Nielsen(Factsheet)45JOURNALISM,MEDIA,AND TECHNOLOGY TRENDS AND PREDICTIONS 2023Women and Leadership in the News Media 2022:Evidence from Twelve MarketsKirsten Eddy,Meera Selva,and Rasmus Kleis Nielsen(Factsheet)Snap Judgements:How Audiences Who Lack Trust in News Navigate Information on Digital PlatformsAmy Ross Arguedas,Sumitra Badrinathan,Camila MontAlverne,Benjamin Toff,Richard Fletcher,and Rasmus Kleis NielsenEcho Chambers,Filter Bubbles,and Polarisation:A Literature ReviewAmy Ross Arguedas,Craig T.Robertson,Richard Fletcher,and Rasmus Kleis NielsenJournalism,Media,and Technology Trends and Predictions 2022Nic NewmanDepth and Breadth:How News Organisations Navigate Trade-Offs Around Building Trust in News Benjamin Toff,Sumitra Badrinathan,Camila MontAlverne,Amy Ross Arguedas,Richard Fletcher,and Rasmus Kleis NielsenOvercoming Indifference:What Attitudes Towards News Across the Global North and South Tell Us About Building TrustBenjamin Toff,Sumitra Badrinathan,Camila MontAlverne,Amy Ross Arguedas,Richard Fletcher,and Rasmus Kleis NielsenAn Ongoing Infodemic:How People in Eight Countries Access and Rate News and Information About Coronavirus a Year into the PandemicRasmus Kleis Nielsen,Anne Schulz,and Richard FletcherListening to What Trust in News Means to Users:Qualitative Evidence from Four CountriesBenjamin Toff,Sumitra Badrinathan,Camila MontAlverne,Amy Ross Arguedas,Richard Fletcher,and Rasmus Kleis NielsenWomen and News:An Overview of Audience Behaviour in 11 CountriesMeera Selva and Simge AndWhat We Think We Know and What We Want to Know:Perspectives on Trust in News in a Changing WorldBenjamin Toff,Sumitra Badrinathan,Camila MontAlverne,Amy Ross Arguedas,Richard Fletcher,and Rasmus Kleis NielsenDaily News Podcasts:Building New Habits in the Shadow of CoronavirusNic Newman and Nathan GalloFew Winners,Many Losers:The COVID-19 Pandemics Dramatic and Unequal Impact on Independent News MediaRasmus Kleis Nielsen,Federica Cherubini,and Simge AndChanging Newsrooms 2020:Addressing Diversity and Nurturing Talent at a Time of Unprecedented ChangeFederica Cherubini,Nic Newman,and Rasmus Kleis NielsenCommunications in the Coronavirus Crisis:Lessons for the Second Wave Rasmus Kleis Nielsen,Richard Fletcher,Antonis Kalogeropoulos,and Felix M.SimonInformation Inequality in the UK Coronavirus Communications CrisisRichard Fletcher,Antonis Kalogeropoulos,Felix M.Simon,and Rasmus Kleis NielsenPublish Less,but Publish Better:Pivoting to Paid in Local NewsJoy JenkinsVolume and Patterns of Toxicity in Social Media Conversations during the COVID-19 PandemicSlvia Maj-Vzquez,Rasmus Kleis Nielsen,Joan Verd,Nandan Rao,Manlio de Domenico,and Omiros Papaspiliopoulos(Factsheet)Are News Outlets Viewed in the Same Way by Experts and the Public?A Comparison across 23 European CountriesAnne Schulz,Richard Fletcher,and Marina Popescu(Factsheet)Types,Sources,and Claims of COVID-19 MisinformationJ.Scott Brennen,Felix M.Simon,Philip N.Howard,and Rasmus Kleis Nielsen(Factsheet)Industry,Expert,or Industry Experts?Academic Sourcing in News Coverage of AIJ.Scott Brennen,Anne Schulz,Philip N.Howard,and Rasmus Kleis Nielsen(Factsheet)Old,Educated,and Politically Diverse:The Audience of Public Service NewsAnne Schulz,David A.L.Levy,and Rasmus Kleis Nielsen www.reutersinstitute.politics.ac.ukwww.digitalnewsreport.orgWith support 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3人看过 2023-02-10 48 侧边 5星

英敏特：消费者如何看待食品和饮料的创新？ - Focus on delicious food and drink（英文版）（22页）.pdf

消费者如何看待新的食品/饮料创新？：Mintel 购物智能研究产品最近在 Mintel 的 Big Talk Australia 上亮相：食品/饮料 Indulgence UnwrappingHammonds Chicken&Waffles Milk Chocolate with Maple Syrup 消费者对这款产品有何看法？ 3.49 美元美国消费者会尝试这种产品（与基准巧克力糖果类别相比，为 50%）“巧克力鸡肉和华夫饼的味道听起来很恶心。想到鸡肉上的枫糖浆让我感到畏缩。” IntelligenceMicheles Granola Maple Pecan、Oat & Nut Butter 消费者对这款产品有何看法？售价 11.99 美元，美国消费者将此产品视为美味佳肴（与 50% 坚果片的基准相比）“看起来不错，是我想尝试的东西，但没有说是有机的。在我购买后会为产品增加更多价值观点。”男性，西方人，18-34 岁 国家价格 58% 来源：Mintel Purchase Intelligence Toodaloo Smoke Show Adaptogene Trail Mix以 45% 的国家价格 36u% 为零食组合类别的基准来源：Mintel Purchase IntelligenceFills Walking Tamales Mexican Chocolate Almond & Corn Bar 46%) 国家成本 65% 资料来源：Mintel Purchase Intelligence “首先，我喜欢玉米粉蒸肉。伙计。它会吸引你并吸引你的眼球。”男性，南方，35-54 岁 Olipop 草莓香草起泡滋补品 消费者怎么看这款产品？美国消费者 $2.70 会尝试这款产品（与软饮料类别基准 41% 相比）EARTH PRICE43% 来源：Mintel Purchase Intelligence“包含许多健康和天然的成分。它热量低，不含人造甜味剂，看起来很美味。” Female, South, 55, Hope and Sesame Unsweetened Vanilla Sesame Milk 消费者如何看待这款产品？3.99 美元的美国消费者会购买这款产品（与植物基饮料类别基准相比30 %) 国内价格 44% 资料来源：英敏特采购情报 “我想看看它的味道如何。我总是用杏仁奶，所以尝试一下会很棒。它会与冷麦片搭配。” 女性，南方，55 岁 Lotus Biscoff 比利时牛奶巧克力配 Biscoff 曲奇黄油) COUNTRY PRICE54% 资料来源：Mintel Purchase Intelligence “我喜欢 Biscoff 饼干，如果我的店里有的话，我想试试用巧克力做的。” 女性，南方，35-54 岁 Acid League Blueberry Pomegranate Lively Balsamic 消费者对这款产品有何看法? 7.99 美元的美国消费者发现这款产品令人兴奋（与 43% 的调味品和醋类别基准相比） LANDPRICE52% 来源：Mintel Purchase Intelligence “这是一种有趣的成分组合，肯定会吸引人。瓶子和顶部的艺术品让它非常独家且昂贵。瓶上印的“Living Vinegar with Mom”是一个需要解释的挠头。“Male, South, 55 Reeses Popcorn Topped” 消费者对这款产品有什么看法？将该产品评为“我喜欢”（相对于 56% 的爆米花类别基准） EARTH PICE68% 资料来源：Mintel Purchase Intelligence “Reese 的花生酱爆米花是我有味蕾的原因。我通常不吃爆米花，但我会每天一整天都吃这个。”女性，南方，35-54 岁。 Arnotts Tim Tam Butterscotch&Cream Flavor Biscuits 消费者如何看待这款产品？澳大利亚 AUD 4.00 澳大利亚消费者会购买该产品（相比类别基准甜饼干/饼干的 36%EARTH PRICE54%来源：Mintel Purchase Intelligence “我是 Tim Tams 的忠实粉丝，虽然我不经常吃它们每次我们有，感觉就像一个特殊的场合，所以特殊的口味/变化会让它变得更加特别。” 男性，新南威尔士州，16-34 岁 Cadbury Caramilk Marvelous Creations Jelly Popping Candy 焦糖白巧克力豆 消费者对澳大利亚的看法 5.50 澳元，澳大利亚消费者会尝试这种产品（与 48% 的基准巧克力棒类别相比） COUNTRY PRICE64% 资料来源：Mintel Buying Intelligence this. "Male, QLD, 16-34Melbourne Cocoa. Dark Malt Honeycomb Chocolate Bar 消费者对这款产品的看法澳大利亚 AUD 11.00 澳大利亚消费者会购买这款产品（与 35% 的基准巧克力棒类别相比） COUNTRY PRICE 24% 来源： Mintel Purchase Intelligence “看起来真不错！但它很贵，我觉得不值这个价。”女性，维多利亚州，16-34 岁 Coles Joyful 低糖草莓芝士蛋糕牛奶什锦早餐棒 消费者对这款产品有何看法？澳大利亚 5.50 澳元 澳大利亚消费者会购买该产品（与 30% 的零食/麦片/能量棒基准相比） 国家/地区价格 36% 来源：Mintel 采购详情在包装上，它看起来真的很好吃，而且物有所值。”女性，新南威尔士州，16-34 岁冷冻花生酱果冻球素食能量球消费者如何看待该产品？澳大利亚 8.50 AUDLAND PRICE 来源：Mintel Purchase Intelligence “看起来很不错，但果冻部分只是果酱吗？美国人称之为果酱果冻。我买它只是为了尝试。男性，新南威尔士州，55 “我不是果冻粉丝，我认为这种基本食品的价格很高。它绝对不同，但成分很简单。” 女性，昆士兰州，16-34 岁 Health Guru Bangkok Sriracha 花椰菜泡芙 消费者对这款产品有何看法？澳大利亚 2.99 澳元。价格来源：Mintel Purchase Intelligence “与众不同，值得一试。似乎是一种更健康的零食选择。我对花椰菜的味道很感兴趣。 "Man, QLD.55 澳大利亚消费者喜欢这款产品（与素食零食类别基准 38% 相比）53%The No Nasties Project 50%Low Sugar Cinnamon Donuts 消费者对这款产品有何看法？澳大利亚 5.40 AUDLAND PRICE 来源：英敏特Purchase Intelligence “这样一来，它的含糖量就少了 50%，但我更喜欢早餐吃无糖餐。” )65%Monday Distillery Paloma 消费者对这款产品有何看法？4 件装)信息价格来源：Mintel Purchase Intelligence “标签看起来令人兴奋，我喜欢它不含酒精，但看起来仍然像酒精饮料。很多软饮料都非常甜，但我只会在特殊场合喝，因为价格很高 平静清澈的桃子 消费者对这款产品有何看法？澳大利亚 AUD25.00（4 包） 国家价格 来源：Mintel Purchase Intelligence “我意识到这是一种促进健康的饮料。Ashwaghanda 是一种很好的减压和镇静饮料。但对于所列价格，您可以购买许多其他产品，例如一瓶天然草药，以获得更好的效果。会有这种饮料中的糖分，因此对健康的好处不会那么大。”女性，维多利亚州，55 名澳大利亚消费者认为该产品优质（与参考冰淇淋类别 38% 相比） 44% Noshu 牛奶巧克力威化酥 您如何看待该产品的消费者？ Noshu品牌的大力支持者。含糖量少的巧克力会让你感觉不那么内疚。他们的品牌也总是生产出好产品。此外，绿蛙在包装上经过认证，这让我对购买该品牌的产品感觉好多了。” 16-34 岁的澳大利亚新南威尔士州女性消费者会购买该产品（与非独立包装的巧克力棒类别基准相比34).%).38%We rub you Gochujang Korean Hot Sauce 消费者对这款产品有何看法？Australia14.00 AUDLAND PRICE 来源：Mintel 购买详情 “我喜欢辣酱，我真的很喜欢它的包装和配方。”男性，维多利亚州，16-34 岁的澳大利亚消费者喜欢该产品（与 35% 的餐桌酱类基准相比）42 来自 MintelMintel 是了解消费者需求及其原因的专家。作为世界领先的市场情报机构，我们对消费者、市场的分析、产品创新和竞争格局 对全球和当地经济的独特视角 自 1972 年以来，我们的预测分析和专家建议使我们的客户能够更好地开展业务并更快地做出决策。我们的目标是帮助企业和人们成长。要了解我们是如何做到的，请访问 。

21人看过 2023-02-10 22边 5星

美国证券交易所 Huber (HBER) IPO 招股说明书（95 页）.pdf

2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1958839/000195883922000003/f1.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1958839/000195883922000003/f1.htm1/95F-1 1 f1.htm As filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on December 21,2022.UNITED STATESSECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSIONWashington,D.C.20549 FORM F-1REGISTRATION STATEMENTUNDERTHE SECURITIES ACT OF 1933 HUBEIER GROUP LTD.(Exact name of Registrant as specified in its charter)Not Applicable(Translation of Registrants name into English)United Kingdom 8200 Not Applicable(State or other jurisdiction of(Primary Standard Industrial(I.R.S.Employerincorporation or organization)Classification Code Number)Identification Number)Shop 154,Building 17,Zone C,Wanda PlazaNo.208 Dongzong RoadZhushan Community,Dongcheng Street,Dongguan,GuangdongPeoples Republic of China 523000 44 07760185350(Address,including zip code,and telephone number,including area code,of Registrants principal executive offices)4305 SNYDER AVE BROOKLYNNewYorkAmerican Tuoyuan International Securities Group Inc.(Name,address of agent for service)F15,Fudan Science Park Building,No.11 Guotai RoadYangpu District,ShanghaiShanghai Jinzhun Investment Management Co.,Ltd(Name,address of agent for service)Copies to:Approximate date of commencement of proposed sale to the public:As soon as practicable after the effective date of this Registration Statement.If any of the securities being registered on this Form are to be offered on a delayed or continuous basis pursuant to Rule 415 under the SecuritiesAct of 1933,check the following box.If this Form is filed to register additional securities for an offering pursuant to Rule 462(b)under the Securities Act,please check the followingbox and list the Securities Act registration statement number of the earlier effective registration statement for the same offering.If this Form is a post-effective amendment filed pursuant to Rule 462(c)under the Securities Act,check the following box and list the SecuritiesAct registration statement number of the earlier effective registration statement for the same offering.If this Form is a post-effective amendment filed pursuant to Rule 462(d)under the Securities Act,check the following box and list the SecuritiesAct registration statement number of the earlier effective registration statement for the same offering.Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933.Emerginggrowth company If an emerging growth company that prepares its financial statements in accordance with U.S.GAAP,indicate by check mark if the registrant haselected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant toSection 7(a)(2)(B)of the Securities Act.The Registrant hereby amends this registration statement on such date or dates as may be necessary to delay its effective date until the Registrantshall file a further amendment which specifically states that this registration statement shall thereafter become effective in accordance withSection 8(a)of the Securities Act,as amended,or until the registration statement shall become effective on such date as the Securities andExchange Commission,acting pursuant to said Section 8(a)may determine.1 2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1958839/000195883922000003/f1.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1958839/000195883922000003/f1.htm2/95 PRELIMINARY PROSPECTUSORDINARY SHARESWe are offering ordinary shares.This is the initial public offering of ordinary shares of.The offering price of our ordinaryshares in this offering is expected to be$6.00 per share.Prior to this offering,there has been no public market for our ordinary shares.We have applied to list our ordinary shares on the Nasdaq Capital Market under the symbol“HBER”.There is no assurance that such applicationwill be approved,and if our application is not approved,this offering may not be completed.Investing in our ordinary shares involves a high degree of risk.Before buying any shares,you should carefully read the discussion ofmaterial risks of investing in our ordinary shares in“Risk Factors”.We are an“emerging growth company”as defined under the federal securities laws and,as such,will be subject to reduced public companyreporting requirements.See“Prospectus SummaryImplications of Being an Emerging Growth Company”for additional information.Neither the Securities and Exchange Commission nor any other regulatory body has approved or disapproved of these securities orpassed upon the accuracy or adequacy of this prospectus.Any representation to the contrary is a criminal offense.We are not a Chinese operating company,but rather a holding company incorporated in the United Kingdom.As a holding company with nomaterial operations of our own,we conduct a substantial majority of our operations through our operating entities established in the PeoplesRepublic of China(or the“PRC”).The Ordinary Shares offered in this prospectus are shares of the United Kingdom holding company.Holders ofour Class A Ordinary Shares do not directly own any equity interests in our Chinese operating subsidiaries,but will instead own shares of aUnited Kingdom holding company.The Chinese regulatory authorities could disallow our corporate structure,which would likely result in amaterial change in our operations and/or a material change in the value of our Ordinary Shares,including that it could cause the value of ourOrdinary Shares to significantly decline or become worthless.Unless otherwise stated,as used in this prospectus and in the context of describingour operations and consolidated financial information,“we,”“us,”“Company,”or“our,”refers to HUBEIER GROUP LTD.,a United Kingdomholding company.For a description of our corporate structure,see“Corporate History and Structure.”See also“Risk Factors Risks Relating toOur Corporate Structure.”2 2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1958839/000195883922000003/f1.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1958839/000195883922000003/f1.htm3/95 We face various legal and operational risks and uncertainties relating to our operations in China.These risks,together with uncertainties inChinas legal system and the interpretation and enforcement of Chinese laws,regulations,and policies,could hinder our ability to offer orcontinue to offer our securities,result in a material adverse effect on our business operations,and damage our reputation,which could cause ourshares to significantly decline in value or become worthless.The Chinese government may intervene or influence the operations of our PRCsubsidiaries at any time and may exert more control over offerings conducted overseas and/or foreign investment in China-based issuers,whichcould result in a material change in the operations of our PRC subsidiaries and/or the value of our common stock.Any actions by the Chinesegovernment to exert more oversight and control over offerings that are conducted overseas and/or foreign investment in China-based issuerscould significantly limit or completely hinder our ability to offer or continue to offer securities to investors and cause the value of such securitiesto significantly decline or be worthless.Recently,the PRC government adopted a series of laws,regulatory measures and issued statements toregulate business operations in China,including cracking down on illegal activities in the securities market,adopting new measures to extend thescope of cybersecurity reviews,and expanding the efforts in anti-monopoly enforcement.The Cyberspace Administration of China(“CAC”)hasopened cybersecurity probes into several U.S.-listed technology companies focusing on anti-monopoly regulation,and how companies collect,store,process and transfer data,among other things.If we are subject to such a probe or are required to comply with the stringent requirements ofthe new regulations,our ability to conduct our business or list on a U.S.stock exchange may be restricted.As of the date of this prospectus,weand our subsidiaries have not been involved in any investigations on cybersecurity review initiated by any Chinese regulatory authority,nor hasany of them received any inquiry,notice or sanction.There are currently no relevant laws or regulations in China that prohibit companies whosesubsidiaries or entity interests are within China from listing on overseas stock exchanges.However,since these statements and regulatory actionsare newly published,official guidance and related implementation rules have not been issued.It is highly uncertain what the potential impactsuch modified or new policies and regulations will have on our daily business operation,the ability to accept foreign investments and our abilityto continue trading on a U.S.securities marketplace or stock exchange.PER SHARE TOTAL Initial public offering price$Underwriting discounts and commissions(1)$Proceeds,before expenses,to us$(1)Does not include accountable and non-accountable expense allowance payable to underwriters.Please see the section of this prospectusentitled“Underwriting”for additional information regarding underwriter compensation.We expect our total cash expenses for this offering(including cash expenses payable to our underwriters for their out-of-pocket expenses)to beapproximately$,exclusive of the above commissions.In addition,we will pay additional items of value in connection with this offering thatare viewed by the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority,or FINRA,as underwriting compensation.These payments will further reduceproceeds available to us before expenses.See“Underwriting.”Neither we nor any of the underwriters have authorized anyone to provide any information or to make any representations other than thosecontained in this prospectus or in any free writing prospectuses we have prepared.Neither we nor any of the underwriters take responsibility for,and can provide no assurance as to the reliability of,any other information that others may give you.This prospectus is an offer to sell only theshares offered hereby,but only under circumstances and in jurisdictions where it is lawful to do so.The information contained in this prospectusis current only as of its date,regardless of the time of delivery of this prospectus or of any sale of our common stock.For investors outside the United States:Neither we nor any of the underwriters have done anything that would permit this offering or possessionor distribution of this prospectus in any jurisdiction where action for that purpose is required,other than in the United States.Persons outside theUnited States who come into possession of this prospectus must inform themselves about,and observe any restrictions relating to,the offering ofthe shares of our common stock and the distribution of this prospectus outside the United States.Neither the Securities and Exchange Commission nor any state securities commission nor any other regulatory body has approved ordisapproved of these securities or determined if this prospectus is truthful or complete.Any representation to the contrary is a criminal offense.3 2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1958839/000195883922000003/f1.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1958839/000195883922000003/f1.htm4/95 TABLE OF CONTENTS PagePROSPECTUS SUMMARY5OFFERINGS10RISK FACTORS11SPECIAL NOTE REGARDING FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS39USE OF PROCEEDS41DIVIDEND POLICY42CAPITALIZATION43DILUTION44CORPORATE HISTORY AND STRUCTURE45MANAGEMENTS DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS47BUSINESS51REGULATIONS61MANAGEMENT72PRINCIPAL SHAREHOLDERS78RELATED PARTY TRANSACTIONS DESCRIPTION OF SHARE CAPITAL79SHARES ELIGIBLE FOR FUTURE SALE84TAXATION86UNDERWRITING88LEGAL MATTERS EXPERTS WHERE YOU CAN FIND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION90INDEX TO CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS91INFORMATION NOT REQUIRED IN A PROSPECTUS95 4 2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1958839/000195883922000003/f1.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1958839/000195883922000003/f1.htm5/95 PROSPECTUS SUMMARY The following summary is qualified in its entirety by,and should be read in conjunction with,the more detailed information and financialstatements appearing elsewhere in this prospectus.In addition to this summary,we urge you to read the entire prospectus carefully,especially therisks of investing in our Ordinary Shares discussed under“Risk Factors”before deciding whether to buy our Ordinary Shares.Our Mission Our mission is to accompany you to change,aiming to have positive impact on women from outside to inside,not only in the beautiful anddecent character,but also in the elegant and gentle appearance.We aspire to make every woman rich in spirit,elegant in manner and grateful inlove.Overview of Our Company Hbeie Body Etiquette Girls School(“Hbeie School”,“Hbeie”,“we”,“us”or“our”)is a project launched by Youlan Culture that focuses onwomens growth education.We focus on the development of bodily etiquette girls school and strive to build an all-ecological femaleconsumption platform and female entrepreneurship platform.Our business foundation is based on a strong partnership with franchisees,providing services such as dance shaping,body etiquette,and emotional healing.With innovative curriculum system,strong resource channelsand perfect service quality,we are able to take a leading position in the industry.As a leading enterprise in the professional accompanying serviceindustry,we have now established more than 900 branch schools across the country,ranking first in the physical etiquette industry.History and Development On April 28,2018,“Youlan Culture”was established,and in September,the first“Hbeie”franchise store opened in Dongguan,Guangdong,China.Since establishment,our brand has developed rapidly.In April 2021,the number of memberships exceeded 300,000 and the number ofqualified teachers has exceeded 3,000.In April 2022,there were more than 700 branch schools throughout the country,and“Youshou”,a smartstore system platform was launched to create an open quality teaching service ecosystem.Our expectations to the development of“Hbeie”in2023 are positive and we expect the number of memberships will exceed 2 million.The Industry Body etiquette is a new industry in recent years with rapid development.Since the 21st century,the body etiquette training market has been in arapid growth trend.The threshold for learning body etiquette is not high,and the effect is quick,and it has been deeply loved by women.Moreand more women are exposed to the physical etiquette industry,love this industry,and are determined to develop a career in this field.It ispredicted that in the next few years,more women will participate in the competition in this industry by understanding and learning body etiquette,joining,or creating their own brands to set up campuses.Our Solution As a new industry,body etiquette has not formed industry standards,industry brands are numerous and scattered,there is no oligarch company.Although“Hbeie”has the largest size in the industry,we also need to further innovate and bring in the right ecological projects to enhance ourcore competitiveness.We will continue to improve the quality,do a good job in market analysis and target market locking,seriously do a goodjob in information release,sales network construction and other work.We will also pay attention to the latest trends in the industry,to ensure thatour courses,services,and products are at the leading level in terms of effect,quality,and design.5 2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1958839/000195883922000003/f1.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1958839/000195883922000003/f1.htm6/95 Our Services and Products We established H Course system,focusing on women body etiquette,dance shaping,image building,emotional healing and other services.At thesame time,we are committed to building a diversified and ecological female consumption platform,providing diversified services such asclothing,jewelry,beauty makeup and skin care,medical beauty and health care,and bestie activities.Our Core Technology Our core technology is the unique bodily etiquette service system-H curriculum system,and a diversified and all-ecological female consumptionplatform.Our Competitive Strengths Compared with our competitors,our advantages are innovative curriculum system,unique coaching mode,strong resource channels,flexibleoperation and management.Our Challenges We may face challenges of market risks,capital risks,operational management risks and quality control risks in the course of our business,butwe have established corresponding solutions.Our market opportunity Because todays shape etiquette industry has the advantages of large market demand and large development potential of the overall scale,it is agood period for our enterprise to rapidly expand operation with the advantages of innovation.Our headquarters is responsible for the overalloutput of stores,through the development of franchise store chain system and national regional agents to expand the scale of the enterprise.What we do Hbeie is committed to being the most emotional enterprise,not a traditional training institution,but a more emotional accompanying traininginstitution.Our Strategy We are in the implementation period of the growth strategy.Through the growth strategy,we will continue to expand the scale of the enterpriseand make it develop into a large enterprise with strong strength.And our strategy is mainly focused on internal development,that is,using ourown internal resources for development.Risk Factors Summary Potential risks include market risk,capital risk,operational management risk and quality control risk.6 2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1958839/000195883922000003/f1.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1958839/000195883922000003/f1.htm7/95 Trademarks Company LOGO:Implications of Our Being an“Emerging Growth Company”On September 9,2022,the SEC adopted inflation adjustments mandated by the Jumpstart Our Business Startups Act of 2012(the“JOBS Act”).As a result,an“emerging growth company”will lose its emerging growth company status on the last day of the fiscal year in which it has$1.235billion or more in total.As a company with less than$1.235 billion in revenue during our last fiscal year,we qualify as an“emerging growthcompany”as defined in the JOBS Act.“An“emerging growth company”may take advantage of reduced reporting requirements that areotherwise applicable to larger public companies.In particular,as an emerging growth company,we:may present only two years of audited financial statements and only two years of related Managements Discussion and Analysis ofFinancial Condition and Results of Operations;are not required to provide a detailed narrative disclosure discussing our compensation principles,objectives and elements and analyzinghow those elements fit with our principles and objectives,which is commonly referred to as“compensation discussion and analysis”;are not required to obtain an attestation and report from our auditors on our managements assessment of our internal control over financialreporting pursuant to the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002;are not required to obtain a non-binding advisory vote from our shareholders on executive compensation or golden parachute arrangements(commonly referred to as the“say-on-pay,”“say-on frequency”and“say-on-golden-parachute”votes);are exempt from certain executive compensation disclosure provisions requiring a pay-for-performance graph and CEO pay ratio disclosure;are eligible to claim longer phase-in periods for the adoption of new or revised financial accounting standards under 107 of the JOBS Act;and will not be required to conduct an evaluation of our internal control over financial reporting until our second annual report on Form 20-Ffollowing the effectiveness of our initial public offering.We intend to take advantage of all of these reduced reporting requirements and exemptions,including the longer phase-in periods for the adoptionof new or revised financial accounting standards under 107 of the JOBS Act.Our election to use the phase-in periods may make it difficult tocompare our financial statements to those of non-emerging growth companies and other emerging growth companies that have opted out of thephase-in periods under 107 of the JOBS Act.7 2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1958839/000195883922000003/f1.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1958839/000195883922000003/f1.htm8/95 Under the JOBS Act,we may take advantage of the above-described reduced reporting requirements and exemptions until we no longer meet thedefinition of an emerging growth company.The JOBS Act provides that we would cease to be an“emerging growth company”at the end of thefiscal year in which the fifth anniversary of our initial sale of common equity pursuant to a registration statement declared effective under theSecurities Act of 1933,as amended(the“Securities Act”)occurred,if we have more than$1.235 billion in annual revenue,have more than$700million in market value of our Class A Ordinary Share held by non-affiliates,or issue more than$1 billion in principal amount of non-convertibledebt over a three-year period.Foreign Private Issuer Status We are a foreign private issuer within the meaning of the rules under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934,as amended(the“Exchange Act”).Assuch,we are exempt from certain provisions applicable to United States domestic public companies.For example:we are not required to provide as many Exchange Act reports,or as frequently,as a domestic public company;for interim reporting,we are permitted to comply solely with our home country requirements,which are less rigorous than the rules that applyto domestic public companies;we are not required to provide the same level of disclosure on certain issues,such as executive compensation;we are exempt from provisions of Regulation FD aimed at preventing issuers from making selective disclosures of material information;we are not required to comply with the sections of the Exchange Act regulating the solicitation of proxies,consents,or authorizations inrespect of a security registered under the Exchange Act;and we are not required to comply with Section 16 of the Exchange Act requiring insiders to file public reports of their share ownership andtrading activities and establishing insider liability for profits realized from any“short-swing”trading transaction.Implications of Being a Controlled Company Controlled companies are exempt from the majority of independent director requirements.Controlled companies are subject to an exemptionfrom Nasdaq standards requiring that the board of a listed company consist of a majority of independent directors within one year of the listingdate.Public Companies that qualify as a“Controlled Company”with securities listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market(Nasdaq),must comply with theexchanges continued listing standards to maintain their listings.Nasdaq has adopted qualitative listing standards.Companies that do not complywith these corporate governance requirements may lose their listing status.Under the Nasdaq rules,a“controlled company”is a company withmore than 50%of its voting power held by a single person,entity or group.Under Nasdaq rules,a controlled company is exempt from certaincorporate governance requirements including:the requirement that a majority of the board of directors consist of independent directors;the requirement that a listed company have a nominating and governance committee that is composed entirely of independent directors witha written charter addressing the committees purpose and responsibilities;the requirement that a listed company have a compensation committee that is composed entirely of independent directors with a writtencharter addressing the committees purpose and responsibilities;and the requirement for an annual performance evaluation of the nominating and governance committee and compensation committee.8 2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1958839/000195883922000003/f1.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1958839/000195883922000003/f1.htm9/95 Controlled companies must still comply with the exchanges other corporate governance standards.These include having an audit committee andthe special meetings of independent or non-management directors.Our Pre-IPOPrior to the IPO,we total share capital was about 1,000,000,000 ordinary shares.This time,about 200,000,000 ordinary shares were added,whichis we expect that the initial public offering price will be no less than US$6.00 per share.Corporate Information Our principal executive office is located at SUITE 819 162 WARWICK WAY,LONDON,ENGLAND.9 2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1958839/000195883922000003/f1.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1958839/000195883922000003/f1.htm10/95 OFFERINGS Below is a summary of the terms of the offering:IssuerHubeier Group Ltd.Securities Being Offered Ordinary Shares,par value US$0.0001 per share Offering PriceWe expect that the initial public offering price will be US$6.00 per Ordinary Share.Ordinary Shares OutstandingImmediately Before This Offering Ordinary Shares Ordinary Shares OutstandingImmediately After This Offering Ordinary Shares(or Ordinary Shares if the underwriters exercise their option topurchase additional Ordinary Shares in full).Voting RightsEach Ordinary Share is entitled to one vote.Use of Proceeds Proposed Nasdaq Trading Symbol andListingWe plan to apply to list our Ordinary Shares on the Nasdaq Capital Market under the symbol“HBER”This offering is contingent upon us listing our Ordinary Shares on Nasdaq CapitalMarket or another national exchange.No assurance can be given that such listing will beapproved or that a liquid trading market will develop for our Ordinary Shares.Lock-upOur directors,executive officers,and shareholder who own 5%or more of the outstandingOrdinary Shares intended agreed with the underwriters not to offer for sale,issue,sell,contractto sell,pledge or otherwise dispose of any of our Ordinary Shares or securities convertible intoOrdinary Shares for a period of 6 months commencing on the date of this prospectus.TheCompany is also prohibited from conducting offerings during this period and from re-pricingor changing the terms of existing options and warrants.See“Underwriting”for additionalinformation.Transfer Agent Risk factorsSee“Risk Factors”for a discussion of risks you should carefully consider before investing inour Ordinary Shares.10 2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1958839/000195883922000003/f1.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1958839/000195883922000003/f1.htm11/95 RISK FACTORS An investment in our Ordinary Shares involves a high degree of risk.Before deciding whether to invest in our Ordinary Shares,you shouldconsider carefully the risks described below,together with all of the other information set forth in this prospectus,including the section titled“Managements Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations”and our consolidated financial statements and relatednotes.If any of these risks actually occurs,our business,financial condition,results of operations or cash flow could be materially and adverselyaffected,which could cause the trading price of our Ordinary Shares to decline,resulting in a loss of all or part of your investment.The risksdescribed below and in the documents referenced above are not the only ones that we face.Additional risks not presently known to us or that wecurrently deem immaterial may also affect our business.You should only consider investing in our Ordinary Shares if you can bear the risk ofloss of your entire investment.Risks Related to Our Business We have grown rapidly in recent years and have limited experience operating at our current scale of operations.If we are unable tomanage our growth effectively,our brand,company culture and financial results may suffer.We have grown rapidly in the past year and our recent growth rates and financial results should not be considered indicators of our futureperformance.In order to effectively manage and leverage our growth,we must continue to expand our sales and marketing,focus on innovativeproduct and website development,and upgrade our management information systems.Our continued growth has in the past and may in the futurestrain our existing resources and we may experience ongoing operational difficulties in managing our operations in numerous jurisdictions,including difficulties in recruiting,training and managing a dispersed and growing employee base.Failure to expand and maintain our companyculture through growth may harm our future success,including our ability to retain and recruit personnel and to effectively focus on and pursueour corporate goals.The education service industry is evolving rapidly and may not evolve as we expect.Even if our net sales continue to grow,our net sales growthrate may decline in the future due to a variety of factors,including macroeconomic factors,changes in supply and supply chain,changes inconsumer preferences,increased competition and the maturation of our business.Accordingly,you should not rely on our net sales growth ratesfor any prior period as an indicator of our future performance.Our overall growth in net sales will depend on many factors,including our abilityto:1)price our products and services effectively so that we can attract new customers and expand our relationships with existing customers.2)accurately forecast our net sales and plan our operating expenses.3)compete successfully with other companies that are or may be entering our competitive market in the future and respond to developments inthose competitors,such as pricing changes and the introduction of new products and services.4)Complying with existing and new laws and regulations that apply to our business.5)Successfully expanding into existing markets and entering new markets,including new geographic areas and categories.6)The successful introduction of new products and enhancements to our products and services and their features,including in response to newtrends or competitive dynamics or customer needs or preferences.7)Successfully identifying and acquiring or investing in businesses,products or technologies that we believe will complement or expand ourbusiness.8)Avoiding disruptions or interruptions in the distribution of our products and services.9)Providing quality support to our customers that meets their needs.10)Hiring,integrating and retaining talented sales,customer service and other personnel.11)Effectively managing the growth of our business,personnel and operations,including the opening of new showrooms.12)Effectively managing the costs associated with our business and operations.13)Maintaining and enhancing our reputation and brand value.11 2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1958839/000195883922000003/f1.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1958839/000195883922000003/f1.htm12/95 Because of our limited history of operating our business at our current scale,it is difficult to assess our current operations and future prospects,including our ability to plan for and model future growth.Our limited operating experience at this scale,combined with the rapidly evolvingnature of the markets in which we sell our products and services,the significant uncertainty about how these markets will develop and othereconomic factors beyond our control,reduces our ability to accurately forecast quarterly or annual revenues.Failure to effectively manage ourfuture growth could adversely affect our business,financial condition and results of operations.We have limited sources of working capital and will need substantial additional financing.The working capital required to implement our business strategy and R&D efforts will most likely be provided by funds obtained throughofferings of our equity,debt,debt-linked securities,and/or equity-linked securities,and revenues generated by us.No assurance can be given thatwe will have revenues sufficient to sustain our operations or that we would be able to obtain equity/debt financing in the current economicenvironment.If we do not have sufficient working capital and are unable to generate sufficient revenues or raise additional funds,we may delaythe completion of or significantly reduce the scope of our current business plan;delay some of our development and clinical or marketing efforts;postpone the hiring of new personnel;or,under certain dire financial circumstances,substantially curtail or cease our operations.We may need to engage in capital-raising transactions in the near future.Such financing transactions may well cause substantial dilution to ourshareholders and could involve the issuance of securities with rights senior to the outstanding shares.Our ability to complete additionalfinancings is dependent on,among other things,the state of the capital markets at the time of any proposed offering,market reception of theCompany and the likelihood of the success of its business model and offering terms.There is no assurance that we will be able to obtain any suchadditional capital through asset sales,equity or debt financing,or any combination thereof,on satisfactory terms or at all.Additionally,noassurance can be given that any such financing,if obtained,will be adequate to meet our capital needs and to support our operations.If we do notobtain adequate capital on a timely basis and on satisfactory terms,our revenues and operations and the value of our Ordinary Shares andOrdinary Share equivalents would be materially negatively impacted and we may cease our operations.We are dependent on certain key personnel and loss of these key personnel could have a material adverse effect on our business,financialcondition and results of operations.Our success is,to a certain extent,attributable to the management,sales and marketing,and research and development expertise of key personnel.We are dependent upon the services of Ms.Yinli Hu,our Chief Executive Officer,for the continued growth and operation of our Company,due toher industry experience,technical expertise,as well as her personal and business contacts in the PRC.Additionally,Mr.Zhigang Hu and Mr.Jianyong Hu perform key functions in the operation of our business.We may not be able to retain Ms.Yinli Hu,Mr.Zhigang Hu and Mr.Jianyong Hu for any given period of time.Although we have no reason to believe that Ms.Yinli Hu,Mr.Zhigang Hu and Mr.Jianyong Hu willdiscontinue their services with us or Hubeier Group the interruption or loss of his services would adversely affect our ability to effectively run ourbusiness and pursue our business strategy as well as our results of operations.We do not carry key man life insurance for any of our keypersonnel,nor do we foresee purchasing such insurance to protect against the loss of key personnel.If we fail to maintain an effective quality control system,our business could be materially and adversely affected.We place great emphasis on product quality and adhere to stringent quality control measures and have obtained quality control certifications forour products.To meet our customers requirements and expectations for the quality and safety of our products,we have adopted a stringentquality control system to ensure that every step of the production process is strictly monitored and managed.Failure to maintain an effectivequality control system or to obtain or renew our quality standards certifications may result in a decrease in demand for our products orcancellation or loss of purchase orders from our customers.Moreover,our reputation could be impaired.As a result,our business and results ofoperations could be materially and adversely affected.12 2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1958839/000195883922000003/f1.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1958839/000195883922000003/f1.htm13/95 The global coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant disruptions in our business,which may continue to materially andadversely affect our results of operations and financial condition.On March 11,2020,the World Health Organization declared the COVID-19 outbreak a global pandemic.Many businesses and social activities inChina and other countries and regions were severely disrupted in 2020,including those of our suppliers,customers and employees.Thispandemic has also caused market panics,which materially and negatively affected the global financial markets,such as the plunge of globalstocks on major stock exchanges in March 2020.Such disruption and slowdown of the worlds economy in 2020 and beyond had,and maycontinue to have,a material adverse effect on our results of operations and financial condition.We and our customers experienced significantbusiness disruptions and suspension of operations due to quarantine measures to contain the spread of the pandemic,which caused shortage in thesupply of raw materials,reduced our production capacity,increased the likelihood of default from our customers and delayed our productdelivery.All of these had resulted in a material adverse effect on our results of operations and financial condition in the fiscal year 2021.Theextent to which the COVID-19 pandemic may impact our business,operations and financial results will depend on numerous evolving factorsthat the Company cannot accurately predict at this time,including the uncertainty on the potential resurgence of the COVID-19 cases in China,the continual spread of the virus globally,and the instability of local and global government policies and restrictions.We are closely monitoringthe development of the COVID-19 pandemic and continuously evaluating any further potential impact on our business,results of operations andfinancial condition.If the pandemic persists or escalates,we may be subject to further negative impact on our business operations and financialcondition.A severe or prolonged downturn in the global or Chinese economy could materially and adversely affect our business and our financialcondition.Although the Chinese economy expanded well in the last two decades,the rapid growth of the Chinese economy has slowed down since 2012,and there is considerable uncertainty over the long-term effects of the expansionary monetary and fiscal policies adopted by the Peoples Bank ofChina and financial authorities of some of the worlds leading economies,including the United States and China.There have been concerns overunrest and terrorist threats in the Middle East,Europe and Africa,which have resulted in volatility in oil and other markets.There have also beenconcerns on the relationship among China and other Asian countries,which may result in or intensify potential conflicts in relation to territorialdisputes.Economic conditions in China are sensitive to global economic conditions,as well as changes in domestic economic and politicalpolicies and the expected or perceived overall economic growth rate in China.Any severe or prolonged slowdown in the global or Chineseeconomy may materially and adversely affect our business,results of operations and financial condition.Risks Related to Doing Business in China The Chinese government exerts substantial influence over the manner in which we must conduct our business activities.We are currentlynot required to obtain approval from Chinese authorities to list on U.S exchanges,however,if our subsidiaries or the holding companywere required to obtain approval in the future and were denied permission from Chinese authorities to list on U.S.exchanges,we will notbe able to continue listing on U.S.exchange,which would materially affect the interest of the investors.13 2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1958839/000195883922000003/f1.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1958839/000195883922000003/f1.htm14/95 Because of our corporate structure as a United Kingdom holding company with operations conducted by our PRC subsidiaries,it involves uniquerisks to investors.Furthermore,Chinese regulatory authorities could change the rules and regulations regarding foreign ownership in the industryin which the company operates,which would likely result in a material change in our operations and/or a material change in the value of thesecurities we are registering for sale,including that it could cause the value of such securities to significantly decline or become worthless.TheChinese government has exercised and continues to exercise substantial control over virtually every sector of the Chinese economy throughregulation and state ownership.Under the current government leadership,the government of the PRC has been pursuing reform policies whichhave adversely affected China-based operating companies whose securities are listed in the United States,with significant policies changes beingmade from time to time without notice.There are substantial uncertainties regarding the interpretation and application of PRC laws andregulations,including,but not limited to,the laws and regulations governing our business,or the enforcement and performance of our contractualarrangements with borrowers in the event of the imposition of statutory liens,death,bankruptcy or criminal proceedings.Our ability to operate inChina may be harmed by changes in its laws and regulations,including those relating to taxation,environmental regulations,land use rights,property and other matters.The central or local governments of these jurisdictions may impose new,stricter regulations or interpretations ofexisting regulations that would require additional expenditures and efforts on our part to ensure our compliance with such regulations orinterpretations.Accordingly,government actions in the future,including any decision not to continue to support recent economic reforms and toreturn to a more centrally planned economy or regional or local variations in the implementation of economic policies,could have a significanteffect on economic conditions in China or particular regions thereof,and could require us to divest ourselves of any interest we then hold inChinese properties.Given recent statements by the Chinese government indicating an intent to exert more oversight and control over offerings that are conductedoverseas and/or foreign investment in China-based issuers,any such action could significantly limit or completely hinder our ability to offer orcontinue to offer securities to investors and cause the value of such securities to significantly decline or become worthless.Recently,the General Office of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the General Office of the State Council jointlyissued the Opinions on Severely Cracking Down on Illegal Securities Activities According to Law,or the Opinions,which was made available tothe public on July 6,2021.The Opinions emphasized the need to strengthen the administration over illegal securities activities,and the need tostrengthen the supervision over overseas listings by Chinese companies.Effective measures,such as promoting the construction of relevantregulatory systems,will be taken to deal with the risks and incidents of China-concept overseas listed companies.As of the date of thisprospectus,we have not received any inquiry,notice,warning,or sanctions from PRC government authorities in connection with the Opinions.On June 10,2021,the Standing Committee of the National Peoples Congress of China,or the SCNPC,promulgated the PRC Data Security Law,which took effect in September 2021.The PRC Data Security Law imposes data security and privacy obligations on entities and individualscarrying out data activities,and introduces a data classification and hierarchical protection system based on the importance of data in economicand social development,and the degree of harm it will cause to national security,public interests,or legitimate rights and interests of individualsor organizations when such data is tampered with,destroyed,leaked,illegally acquired or used.The PRC Data Security Law also provides for anational security review procedure for data activities that may affect national security and imposes export restrictions on certain data aninformation.In early July 2021,regulatory authorities in China launched cybersecurity investigations with regard to several China-based companies that arelisted in the United States.The Chinese cybersecurity regulator announced on July 2 that it had begun an investigation of Didi Global Inc.(NYSE:DIDI)and two days later ordered that the companys app be removed from smartphone app stores.On July 5,2021,the Chinesecybersecurity regulator launched the same investigation on two other Internet platforms,Chinas Full Truck Alliance of Full Truck Alliance Co.Ltd.(NYSE:YMM)and Boss of KANZHUN LIMITED(Nasdaq:BZ).On July 24,2021,the General Office of the Communist Party of ChinaCentral Committee and the General Office of the State Council jointly released the Guidelines for Further Easing the Burden of ExcessiveHomework and Off-campus Tutoring for Students at the Stage of Compulsory Education,pursuant to which foreign investment in such firms viamergers and acquisitions,franchise development,and variable interest entities are banned from this sector.14 2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1958839/000195883922000003/f1.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1958839/000195883922000003/f1.htm15/95 On August 17,2021,the State Council promulgated the Regulations on the Protection of the Security of Critical Information Infrastructure,or theRegulations,which took effect on September 1,2021.The Regulations supplement and specify the provisions on the security of criticalinformation infrastructure as stated in the Cybersecurity Review Measures.The Regulations provide,among others,that protection department ofcertain industry or sector shall notify the operator of the critical information infrastructure in time after the identification of certain criticalinformation infrastructure.On August 20,2021,the SCNPC promulgated the Personal Information Protection Law of the PRC,or the Personal Information Protection Law,which took effect in November 2021.As the first systematic and comprehensive law specifically for the protection of personal information in thePRC,the Personal Information Protection Law provides,among others,that(i)an individuals consent shall be obtained to use sensitive personalinformation,such as biometric characteristics and individual location tracking,(ii)personal information operators using sensitive personalinformation shall notify individuals of the necessity of such use and impact on the individuals rights,and(iii)where personal informationoperators reject an individuals request to exercise his or her rights,the individual may file a lawsuit with a Peoples Court.As such,the Companys business segments may be subject to various government and regulatory interference in the provinces in which theyoperate.The Company could be subject to regulation by various political and regulatory entities,including various local and municipal agenciesand government sub-divisions.The Company may incur increased costs necessary to comply with existing and newly adopted laws andregulations or penalties for any failure to comply.Additionally,the governmental and regulatory interference could significantly limit orcompletely hinder our ability to offer or continue to offer securities to investors and cause the value of such securities to significantly decline orbe worthless.Furthermore,it is uncertain when and whether the Company will be required to obtain permission from the PRC government to list on U.S.exchanges in the future,and even when such permission is obtained,whether it will be denied or rescinded.Although the Company is currentlynot required to obtain permission from any of the PRC federal or local government to obtain such permission and has not received any denial tolist on the U.S.exchange,our operations could be adversely affected,directly or indirectly,by existing or future laws and regulations relating toits business or industry.On December 24,2021,the CSRC,together with other relevant government authorities in China issued the Provisions of the State Council on theAdministration of Overseas Securities Offering and Listing by Domestic Companies(Draft for Comments),and the Measures for the Filing ofOverseas Securities Offering and Listing by Domestic Companies(Draft for Comments)(“Draft Overseas Listing Regulations”).The DraftOverseas Listing Regulations requires that a PRC domestic enterprise seeking to issue and list its shares overseas(“Overseas Issuance andListing”)shall complete the filing procedures of and submit the relevant information to CSRC.The Overseas Issuance and Listing includes directand indirect issuance and listing.Where an enterprise whose principal business activities are conducted in PRC seeks to issue and list its shares inthe name of an overseas enterprise(“Overseas Issuer”)on the basis of the equity,assets,income or other similar rights and interests of therelevant PRC domestic enterprise,such activities shall be deemed an indirect overseas issuance and listing(“Indirect Overseas Issuance andListing”)under the Draft Overseas Listing Regulations.Therefore,the proposed listing would be deemed an Indirect Overseas Issuance andListing under the Draft Overseas Listing Regulations.As such,the Company would be required to complete the filing procedures of and submitthe relevant information to CSRC after the Draft Overseas Listing Regulations become effective.15 2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1958839/000195883922000003/f1.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1958839/000195883922000003/f1.htm16/95 In addition,on December 28,2021,the CAC,the National Development and Reform Commission(“NDRC”),and several other administrationsjointly issued the revised Measures for Cybersecurity Review,or the Revised Review Measures,which became effective and has replaced theexisting Measures for Cybersecurity Review on February 15,2022.According to the Revised Review Measures,if an“online platform operator”that is in possession of personal data of more than one million users intends to list in a foreign country,it must apply for a cybersecurity review.Based on a set of Q&A published on the official website of the State Cipher Code Administration in connection with the issuance of the RevisedReview Measures,an official of the said administration indicated that an online platform operator should apply for a cybersecurity review prior tothe submission of its listing application with non-PRC securities regulators.Given the recency of the issuance of the Revised Review Measuresand their pending effectiveness,there is a general lack of guidance and substantial uncertainties exist with respect to their interpretation andimplementation.For example,it is unclear whether the requirement of cybersecurity review applies to follow-on offerings by an“online platformoperator”that is in possession of personal data of more than one million users where the offshore holding company of such operator is alreadylisted overseas.Furthermore,the CAC released the draft of the Regulations on Network Data Security Management in November 2021 for publicconsultation,which among other things,stipulates that a data processor listed overseas must conduct an annual data security review by itself orby engaging a data security service provider and submit the annual data security review report for a given year to the municipal cybersecuritydepartment before January 31 of the following year.If the draft Regulations on Network Data Security Management are enacted in the currentform,we,as an overseas listed company,will be required to carry out an annual data security review and comply with the relevant reportingobligations.As of the date of this prospectus,none of our PRC subsidiaries operations involve storing of personal information of PRC individual clients.However,given the above uncertainties,it is unclear how the Revised Review Measures and the final draft Regulations on Network Data SecurityManagement will affect us.We have been closely monitoring the development in the regulatory landscape in China,particularly regarding therequirement of approvals,including on a retrospective basis,from the CSRC,the CAC or other PRC authorities with respect to this offering,aswell as regarding any annual data security review or other procedures that may be imposed on us.If any approval,review or other procedure is infact required,we are not able to guarantee that we will obtain such approval or complete such review or other procedure timely or at all.For anyapproval that we may be able to obtain,it could nevertheless be revoked and the terms of its issuance may impose restrictions on our operationsand offerings relating to our securities.Changes in Chinas economic,political or social conditions or government policies could have a material adverse effect on our businessand results of operations.Substantially all of our operations are located in China.Accordingly,our business,prospects,financial condition,and results of operations maybe influenced significantly by political,economic,and social conditions in China generally and by continued economic growth in China as awhole.The Chinese economy differs from the economies of most developed countries in many respects,including the amount of governmentinvolvement,level of development,growth rate,control of the foreign exchange,and allocation of resources.Although the Chinese governmenthas implemented measures emphasizing the utilization of market forces for economic reform,the reduction of state ownership of productiveassets,and the establishment of improved corporate governance in business enterprises,a substantial portion of productive assets in China is stillowned by the government.In addition,the Chinese government continues to play a significant role in regulating industry development byimposing industrial policies.The Chinese government also exercises significant control over Chinas economic growth through allocatingresources,controlling payment of foreign currency-denominated obligations,setting monetary policy,and providing preferential treatment toparticular industries or companies.While the Chinese economy has experienced significant growth over the past decades,growth has been uneven,both geographically and amongvarious sectors of the economy.The Chinese government has implemented various measures to encourage economic growth and guide theallocation of resources.Some of these measures may benefit the overall Chinese economy but may harm us.For example,our financial conditionand results of operations may be adversely affected by government control over capital investments or changes in tax regulations.In addition,inthe past,the Chinese government has implemented certain measures,including interest rate increases,to control the pace of economic growth.These measures may cause decreased economic activity in China,and since 2012,Chinas economic growth has slowed down.Any prolongedslowdown in the Chinese economy may reduce the demand for our products and services and materially and adversely affect our business andresults of operations.16 2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1958839/000195883922000003/f1.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1958839/000195883922000003/f1.htm17/95 We may also decide to finance our PRC subsidiaries using capital contributions.The Ministry of Commerce(“MOC”)or its local counterpartmust approve these capital contributions.On March 30,2015,the State Administration of Foreign Exchange,or SAFE,promulgated Circular ofthe State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Reforming the Management Approach regarding the Settlement of Foreign Exchange Capital ofForeign-invested Enterprises,or Circular 19,which expands a pilot reform of the administration of the settlement of the foreign exchange capitalsof foreign-invested enterprises nationwide.Circular 19 came into force and replaced previous Circular 142 and Circular 36 on June 1,2015.OnJune 9,2016,SAFE promulgated the Circular of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Reforming and Regulating Policies on theControl over Foreign Exchange Settlement of Capital Accounts,or Circular 16,to further expand and strengthen such reform.Under Circular 19and Circular 16,foreign-invested enterprises in the PRC are allowed to use their foreign exchange funds under capital accounts and RMB fundsfrom exchange settlement for expenditure under current accounts within its business scope or expenditure under capital accounts permitted bylaws and regulations,except that such funds shall not be used for(i)expenditure beyond the enterprises business scope or expenditure prohibitedby laws and regulations;(ii)investments in securities or other investments than principal-secured products issued by banks;(iii)granting loans tonon-affiliated enterprises,except where it is expressly permitted in the business license;and(iv)construction or purchase of real estate forpurposes other than self-use(except for real estate enterprises).In addition,SAFE strengthened its oversight of the flow and use of the RMBcapital converted from foreign currency registered capital of a foreign-invested company.The use of such RMB capital may not be alteredwithout SAFEs approval,and such RMB capital may not,in any case,be used to repay RMB loans if the proceeds of such loans have not beenused.Violations of these circulars could result in severe monetary or other penalties.These circulars may significantly limit our ability to useRMB converted from the cash provided by our offshore financing activities to fund the establishment of new entities in China by our PRCsubsidiaries,to invest in or acquire any other PRC companies through our PRC subsidiaries.In light of the various requirements imposed by PRC regulations on loans to and direct investment in PRC entities by offshore holdingcompanies,we cannot assure you that we will be able to complete the necessary government registrations or obtain the necessary governmentapprovals on a timely basis,if at all,with respect to future loans to our PRC subsidiaries or future capital contributions by us to our PRCsubsidiaries.If we fail to complete such registrations or obtain such approvals,our ability to use the proceeds we expect to receive from ourinitial public offering to capitalize or otherwise fund our PRC operations may be negatively affected,which could materially and adversely affectour liquidity and our ability to fund and expand our business.The PRC government may impose restrictions on our ability to transfer cash out of China and to U.S.investors.The PRC government imposes controls on the convertibility of Renminbi into foreign currencies and,in certain cases,the remittance of currencyout of China.To the extent that our income is received in Renminbi,shortages in foreign currencies may restrict our ability to pay dividends orother payments,or otherwise satisfy our foreign currency denominated obligations,if any.Under existing PRC foreign exchange regulations,payments of current account items,including profit distributions,interest payments and expenditures from trade-related transactions,can be madein foreign currencies without prior approval from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange,or SAFE,as long as certain proceduralrequirements are met.Approval from appropriate government authorities is required if Renminbi is converted into foreign currency and remittedout of China to pay capital expenses such as the repayment of loans denominated in foreign currencies.The PRC government may,at itsdiscretion,impose restrictions on access to foreign currencies for current account transactions.To address persistent capital outflows and the RMBs depreciation against the U.S.dollar in the fourth quarter of 2016,the Peoples Bank ofChina and the SAFE implemented a series of capital control measures in the subsequent months,including stricter vetting procedures for China-based companies to remit foreign currency for overseas acquisitions,dividend payments and shareholder loan repayments.The PRC governmentmay continue to strengthen its capital controls and our PRC subsidiaries dividends and other distributions may be subject to tightened scrutiny inthe future.The PRC government also imposes controls on the conversion of RMB into foreign currencies and the remittance of currencies out ofthe PRC.Therefore,we may experience difficulties in completing the administrative procedures necessary to obtain and remit foreign currencyfor the payment of dividends from our profits,if any.Furthermore,there can be no assurance that the PRC government will not intervene orimpose restrictions on our ability to transfer or distribute cash within our organization or to foreign investors,which could result in an inability orprohibition on making transfers or distributions outside of China and adversely affect our business as well as your investment.17 2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1958839/000195883922000003/f1.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1958839/000195883922000003/f1.htm18/95 As of the date of this prospectus,we are not aware of other material restrictions and limitations on our ability to distribute earnings from ourbusinesses,including our subsidiaries,to the parent company and U.S.investors or our ability to settle amounts owed,or on foreign exchange orour ability to transfer cash between entities within our group,across borders,or to U.S.investors.PRC laws and regulations governing our current business operations are sometimes vague and uncertain and any changes in such lawsand regulations may impair our ability to operate profitably.There are substantial uncertainties regarding the interpretation and application of PRC laws and regulations including,but not limited to,the lawsand regulations governing our business and the enforcement and performance of our arrangements with customers in certain circumstances.Thelaws and regulations are sometimes vague and may be subject to future changes,and their official interpretation and enforcement may involvesubstantial uncertainty.The effectiveness and interpretation of newly enacted laws or regulations,including amendments to existing laws andregulations,may be delayed,and our business may be affected if we rely on laws and regulations which are subsequently adopted or interpretedin a manner different from our understanding of these laws and regulations.New laws and regulations that affect existing and proposed futurebusinesses may also be applied retroactively.We cannot predict what effect the interpretation of existing or new PRC laws or regulations mayhave on our business.Substantial uncertainties exist with respect to the enactment timetable and final content of draft China Foreign Investment Law and howit may impact the viability of our current corporate structure,corporate governance and business operations.The MOFCOM published a discussion draft of the proposed Foreign Investment Law in January 2015(the“Draft FIL”).The Draft FIL embodiesan expected Chinese regulatory trend to rationalize its foreign investment regulatory regime in line with prevailing international practice and thelegislative efforts to unify the corporate legal requirements for both foreign and domestic investments.Among other things,the Draft FIL expands the definition of foreign investment and introduces the principle of“actual control”in determiningwhether a company is considered a foreign-invested enterprise(“FIE”).The Draft FIL specifically provides that entities established in China but“controlled”by foreign investors will be treated as FIEs,whereas an entity set up in a foreign jurisdiction would nonetheless be,upon marketentry clearance,treated as a Chinese domestic investor provided that the entity is“controlled”by Chinese entities and/or citizens.Once an entityis determined to be an FIE,it will be subject to the foreign investment restrictions or prohibitions set forth in a Negative List to be separatelyissued by the State Council later.Unless the underlying business of the FIE falls within the Negative List,which calls for market entry clearance,prior approval from the government authorities as mandated by the existing foreign investment legal regime would no longer be required forestablishment of the FIE.On December 27,2021,the NDRC and MOFCOM,jointly issued the Special Administrative Measures for Entry of Foreign Investment(Negative List)(2021 Version),or the Negative List,which became effective and replaced the previous version on January 1,2022.Pursuant tothe Negative List,if a PRC company,which engages in any business where foreign investment is prohibited under the Negative List,orprohibited businesses,seeks an overseas offering or listing,it must obtain the approval from competent governmental authorities.Based on a setof Q&A published on the NDRCs official website,a NDRC official indicated that after a PRC company submits its application for overseaslisting to the CSRC and where matters relating to prohibited businesses under the Negative List are implicated,the CSRC will consult theregulatory authorities having jurisdiction over the relevant industries and fields.18 2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1958839/000195883922000003/f1.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1958839/000195883922000003/f1.htm19/95 Because the Overseas Listing Rules are currently in draft form and given the novelty of the Negative List,there remain substantial uncertaintiesas to whether and what requirements,including filing requirements,will be imposed on a PRC company with respect to its listing and offeringsoverseas as well as with the interpretation and implementation of existing and future regulations in this regard.For example,it is unclear as towhether the approval requirement under the Negative List will apply to follow-on offerings by PRC companies engaged in prohibited businessesand whose offshore holding company is listed overseas.If such approval is in fact required and given the NDRCs indication of CSRCsinvolvement in the approval process,there is also a lack of clarity on the application procedure,requirement and timeline which may not beresolved until the Overseas Listing Rules,which provide for the filing procedures of the overseas offering and listing of a PRC company with theCSRC,is enacted.If the Overseas Listing Rules are enacted in the current form before the completion of this offering,we will be required tomake a filing with the CSRC in connection with this offering within three business days after its completion.If the approval requirement underthe Negative List applies to follow-on offerings by PRC companies whose offshore holding company is listed overseas,we may be required toobtain an approval for this offering or we may be required to relinquish our licenses pertaining to prohibited businesses.If we relinquish or arerequired to relinquish these licenses,while we do not expect our business operation to be materially adversely affected,we are uncertain whetheror when the relevant procedures will be completed.There are uncertainties under the PRC laws relating to the procedures for U.S.regulators to investigate and collect evidence fromcompanies located in the PRC.According to Article 177 of the newly amended PRC Securities Law which became effective in March 2020(the“Article 177”),the securitiesregulatory authority of the PRC State Council may collaborate with securities regulatory authorities of other countries or regions in order tomonitor and oversee cross border securities activities.Article 177 further provides that overseas securities regulatory authorities are not allowedto carry out investigation and evidence collection directly within the territory of the PRC,and that any Chinese entities and individuals are notallowed to provide documents or materials related to securities business activities to overseas agencies without prior consent of the securitiesregulatory authority of the PRC State Council and the competent departments of the PRC State Council.Our PRC counsel,has advised us of their understanding that(i)the Article 177 is applicable in the limited circumstances related to directinvestigation or evidence collection conducted by overseas authorities within the territory of the PRC(in such case,the foregoing activities arerequired to be conducted through collaboration with or by obtaining prior consent of competent Chinese authorities);(ii)the Article 177 does notlimit or prohibit the Company,as a company duly incorporated in United Kingdom and to be listed on Nasdaq,from providing the requireddocuments or information to Nasdaq or the SEC pursuant to applicable Listing Rules and U.S.securities laws;and(iii)as the Article 177 isrelatively new and there is no implementing rules or regulations which have been published regarding application of the Article 177,it remainsunclear how the law will be interpreted,implemented or applied by the Chinese Securities Regulatory Commission or other relevant governmentauthorities.As of the date hereof,we are not aware of any implementing rules or regulations which have been published regarding applicationof Article 177.However,we cannot assure you that relevant PRC government agencies,including the securities regulatory authority of the PRCState Council,would reach the same conclusion as we do.As such,there are uncertainties as to the procedures and time requirement for the U.S.regulators to bring about investigations and evidence collection within the territory of the PRC.Our principal business operation is conducted in the PRC.In the event that the U.S.regulators carry out investigation on us and there is a need toconduct investigation or collect evidence within the territory of the PRC,the U.S.regulators may not be able to carry out such investigation orevidence collection directly in the PRC under the PRC laws.The U.S.regulators may consider cross-border cooperation with securitiesregulatory authority of the PRC by way of judicial assistance,diplomatic channels or regulatory cooperation mechanism established with thesecurities regulatory authority of the PRC.19 2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1958839/000195883922000003/f1.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1958839/000195883922000003/f1.htm20/95 We rely on dividends,loans and other distributions on equity paid by our PRC subsidiaries to fund any cash and financing requirementswe may have.Any limitation on the ability of our PRC subsidiaries to make loans or payments to us could have a material adverse effecton our ability to conduct our business.We are a holding company and rely on dividends,loans and other distributions on equity paid by our PRC subsidiaries for our cash and financingrequirements,including the funds necessary to pay dividends and other cash distributions to our shareholders and service any debt or pay anyexpense we may incur.In the event that our PRC subsidiaries incur debt on their own behalf in the future,the instruments governing the debt mayrestrict their ability to pay dividends or make other distributions to us.In addition,the PRC tax authorities may require our PRC subsidiaries toadjust their taxable income in a manner that would materially and adversely affect their ability to pay dividends and other distributions to us.Under PRC laws and regulations,our PRC subsidiaries,as wholly foreign-owned enterprises in China,may pay dividends only out of theirrespective accumulated after-tax profits as determined in accordance with PRC accounting standards and regulations.In addition,a whollyforeign-owned enterprise is required to set aside at least 10%of its accumulated after-tax profits each year,if any,to fund certain statutory reservefunds until the aggregate amount of such funds reaches 50%of its registered capital.At its discretion,a wholly foreign-owned enterprise mayallocate a portion of its after-tax profits based on PRC accounting standards to staff welfare and bonus funds.These reserve funds and staffwelfare and bonus funds are not distributable as cash dividends.Under existing PRC foreign exchange regulations,payment of current account items,such as profit distributions and trade and service-relatedforeign exchange transactions,can be made in foreign currencies without prior approval from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange,orthe SAFE,by complying with certain procedural requirements.Therefore,our PRC subsidiaries are able to pay dividends in foreign currencies tous without prior approval from SAFE,subject to the condition that the remittance of such dividends outside of the PRC complies with certainprocedures under PRC foreign exchange regulations,such as the overseas investment registrations by our shareholders or the ultimateshareholders of our corporate shareholders who are PRC residents.Approval from,or registration with,appropriate government authorities is,however,required where the RMB is to be converted into foreign currency and remitted out of China to pay capital expenses such as therepayment of loans denominated in foreign currencies.The PRC government may also at its discretion restrict access in the future to foreigncurrencies for current account transactions.Current PRC regulations permit our PRC subsidiaries to pay dividends to the Company only out oftheir accumulated profits,if any,determined in accordance with Chinese accounting standards and regulations.In response to the persistentcapital outflow and the Renminbis depreciation against the U.S.dollar in the fourth quarter of 2016,the Peoples Bank of China and the StateAdministration of Foreign Exchange,or SAFE,have implemented a series of capital control measures,including stricter vetting procedures forChina-based companies to remit foreign currency for overseas acquisitions,dividend payments,and shareholder loan repayments.The PRCgovernment may continue to strengthen its capital controls,and our PRC subsidiaries dividends and other distributions may be subjected totighter scrutiny in the future.Any limitation on the ability of our PRC subsidiaries to pay dividends or make other distributions to us couldmaterially and adversely limit our ability to grow,make investments or acquisitions that could be beneficial to our business,pay dividends,orotherwise fund and conduct our business.Fluctuations in exchange rates could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations and the price of our ordinary shares.Substantially,our revenues and expenditures are denominated in RMB,whereas our reporting currency is the U.S.dollar.As a result,fluctuationsin the exchange rate between the U.S.dollar and RMB will affect the relative purchasing power in RMB terms of our U.S.dollar assets and theproceeds from our initial public offering.Our reporting currency is the U.S.dollar,while the functional currency for our PRC subsidiaries isRMB.Gains and losses from the re-measurement of assets and liabilities receivable or payable in RMB are included in our consolidatedstatements of operations.The re-measurement has caused the U.S.dollar value of our results of operations to vary with exchange ratefluctuations,and the U.S.dollar value of our results of operations will continue to vary with exchange rate fluctuations.A fluctuation in the valueof RMB relative to the U.S.dollar could reduce our profits from operations and the translated value of our net assets when reported in U.S.dollars in our financial statements.This change in value could negatively impact our business,financial condition,or results of operations asreported in U.S.dollars.In the event that we decide to convert our RMB into U.S.dollars to make payments for dividends on our ordinary sharesor for other business purposes,appreciation of the U.S.dollar against the RMB will harm the U.S.dollar amount available to us.In addition,fluctuations in currencies relative to the periods in which the earnings are generated may make it more difficult to perform period-to-periodcomparisons of our reported results of operations.20 2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1958839/000195883922000003/f1.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1958839/000195883922000003/f1.htm21/95 The value of the RMB against the U.S.dollar and other currencies is affected by,among other things,changes in Chinas political and economicconditions and Chinas foreign exchange policies.On July 21,2005,the PRC government changed its decades-old policy of pegging the value ofthe RMB to the U.S.dollar,and the RMB appreciated more than 20%against the U.S.dollar over the following three years.However,the PBOCregularly intervenes in the foreign exchange market to limit fluctuations in RMB exchange rates and achieve policy goals.Between July 2008 andJune 2010,the exchange rate between the RMB and the U.S.dollar had been stable and traded within a narrow range.Since June 2010,the RMBhas fluctuated against the U.S.dollar,at times significantly and unpredictably.Since October 1,2016,Renminbi has joined the InternationalMonetary Fund(IMF)s basket of currencies that make up the Special Drawing Right(SDR)and the U.S.dollar,the Euro,the Japanese yen,andthe British pound.In the fourth quarter of 2016,the RMB has depreciated significantly in the backdrop of a surging U.S.dollar and persistentcapital outflows of China.With the development of the foreign exchange market and progress towards interest rate liberalization and Renminbiinternationalization,the PRC government may announce further changes to the exchange rate system.We cannot assure you that the Renminbiwill not appreciate or depreciate significantly in value against the U.S.dollar in the future.It is difficult to predict how market forces or PRC orU.S.government policy may impact the exchange rate between the Renminbi and the U.S.dollar in the future.There remains significant international pressure on the PRC government to adopt a flexible currency policy.Any significant appreciation ordepreciation of the RMB may materially and adversely affect our revenues,earnings and financial position,and the value of,and any dividendspayable on,our ordinary shares in U.S.dollars.For example,to the extent that we need to convert U.S.dollars we receive from our initial publicoffering into RMB to pay our operating expenses,appreciation of the RMB against the U.S.dollar would adversely affect the RMB amount wewould receive from the conversion.Conversely,a significant depreciation of the RMB against the U.S.dollar may significantly reduce the U.S.dollar equivalent of our earnings,which in turn could adversely affect the price of our ordinary shares.Very limited hedging options are available in China to reduce our exposure to exchange rate fluctuations.To date,we have not entered into anyhedging transactions to reduce our exposure to foreign currency exchange risk.While we may decide to enter into hedging transactions in thefuture,the availability and effectiveness of these hedges may be limited.We may not be able to hedge our exposure adequately.In addition,ourcurrency exchange losses may be magnified by PRC exchange control regulations that restrict our ability to convert RMB into foreign currency.As a result,fluctuations in exchange rates may have a material adverse effect on the price of our ordinary shares.PRC regulation of loans to,and direct investments in,PRC entities by offshore holding companies may delay or prevent us from makingloans or additional capital contributions to our PRC operating subsidiaries and thereby prevent us from funding our business.As an offshore holding company with PRC subsidiaries,we may transfer funds to our PRC subsidiaries by means of loans or capitalcontributions.Any loans to these PRC subsidiaries,which are foreign-invested enterprises,cannot exceed statutory limits based on the differencebetween the amount of our investments and registered capital in such subsidiaries,and shall be registered with SAFE,or its local counterparts.Furthermore,any capital increase contributions we make to our PRC subsidiaries,which are foreign-invested enterprises,shall be approved byMOFCOM,or its local counterparts.We may not be able to obtain these government registrations or approvals on a timely basis,if at all.If wefail to receive such registrations or approvals,our ability to provide loans or capital to increase contributions to our PRC subsidiaries may benegatively affected,which could adversely affect their liquidity and our ability to fund and expand their business.21 2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1958839/000195883922000003/f1.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1958839/000195883922000003/f1.htm22/95 PRC regulations relating to the establishment of offshore special purpose vehicles by PRC residents may subject our PRC-residentbeneficial owners or our PRC subsidiaries to liability or penalties,limit our ability to make capital contributions into our PRCsubsidiaries,limit our PRC subsidiaries ability to distribute profits to us,or otherwise adversely affect our financial position.Under several regulations promulgated by SAFE,PRC residents and PRC corporate entities are required to register with and obtain approvalfrom local branches of SAFE or designated qualified foreign exchange banks in mainland China in connection with their direct or indirectoffshore investment activities.In addition,any PRC resident who is a direct or indirect shareholder of an offshore company is required to updatethe previously filed registration with the local branch of SAFE,with respect to any material change involving that offshore company,such as anincrease or decrease in capital,transfer or swap of shares,merger or division.These regulations apply to all direct and indirect shareholders andbeneficial owners of our company who are PRC residents,or PRC-Resident Shareholders,and may apply to any offshore acquisitions that wemake in the future.To the best of our knowledge,as of the date of this prospectus,each of our principal shareholders who is required to make theforeign exchange registration under SAFE Circular 37 had completed such registration.However,we may not at all times be fully aware orinformed of the identities of all the PRC residents holding direct or indirect interests in our company,and we cannot assure you that all of ourshareholders and beneficial owners who are PRC residents will comply with these foreign exchange regulations.If any PRC-Resident Shareholder fails to make the required registration or update a previously filed registration,our PRC subsidiaries may beprohibited from distributing their profits and proceeds from any reduction in capital,share transfer or liquidation to us,and we may also beprohibited from injecting additional capital into our PRC subsidiaries.Moreover,failure to comply with the various foreign exchange registrationrequirements described above could result in liability on the related PRC-Resident shareholder or our PRC subsidiaries under the PRC laws forevasion of applicable foreign exchange restrictions.Governmental control of currency conversion may limit our ability to utilize our net revenues effectively and affect the value of yourinvestment.The PRC government imposes controls on the convertibility of the RMB into foreign currencies and,in certain cases,the remittance of currencyout of China.We receive substantially all of our net revenues in RMB.Under our current corporate structure,our company in the UnitedKingdom may rely on dividend payments from our PRC subsidiaries to fund any cash and financing requirements we may have.Under existingPRC foreign exchange regulations,payments of current account items,such as profit distributions and trade and service-related foreign exchangetransactions,can be made in foreign currencies without prior approval from SAFE by complying with certain procedural requirements.Therefore,our PRC subsidiaries are able to pay dividends in foreign currencies to us without prior approval from SAFE,subject to the condition that theremittance of such dividends outside of the PRC complies with certain procedures under PRC foreign exchange regulation,such as the overseasinvestment registrations by the beneficial owners of our company who are PRC residents.But approval from or registration with appropriategovernment authorities is required where RMB is converted into foreign currency and remitted out of China to pay capital expenses such as therepayment of loans denominated in foreign currencies.In light of Chinas flood of capital outflows in 2016 due to the weakening RMB,the PRC government has imposed more restrictive foreignexchange policies and stepped up scrutiny of major outbound capital movements.More restrictions and a substantial vetting process are put inplace by SAFE to regulate cross-border transactions falling under the capital account.The PRC government may also,at its discretion,restrictaccess in the future to foreign currencies for current account transactions.In the event that the foreign exchange control system prevents us fromobtaining sufficient foreign currencies to satisfy our foreign currency demands,we may not be able to pay dividends in foreign currencies to ourshareholders.22 2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1958839/000195883922000003/f1.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1958839/000195883922000003/f1.htm23/95 We must remit the offering proceeds to PRC before they may be used to benefit our business in the PRC,and this process may takeseveral months.The proceeds of this offering must be sent back to the PRC,and the process for sending such proceeds back to the PRC may take several monthsafter the closing of this offering.We may be unable to use these proceeds to grow our business until we receive such proceeds in the PRC.Toremit the offering proceeds to the PRC,we will take the following actions:First,we will open a special foreign exchange account for capital account transactions.To open this account,we must submit to StateAdministration for Foreign Exchange(“SAFE”)certain application forms,identity documents,transaction documents,a form of foreignexchange registration of overseas investments by domestic residents,and foreign exchange registration certificate of the invested company.Second,we will remit the offering proceeds into this special foreign exchange account.Third,we will apply for settlement of the foreign exchange.To do so,we must submit to SAFE certain application forms,identity documents,payment order to a designated person,and a tax certificate.The timing of the process is difficult to estimate because the efficiencies of different SAFE branches can vary materially.Ordinarily,the processtakes several months to complete but is required by law to be accomplished within 180 days of application.Until the abovementioned approvals,the proceeds of this offering will be maintained in an interest-bearing account maintained by us in the United States.Some of our shareholders are not in compliance with the PRCs regulations relating to offshore investment activities by PRC residents,and as a result,the shareholders may be subject to penalties if we are not able to remediate the non-compliance.In July 2014,the State Administration of Foreign Exchange promulgated the Circular on Issues Concerning Foreign Exchange Administrationover the Overseas Investment and Financing and Roundtrip Investment by Domestic Residents via Special Purpose Vehicles,or“Circular 37”.According to Circular 37,prior registration with the local SAFE branch is required for Chinese residents to contribute domestic assets or intereststo offshore companies,known as SPVs.Circular 37 further requires amendment to a PRC residents registration in the event of any significantchanges with respect to the SPV,such as an increase or decrease in the capital contributed by PRC individuals,share transfer or exchange,merger,division,or other material event.Further,foreign investment enterprises established by way of round-tripping shall complete the relevantforeign exchange registration formalities pursuant to the prevailing foreign exchange control provisions for direct investments by foreigninvestors,and disclose the relevant information such as actual controlling party of the shareholders truthfully.Currently,some of our shareholders have completed Circular 37 Registration and are in compliance.Some of our beneficial owners,who arePRC residents,have not completed the Circular 37 Registration.All our significant shareholders,directors and officers have completed Circular37 Registration.We have asked our shareholders who are Chinese residents to make the necessary applications and filings as required by Circular37.We attempt to comply,and attempt to ensure that our shareholders who are subject to these rules comply,with the relevant requirements.Wecannot,however,provide any assurances that all of our and future shareholders who are Chinese residents will comply with our request to makeor obtain any applicable registration or comply with other requirements required by Circular 37 or other related rules.The Chinese residentshareholders failure to comply with Circular 37 registration may result in restrictions being imposed on part of foreign exchange activities of theoffshore special purpose vehicles,including restrictions on its ability to receive registered capital as well as additional capital from Chineseresident shareholders who fail to complete Circular 37 registration;and repatriation of profits and dividends derived from special purposevehicles to China,by the Chinese resident shareholders who fail to complete Circular 37 registration,are also illegal.In addition,the failure ofthe Chinese resident shareholders to complete Circular 37 registration may subject each of the shareholders to fines less than RMB50,000.Wecannot assure you that each of our Chinese resident shareholders will in the future complete the registration process as required by Circular 37.23 2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1958839/000195883922000003/f1.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1958839/000195883922000003/f1.htm24/95 Failure to make adequate contributions to various employee benefit plans required by PRC regulations may subject us to penalties.We are required under PRC laws and regulations to participate in various government-sponsored employee benefit plans,including certain socialinsurance,housing funds,and other welfare-oriented payment obligations,and contribute to the plans in amounts equal to certain percentages ofsalaries,including bonuses and allowances,of our employees up to a maximum amount specified by the local government from time to time atlocations where we operate our businesses.The requirement of employee benefit plans has not been implemented consistently by the localgovernments in China,given the different levels of economic development in different locations.In the event that the local governments deemour contribution to be not sufficient,we may be subject to late contribution fees or fines in relation to any underpaid employee benefits,and ourfinancial condition and results of operations may be adversely affected.According to the Interim Regulations on the Collection and Payment of Social Insurance Premiums,the Regulations on Work Injury Insurance,the Regulations on Unemployment Insurance and the Trial Measures on Employee Maternity Insurance of Enterprises,enterprises in the PRCshall provide benefit plans for their employees,which include basic pension insurance,unemployment insurance,maternity insurance,workinjury insurance and basic medical insurance.An enterprise must provide social insurance by making social insurance registration with localsocial insurance agencies,and shall pay or withhold relevant social insurance premiums for and on behalf of employees.The Law on SocialInsurance of the PRC,which was promulgated by the SCNPC on October 28,2010,became effective on July 1,2011,and was most recentlyupdated on December 29,2018,has consolidated pertinent provisions for basic pension insurance,unemployment insurance,maternity insurance,work injury insurance and basic medical insurance,and has elaborated in detail the legal obligations and liabilities of employers who do notcomply with laws and regulations on social insurance.According to the Regulations on the Administration of Housing Provident Fund,which was promulgated by the State Counsel and becameeffective on April 3,1999,and was amended on March 24,2002 and was partially revised on March 24,2019 by the Decision of the StateCouncil on Revising Some Administrative Regulations(Decree No.710 of the State Council),housing provident fund contributions by anindividual employee and housing provident fund contributions by his or her employer shall belong to the individual employee.Registration byPRC companies with the applicable housing provident fund management center is compulsory,and a special housing provident fund account foreach of the employees shall be opened at an entrusted bank.24 2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1958839/000195883922000003/f1.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1958839/000195883922000003/f1.htm25/95 The government supervision of social insurance policy has not been implemented consistently by the local governments in China given thedifferent levels of economic development in different locations.According to the Social Insurance Law of the Peoples Republic of China,wemay be ordered to pay the outstanding social insurance contributions within a prescribed deadline and liable for a late payment fee equal to0.05%of the outstanding amount for each day of delay,in addition to a fine a fine ranging from RMB 10,000 to RMB 50,000.Furthermore,wemay be liable for a fine of one to three times the amount of the outstanding contributions,provided that we still fail to pay the outstanding socialinsurance contributions within the prescribed deadline.In addition,according to the Regulations on the Administration of Housing ProvidentFund,we may be ordered by the Housing Accumulation Fund Management Center to deposit the outstanding funds within a time limit.If we failto deposit such amounts within the time limit,the Center may petition a peoples court to enforce the payment.Additionally,the standard for fineimposition has become highly discretional for the local government to decide whether to enforce compliance with the employee social fundregulations,if at all.As of the date of the prospectus,given that(i)the requirement of social insurance and housing fund has not beenimplemented consistently by the local governments in China given the different levels of economic development in different locations;(ii)pursuant to the Emergency Notice on Practicing Principles of the State Council Executive Meeting and Stabilizing Work on Collecting SocialInsurance Premiums promulgated by the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security on September 21,2018,local authorities areprohibited from recovering unpaid social insurance premiums from enterprises;(iii)as of the date of this Prospectus,the Company had notreceived any notice or order from the relevant government authorities requesting us to pay the social insurance premiums or housing funds in full;(iv)as of the date of this Prospectus,the Company had not received any complaint or report on outstanding social insurance premiums or housingfunds,nor had them had any labor dispute or lawsuit with their employees on payments of social insurance premiums or housing provident fund;and(v)the Company had not been subject to any administrative penalties,the Company has not made any provisions in connection with theshortfall of its social insurance contribution and housing provident funds for the year ended December 31,2021.Furthermore,as of the date ofthe prospectus,we are not aware of any action,claim,investigation or penalties being conducted or threatened by any government authorities.However,if we are fined or otherwise penalized by government authorities due to our failure to adequately pay social insurance and housingprovident fund contributions for our employees,our financial condition may be negatively impacted.The M&A Rules and certain other PRC regulations establish complex procedures for some acquisitions of Chinese companies by foreigninvestors,making it more difficult for us to pursue growth through acquisitions in China.The Regulations on Mergers and Acquisitions of Domestic Companies by Foreign Investors,or the M&A Rules,adopted by six PRC regulatoryagencies in August 2006 and amended in 2009,and some other regulations and rules concerning mergers and acquisitions established additionalprocedures and requirements that could make merger and acquisition activities by foreign investors more time consuming and complex,includingrequirements in some instances that the MOC be notified in advance of any change-of-control transaction in which a foreign investor takescontrol of a PRC domestic enterprise.Moreover,the Anti-Monopoly Law requires that the MOC shall be notified in advance of any concentrationof undertaking if certain thresholds are triggered.In addition,the security review rules issued by the MOC that became effective in September2011 specify that mergers and acquisitions by foreign investors that raise“national defense and security”concerns and mergers and acquisitionsthrough which foreign investors may acquire de facto control over domestic enterprises that raise“national security”concerns are subject to strictreview by the MOC,and the rules prohibit any activities attempting to bypass a security review,including by structuring the transaction through aproxy or contractual control arrangement.In the future,we may grow our business by acquiring complementary businesses.Complying with therequirements of the above-mentioned regulations and other relevant rules to complete such transactions could be time-consuming,and anyrequired approval processes,including obtaining approval from the MOC or its local counterparts,may delay or inhibit our ability to completesuch transactions,which could affect our ability to expand our business or maintain our market share.PRC regulations relating to offshore investment activities by PRC residents may limit our PRC subsidiaries ability to increase theirregistered capital or distribute profits to us or otherwise expose us or our PRC resident beneficial owners to liability and penalties underPRC law.SAFE promulgated the Circular on Relevant Issues Relating to Domestic Residents Investment and Financing and Roundtrip Investment throughSpecial Purpose Vehicles,or SAFE Circular 37,in July 2014 that requires PRC residents or entities to register with SAFE or its local branch inconnection with their establishment or control of an offshore entity established for overseas investment or financing.In addition,such PRCresidents or entities must update their SAFE registrations when the offshore special purpose vehicle undergoes material events relating to anychange of basic information(including change of such PRC citizens or residents,name and operation term),increases or decreases in investmentamount,transfers or exchanges of shares,or mergers or divisions.SAFE Circular 37 is issued to replace the Notice on Relevant IssuesConcerning Foreign Exchange Administration for PRC Residents Engaging in Financing and Roundtrip Investments via Overseas SpecialPurpose.Vehicles,or SAFE Circular 75.SAFE promulgated the Notice on Further Simplifying and Improving the Administration of the ForeignExchange Concerning Direct Investment in February 2015,which took effect on June 1,2015.This notice has amended SAFE Circular 37requiring PRC residents or entities to register with qualified banks rather than SAF

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小i机器人(XI)美国IPO-招股书(282 stranice).pdf

2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1935172/000121390022081122/ff12022_xiaoicorp.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1935172/000121390022081122/ff12022_xiaoicorp.htm1/282F-1 1 ff12022_xiaoicorp.htm REGISTRATION STATEMENTAs filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on December 19,2022Registration No.333-UNITED STATESSECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSIONWASHINGTON,D.C.20549_FORM F-1REGISTRATION STATEMENTUNDERTHE SECURITIES ACT OF 1933_XIAO-I CORPORATION(Exact name of Registrant as specified in its charter)_Not Applicable(Translation of Registrants name into English)Cayman Islands 7372 Not Applicable(State or other jurisdiction of incorporation or organization)(Primary Standard IndustrialClassification Code Number)(I.R.S.Employer Identification Number)7th floor,Building 398,No.1555 WestJinshajiang RdShanghai,China 201803Tel: 86 021-39512112(Address,including zip code,and telephone number,including area code,of Registrants principal executive offices)_GKL Corporate/Search,Inc.One Capitol Mall,Suite 660Sacramento,CA 95814Phone:(800)446-5455(Name,address,including zip code,and telephone number,including area code,of agent for service)_Copies to:Charlotte Westfall,Esq.Fred A.Summer,Esq.Squire Patton Boggs(US)LLP 475 Sansome Street,16thFloor San Francisco,California94111 Phone:(415)954-0200 Francis Li,Esq.Squire Patton Boggs 29th Floor,Edinburgh Tower The Landmark,15 Queens Road Central Central,Hong KongPhone: (852)2103 0368 Arila Zhou,Esq.Anna Jinhua Wang,Esq.Robinson&Cole LLP 666 Third Avenue,20th FloorNew York,New York 10017 Phone:(212)451-2900_Approximate date of commencement of proposed sale to the public:as soon as practicable after the effective date of this registration statement.If any of the securities being registered on this Form are to be offered on a delayed or continuousbasis pursuant to Rule 415 under the Securities Act of 1933,check the following box.If this Form is filed to register additional securities for an offering pursuant toRule 462(b)under the Securities Act,check the following box and list the Securities Actregistration statement number of the earlier effective registration statement for the same offering.If this Form is a post-effective amendment filed pursuant to Rule 462(c)under the Securities Act,check the following box and list the Securities Act registration statement number of the earliereffective registration statement for the same offering.If this Form is a post-effective amendment filed pursuant to Rule 462(d)under the Securities Act,check the following box and list the Securities Act registration statement number of the earliereffective registration statement for the same offering.Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405of the Securities Act of 1933.Emerging growth company If an emerging growth company that prepares its financial statements in accordance with U.S.GAAP,indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period forcomplying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 7(a)(2)(B)of the Securities Act.The term“new or revised financial accounting standard”refers to any update issued by theFinancial Accounting Standards Board to its Accounting Standards Codification after April 5,2012.The Registrant hereby amends this Registration Statement on such date or dates as maybe necessary to delay its effective date until the Registrant shall file a furtheramendment which specifically states that this Registration Statement shall thereafterbecome effective in accordance with Section 8(a)of the Securities Act of 1933,asamended,or until the Registration Statement shall become effective on such date asthe Securities and Exchange Commission,acting pursuant to such Section 8(a),maydetermine.2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1935172/000121390022081122/ff12022_xiaoicorp.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1935172/000121390022081122/ff12022_xiaoicorp.htm2/282Table of ContentsThe information in this preliminary prospectus is not complete and may be changed.Xiao-I may not sell these securities until the registration statement filed with theSecurities and Exchange Commission is effective.This preliminary prospectus is notan offer to sell these securities and Xiao-I is not soliciting offers to buy thesesecurities in any jurisdiction where the offer or sale is not permitted.SUBJECT TO COMPLETION PRELIMINARY PROSPECTUS,DATED DECEMBER 19,20226,000,000 American Depositary SharesXIAO-I CORPORATIONRepresenting 2,000,000 Ordinary SharesThis is an initial public offering,or the“offering,”of 6,000,000 American depositary shares,or ADSs(each,an“ADS”,collectively,“ADSs”),each represents one-third of an ordinary share,par value US$0.00005 per share,of Xiao-I Corporation,a holding company incorporated in the CaymanIslands(“Xiao-I”or the“Company”)whose principal place of business is in Shanghai,China,ona firm commitment basis.Prior to this offering,there has been no public market for Xiao-Is ADSs or Ordinary Shares.Xiao-I expects that the initial public offering price will be in the range of$to$per ADS.Itintends to list the ADSs on the Nasdaq Global Market under the symbol“XI.”However,there is noassurance that the offering will be closed and its ADSs will be trading on the Nasdaq Global market.This offering is contingent upon the final approval from Nasdaq for the listing of Xiao-Is ADSs onNasdaq Global Market.Xiao-I will not proceed to consummate this offering if Nasdaq denies itslisting.Neither the United States Securities and Exchange Commission nor any other regulatorybody has approved or disapproved of these securities or passed upon the accuracy oradequacy of this prospectus.Any representation to the contrary is a criminaloffense._Xiao-I is an“emerging growth company”under applicable U.S.federal securities lawsand is eligible for reduced public company reporting requirements.See“RiskFactors”beginning on page 39 for factors you should consider before investing inXiao-Is ADSs._Xiao-I is a holding company incorporated in the Cayman Islands.As a holding company with nomaterial operations of its own,Xiao-I conducts a substantial majority of its operations throughShanghai Xiao-i Robot Technology Co.,Ltd.(“Shanghai Xiao-i”),a variable interest entity(the“VIE”),in the Peoples Republic of China,or“PRC”or“China.”Investors in Xiao-Is ADSsshould be aware that they may never hold equity interests in the VIE,but rather purchasing equityinterests solely in Xiao-I,the Cayman Islands holding company,which does not own any of thebusiness in China conducted by the VIE and the VIEs subsidiaries(“the PRC operatingentities”).The ADSs offered in this offering represent shares of the Cayman Islands holdingcompany instead of shares of the VIE in China.Xiao-Is indirect wholly owned subsidiary,Zhizhen Artificial Intelligent Technology(Shanghai)Co.Ltd.(“Zhizhen Technology”or“WFOE”)entered into a series of contractual arrangements thatestablish the VIE structure(the“VIE Agreements”).The VIE structure is used to provide investorswith exposure to foreign investment in China-based companies where Chinese law prohibits directforeign investment in the operating companies.Xiao-I has evaluated the guidance in FASB ASC 810 anddetermined that Xiao-I is the primary beneficiary of the VIE,for accounting purposes,based uponsuch contractual arrangements.ASC 810 requires a VIE to be consolidated if the company is subjectto a majority of the risk of loss for the VIE or is entitled to receive a majority of the VIEsresidual returns.A VIE is an entity in which a company or its WFOE,through contractualarrangements,is fully and exclusively responsible for the management of the entity,absorbs allrisk of losses of the entity(excluding non-controlling interests),receives the benefits of theentity that could be significant to the entity(excluding non-controlling interests),and has theexclusive right to exercise all voting rights of the entity,and therefore the company or its WFOEis the primary beneficiary of the entity for accounting purposes.Under ASC 810,a reporting entityhas a controlling financial interest in a VIE,and must consolidate that VIE,if the reportingentity has both of the following characteristics:(a)the power to direct the activities of the VIEthat most significantly affect the VIEs economic performance;and(b)the obligation to absorblosses,or the right to receive benefits,that could potentially be significant to the VIE.Throughthe VIE Agreements,the Company is deemed the primary beneficiary of the VIE for accountingpurposes.The VIE has no assets that are collateral for or restricted solely to settle itsobligations.The creditors of the VIE do not have recourse to the Companys general credit.Accordingly,under U.S.GAAP,the results of the PRC operating entities are consolidated in Xiao-Is financial statements.However,investors will not and may never hold equity interests in thePRC operating entities.The VIE Agreements may not be effective in providing control over ShanghaiXiao-i.Uncertainties exist as to Xiao-Is ability to enforce the VIE Agreements,and the VIEAgreements have not been tested in a court of law.The Chinese regulatory authorities could disallowthis VIE structure,which would likely result in a material change in the PRC operating entitiesoperations and the value of Xiao-Is ADSs,including that it could cause the value of suchsecurities to significantly decline or become worthless.See“Prospectus Summary Our History andCorporate Structure”beginning on page 6 of this prospectus for a summary of the contractualarrangements and“Risk Factors Risks Relating to Our Corporate Structure”beginning on page 52of this prospectus for certain risks relating to the contractual arrangements.As of the date of this prospectus,no cash transfer or transfer of other assets by way of dividendsor distributions have occurred among the Company,its subsidiaries,or the PRC operating entities.Xiao-I intends to keep any future earnings to finance the expansion of its business,and it does notanticipate that any cash dividends will be paid,or any funds will be transferred from one entity toanother,in the foreseeable future.As such,Xiao-I has not installed any cash management policiesthat dictate how funds are transferred among the Company,its subsidiaries,or investors,or the PRCoperating entities.For further details,please refer to“Prospectus Summary Consolidation”beginning on page 18.Xiao-I is a holding company with no operations of its own.Xiao-I conducts its operations in Chinaprimarily through the PRC operating entities in China.As a result,although other means areavailable for it to obtain financing at the holding company level,Xiao-Is ability to pay2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1935172/000121390022081122/ff12022_xiaoicorp.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1935172/000121390022081122/ff12022_xiaoicorp.htm3/282dividends and other distributions to its shareholders and to service any debt it may incur maydepend upon dividends and other distributions paid by Xiao-Is PRC subsidiaries,which relies ondividends and other distributions paid by the PRC operating entities pursuant to the VIE Agreements.If any of these entities incurs debt on its own in the future,the instruments governing such debtmay restrict its ability to pay dividends and other distributions to Xiao-I.2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1935172/000121390022081122/ff12022_xiaoicorp.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1935172/000121390022081122/ff12022_xiaoicorp.htm4/282Table of ContentsIn addition,dividends and distributions from Xiao-Is PRC subsidiaries and the VIE are subject toregulations and restrictions on dividends and payment to parties outside of China.Applicable PRClaw permits payment of dividends to Xiao-I by WFOE only out of net income,if any,determined inaccordance with PRC accounting standards and regulations.A PRC company is not permitted todistribute any profits until any losses from prior fiscal years have been offset by general reservefund and profits(if general reserve fund is not enough).Profits retained from prior fiscal yearsmay be distributed together with distributable profits from the current fiscal year.In addition,registered share capital and capital reserve accounts are also restricted from withdrawal in thePRC,up to the amount of net assets held in each operating subsidiary.In contrast,there ispresently no foreign exchange control or restrictions on capital flows into and out of Hong Kong.Hence,Xiao-Is Hong Kong subsidiary is able to transfer cash without any limitation to the CaymanIslands under normal circumstances.As a result of these PRC laws and regulations,the PRC operatingentities and WFOE are restricted in their ability to transfer a portion of their net assets to theCompany.Moreover,the transfer of funds among the PRC operating entities are subject to the Provisions ofthe Supreme Peoples Court on Several Issues Concerning the Application of Law in the Trial ofPrivate Lending Cases(2020 Second Amendment Revision,the“Provisions on Private Lending Cases”),which was implemented on January 1,2021 to regulate the financing activities between naturalpersons,legal persons and unincorporated organizations.As advised by Xiao-Is PRC counsel,Jingtian&Gongcheng,the Provisions on Private Lending Cases does not prohibit using cash generatedfrom one PRC operating entity to fund another affiliated PRC operating entitys operations.Xiao-Ior the PRC operating entities have not been notified of any other restriction which could limit thePRC operating entities ability to transfer cash among each other.In the future,cash proceedsfrom overseas financing activities,including this offering,may be transferred by Xiao-I to itswholly-owned subsidiary AI Plus Holding Limited(“AI Plus”),and then transferred to AI Plusswholly-owned subsidiary Xiao-i Technology Limited(Xiao-i Technology”),and then transferred toWFOE via capital contribution or shareholder loans,as the case may be.Cash proceeds may flow toShanghai Xiao-i from WFOE pursuant to certain contractual arrangements between WFOE and ShanghaiXiao-i as permitted by the applicable PRC regulations.Under Cayman Islands law,a Cayman Islands company may pay a dividend on its shares out of eitherprofit or share premium amount,provided that in no circumstances may a dividend be paid out ofshare premium if this would result in the company being unable to pay its debts due in the ordinarycourse of business.If Xiao-I determines to pay dividends on any of its Ordinary Shares in thefuture,as a holding company,Xiao-I will rely on payments made from Shanghai Xiao-i to WFOE,pursuant to the VIE Agreements,and the distribution of such payments to Xiao-i Technology fromWFOE,and then to AI Plus from Xiao-i Technology,and then to Xiao-I from AI Plus as dividends,unless Xiao-I receives proceeds from future offerings.Xiao-I does not expect to pay dividends inthe foreseeable future.If,however,it declares dividends on its Ordinary Shares,the depositarywill pay you the cash dividends and other distributions it receives on Xiao-Is Ordinary Sharesafter deducting its fees and expenses in accordance with the terms set forth in the depositagreement.See“Prospectus Summary Transfers of Cash to and from the VIE”on page 26 and“RiskFactors Risks Relating to Doing Business in China There are significant uncertainties underthe EIT Law relating to the withholding tax liabilities of our PRC subsidiary,and dividends payableby our PRC subsidiary to our offshore subsidiaries may not qualify to enjoy certain treatybenefits”on page 66 of this prospectus.Additionally,Xiao-I is subject to certain legal and operational risks associated with theoperations of the PRC operating entities in China.PRC laws and regulations governing the PRCoperating entities current business operations are sometimes vague and uncertain,and therefore,these risks may result in a material change in the PRC operating entities operations,significantdepreciation of the value of Xiao-Is ADSs,or a complete hindrance of its ability to offer orcontinue to offer its securities to investors.Recently,the PRC government initiated a series ofregulatory actions and statements to regulate business operations in China with little advancenotice,including cracking down on illegal activities in the securities market,enhancingsupervision over China-based companies listed overseas using a variable interest entity structure,adopting new measures to extend the scope of cybersecurity reviews and expanding the efforts inanti-monopoly enforcement.It is highly uncertain what the potential impact such modified or newlaws and regulations will have on the daily business operations of Xiao-Is subsidiaries and thePRC operating entities,Xiao-Is ability to accept foreign investments,and Xiao-Is listing on aU.S.stock exchange.The Standing Committee of the National Peoples Congress(the“SCNPC”)orPRC regulatory authorities may in the future promulgate laws,regulations,or implement rules thatrequire the Company,its subsidiaries,or the PRC operating entities to obtain regulatory approvalfrom Chinese authorities before listing in the U.S.In other words,although the Company iscurrently not required to obtain permission from any of the PRC federal or local government toobtain such permission and has not received any denial to list on the U.S.exchange,its operationscould be adversely affected,directly or indirectly;its ability to offer,or continue to offer,securities to investors would be potentially hindered and the value of its securities mightsignificantly decline or be worthless,by existing or future laws and regulations relating to itsbusiness or industry or by intervene or interruption by PRC governmental authorities,if theCompany,or its subsidiaries or the PRC operating entities(i)do not receive or maintain suchpermissions or approvals,(ii)inadvertently conclude that such permissions or approvals are notrequired,(iii)applicable laws,regulations,or interpretations change and the Company,or itssubsidiaries or the PRC operating entities are required to obtain such permissions or approvals inthe future,or(iv)any intervention or interruption by PRC governmental with little advance notice.The PRC operating entities generated approximately 2.3%and 11.7%of their revenues from Hong Kongin fiscal year 2021 and 2020,respectively.Hong Kong is a special administrative region of the PRCand the basic policies of the PRC regarding Hong Kong are reflected in the Basic Law,namely,HongKongs constitutional document,which provides Hong Kong with a high degree of autonomy andexecutive,legislative and independent judicial powers,including that of final adjudication underthe principle of“one country,two systems”.Xiao-I cannot assure you that there will not be anychanges in the economic,political and legal environment in Hong Kong.Xiao-I may be subject touncertainty about any future actions of the PRC government and is possible that most of the legaland operational risks associated with operating in the PRC may also apply to the PRC operatingentities operations in Hong Kong in the future.The PRC government may intervene or influence thePRC operating entities current and future operations in Hong Kong at any time and exert moreinfluence over the manner in which the PRC operating entities must conduct their businessactivities.Such government actions,if and when they occur,could result in a material change intheir operations in Hong Kong.In Hong Kong,the collection of personal data,their use and disclosure,retention and granting ofaccess to and correction of personal data is governed by the Personal Data(Privacy)Ordinance(Chapter 486 of the Laws of Hong Kong).See“Regulations in Hong Kong Personal data law in HongKong”for further details.The competition law in Hong Kong is primarily governed by theCompetition Ordinance(Chapter 619 of the Laws of Hong Kong),which prohibits three principal typesof anti-competitive conducts,namely(a)anti-competitive agreements or practices;(b)abuse ofmarket power;and(c)merger control of arrangements that could substantially reduce the level ofcompetition in telecommunication industry.The Merger Rule in the Competition Ordinance prohibits2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1935172/000121390022081122/ff12022_xiaoicorp.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1935172/000121390022081122/ff12022_xiaoicorp.htm5/282undertakings from directly or indirectly carrying out a merger that has,or is likely to have,theeffect of substantially reduce the level of competition in Hong Kong.This rule is only applicableto telecommunication carrier licensees.There is no general merger control regime in Hong Kong.See“Regulations in Hong Kong Competition law in Hong Kong”for further details.2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1935172/000121390022081122/ff12022_xiaoicorp.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1935172/000121390022081122/ff12022_xiaoicorp.htm6/282Table of ContentsAs of the date of this prospectus,the PRC operating entities business operations in Hong Kong,which are relatively insignificant as compared to their business as a whole,are only required tocomply with the Hong Kong laws and regulations.The PRC government has recently initiated a seriesof regulatory actions and statements to regulate business operations in mainland China with littleadvance notice.Xiao-I does not expect such statements by the PRC government would have any specificimpact on the PRC operating entities business operations in Hong Kong.If there is any change inpolitical arrangements between mainland China and Hong Kong,it would affect the businessenvironment in Hong Kong generally.The PRC operating entities operations in China are governed by PRC laws and regulations.Xiao-IsPRC counsel,Jingtian&Gongcheng,has advised Xiao-I that,as of the date of this prospectus,basedon their understanding of the current PRC laws,regulations and rules,Xiao-I,its subsidiaries,thePRC operating entities have received all requisite permissions and approvals from the PRC governmentauthorities for their business operations currently conducted in China.Neither has Xiao-I nor its subsidiaries,nor the PRC operating entities received any denial ofpermissions for their business operations currently conducted in China.These permissions andapprovals include(without limitation)License for Value-added Telecommunications Services,BusinessLicense,Record Registration Form for Foreign Trade Business Operators,Customs Declaration EntityRegistration Certificate.Xiao-Is PRC counsel,Jingtian&Gongcheng,has advised Xiao-I that,asof the date of this prospectus,based on their understanding of the current PRC laws,regulationsand rules,Xiao-I,its subsidiaries,the PRC operating entities are currently not required to obtainpermission from any of the PRC authorities to issue ADSs or Ordinary Shares to foreign investors.However,Xiao-I is subject to the risks of uncertainty of any future actions of the PRC governmentin this regard including the risk that Xiao-I inadvertently concludes that the permissions orapprovals discussed here are not required,that applicable laws,regulations or interpretationschange such that Xiao-I is required to obtain approvals in the future,or that the PRC governmentcould disallow Xiao-Is holding company structure,which would likely result in a material changein its operations,including its ability to continue its existing holding company structure,carryon its current business,accept foreign investments,and offer or continue to offer securities toits investors.These adverse actions could cause the value of Xiao-Is ADSs to significantlydecline or become worthless.Xiao-I may also be subject to penalties and sanctions imposed by thePRC regulatory agencies,including the CSRC,if it fails to comply with such rules and regulations,which would likely adversely affect the ability of Xiao-Is securities to be listed on a U.S.exchange,which would likely cause the value of Xiao-Is securities to significantly decline orbecome worthless.Permission from Cyberspace Administration of China.Shanghai Xiao-i has applied for a cybersecurityreview organized by the China Cybersecurity Review Technology and Certification Center(the“Center”),which is authorized by the Cybersecurity Review Office of the Cyberspace Administrationof China(the“CAC”)to accept public consultation and cybersecurity review submissions,pursuantto the Cybersecurity Review Measures,which became effective on February 15,2022.On August 25,2022,Shanghai Xiao-i received a written notice from the Cybersecurity Review Office,pursuant towhich cybersecurity review is not required for the offering.PRC Limitation on Overseas Listing and Share Issuances.The Regulations on Mergers and Acquisitionsof Domestic Companies by Foreign Investors,or the M&A Rules,adopted by six PRC regulatory agenciesin 2006 and amended in 2009,requires an overseas special purpose vehicle formed for listingpurposes through acquisitions of PRC domestic companies and controlled by PRC companies orindividuals to obtain the approval of the CSRC prior to the listing and trading of such specialpurpose vehicles securities on an overseas stock exchange.On December 24,2021,the CSRC released the Administrative Provisions of the State Council Regardingthe Overseas Issuance and Listing of Securities by Domestic Enterprises(Draft for Comments)(the“Draft Administrative Provisions”)and the Measures for the Overseas Issuance of Securities andListing Record-Filings by Domestic Enterprises(Draft for Comments)(the“Draft Filing Measures,”collectively with the Draft Administrative Provisions,the“Draft Rules Regarding OverseasListing”),both of which have a comment period that expired on January 23,2022.As of the date ofthis prospectus,the Draft Rules Regarding Overseas Listing have not been formally adopted orreleased.The Draft Rules Regarding Overseas Listing lay out the filing regulation arrangement forboth direct and indirect overseas listing,and clarify the determination criteria for indirectoverseas listing in overseas markets.Among other things,if a domestic enterprise intends toindirectly offer and list securities in an overseas market,the record-filing obligation is with amajor operating entity incorporated in the PRC and such filing obligation shall be completed withinthree working days after the overseas listing application is submitted.The required filingmaterials for an initial public offering and listing shall include but not limited to:regulatoryopinions,record-filing,approval and other documents issued by competent regulatory authorities ofrelevant industries(if applicable);and security assessment opinion issued by relevant regulatoryauthorities(if applicable).If the CSRC or other regulatory agencies later promulgate new rules or explanations requiring thatXiao-I obtain their approvals for this offering and any follow-on offerings,Xiao-I may be unable toobtain such approvals and it may face sanctions by the CSRC or other PRC regulatory agencies forfailure to seek such approvals which could significantly limit or completely hinder its ability tooffer or continue to offer securities to its investors and the securities currently being offeredmay substantially decline in value and be worthless.Both Xiao-I and Xiao-Is PRC counsel,Jingtian&Gongcheng believe the CSRCs approval is notrequired for the offering and trading of Xiao-Is ADSs on Nasdaq in the context of this offering,given that:(i)WFOE was incorporated as a wholly foreign-owned enterprise by means of directinvestment rather than by merger or acquisition of equity interest or assets of a PRC domesticcompany owned by PRC companies or individuals as defined under the M&A Rules that are Xiao-Isbeneficial owners;(ii)the CSRC currently has not issued any definitive rule or interpretationconcerning whether offerings like this offering are subject to the M&A Rules;and(iii)no provisionin the M&A Rules clearly classifies contractual arrangements as a type of transaction subject to theM&A Rules.As of the date of this prospectus,no relevant laws or regulations in the PRC explicitlyrequire the Company,its subsidiaries or the PRC operating entities to seek approval from the CSRCor any other PRC governmental authorities for this offering,nor has the Company,any of itssubsidiaries or the PRC operating entities received any inquiry,notice,warning or sanctionsregarding Xiao-Is planned offering from the CSRC or any other PRC governmental authorities.However,since these statements and regulatory actions by the PRC government are newly published andofficial guidance and related implementation rules have not been issued,there remain someuncertainties as to how the rules will be interpreted or implemented in the context of an overseasoffering and the potential impact such modified or new laws and regulations will have on the dailybusiness operation of the PRC operating entities.Xiao-I and its PRC counsel,Jingtian&Gongchengcannot assure you that relevant PRC government agencies,including the CSRC,would reach the sameconclusion as they do.As of the date hereof,Xiao-I,its subsidiaries and the PRC operatingentities have not received any inquiries,notices,warnings,sanctions,denials,or regulatoryobjections from the CSRC,CAC,nor any other PRC regulatory authority.The PRC regulatoryauthorities may in the future promulgate laws,regulations or implementing rules that requires theCompany,its subsidiaries or the PRC operating entities to obtain regulatory approval from Chinese2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1935172/000121390022081122/ff12022_xiaoicorp.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1935172/000121390022081122/ff12022_xiaoicorp.htm7/282authorities before listing in the U.S.If it is determined that CSRC approval is required for thisoffering,Xiao-I may face sanctions by the CSRC or other PRC regulatory agencies for failure to seekCSRC approval for this offering.2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1935172/000121390022081122/ff12022_xiaoicorp.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1935172/000121390022081122/ff12022_xiaoicorp.htm8/282Table of ContentsFor more detailed information,see“Risk Factors Risks Relating to Doing Business in China Draft rules for China-based companies seeking for securities offerings in foreign stock markets wasreleased by the CSRC.While such rules have not yet come into effect,the Chinese government mayexert more oversight and control over overseas public offerings conducted by China-based issuers,which could significantly limit or completely hinder Xiao-Is ability to offer or continue to offerXiao-Is ADSs to investors and could cause the value of its ADSs to significantly decline or becomeworthless”on page 64 of this prospectus.Pursuant to the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act(the“HFCAA”),if the Public CompanyAccounting Oversight Board(the“PCAOB”),is unable to inspect an issuers auditors for threeconsecutive years,the issuers securities are prohibited to trade on a U.S.stock exchange.ThePCAOB issued a Determination Report on December 16,2021(the“Determination Report”)which foundthat the PCAOB is unable to inspect or investigate completely registered public accounting firmsheadquartered in:(1)mainland China of the Peoples Republic of China because of a position takenby one or more authorities in mainland China;and(2)Hong Kong,a Special Administrative Region anddependency of the PRC,because of a position taken by one or more authorities in Hong Kong.Furthermore,the Determination Report identified the specific registered public accounting firmswhich are subject to these determinations(“PCAOB Identified Firms”).On June 22,2021,United States Senate passed the Accelerating Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act(the“AHFCAA”),which,if enacted,would decrease the number of“non-inspection years”fromthree years to two years,and thus,would reduce the time before Xiao-Is securities may beprohibited from trading or delisted if the PCAOB determines that it cannot inspect or investigatecompletely Xiao-Is auditor.Xiao-Is current auditor,Marcum Asia CPAs LLP(“Marcum Asia”),the independent registered publicaccounting firm that issues the audit report included elsewhere in this prospectus,as an auditor ofcompanies that are traded publicly in the United States and a firm registered with the PCAOB,issubject to laws in the U.S.pursuant to which the PCAOB conducts regular inspections to assess itscompliance with the applicable professional standards.Marcum Asia,whose audit report is includedin this prospectus,is headquartered in New York,New York,and,as of the date of this prospectus,was not included in the list of PCAOB Identified Firms in the Determination Report.On August 26,2022,the PCAOB announced that it had signed a Statement of Protocol(the“Protocol”)with the China Securities Regulatory Commission(the“CSRC”)and the Ministry ofFinance(“MOF”)of the Peoples Republic of China,governing inspections and investigations ofaudit firms based in mainland China and Hong Kong.Pursuant to the Protocol,the PCAOB conductedinspections on select registered public accounting firms subject to the Determination Report in HongKong between September and November 2022.On December 15,2022,the PCAOB board announced that it has completed the inspections,determinedthat it had complete access to inspect or investigate completely registered public accounting firmsheadquartered in mainland China and Hong Kong,and voted to vacate the Determination Report.Notwithstanding the foregoing,Xiao-Is ability to retain an auditor subject to the PCAOBinspection and investigation,including but not limited to inspection of the audit working papersrelated to Xiao-I,may depend on the relevant positions of U.S.and Chinese regulators.MarcumAsias audit working papers related to Xiao-I are located in China.With respect to audits ofcompanies with operations in China,such as the Company,there are uncertainties about the abilityof its auditor to fully cooperate with a request by the PCAOB for audit working papers in Chinawithout the approval of Chinese authorities.If the PCAOB is unable to inspect or investigatecompletely the Companys auditor because of a position taken by an authority in a foreignjurisdiction,or the PCAOB re-evaluates its determination as a result of any obstruction with theimplementation of the Statement of Protocol,then such lack of inspection or re-evaluation couldcause trading in the Companys securities to be prohibited under the HFCAA,and ultimately resultin a determination by a securities exchange to delist the Companys securities.Accordingly,theHFCAA calls for additional and more stringent criteria to be applied to emerging market companiesupon assessing the qualification of their auditors,especially the non-U.S.auditors who are notinspected by the PCAOB.These developments could add uncertainties to Xiao-Is offering.See“Risk Factors Risks Relating to Doing Business in China The newly enacted Holding ForeignCompanies Accountable Act and the Accelerating Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act passed bythe U.S.Senate,all call for additional and more stringent criteria to be applied to emergingmarket companies upon assessing the qualification of their auditors,especially the non-U.S.auditors who are not inspected by the PCAOB.These developments could add uncertainties to ouroffering and listing on the Nasdaq Global Market,and Nasdaq may determine to delist our securitiesif the PCAOB determines that it cannot inspect or fully investigate our auditor”on page 60 of thisprospectus.Investing in Xiao-Is ADSs involves a high degree of risk.See“Risk Factors”beginning on page 39 of this prospectus.Per ADS TotalInitial public offering price US$_ US$_Underwriting discounts and commissions(7%)for sales toinvestors introduced by the underwriter(1)US$_ US$_Proceeds,before expenses,to Xiao-I(2)US$_ US$_(1)See“Underwriting”beginning on page 190 for additional disclosure regarding underwritingcompensation payable by Xiao-I.(2)The total estimated expenses related to this offering are set forth in the section entitled“Underwriting Discounts,Commissions and Expenses.”The underwriters are selling 6,000,000 ADSs(or 6,900,000 ADSs if the underwriters exercisetheir option to purchase additional ADSs in full)in this Offering on a firm commitment basis.Xiao-I has granted the underwriters an option to purchase up to an additional 900,000 ADSs within45 days from the date this prospectus at the initial public offering price,less the underwritingdiscounts and commissions.The underwriters expect to deliver the ADSs against payment in U.S.dollars to the purchasers on orabout,2022.Guotai Junan InternationalProspectus dated,2022 2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1935172/000121390022081122/ff12022_xiaoicorp.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1935172/000121390022081122/ff12022_xiaoicorp.htm9/282Table of ContentsTABLE OF CONTENTS PagePROSPECTUS SUMMARY 4THE OFFERING 35RISK FACTORS 39CAUTIONARY STATEMENT REGARDING FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS 83USE OF PROCEEDS 84DIVIDEND POLICY 85CAPITALIZATION 86EXCHANGE RATE INFORMATION 87DILUTION 88CORPORATE HISTORY AND STRUCTURE 90MANAGEMENTS DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OFOPERATIONS 93INDUSTRY OVERVIEW 108BUSINESS 117PRC REGULATION 132MANAGEMENT 145BOARD OF DIRECTORS 147EXECUTIVE COMPENSATION 151PRINCIPAL SHAREHOLDERS 153RELATED PARTY TRANSACTIONS 156DESCRIPTION OF SHARE CAPITAL 159DESCRIPTION OF AMERICAN DEPOSITARY SHARES 169ORDINARY SHARES AND ADSs ELIGIBLE FOR FUTURE SALE 180TAXATION 182ENFORCEABILITY OF CIVIL LIABILITIES 188UNDERWRITING 190EXPENSES RELATING TO THIS OFFERING 199LEGAL MATTERS 200EXPERTS 200WHERE YOU CAN FIND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION 200INDEX TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS F-1You should rely only on the information contained in this prospectus or in anyrelated free-writing prospectus.Xiao-I has not authorized anyone to provide you withinformation different from that contained in this prospectus or in any related free-writing prospectus.Xiao-I is offering to sell,and seeking offers to buy,the ADSsonly in jurisdictions where offers and sales are permitted.The information containedin this prospectus is current only as of the date of this prospectus,regardless ofthe time of delivery of this prospectus or of any sale of the ADSs.Xiao-I has nottaken any action to permit a public offering of the ADSs outside the United States orto permit the possession or distribution of this prospectus or any filed free writingprospectus outside the United States.Persons outside the United States who come intopossession of this prospectus or any filed free writing prospectus must informthemselves about and observe any restrictions relating to the offering of the ADSsand the distribution of this prospectus or any filed free writing prospectus outsidethe United States.This prospectus includes statistical and other industry and market data that Xiao-Iobtained from industry publications and research,surveys and studies conducted bythird parties.Industry publications and third-party research,surveys and studiesgenerally indicate that their information has been obtained from sources believed tobe reliable.While Xiao-I believes these industry publications and third-partyresearch,surveys and studies are reliable,you are cautioned not to give undueweight to this information.Until,2022(the 25th day after the date of this prospectus),alldealers that buy,sell or trade ADSs,whether or not participating in thisoffering,may be required to deliver a prospectus.This is in addition tothe obligation of dealers to deliver a prospectus when acting asunderwriters and with respect to their unsold allotments or subscriptions.i2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1935172/000121390022081122/ff12022_xiaoicorp.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1935172/000121390022081122/ff12022_xiaoicorp.htm10/282Table of ContentsABOUT THIS PROSPECTUSXiao-I and the underwriters have not authorized anyone to provide any information orto make any representations other than those contained in this prospectus or in anyfree writing prospectuses prepared by Xiao-I or on its behalf or to which Xiao-I hasreferred you.Xiao-I takes no responsibility for,and can provide no assurance as tothe reliability of,any other information that others may give you.This prospectusis an offer to sell only the ADSs offered hereby,but only under circumstances and injurisdictions where it is lawful to do so.Xiao-I is not making an offer to sellthese securities in any jurisdiction where the offer or sale is not permitted orwhere the person making the offer or sale is not qualified to do so or to any personto whom it is not permitted to make such offer or sale.For the avoidance of doubt,no offer or invitation to subscribe for ADSs is made to the public in the CaymanIslands.The information contained in this prospectus is current only as of the dateon the front cover of the prospectus.Xiao-Is business,financial condition,results of operations and prospects may have changed since that date.Conventions that apply to this ProspectusUnless otherwise indicated or the context requires otherwise,the reference in thisprospectus to:“Xiao-I”or the“Company”is to Xiao-I Corporation,an exempted companywith limited liability incorporated under the laws of Cayman Islands;“AI Plus”is to AI Plus Holding Limited,organized under the law ofBritish Virgin Islands,as Xiao-Is intermediate holding company;“Xiao-i Technology”is to Xiao-i Technology Limited,organized under thelaw of Hong Kong,which is wholly owned by AI Plus;“WFOE”is to Zhizhen Artificial Technology(Shanghai)Company Limited(“Zhizhen Technology”),a limited liability company established andexisting under the laws of the PRC,which is wholly owned by Xiao-iTechnology;“Shanghai Xiao-i”or the“VIE”is to Shanghai Xiao-i Robot TechnologyCompany Limited,a company limited by shares established and existing underthe laws of the PRC;“the PRC operating entities”refers to the VIE,Shanghai Xiao-i,and itssubsidiaries;“Memorandum and Articles of Association”means the amended and restatedmemorandum of association(“Memorandum”)and the amended and restatedarticles of association(“Articles of Association”)of Xiao-I;“China”or the“PRC”are to the Peoples Republic of China,includingthe special administrative regions of Hong Kong and Macau,and excludingTaiwan for the purposes of this prospectus only;the term“Chinese”has acorrelative meaning for the purpose of this prospectus;“mainland China”,“mainland of PRC”or“mainland PRC”are to themainland China of the PRC,excluding Taiwan,the special administrativeregions of Hong Kong and Macau for the purposes of this prospectus only;theterm“mainland Chinese”has a correlative meaning for the purpose of thisprospectus;“PRC government”,“PRC regulatory authorities”,“PRC authorities”,“PRC governmental authorities”,“Chinese government”,“Chineseauthorities”or“Chinese governmental authorities”is to the government ofmainland China for the purposes of this prospectus only;and the similarwordings have a correlative meaning for the purpose of this prospectus;“PRC laws and regulations”,“PRC laws”,“laws of PRC”,“Chinese lawsand regulations”or“Chinese laws”are to the laws and regulations ofmainland China;and the similar wordings have a correlative meaning for thepurpose of this prospectus;“Ordinary Shares”are to the ordinary shares of the Company,par valueUS$0.00005 per share;“$,”“U.S.$,”“U.S.dollars,”“dollars”and“USD”are toU.S.dollars;“RMB”and“”are to Renminbi;12023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1935172/000121390022081122/ff12022_xiaoicorp.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1935172/000121390022081122/ff12022_xiaoicorp.htm11/282Table of Contents“Companies Act”is to the Companies Act(As Revised),Cap.22 of theCayman Islands.“ADSs”refer to Xiao-Is American depositary shares,each of whichrepresents one-third of an Ordinary Share.The PRC operating entities business is conducted in the PRC using RMB,the currencyof China.Xiao-Is consolidated financial statements are presented in United Statesdollars.In this prospectus,Xiao-I refers to assets,obligations,commitments,andliabilities in its consolidated financial statements in United States dollars.Thesedollar references are based on the exchange rate of RMB to United States dollars,determined as of a specific date or for a specific period.Changes in the exchangerate will affect the amount of Xiao-Is obligations and the value of its assets interms of United States dollars which may result in an increase or decrease in theamount of Xiao-Is obligations(expressed in dollars)and the value of its assets,including accounts receivable(expressed in dollars).22023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1935172/000121390022081122/ff12022_xiaoicorp.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1935172/000121390022081122/ff12022_xiaoicorp.htm12/282Table of ContentsPRESENTATION OF FINANCIAL INFORMATIONThe consolidated financial statements included in this prospectus have been preparedin accordance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States ofAmerica,or U.S.GAAP.The reporting currency is United States dollar.Unlessotherwise indicated,all monetary amounts in this prospectus are in U.S.dollars.This prospectus contains translations of certain foreign currency amounts intoU.S.dollars for the convenience of the reader.Unless otherwise stated,alltranslations from Renminbi to U.S.dollars were made at RMB6.3726 to$1.00 onDecember 30,2021,representing the noon buying rate in The City of New York forcable transfers of RMB as certified for customs purposes by the Federal ReserveBoard.Xiao-I makes no representation that the Renminbi or U.S.dollar amountsreferred to in this prospectus could have been or could be converted intoU.S.dollars or Renminbi,as the case may be,at any particular rate or at all.OnJune 1,2022,the noon buying rate in New York for cable transfers payable inRenminbi was RMB6.6858 to$1.00.Xiao-I has made rounding adjustments to some of thefigures included in this prospectus.Accordingly,numerical figures shown as totalsin some tables may not be an arithmetic aggregation of the figures that precededthem.32023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1935172/000121390022081122/ff12022_xiaoicorp.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1935172/000121390022081122/ff12022_xiaoicorp.htm13/282Table of ContentsPROSPECTUS SUMMARYThis summary highlights information contained elsewhere in this prospectus.Thissummary does not contain all the information you should consider before decidingwhether to buy Xiao-Is ADSs.You should read this entire prospectus carefully,including“Risk Factors,”“Business,”“Managements Discussion and Analysis ofFinancial Condition and Results of Operations”and Xiao-Is consolidated financialstatements,including the notes thereto,before making an investment decision.Thisprospectus contains information from an industry report commissioned by Xiao-I andprepared by Frost&Sullivan,an independent research firm,to provide informationregarding the PRC operating entities industry and their market position in China.Investors should note that Xiao-I,the ultimate Cayman Islands holdingcompany,does not own any substantive operations in the PRC and thebusinesses in the PRC described in this prospectus are operated throughthe PRC operating entities in China.Xiao-Is MissionXiao-Is mission is to leverage Shanghai Xiao-is advanced core artificialintelligence technology to make the world a better place.OverviewXiao-I is a holding company incorporated in the Cayman Islands.As a holdingcompany with no material operations of its own,Xiao-I conducts a substantialmajority of its operations through Shanghai Xiao-i,the VIE,in the PRC.Investorsin Xiao-Is ADSs or Ordinary Shares should be aware that they may never holdequity interests in the VIE,but rather purchasing equity interests solely in Xiao-I,the Cayman Islands holding company,which does not own any of the businesses inChina conducted by the PRC operating entities.The ADSs offered in this offeringrepresent shares of the Cayman Islands holding company instead of shares of the VIEin China.Shanghai Yingsi Software Technology Co.,Ltd.(“Incesoft”)was founded in 2001.Incesoft established the Xiaoi robot brand(Chinese:小i机器人)and developed AItechnology used to support its consumer-to-consumer business model.In 2009,Incesoft transformed its business model from consumer-to-consumer to business-to-business.At the same time,founders of Incesoft founded Shanghai Xiao-i,the VIE,which acquired the Xiaoi robot brand and Incesofts core AI technology.Followingthe acquisition,Incesoft was dissolved by de-registering with local companyregistrar in accordance with PRC law in 2012.Since 2009,Shanghai Xiao-i hasbecome a leading artificial intelligence(“AI”)company by building on its widetechnology commercialization,brand recognition and culture of innovation in China.Milestone Accomplishments over 20 Years History42023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1935172/000121390022081122/ff12022_xiaoicorp.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1935172/000121390022081122/ff12022_xiaoicorp.htm14/282Table of ContentsSince its founding in 2001,Shanghai Xiao-i has developed a portfolio of cognitiveintelligence technologies for businesses based on its natural language processingand AI implementation.Leveraging its cutting-edge technologies,dedicatedservices,and long-standing customer base,it has become a leading customer servicesolution company in China according to Frost&Sullivan.It focuses on thedevelopment and promotion of cognitive intelligence technology and products withnatural language processing as the core,and it uses cognitive intelligenceproducts and services to enable and promote industrial digitization and intelligentupgrading and transformation.Shanghai Xiao-i is a leading cognitive intelligence enterprise in China,integrating parts of perceptive intelligence like natural language processing andcomputer vision.It offers a wide range of business services in AI,coveringnatural language processing,computer vision,machine learning and cloud computing.It has multi-field data resources and multiple industry standards,a cutting-edgetalent team training system and strong experience in resource integration.Itprimarily provides smart city,software business and architectural design AIservices to its customers.Shanghai Xiao-i has comprehensive business lines covering fundamental techplatform,conversation bot,cloud services,industry solutions and roboticssolutions.Shanghai Xiao-is cognitive intelligence artificial intelligence(“CIAI”)platform products and services are marketed and sold primarily to customers in thefollowing industries:(1)Contact Center,(2)Finance,(3)Urban Public Service,(4)Construction,(5)Metaverse,(6)Manufacturing and(7)Smart Healthcare.52023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1935172/000121390022081122/ff12022_xiaoicorp.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1935172/000121390022081122/ff12022_xiaoicorp.htm15/282Table of ContentsXiao-Is History and Corporate StructureXiao-I was incorporated in the Cayman Islands on August 13,2018,with limitedliability under the Companies Act.Upon incorporation,the authorized share capitalof the Company was US$50,000 divided into 1,000,000,000 shares,par value ofUS$0.00005 each,comprising of 1,000,000,000 Ordinary Shares of a par value ofUS$0.00005 each.The Company is a holding company.On August 30,2018,Xiao-I established its wholly-owned subsidiary AI Plus,underthe law of British Virgin Islands,as its intermediate holding company,which thenestablished its wholly-owned subsidiary,Xiao-i Technology under the law ofHong Kong,which in turn established a wholly-owned PRC subsidiary,ZhizhenTechnology or WFOE,on March 29,2019.Subsequently,Xiao-I,through WFOE,enteredinto a series of contractual arrangements with Shanghai Xiao-i and its shareholderswhereby Xiao-I was established as the primary beneficiary of Shanghai Xiao-i foraccounting purposes.Xiao-I has recognized the net assets of Shanghai Xiao-i athistorical cost with no change in basis in the consolidated financial statementsupon the completion of this reorganization.As of the date of this prospectus,Al Plus,Xiao-i Technology and ZhizhenTechnology do not have any substantive business operations.As a result of Xiao-Is indirect ownership in Zhizhen Technology and the variable interest entitycontractual arrangements,Xiao-I is regarded as the primary beneficiary of the VIEfor accounting purposes.Xiao-I treats the PRC entities as its consolidatedaffiliated entities under U.S.GAAP,and have consolidated the financial results ofthese entities in Xiao-Is consolidated financial statements in accordance withU.S.GAAP.For more details and risks related to the variable interest entitystructure,please see“Risk Factors Risks Relating to Our Corporate Structure”on page 52 of this prospectus.The following diagram illustrates the corporate legal structure of Xiao-I as of thedate of this prospectus.62023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1935172/000121390022081122/ff12022_xiaoicorp.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1935172/000121390022081122/ff12022_xiaoicorp.htm16/282Table of ContentsThe following diagram illustrates the ownership of the VIE,Shanghai Xiao-i,as ofthe date of this prospectus.72023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1935172/000121390022081122/ff12022_xiaoicorp.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1935172/000121390022081122/ff12022_xiaoicorp.htm17/282Table of ContentsThe VIE AgreementsThe PRC government regulates the telecommunications and internet industry,including software industry,through strict business licensing requirements andother government regulations.These laws and regulations also include limitationson foreign ownership of PRC companies that engage in software business.Xiao-I,AIPlus and Zhizhen Technology,are considered as foreign invested enterprises.Tocomply with these regulations,the Company conducts the majority of its activitiesin PRC through the PRC operating entities.Uncertainties exist as to the Companysability to enforce the VIE Agreements,and the VIE Agreements have not been testedin a court of law.Zhizhen Technology has entered into the following contractual arrangements withShanghai Xiao-i and 61 of its shareholders,whom together hold 100%equity interestin Shanghai Xiao-i,that enable the Company to(i)have power to direct theactivities that most significantly affect the performance of Shanghai Xiao-i andits subsidiaries,and(ii)receive the benefits of Shanghai Xiao-i and itssubsidiaries that could be significant to Shanghai Xiao-i and its subsidiaries.TheCompany,through its indirect wholly owned subsidiary,Zhizhen Technology,is fullyand exclusively responsible for the management of Shanghai Xiao-i,absorbs all riskof losses of Shanghai Xiao-i(excluding non-controlling interests)and has theexclusive right to exercise all voting rights of Shanghai Xiao-is shareholders.In exchange,Shanghai Xiao-i pays service fees to Zhizhen Technology.The servicefees shall consist of 100%of the profit before tax of Shanghai Xiao-i,after thededuction of all costs,expenses,taxes and other fee required under PRC laws andregulations.Shanghai Xiao-i agrees not to accept the same or any similar servicesprovided by any third party and shall not establish cooperation relationshipssimilar to that formed by the Exclusive Business Cooperation Agreement with anythird party,except with the prior written consent of Zhizhen Technology.Therefore,the Company,through its wholly owned subsidiaries AI Plus and ZhizhenTechnology,has been determined to be the primary beneficiary of Shanghai Xiao-iand the VIEs subsidiaries for accounting purposes and has consolidated ShanghaiXiao-is and its subsidiaries assets,liabilities,results of operations,andcash flows in the accompanying consolidated financial statements.Exclusive Call Option AgreementPursuant to the Exclusive Call Option Agreement signed on March 29,2019 by andamong Zhizhen Technology,Shanghai Xiao-i and its shareholders,the shareholdersirrevocably granted Zhizhen Technology or any third party designated by ZhizhenTechnology an option to purchase all or part of their equity interests in ShanghaiXiao-i at any time at a price determined at Zhizhen Technologys discretion.According to the Exclusive Call Option Agreement,the purchase price to be paid bythe Company to each shareholder of Shanghai Xiao-i will be the minimum pricepermitted by applicable PRC Law at the time when such share transfer occurs.Without Zhizhen Technologys prior written consent,the shareholders and ShanghaiXiao-i agreed not to,among other things:set encumbrance on,transfer all or partof,or dispose of the equity interests;amend the articles of association ofShanghai Xiao-i;change the registered capital of Shanghai Xiao-i or holdingstructure;change Shanghai Xiao-is business activities;sell,assign,mortgage ordispose of any legal or beneficial rights to or in any of Shanghai Xiao-isassets,business,or revenue;incur,assume or guarantee any debts;enter into anymaterial contract;extend any loan or credit to any party,or provide any guaranteeor assume any obligation of any party;merge or consolidate with any third party oracquire or invest in any third party;or distribute dividends.The shareholders andShanghai Xiao-i agreed to manage business and handle financial and commercialaffairs prudently and in accordance with relevant laws and codes of practice.Thisagreement will continue with full force and effect until the earlier of the date onwhich Zhizhen Technology has acquired all of the Equity Interests in Shanghai Xiao-i,or this Agreement is terminated by the mutual written consent.Exclusive Business Cooperation AgreementOn March 29,2019,Zhizhen Technology entered into an Exclusive BusinessCooperation Agreement with Shanghai Xiao-i to enable Zhizhen Technology to engagein the development and operation of the Internet technology development inaccordance with applicable laws.Under this agreement,Shanghai Xiao-i appointedZhizhen Technology to provide exclusive comprehensive business support,technicalservices,consulting services and other services to Shanghai Xiao-i,and ShanghaiXiao-i agreed to accept such services.The term of the Services provided by ZhizhenTechnology shall be 10 years from the effective date of March 29,2019,and will beautomatically extended after the expiration until when terminated in writing byZhizhen Technology.Additionally,Zhizhen Technology has the full and exclusiveright to manage and direct all cash flow and assets of Shanghai Xiao-i and todirect and administrate the financial affairs and daily operation of Shanghai Xiao-i.In exchange,Shanghai Xiao-i pays service fees to Zhizhen Technology.Theservice fees shall consist of 100%of the profit before tax of Shanghai Xiao-i,after the deduction of all costs,82023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1935172/000121390022081122/ff12022_xiaoicorp.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1935172/000121390022081122/ff12022_xiaoicorp.htm18/282Table of Contentsexpenses,taxes and other fee required under PRC laws and regulations.If ShanghaiXiao-i is unable to pay the service fees due to the actual managing situation,withthe written consent of Zhizhen Technology,the unpaid part of the service fees inthe previous fiscal year can be deferred to the end of the next year and settledtogether.Shanghai Xiao-i agrees not to accept the same or any similar servicesprovided by any third party and shall not establish cooperation relationshipssimilar to that formed by the Exclusive Business Cooperation Agreement with anythird party,except with the prior written consent of Zhizhen Technology.Duringthe validity term of this agreement,Zhizhen Technology will bear all the economicbenefits and risks arising from the business of Shanghai Xiao-i and itssubsidiaries.Zhizhen Technology will provide financial support to Shanghai Xiao-ior its subsidiaries in the event of a loss or serious operational difficulties.Power of Attorney AgreementOn March 29,2019,each shareholder of Shanghai Xiao-i,signed the Power ofAttorney Agreement to irrevocably entrust Zhizhen Technology or anyperson(s)designated by Zhizhen Technology to act as its attorney-in-fact toexercise any and all of its rights as a shareholder of Shanghai Xiao-i,including,but not limited to,the right to convene,attend and present the shareholdersmeetings,vote,sign and perform as a shareholder;transfer,pledge or dispose ofall the equity interest of Shanghai Xiao-i held by the shareholder;collect thedividend,and participate in litigation procedures.This agreement is effective andirrevocable until all of each shareholders equity interest in Shanghai Xiao-i hasbeen transferred to Shanghai Xiao-i or the person(s)designated by ZhizhenTechnology.Share Interest Pledge AgreementUnder the Share Interest Pledge Agreement signed on March 29,2019 by and amongZhizhen Technology and each shareholder of Shanghai Xiao-i,the shareholders ofShanghai Xiao-i have agreed to pledge 100%equity interest in Shanghai Xiao-i toZhizhen Technology to guarantee the performance obligations of Shanghai Xiao-iunder the Exclusive Business Cooperation Agreement,and the performance obligationsof each shareholder under the Exclusive Call Option Agreement.If Shanghai Xiao-ior its shareholders breach their contractual obligations under these agreements,Zhizhen Technology,as pledgee,will have the right to exercise the pledge.The shareholders also agreed that,without prior written consent of ZhizhenTechnology,they will not dispose of the pledged equity interests or create orallow any encumbrance on the pledged equity interests.The pledge of equityinterests in Shanghai Xiao-i has been registered with the relevant office of theState Administration for Market Regulation in accordance with the Civil Code of thePeoples Republic of China.Spousal Commitment LetterThe spouses of each individual shareholder of Shanghai Xiao-i have each signed aCommitment Letter.Under the Commitment Letter,the signing spouse unconditionallyand irrevocably has agreed to the execution by his or her spouse of the above-mentioned Exclusive Business Cooperation Agreement,Exclusive Call OptionAgreement,Power of Attorney Agreement and Share Interest Pledge Agreement,andthat his or her spouse may perform,amend or terminate such agreements without hisor her consent.In addition,in the event that the spouse obtains any equityinterest in Shanghai Xiao-i held by his or her spouse for any reason,he or sheagrees to be bound by and sign any legal documents substantially similar to thecontractual arrangements entered into by his or her spouse,as may be amended fromtime to time.The VIE structure is used to provide investors with exposure to foreign investmentin China-based companies where Chinese law prohibits direct foreign investment inthe operating companies.Xiao-I has evaluated the guidance in FASB ASC 810 anddetermined that Xiao-I is the primary beneficiary of the VIE,for accountingpurposes,based upon such contractual arrangements.ASC 810 requires a VIE to beconsolidated if the company is subject to a majority of the risk of loss for theVIE or is entitled to receive a majority of the VIEs residual returns.A VIE isan entity in which a company,through contractual arrangements,is fully andexclusively responsible for the management of the entity,absorbs all risk oflosses of the entity(excluding non-controlling interests),receives the benefitsof the entity that could be significant to the entity(excluding non-controllinginterests),and has the exclusive right to exercise all voting rights of theentity,and therefore the company is the primary beneficiary of the entity foraccounting purposes.Under ASC 810,a reporting entity has a controlling financialinterest in a VIE,and must consolidate that VIE,if the reporting entity has bothof the following characteristics:(a)the power to direct the activities of the VIEthat most significantly affect the VIEs economic performance;and(b)theobligation to absorb losses,or the right to receive benefits,that couldpotentially be significant to the VIE.Through the VIE agreements,the Company isdeemed the92023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1935172/000121390022081122/ff12022_xiaoicorp.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1935172/000121390022081122/ff12022_xiaoicorp.htm19/282Table of Contentsprimary beneficiary of the VIE for accounting purposes.The VIE has no assets thatare collateral for or restricted solely to settle its obligations.The creditors ofVIE do not have recourse to the Companys general credit.Accordingly,underU.S.GAAP,the results of the PRC operating entities are consolidated in Xiao-Isfinancial statements.However,investors will not and may never hold equity interests in the PRCoperating entities.The VIE Agreements may not be effective in providing controlover Shanghai Xiao-i.Uncertainties exist as to Xiao-Is ability to enforce theVIE Agreements,and the VIE Agreements have not been tested in a court of law.Ifthe VIE or its shareholders fail to perform their respective obligations under thecontractual arrangements,Xiao-I may have to incur substantial costs and expendadditional resources to enforce such arrangements.The Chinese regulatoryauthorities could disallow this VIE structure,which would likely result in amaterial change in the PRC operating entities operations and the value of Xiao-Is ADSs,including that it could cause the value of such securities tosignificantly decline or become worthless.See“Risk Factors Risks Relating toOur Corporate Structure”beginning on page 52 of this prospectus for certain risksrelating to the contractual arrangements.As of the date of this prospectus,no cash transfer or transfer of other assets byway of dividends or distributions have occurred among the Company,itssubsidiaries,or the PRC operating entities.Xiao-I intends to keep any futureearnings to finance the expansion of its business,and it does not anticipate thatany cash dividends will be paid,or any funds will be transferred from one entityto another,in the foreseeable future.As such,Xiao-I has not installed any cashmanagement policies that dictate how funds are transferred among the Company,itssubsidiaries,or investors,or the PRC operating entities.For further details,please refer to“Prospectus Summary Consolidation”,as well as the condensedconsolidating schedule and the consolidated financial statements included elsewherein this registration statement.Xiao-I is a holding company with no operations of its own.It conducts itsoperations in China primarily through the PRC operating entities in China.As aresult,although other means are available for Xiao-I to obtain financing at theholding company level,Xiao-Is ability to pay dividends and other distributionsto its shareholders and to service any debt it may incur may depend upon dividendsand other distributions paid by Xiao-Is PRC subsidiaries,which relies ondividends and other distributions paid by the PRC operating entities pursuant tothe VIE Agreements.If any of these entities incurs debt on its own in the future,the instruments governing such debt may restrict its ability to pay dividends andother distributions to Xiao-I.In addition,dividends and distributions from Xiao-Is PRC subsidiaries and theVIE are subject to regulations and restrictions on dividends and payment to partiesoutside of China.Applicable PRC law permits payment of dividends to Xiao-I by WFOEonly out of net income,if any,determined in accordance with PRC accountingstandards and regulations.A PRC company is not permitted to distribute any profitsuntil any losses from prior fiscal years have been offset by general reserve fundand profits(if general reserve fund is not enough).Profits retained from priorfiscal years may be distributed together with distributable profits from thecurrent fiscal year.In addition,registered share capital and capital reserveaccounts are also restricted from withdrawal in the PRC,up to the amount of netassets held in each operating subsidiary.In contrast,there is presently noforeign exchange control or restrictions on capital flows into and out ofHong Kong.Hence,Xiao-Is Hong Kong subsidiary is able to transfer cash withoutany limitation to the Cayman Islands under normal circumstances.As a result ofthese PRC laws and regulations,the PRC operating entities are restricted in theirability to transfer a portion of their net assets to the Company.Moreover,the transfer of funds among the PRC operating entities are subject to theProvisions on Private Lending Cases,which was implemented on January 1,2021 toregulate the financing activities between natural persons,legal persons andunincorporated organizations.As advised by Xiao-Is PRC counsel,Jingtian&Gongcheng,the Provisions on Private Lending Cases does not prohibit using cashgenerated from one PRC operating entity to fund another affiliated PRC operatingentitys operations.Xiao-I,its subsidiaries or the PRC operating entities havenot been notified of any other restriction which could limit the PRC operatingentities ability to transfer cash among each other.In the future,cash proceedsfrom overseas financing activities,including this offering,may be transferred byXiao-I to AI Plus,and then transferred to Xiao-i Technology,and then transferredto WFOE via capital contribution or shareholder loans,as the case may be.Cashproceeds may flow to Shanghai Xiao-i from WFOE pursuant to certain contractualarrangements between WFOE and Shanghai Xiao-i as permitted by the applicable PRCregulations.Under Cayman Islands law,a Cayman Islands company may pay a dividend on its sharesout of either profit or share premium amount,provided that in no circumstances maya dividend be paid out of share premium if this would result in the company beingunable to pay its debts due in the ordinary course of business.Xiao-I does notexpect to pay102023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1935172/000121390022081122/ff12022_xiaoicorp.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1935172/000121390022081122/ff12022_xiaoicorp.htm20/282Table of Contentsdividends in the foreseeable future.If,however,it declares dividends on itsOrdinary Shares,the depositary will pay you the cash dividends and otherdistributions it receives on Xiao-Is Ordinary Shares after deducting its fees andexpenses in accordance with the terms set forth in the deposit agreement.If itdetermines to pay dividends on any of its Ordinary Shares in the future,as aholding company,it will rely on payments made from Shanghai Xiao-i to WFOE,pursuant to the VIE Agreements between them,and the distribution of such paymentsto Xiao-i Technology from WFOE,and then to AI Plus from Xiao-i Technology,andthen to Xiao-I from AI Plus as dividends,unless it receives proceeds from futureofferings.See“Prospectus Summary Transfers of Cash to and from the VIE”onpage 26 and“Risk Factors Risks Relating to Doing Business in China There aresignificant uncertainties under the EIT Law relating to the withholding taxliabilities of our PRC subsidiary,and dividends payable by our PRC subsidiary toour offshore subsidiaries may not qualify to enjoy certain treaty benefits”onpage 66 of this prospectus.Product and Technology OverviewOverall Architecture of Shanghai Xiao-is Products and TechnologiesThe overall architecture of Shanghai Xiao-is products and technologies aredivided into three layers:(1)infrastructure,(2)aggregation empowerment platformand(3)domain application.Infrastructure LayerShanghai Xiao-is infrastructure layer provides the informational support for itsproducts and technologies.Typically built with third-party products andtechnologies,it integrates the information into the infrastructure layer.Additional properties include:Compatibility with cloud native and private or third-party cloudplatforms;Ubiquitous perception layer connection enabling integration with theInternet of Things,the Internet,5G,and dedicated networks;and Multidimensional data collection and integration,includingspatiotemporal,channels,and community.112023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1935172/000121390022081122/ff12022_xiaoicorp.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1935172/000121390022081122/ff12022_xiaoicorp.htm21/282Table of ContentsAggregation Empowerment Platform LayerAI Core Technology Platform Cognitive Intelligence ArtificialIntelligence(CIAI)Using proprietary intellectual property technologies,Shanghai Xiao-i hasindependently developed CIAI,its core technology platform.To date,it hasdeveloped and commercialized six core technologies based on CIAI:(1)naturallanguage processing,(2)speech processing,(3)computer vision,(4)machinelearning,(5)affective computing and(6)data intelligence and hyperautomation.Natural Language Processing CIAIs multilingual,natural language processing capability extractsand analyzes information,mines text,constructs knowledge,andperforms knowledge representation and reasoning based on words,phrases,sentences,and text,providing solutions to the human-computer interaction needs of diverse enterprises and professionalusers.Speech Processing The hybrid architecture of Time-Delay Neural Network DeepFeedforward Sequential Memory Network attention,in combination withShanghai Xiao-is vast corpus accumulation of more than ten years,has enabled it to train its intelligent voice technology for end-to-end application across various scenarios in numerous fields.Based onthese technologies,it has built a variety of intelligent voicesolutions under the Aviation Industry Computer-Based TrainingCommittee framework,including intelligent Interactive Voice Responsenavigation,intelligent outbound call,intelligent agent assistance,intelligent voice quality inspection,and intelligent coaching.Computer Vision Shanghai Xiao-i offers various computer vision capabilities,including face recognition and analysis,multi-target tracking,humanposture and action recognition,and scene analysis capabilities suchas semantic and instance segmentation.In terms of Optical CharacterRecognition(“OCR”),it has general OCR and customized OCR for alltypes of cards,invoice,receipts,tickets,and more.In terms ofconstruction drawing analysis,it applies various capabilitiesincluding pattern recognition and computer vision to comprehensivelyanalyze and process Computer Aided Design(“CAD”)drawings,bringing to life standard review capability for construction drawings.Relating to engineering,it provides rapid122023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1935172/000121390022081122/ff12022_xiaoicorp.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1935172/000121390022081122/ff12022_xiaoicorp.htm22/282Table of Contentsengineering customization through its internally-developed deeplearning framework,which is a machine learning algorithm that usesmultiple layers to progressively extract higher-level features fromthe raw input.It also offers model distillation and pruning solutionsto meet clients model compression requirements.This highperformance framework is adaptable to various environments.Machine Learning Machine learning methods offered by Shanghai Xiao-i includeeverything from traditional machine learning to the latest deeplearning,reinforcement learning(a machine learning training methodbased on rewarding desired behaviors and/or punishing undesired ones),active learning(a learning algorithm that interactively queries auser or some other information source to label new data points withthe desired outputs),transfer learning(reusing elements of a pre-trained model in a new machine learning model),and generativeadversarial networks(“GAN”)(a machine learning model in which twoneural networks compete with each other to become more accurate intheir predictions).These methods are applied across multiple fieldssuch as natural language processing,speech recognition,visionrecognition and analysis,and in business scenarios such as precisionmarketing,personalized recommendation,and risk assessment incombination with massive data and distribution processing algorithmsto form an efficient human-computer collaborative learning system.Affective Computing Deep learning technology is used to recognize,understand,process,and simulate human emotions,so as to realize multi-dimensional andmultimodal affective computing capabilities such as text,voice andvision.Shanghai Xiao-i has built affective computing,analysis,andinteractive processing capabilities that process real-time perception,intelligent planning,automatic simulation,and this technology hasbeen widely used in various practical business scenarios.Data Intelligence and Hyperautomation Large-scale machine learning technology mines,analyzes,andprocesses massive amounts of data,the assets of which arecomprehensively integrated to extract information contained therein.Business processes are automatically and quickly identified,reviewed,and executed in combination with innovative technologies such asprocess automation and low code(which provides a developmentenvironment used to create application software through a graphicaluser interface).The results enable enterprises to delegate simpletasks with high repeatability,as well as complex tasks,to AI anddata enhancement,thereby improving the quality and efficiency ofbusiness operations.Applications include data monitoring,dataanalysis,user profiling,business process automation,financingbusiness automation,financial business automation,supply chainbusiness automation,IT operation,and maintenance and integrationautomation.Shanghai Xiao-is Product PlatformsShanghai Xiao-i has commercialized its six core technologies to create thefollowing product platforms:(1)Conversational AI,(2)Knowledge Fusion,(3)Intelligence Voice,(4)Hyperautomation,(5)Data Intelligence,(6)IntelligentConstruction Support,(7)Vision Analysis,(8)Intelligent Hardware Support,and(9)Metaverse.Conversational AI Platform Its conversational AI platform makes full use of deep learning,dataenhancement,and active learning technologies,employing flexible anddiverse dialog management and context processing mechanisms,anddriven by a powerful learning system,the results of which achieve in-depth scenario dialog processing,intent recognition,and complexlogic reasoning in combination with structured knowledge and semanticanalysis capabilities.Additionally,the platform realizes thebusiness value of conversational AI in a variety of applicationscenarios,including intelligent customer service,smart marketing,intelligent hardware,intelligent assistant,agent assistance,andintelligent human-computer training.132023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1935172/000121390022081122/ff12022_xiaoicorp.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1935172/000121390022081122/ff12022_xiaoicorp.htm23/282Table of Contents Knowledge Fusion Platform The knowledge fusion platform integrates various types of knowledgesuch as Question&Answer(“Q&A”),documents,multimedia,information forms,business processes,knowledge graphs,andmultimodal to assist enterprises in improving knowledge managementcapabilities,building intelligent service cores,supportingintelligent knowledge management,retrieval,recommendation,application assistance,cognitive reasoning,and other capabilities.It helps enterprise-level intelligent applications,improves workefficiency,optimizes user experience,and reduces enterpriseoperating costs.Intelligent Voice Platform Shanghai Xiao-is intelligent voice platform(“IVP”)uses naturallanguage processing(“NLP”),automatic speech recognition,voiceprint recognition,and text-to-speech technologies with human-computer interaction as its core,in combination with various businessscenarios,to comprehensively create or enhance business capabilitiessuch as intelligent speech solutions,thereby realizing the macroprocesses of intelligent IVP,intelligent outbound calls,speechanalysis,agent assistance,and human-computer interaction.Hyperautomation Platform The hyperautomation platform innovatively uses low code technology incombination with agents to realize and expand vast capabilities of thetraditional low code platform and Robotic Process Automation.Itintegrates technologies such as OCR,NLP,and visualized data miningand analysis,enables users to realize business and processautomation,combines capabilities of knowledge base and imitationlearning,and enables realization of business and process intelligencewith intelligent planning capabilities.Data Intelligence Platform The data intelligence platform comprehensively integrates dataassets,manages the entire life cycle of data,and realizes the entirecycles of data integration,processing,transformation,analysis,andmining through What You See Is What You Get(a system in which editingsoftware allows content to be edited in a form that resembles itsappearance when printed or displayed as a finished product)with thesupport of component-based data visualization technology.It alsohelps clients extract valuable information contained in data,andprovides assistance in business and process automation,businessprediction,decision support,among others,and improves theefficiency of data-driven business intelligence and businessintelligence services.Intelligent Construction Support Platform Shanghai Xiao-is intelligent construction support platform offersmany capabilities such as parsing,reconstruction,visualization,andmulti-dimensional analysis of construction drawings.Combined with avariety of construction application scenarios,the platform canrealize intelligent construction drawings review,design assistance,online collaborative design,among other applications.It enables theconstruction industry to reduce the cost of drawing review,improveper-capita energy efficiency,empowers the construction industry valuechain,and facilitates the transformation and upgrading ofintelligence and automation.Vision Analysis Platform The vision analysis platform uses a variety of computer vision-related technologies to apply OCR,detection,video,and imageanalysis,helps clients extract and mine valuable informationcontained in images,and realizes business automation,industrialdefect detection,monitoring analysis,and other innovativeapplications encountered in specific business scenarios.Intelligent Hardware Support Platform The intelligent hardware support platform provides the framework ofsignal collection,processing,analysis,prediction,and more.Thisframework can be combined with various sensors to quickly processsignal,select and adapt appropriate machine learning algorithms forbusiness modeling according to the intelligent requirements of varioustypes of hardware,make full use of various machine learningcapabilities to make the equipment be more intelligent.142023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1935172/000121390022081122/ff12022_xiaoicorp.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1935172/000121390022081122/ff12022_xiaoicorp.htm24/282Table of Contents Metaverse Platform Shanghai Xiao-i developed the first virtual digital human in 2016 andreleased it for the first time at the Guiyang Digital Expo in 2017.Itcontinues to innovate and develop more advanced and smarter digitalhuman products.Digital human with multimodal emotional interactioncapabilities can be widely used in various business scenariosincluding film and television production,media,games,financialservices,culture,tourism,education,healthcare,and retail.Domain Application LayerFor more than 20 years,Shanghai Xiao-i has applied its aggregation platform toform a number of mature application fields designed to address the business needsof various fields,including(1)AI Contact Center,(2)AI Finance,(3)AI Urban Public Service,(4)AI Construction,(5)AI Metaverse,(6)AI Manufacturing and(7)AI Smart Healthcare.Its technologies are based,in significant part,upon its proprietary intellectualproperty portfolio.As of December 1,2022,Shanghai Xiao-i has applied for 554patents,281 of which have been granted and it has obtained 225 registeredtrademarks and 130 computer software copyrights.In June 2020,it passed thenational intellectual property management system certification and obtained thecertificate.This certificate represents that the companys intellectual propertymanagement system conforms to the GB/T 29490-2013 standard,which is the firstnational standard for enterprise intellectual property management jointly draftedand formulated by China National Intellectual Property Administration and the ChinaNational Institute of Standardization,and jointly approved by the GeneralAdministration of Quality Supervision,Inspection and Quarantine of the PRC andStandardization Administration of the PRC.It continues to develop and improve itsintellectual property portfolio through its in-depth Research and Development(“R&D”)department.As of December 1,2022,it has 277 R&D personnel,accountingfor about 62.5%of its personnel,including 189 with Bachelors degrees,23 withMasters degrees and 5 with Doctorates.Its primary services are softwareservices.Software services refer to the sales of software products correspondingto the Companys obtained patents or software copyrights to customers for meetingthe needs of different customers in different industries for artificialintelligence:(1)Contact Center:Shanghai Xiao-i leverages contact center AI solutionsto improve customer experience and operational efficiency.It offers AI-based platforms,software tools and services that leverage voice-basedassistants to facilitate strong interactions and engagement in differentindustries,including both small and medium enterprises and largeenterprises.(2)Architectural Design AI services Shanghai Xiao-i provides professionalarchitectural drawing review solutions.By using computer vision,naturallanguage processing technology and its unique map,image morphologyprocessing,pattern recognition,image segmentation,image targetdetection,path planning,OCR and many other independent research anddevelopment technologies,combined with the rich professional experiencein architectural design,it has launched AI products for blueprint reviewto achieve automation and intelligence,enabling the architecture industryto reduce the cost of reviewing blueprints,improving the efficiency,andcross-institution collaborative drawing review.(3)Smart City Shanghai Xiao-i uses natural language processing,dataintelligence and other technologies to build a cognitive brain for smartcity public services,and continuously improves the level of urbanintelligence from social service efficiency and public experience.Itprovides solutions such as smart city service hotline,smart publicservice and smart legal services.The PRC operating entities generate revenue primarily from the(i)sale of softwareproducts and service,(ii)maintenance and support(“M&S”)service,and(iii)saleof cloud platform products.For the years ended December 31,2020 and 2021,and forthe six months ended June 30,2021 and 2022,their total revenue wasUS$13.86 million,US$32.52 million,US$8.9 million,and US$12.9 million,respectively.1.Their software products sold to customers comprising customized softwareproducts for specific needs.The revenue from sales of software productsincreased by 109.9%from US$11.50 million for the year ended December 31,2020 to US$24.14 million for the year ended December 31,2021,primarilydue to two major contracts signed in 2021,providing smart graphic reviewsoftware products amounted to US$11.88 million and technical servicesamounted to US$1.51 million,respectively.The revenue from sales ofsoftware products increased by 57.8%from US$4.88 million for the sixmonths ended June 30,152023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1935172/000121390022081122/ff12022_xiaoicorp.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1935172/000121390022081122/ff12022_xiaoicorp.htm25/282Table of Contents2021 to US$7.69 million for the six months ended June 30,2022,primarilydue to two major contracts providing technical services amounted toUS$3.37 million and software products sales amounted to US$1.19 million,respectively.2.They provide M&S services for software products contracts which consist offuture software updates,upgrades,and enhancements as well as technicalproduct support services,and the provision of updates and upgrades on awhen-and-if-available basis.The revenue from sales of M&S serviceincreased by 43.1%from US$1.94 million for the year ended December 31,2020 to US$2.78 million for the year ended December 31,2021,primarilydue to more residence service provided to customers in 2021.The revenuefrom sales of M&S service increased by 4.6%from US$1.43 million for thesix months ended June 30,2021 to US$1.50 million for the six months endedJune 30,2022,primarily due to a slight increase of price per serviceprovided to customers in 2022.3.Their cloud platform products,which is a newly established revenue streamin 2021,consist of standardized software products uploaded to their cloudplatform.The revenue from sales of cloud platform products increased fromnil for the year ended December 31,2020 to US$5.53 million for the yearended December 31,2021.The revenue from sales of cloud platform productsincreased by 44.5%from US$2.53 million for the six months ended June 30,2021 to US$3.65 million for the six months ended June 30,2022,primarilydue to increased number of customers attracted by the flexibility andmobility of cloud platform products.They sell their products and services to end customers through their salesecosystem.Sales to customers in Mainland China accounted for approximately 88.3%and 97.7%of their total revenue in the fiscal years 2020 and 2021,and 96.1%and99.3%for the six months ended June 30,2021 and 2022,respectively.Sales to customers in Hong Kong,Macao,Taiwan and other countries accounted forapproximately 11.7%and 2.3%of their total revenue in the fiscal years 2020 and2021,and 3.9%and 0.7%for the six months ended June 30,2021 and 2022,respectively.Shanghai Xiao-is Competitive AdvantagesShanghai Xiao-i believes it has the following competitive advantages and theydistinguish Shanghai Xiao-i from its competitors:Its Pioneer Position in AI Technology and Focus on Research and Development(“R&D”)It believes that it pioneered the industrys first cognitive intelligenceand narrow artificial intelligence technology and have built on itsculture of innovation.Since its establishment in 2001,Shanghai Xiao-i has focused on developingcognitive intelligence technologies based on its natural languageprocessing and“AI”implementation in businesses,enjoying a privilegedreputation in the“AI”industry.As a leading AI technology andindustrialization service platform in China,through years of operation,it has established cooperation with many leading companies amongst variousindustry verticals according to Frost&Sullivan.Its industry leadershipis built on its pioneering research to commercialize AI technology.Its first-mover advantage in natural language processing has made it apioneer in formulating AI industry standards and creating more than 500patents granted or pending.To protect its technology,in June 2012,Shanghai Xiao-i sued Apple Computer Trading(Shanghai)Co.,Ltd.,asubsidiary of Apple,Inc.,for patent infringement and received theSupreme Peoples Court Supreme Court Administrative Judgment,a finaljudgement,confirming the validity of Shanghai Xiao-is patent in June2020,but did not make a ruling on whether Apple infringed its patent.Specifically,according to the Patent Administration(Patent)RetrialAdministrative Judgment issued by the Supreme Peoples Court of China(2017)ZGFXZ No.34),in the retrial case of Shanghai Xiao-i and AppleComputer Trading(Shanghai)Co.,Ltd.and the China National IntellectualProperty Administration,the Supreme Peoples Court determined that theinvention patent named“A Chatbot System(Patent No.:200410053749.9)”held by Shanghai Xiao-i is a valid patent.On August 3,2020,afterobtaining the final judgment confirming the validity of its patent,Shanghai Xiao-i filed another infringement lawsuit against Apple ComputerTrading(Shanghai)Co.,Ltd.,Apple,Inc.,and Apple Computer Trading(Shanghai)Co.,Ltd.(together,“Apple”),demanding Apple to stop theinfringement and compensate for the losses.As of the date of thisprospectus,the case is still pending.See“Legal Proceedings on page 131for details.”162023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1935172/000121390022081122/ff12022_xiaoicorp.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1935172/000121390022081122/ff12022_xiaoicorp.htm26/282Table of Contents Shanghai Xiao-i is a pioneer in AI with over 20 years of development andinnovation with 4 R&D centers,280 engineers,50 external experts,and10 university partners.Advantages of Shanghai Xiao-is Products and Services It develops and commercializes Metaverse-related offerings,includingVirtual Humans,Artificial Reality(“AR”)and Virtual Reality(“VR”).It helps its clients with their digital transformation using its cognitiveintelligence and AI technologies.It enables its customers to reap economies of scale by providing one-stopshop service from its extensive network of service hubs in their vicinity.Its deep-rooted attention to quality assurance in its product and serviceofferings puts it ahead of its competitors.It has a proven monetization model based on product differentiation,revenue source diversification,and customer loyalty.Its products and services meet the needs of different customers and itmaintains frequent client engagement for continuous business developmentand customer loyalty cultivation.While its customer contracts vary,they generally represent multi-yearengagements,giving it visibility into future revenue.It has mastersimilar commercial arrangements in place with many of its customers,retaining customers over the long term.Shanghai Xiao-is Robust Ecosystem of Partnerships It has various regional sales teams,including Shanghai,Beijing and HongKong.It maintains good relationships with suppliers that have a good record ofperformance.Its products cover large and medium-sized contact centers,financialinstitutions,communication operators,government services,industrialmanufacturing,healthcare,and other customer groups.It builds strong and long-standing customer relationships with largeenterprises in China.Its client list includes nearly all the industrygiants in the banking and telecom industries in China.Shanghai Xiao-is Visionary and Seasoned Management Its CEO Mr.Hui Yuan is a recognized AI industry Key Opinion Leader anddomain expert.Shanghai Xiao-is team has deep technical expertise and proven trackrecord of constant innovation.Shanghai Xiao-i has proven ability to attract and retain highly qualifiedtalent.Shanghai Xiao-is Growth StrategyIt intends to further grow its business by pursuing the following strategies:Continue to improve cognitive technology capability.It has setup a technology research institute to conduct in-depth communication ontechnological innovation with experts and scholars from top universities,such as Duke University,Hong Kong University of science and technologyand Columbia University.It has also carried out in-depth cooperation withwell-known domestic universities to jointly develop the latest andcutting-edge technologies.Further develop and create long-term sustainablecommercialization opportunities through technology innovation,application combination innovation,and AI productdiversification.For example,its commercialization in the field ofintelligent drawing review has met the needs of the construction industryfor drawing review through its artificial intelligence technology.172023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1935172/000121390022081122/ff12022_xiaoicorp.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1935172/000121390022081122/ff12022_xiaoicorp.htm27/282Table of Contents Further strengthen the leading position in the metaverse relatedproducts.It began to design and produce a virtual human in 2016.Itsfirst mover advantage in the metaverse will help it continue to succeed inthis field.Expand its customer base and make full use of existing customersthrough market segmentation and personalization.It willgradually expand its target customers from the previous major customers tosmall and medium-sized customers,to provide services for a wider range ofcustomer groups.Increase hardware products.As a company mainly engaged insoftware sales and services,it will increase integrated software andhardware products in the future.Further expand its global footprint strategically.The goal ofthe company is to become a global artificial intelligence enterprise.After the completion of this offering,it is committed tointernationalizing its products and services and providing high-qualityproducts and services to customers around the world.ConsolidationXiao-I conducts substantially all of its business in China through Shanghai Xiao-i,the VIE,due to PRC legal restrictions of foreign ownership in certain sectors.Substantially all of Xiao-Is revenues,costs and net income in China are directlyor indirectly generated through the VIE.Xiao-I,through its indirect wholly ownedsubsidiary,Zhizhen Technology,has signed various agreements with the VIE andshareholders of the VIE to allow the transfer of economic benefits from the VIE toZhizhen Technology and to direct the activities of the VIE.Total assets andliabilities presented on Xiao-Is consolidated balance sheets and revenue,expense,net income presented on consolidated statement of operations andcomprehensive income as well as the cash flow from operating,investing andfinancing activities presented on the consolidated statement of cash flows are thefinancial position,operation and cash flow of the PRC operating entities(excluding non-controlling interests).The Company has not provided any financialsupport to the PRC operating entities for the fiscal years ended at December 31,2020,2021 and for the six months ended June 30,2022,and the variable interestentities accounted for an aggregate of 100%,100%,and 95%of the Companys totalassets and total liabilities,respectively.As of December 31,2020,2021 and June30,2022,$697,798 and$1,254,528 and$1,472,555 of cash,cash equivalents andrestricted cash were denominated in RMB,respectively.Xiao-I and its directly and indirectly wholly owned subsidiaries,AI Plus,Xiao-iTechnology and Zhizhen Technology do not have any substantial assets or liabilitiesor result of operations.The following table sets forth the assets,liabilities,results of operations and changes in cash,cash equivalents of the PRC operatingentities,which were included in the Companys consolidated balance sheets andstatements of comprehensive income and statements of cash flows with intercompanytransactions eliminated:As of December 31,2020Condensed Consolidating Scheduleof Financial Position Parent VIE and its consolidatedsubsidiaries WFOE Other Subsidiaries EliminationAdjustments ConsolidatedTotal(in U.S.dollars)Assets Current assets:Cash and cash equivalents 1,105 365,756 4 366,865Restricted cash 460,164 460,164Accounts receivable,net 8,052,564 8,052,564Amounts due from related parties 23,072 23,072Inventories,net 273,364 273,364Contract costs 1,067,289 1,067,289Prepaid expenses and other currentassets,net 4 1,848,404 1,848,408Total current assets 1,109 12,090,613 4 12,091,726 182023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1935172/000121390022081122/ff12022_xiaoicorp.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1935172/000121390022081122/ff12022_xiaoicorp.htm28/282Table of Contents As of December 31,2020Condensed Consolidating Scheduleof Financial Position Parent VIE and itsconsolidatedsubsidiaries WFOE Other Subsidiaries EliminationAdjustments ConsolidatedTotal(in U.S.dollars)Non-current assets:Property and equipment,net 236,499 236,499 Intangible assets,net 886,479 886,479 Long-term investment 482,463 482,463 Right of use assets 2,250,351 2,250,351 Deferred tax assets,net 5,320,

6人看过 2023-02-10 第282章 5星

Pathmatics：2022 年欧洲社交媒体广告报告（engelsk 版）(26 sider).pdf

The State of Social Advertising in Europe An Analysis of Social Ad Spending Trends and Top Advertisers 2022 Sensor Tower Inc.-All Rights Reserved|Table of Contents03-Social Ad Overview 10-Arts&Entertainment 17-Gaming 22-Conclusion 2 An Overview of Social Ads in EuropeSocial Ad Overview:Europe 2022 Sensor Tower Inc.-All Rights Reserved|U.K.Advertisers Lead the Region with$736 M in Social Ad Spend per Month Social Advertising Overview,Europe between May 2022 and August 20224F57%of Total Ad Spending on Social Channels was Allocated on Facebook$1.46B Average Monthly Social Ad Spending336B Average Monthly Social Ad Impressions56WcebookInstagramTikTokSnapchat$0$150M$300M$450M$600M$750MU.K.Germany FranceItalySpain020B40B60B80B100B120BU.K.FranceItalyGermanySpain2%Note:Estimated ad spending across Europes big 5 countries(U.K.,Spain,Italy,France and Germany)between May 2022 and August 2022 2022 Sensor Tower Inc.-All Rights Reserved|Amazon Was the Top Advertiser across Key Social ChannelsTop Advertisers by Social Ad Spend in Europe between May and August 20225Note:Estimated ad spending across Europes big 5 countries(U.K.,Spain,Italy,France and Germany)between May 2022 and August 2022Facebook1Amazon2Vodafone3LOreal4Diageo5Secret Media6Beiersdorf7Samsung8Lidl9Sky plc10AdobeInstagram1Amazon2Procter&Gamble3LOreal4Diageo5Adobe6Mondelez7Unilever8Samsung9Disney10ZalandoTikTok1Amazon2Disney3SheIn4LOreal5Samsung6Procter&Gamble7Nike8Apple9Unilever10SonySnapchat1Amazon2Coca-Cola3Apple4Nike5Zalando6Samsung7Headspace8ROBLOX Corporation9Procter&Gamble10Under Armour 2022 Sensor Tower Inc.-All Rights Reserved|Retail Advertisers Led in Spending across Social ChannelsTop Categories by Ad Spending in Europe on Social Channels6Note:Estimated ad spending across Europes big 5 countries(U.K.,Spain,Italy,France and Germany)between May 2022 and August 2022Instagram1Retail22.2,onsumer Packaged Goods14.4%3Jobs&Education5.9Oood&Drink Services5.8Zrts&Entertainment5.5%V1Retail11.2,onsumer Packaged Goods10.7?ood&Drink Services5.9Kusiness5.7_inancial Services5.6%TikTok1Retail17.8,onsumer Packaged Goods12.2%3Gaming11.6Jrts&Entertainment10.8omputers&Consumer Electronics5.2%Snapchat1Retail17.6%2Gaming13.4onsumer Packaged Goods11.5Lomputers&Consumer Electronics7.4Zrts&Entertainment5.7cebook 2022 Sensor Tower Inc.-All Rights Reserved|Advertisers in Retail Slowed Ad Spend on Social ChannelsWhile Food&Drink Services advertisers in Europe had relatively stable investments on social ad spending,advertisers in Retail dropped their social ad budget over the past four months from$255 million in May 2022 to$215 million in August 2022,down 16 percent.Despite this decline,Retail remained the No.1 category on social channels,with its Share of Voice(SOV)at 15 percent.Expect Retail ad spend to pick back up again leading into the shopping holiday season.7Note:Estimated ad spending across Europes big 5 countries(U.K.,Spain,Italy,France and Germany)between May 2022 and August 2022.Social Channels included Facebook,Instagram,TikTok,Snapchat$0$10M$20M$30M$40M$50M$60M5/1/225/8/225/15/225/22/225/29/226/5/226/12/226/19/226/26/227/3/227/10/227/17/227/24/227/31/228/7/228/14/228/21/22RetailConsumer Packaged GoodsFood&Drink ServicesWeekly Ad Spend for the Top 3 Categories 2022 Sensor Tower Inc.-All Rights Reserved|Ad Spending on TikTok Spiked in 2022Unlike Facebook and Instagram where advertisers in Europe had relatively steady investment,ad investment on Snapchat and TikTok varied over the past four months.In particular,ad spending on TikTok spiked in July 2022,increasing by 18 percent from$67 million in May 2022 to$79 million.With the exception of Retails ad spending on TikTok slightly decreasing in July 2022,advertisers in the rest of the top categories(CPG,Gaming,Arts&Entertainment,and Computers&Consumer Electronics)increased their allotted budgets on TikTok by at least 40 percent in July 2022,compared to May.Note:Estimated ad spending across Europes big 5 countries(U.K.,Spain,Italy,France and Germany)between May 2022 and August 2022Growth in Monthly Ad Spend by Social Channels-10%-5%0%5 %May 2022Jun.2022Jul.2022Aug.2022FacebookInstagramSnapchatTikTokNote:Data is indexed to May 2022 May 2022=0%8 2022 Sensor Tower Inc.-All Rights Reserved|TikTok Continues to Lead App Adoption Market ShareTikTok has rapidly gained market share in Europe since it was launched in 2014(originally known as Musical.ly),making it a more important advertising channel than ever for European marketers to pay attention to in 2022.In 2020,TikToks app installs surpassed social giants including Facebook and Instagram,with 40 percent of market share among the top social apps in Europe.The trend continued into 2022,with TikTok commanding the most new installs among top social apps in Europe.TikTok has accounted for the largest share of downloads since 2020.On the contrary,Snapchat has lost its share of downloads among top social apps,declining from 31 percent in 2016 to 17 percent in H1 2022.Note:Download data is for European countries(U.K.,Spain,Italy,France and Germany)on the App Store and Google PlayProportion of Installs Among Top Social Apps in Europe201620172018201920202021H1 20220%Pu043&00)%#$ !$(4cebookInstagramSnapchatTikTok9 An Overview of the Ad spending Trends for the Top Arts&Entertainment Advertisers in the EuropeArts&Entertainment:Europe 2022 Sensor Tower Inc.-All Rights Reserved|Amazon and Disney Invested Heavily in Their Streaming ServicesAmazon was the largest Arts&Entertainment Advertiser on social channels,with$47 million in ad spending between May 2022 and August 2022.Its competitor Disney ranked as the No.2 advertiser with$37 million in ad spending.Both Amazon and Disney invested heavily in their streaming service brands.Amazon allocated nearly 50 percent($23 million)of its social ad budget on Prime Video ads in the past four months,while Disney invested more than three-quarters of its budget($29 million)on social ads for its Disney streaming service.Note:Estimated ad spending across Europes big 5 countries(U.K.,Spain,Italy,France and Germany)between May 2022 and August 2022.Social Channels included Facebook,Instagram,TikTok,SnapchatTop Arts&Entertainment Advertisers by Social Ad SpendingADisneyFever LabsDisplateJustWatchWarner Bros.NetflixSonyNBC UniversalUniversal MusicLive Nation$0$10M$20M$30M$40M$50M11 2022 Sensor Tower Inc.-All Rights Reserved|Amazon Invested on Social Ads After the Paramount U.K.LaunchAmazon Prime Video brand saw their ad investment reach$9.5 million in July 2022,up 68 percent month-over-month.Among Europes big five countries,Amazons biggest ad push came from the U.K.where they doubled their Prime Video ad spending to nearly$4 million in July.Amazon actively promoted Paramount in the U.K.after it launched towards the end of June.It spent a total of$1.5 million on its top creative in the first half of July which read“Discover a mountain of content with Paramount on Prime Video Channels.While Amazon increased its social ad budget for its Paramount channel,Disney shifted its ad budget away from social platforms to Desktop/Mobile Display.Its ad spending on social channels dropped to$6.3 million in July,down 21 percent M/M.Note:Estimated ad spending across Europes big 5 countries(U.K.,Spain,Italy,France and Germany)between May 2022 and August 2022.Social Channels included Facebook,Instagram,TikTok,SnapchatMonthly Ad Spending for the Top 3 Streaming Service Brands$0$2M$4M$6M$8M$10MMay 2022Jun.2022Jul.2022Aug.2022NetflixPrime VideoDisney 12 2022 Sensor Tower Inc.-All Rights Reserved|Disney s Ad spend Peaked a Week after Obi-Wan Kenobi Released In the U.K.,Disney ramped up its ad spending on Facebook right after the first episode of Obi-Wan Kenobi premiered on May 27th.It spent nearly$15 million on Facebook during the week of May 29th,which was nearly three times higher than the average of the prior three weeks.Disneys ad push for its new original series“Obi-Wan Kenobi”helped boost its Disney app installs during the week of May 29th,up 15 percent compared to the previous week.Note:Estimated ad spending in the U.K.Disney Social Ad Spend&App Downloads in the U.K.050,000100,000150,0005/1/225/8/225/15/225/22/225/29/226/5/226/12/226/19/226/26/227/3/227/10/227/17/227/24/227/31/228/7/228/14/228/21/22Disney Social Ad Spend in the U.K.$0$500K$1M$1.5M$2M5/1/225/8/225/15/225/22/225/29/226/5/226/12/226/19/226/26/227/3/227/10/227/17/227/24/227/31/228/7/228/14/228/21/22FacebookInstagramSnapchatTikTokDisney App Downloads in the U.K.(App Store and Google Play)13 2022 Sensor Tower Inc.-All Rights Reserved|Amazon Musics Ad Spending Peaked a Week Before Prime Day SaleAmazon centralized its advertising budget for its upcoming Prime Day deal starting in late July.It started running a special deal“Get 4 months of Amazon Music Unlimited for free”two weeks before the Prime Day sale.Its social ad spending ramped up by nearly 600 percent during the week of June 26th week-over week and it peaked the week July 3rd at more than$6.5 million in ad spending.Meanwhile,at end of the English Football League season,Spotify invested more on social advertising for its football related podcasts.In May 2022,Spotify spent more than$230 thousand on its top creative which highlighted“football stories told by the biggest names in the game”to attract football fans to their exclusive content.Note:Estimated ad spending in the U.K.Top Music Advertisers in the U.K.Weekly Ad Spending$0$1M$2M$3M$4M$5M$6M$7MAmazon MusicSpotify$0$100K$200K$300K$400K$500K5/1/225/8/225/15/225/22/225/29/226/5/226/12/226/19/226/26/227/3/227/10/227/17/227/24/227/31/228/7/228/14/228/21/22Prime Day Amazons two-day sale on July 12-1314 2022 Sensor Tower Inc.-All Rights Reserved|Spotify Utilized a More Diversified Ad StrategyAmazon Music and Spotify employed very different social ad strategies in the U.K.While Amazon Music allocated 88 percent of its ad budget to Facebook,Spotify had a more diversified strategy across social channels,spending at least 17 percent on four different platforms with Instagram leading the way at 45 percent.Amazon tended to include a link with a call to action like“get offer”to lead potential users to the Amazon Music home page for more information.More than 90 percent of its total ad spending went toward creatives of this type.Meanwhile,its competitor Spotify was more likely to use story posts to get people engaged with brand.Note:Estimated ad spending in the U.K.between May though August 2022Social Ad Strategy Amazon Music vs.SpotifyAd Spend Breakdown by Social DevicesAd Type Breakdown on Social Devices0%Pu0%Amazon MusicSpotify18%1E cebookInstagramTikTokSnapchatAmazon Music5%Spotify2P%4#!%LinkVideoPhotoStoryReelCarousel15 2022 Sensor Tower Inc.-All Rights Reserved|Amazon and Spotify Creative StrategiesSpotify and Amazon Music are the most downloaded music apps in the U.K.Amazons top creatives between May 2022 and August 2022 focused on 3-or 4-month free trials,with highlighted keywords“Limited-time(offer)”and“Free”.Spotify had more diversified creatives.Instead of relying on ads for promotions,it had various creative content that targeted different audiences.For example,its top creative emphasized football-themed podcasts for sports fans.Meanwhile,other creatives mentioned positive survey results from young audiences to appeal to Gen Z and Millennial consumers.Note:Estimated ad spending in the U.K.between May though August 2022Top Creatives between May 2022 and August 202216 An Overview of the Ad Spending Trends for the Top Gaming Advertisers in the EuropeGaming:Europe 2022 Sensor Tower Inc.-All Rights Reserved|Nintendo Steadily Climbed the Top Game Advertiser Rankings Top Gaming Advertisers by Social Ad Spend in Europe18Note:Estimated ad spending across Europes big 5 countries(U.K.,Spain,Italy,France and Germany)between May 2022 and August 2022May1Entain2888 Holdings3Take-Two Interactive 4CluedUpp5Tencent6Humble Bundle7Sony Games8Nintendo9Bonne Terre Limited10Lilith GamesJune1Epic Games2Take-Two Interactive3Entain4Nintendo5888 Holdings6Humble Bundle7CluedUpp8Sony Games9Tencent10Activision BlizzardJuly1Entain2Electronic Arts3888 Holdings4Nintendo5Take-Two Interactive6Activision Blizzard7Sony Games8Ubisoft9CluedUpp10Humble BundleAugust1Nintendo2Electronic Arts3Entain4888 Holdings5Activision Blizzard6Humble Bundle7Bonne Terre Limited8Take-Two Interactive9Sony Games10Tencent 2022 Sensor Tower Inc.-All Rights Reserved|Nintendo Ramped Up Social Ad Investment in August 2022Nintendo increased its ad spend on social channels between May 2022 and August 2022.It moved up from ranking as the No.8 Gaming advertiser in May to the top spot in August.Nintendo ramped up its ad investment on Facebook and Instagram for the release of its new game“Xenoblade Chronicles 3.”Its ad spending on social platforms reached$4 million in August 2022,up 64 percent compared to the previous month.Note:Estimated ad spending across Europes big 5 countries(U.K.,Spain,Italy,France and Germany)between May 2022 and August 2022Weekly Nintendo Ad Spending on Social in Europe$0$200K$400K$600K$800K5/1/225/8/225/15/225/22/225/29/226/5/226/12/226/19/226/26/227/3/227/10/227/17/227/24/227/31/228/7/228/14/228/21/22FacebookInstagramTikTokSnapchat19 2022 Sensor Tower Inc.-All Rights Reserved|TikTok has been a Key Social Channel for SupersonicTikTok was the only social channel where each of the top mobile game publishers allocated at least 15 percent of their U.K.ad budget.In particular,Supersonic and Voodoo prioritized the channel with more than 50 percent of their social ad budget.Hypercasual mobile game publishers Supersonic and Voodoo tend to market themselves towards a younger audience and mainly invested their advertising budgets on TikTok and Snapchat.Meanwhile,Take-Two Interactive,publisher of games including NBA 2K and Grand Theft Auto Online,had a more diversified strategy across social channels,spending at least 15 percent on four different channels.Note:Estimated ad spending in the U.K.between May 2022 and August 2022Top 5 Mobile Game Publisher in U.K.Ad Spending Share Among Social ChannelsTake-Two Interactive1591cebookInstagramTikTokSnapchatEmbracer Group22D4%AppLovin96H%7%Supersonic24e%Voodoo42R%7 2022 Sensor Tower Inc.-All Rights Reserved|Snapchat Advertising has Played an Important Role for VoodooSocial advertising has played an important role for the games industry.Gaming advertisers in the U.K.allocated 53 percent of their total ad spending on social channels between May to August 2022.Analyzing Voodoos ad spending and download data over the past four months reveals a strong relationship between both Snapchat and TikTok ad spend and new app downloads.In contrast,Voodoo invested very little on Instagram over this period.As Voodoo is a consistent top performer in the hypercasual games space,this suggests that top hypercasual publishers may find more success with Snapchat and TikTok ads.Note:Estimated ad spending in the U.K.Voodoos Weekly Ad Spending in the U.K.Downloads0200K400K600KAd Spending$0$25K$50K$75K5/1/225/8/225/15/225/22/225/29/226/5/226/12/226/19/226/26/227/3/227/10/227/17/227/24/227/31/228/7/228/14/228/21/22DownloadsInstagramTikTokSnapchatVoodoos Weekly Ad Spending in the U.K.$0$20K$40K$60K300K350K400K450K500K$0$20K$40K$60K300K350K400K450K500KSnapchat Ad Spend and App Installs CorrelationTikTok Ad Spend and App Installs CorrelationCorrelation coefficient:0.64Correlation coefficient:0.5221 Key Takeaways from the ReportConclusion 2022 Sensor Tower Inc.-All Rights Reserved|Conclusion:Social Advertising in Europe Between May 2022 and August 2022,advertisers in Europes big five(the U.K.,Spain,Italy,France and Germany)spent nearly$1.5 billion per month on social channels.Facebook was the top ad channel in the Europe,receiving more than half of the spend.Retail was the No.1 category across key social channels.Despite Retail advertisers decreasing their spend from$255 million in May to$215 million in August 2022,Retail remained the No.1 category across the four major social channels,with its Share of Voice(SOV)at 15 percent.Amazon and Disney invested heavily in their streaming service brands in Europe.Between May and August 2022,Amazon spent$23 million on Prime Video ads on social channels while Disney spent$29 million on Disney ads.Amazon centralized its advertising budget for their upcoming Prime Day deal.It ran a big ad campaign for Amazon Music two weeks before Prime Day,primarily using link posts on Facebook to advertise three or four months of free access to Amazon Music Unlimited.Analyzing Voodoos ad spending and download data in the past four months,there was a strong relationship between Snapchat and TikTok ad spend and downloads.This suggests that hypercasual games may find more success focusing on these social channels with a younger user base.23 2022 Sensor Tower Inc.-All Rights Reserved|L O N D O NS A N F R A N C I S C OS H A N G H A IS E O U LSensor Tower is the leading provider of actionable intelligence for the global digital economy,while Pathmatics turns the worlds marketing data into actionable insights.Sensor Tower provides enterprise-level data on mobile apps and publishers through proprietary Store Intelligence,Ad Intelligence,Usage Intelligence,Consumer Intelligence,and App Intelligence platforms,which offer download,revenue,share of voice,and engagement metrics at unparalleled accuracy for the worlds most important markets.Acquired in 2021 by Sensor Tower,Pathmatics brings visibility into display,social,video,OTT,and mobile advertising data.2022 Sensor Tower Inc.-All Rights ReservedAbout Sensor TowerContact Info:sensortower24Contact Info:sensortower 2022 Sensor Tower Inc.-All Rights Reserved|This report and all original content contained within are wholly owned by Sensor Tower,Inc.2022.Modification,republication,distribution,or other unauthorized usage violate this copyright,unless express permission has been granted.App icons,images,and other branding assets are property of their respective publishers and are used expressly for the purpose of editorial commentary.If you would like to republish any of the data contained in this report,please email for further information on how to do so.Were always happy to work with news organizations to provide custom data,insights and commentary.Contact for help.Sensor Tower&Pathmatics Terms of Use 2022 Sensor Tower Inc.-All Rights Reserved|25

5个人看过 2023-02-10 26 侧边 5星

奋旦科技（FDAN）美国IPO招股说明书（264页）.pdf

2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874137/000121390023002066/ff12023_fdtech.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874137/000121390023002066/ff12023_fdtech.htm1/264F-1 1 ff12023_fdtech.htm REGISTRATION STATEMENTAs filed with the U.S.Securities and Exchange Commission on January 10,2023.Registration No.333-UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSIONWashington,D.C.20549_FORM F-1REGISTRATION STATEMENTUNDER THE SECURITIES ACT OF 1933_FD TECHNOLOGY INC.(Exact name of Registrant as specified in its charter)Not Applicable(Translation of Registrants name into English)_Cayman Islands 7389 Not Applicable(State or other jurisdiction of incorporation or organization)(Primary Standard Industrial Classification Code Number)(I.R.S.Employer Identification number)Units A-B,15th Floor 180 Tianjin RoadHuangpu District,Shanghai,200001Peoples Republic of ChinaTel: 86-21-60901518(Address,including zip code,and telephone number,including area code,of Registrants principal executive offices)_Puglisi&Associates850 Library Avenue,Suite 204 Newark,DE 19711Tel:(302)738-6680(Name,address,including zip code,and telephone number,including area code,of agent for service)_Copies of all communications,including communicationssent to agent for service,should be sent to:Wei Wang,Esq.Ellenoff Grossman&Schole LLP1345 Avenue of the Americas,11th FloorNew York,NY 10105Tel:(212)370-1300 Fax:(212)370-7889 Anthony W.Basch,Esq.Alexander W.Powell,Esq.Chenxi Lu,Esq.Kaufman&Canoles,P.C.Two James Center 1021 East Cary Street,Suite 1400 Richmond,VA 23219Tel:(804)771-5700_Approximate date of commencement of proposed sale to the public:As soon aspracticable after this registration statement becomes effective.If any of the securities being registered on this Form are to be offered on a delayed orcontinuous basis pursuant to Rule 415 under the Securities Act of 1933,check the following box.If this Form is filed to register additional securities for an offering pursuant toRule 462(b)under the Securities Act,please check the following box and list the Securities Actregistration statement number of the earlier effective registration statement for the same offering.If this Form is a post-effective amendment filed pursuant to Rule 462(c)under the SecuritiesAct,check the following box and list the Securities Act registration statement number of theearlier effective registration statement for the same offering.If this Form is a post-effective amendment filed pursuant to Rule 462(d)under the SecuritiesAct,check the following box and list the Securities Act registration statement number of theearlier effective registration statement for the same offering.Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined inRule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933.Emerging growth company If an emerging growth company that prepares its financial statements in accordance withU.S.GAAP,indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transitionperiod for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant toSection 7(a)(2)(B)of the Securities Act._ The term“new or revised financial accounting standard”refers to any update issued by theFinancial Accounting Standards Board to its Accounting Standards Codification after April 5,2012.The Registrant hereby amends this registration statement on such date or dates asmay be necessary to delay its effective date until the Registrant shall file afurther amendment which specifically states that this registration statement shall2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874137/000121390023002066/ff12023_fdtech.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874137/000121390023002066/ff12023_fdtech.htm2/264thereafter become effective in accordance with Section 8(a)of the SecuritiesAct of 1933,as amended,or until the registration statement shall become effectiveon such date as the Commission,acting pursuant to said Section 8(a),may determine.2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874137/000121390023002066/ff12023_fdtech.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874137/000121390023002066/ff12023_fdtech.htm3/264Table of ContentsThe information in this preliminary prospectus is not complete and may be changed.Wemay not sell these securities until the registration statement filed with theSecurities and Exchange Commission is effective.This preliminary prospectus is notan offer to sell these securities and we are not soliciting offers to buy thesesecurities in any jurisdiction where the offer or sale is not permitted.PRELIMINARY PROSPECTUS SUBJECT TO COMPLETION,DATED JANUARY 10,20233,500,000 Ordinary SharesFD TECHNOLOGY INC._This is the initial public offering of ordinary shares of FD Technology Inc.,a Cayman Islandsexempted company.As a holding company with no material operations of our own,we conductsubstantially all of our operations through our operating subsidiaries established in the PeoplesRepublic of China(“PRC”or“China”),primarily Shanghai Fendan Information Technology Co.,Ltd.(“Shanghai Fendan”)and its subsidiary Beijing Xunyi Technology Co.,Ltd.(“Beijing Xunyi”).Throughout this prospectus,unless the context indicates otherwise,references to“Fendan”are toFD Technology Inc.,a Cayman Islands exempted holding company and references to“we,”“us,”“our,”“our company,”the“Company”or similar terms used in this prospectus refer to Fendanand its consolidated subsidiaries,namely,FD Technology Limited(“HK Fendan”),and Qingdao ZecanInformation Technology Co.,Ltd.(“Qingdao Zecan”or“WFOE”),Shanghai Fendan and its subsidiaryBeijing Xunyi(Beijing Xunyi,collectively with Qingdao Zecan and Shanghai Fendan,the“PRCSubsidiaries”).When used herein,the references to laws and regulations of“China”or the“PRC”are only to such laws and regulations of mainland China,excluding,for the purpose of thisprospectus only,Taiwan,Hong Kong and Macau.We are offering 3,500,000 ordinary shares,par value$0.000001 per share on a firm commitmentbasis.We expect the initial public offering price of the shares to be in the range of$4.00 to$6.00 per share.Prior to this offering,there has been no public market for our ordinary shares.Wehave applied to have our ordinary shares listed on the Nasdaq Capital Market(“Nasdaq”)under thesymbol“FDAN.”We cannot guarantee that we will be successful in listing our ordinary shares onNasdaq;however,we will not complete this offering unless we are so listed.Investors are cautioned that you are purchasing shares of Fendan,our CaymanIslands holding company in this initial public offering instead of purchasing equitysecurities of our subsidiaries that have business operations in China and may neverhold any equity interests in our operating companies in China.Our corporatestructure,i.e.,a Cayman Islands holding company with operations conducted by ourPRC Subsidiaries,involves unique risks to investors.We may rely on dividends and other distributions on equity paid by our PRC Subsidiaries forour cash and financing requirements and our distribution of earnings or settlement of amounts owedwill be done through our PRC Subsidiaries.If any of our PRC Subsidiaries incurs debt on its ownbehalf in the future,the instruments governing such debt may restrict its ability to pay dividendsto us.Historically,cash transfers between our PRC Subsidiaries were generally approved by thechief executive officer and the chairman of the board of directors of the company releasing thefunds.In December 2021,Shanghai Fendan adopted written cash management policies,which dictate theprinciple,plan,method,amount and procedure of cash transfers between Shanghai Fendan and itssubsidiary and branches.Cash transfers of RMB5 million(US$0.7 million)or less and less than 10%of the consolidated total assets of Shanghai Fendan and its subsidiary must first be reported to,reviewed and approved by Shanghai Fendans chief financial officer,and then approved by the chiefexecutive officer and the chairman of the board of directors of Shanghai Fendan.Cash transfers inexcess of RMB5 million(US$0.7 million)but less than or equal to RMB15 million(US$2.2 million),ormore than 10%of Shanghai Fendan and its subsidiary consolidated total assets but less than orequal to 30%of Shanghai Fendan and its subsidiary consolidated total assets must be firstapproved by the chief financial officer,the chief executive officer and the chairman of the boardof directors of Shanghai Fendan,and then approved by the board of directors of Shanghai Fendan.Cash transfer in excess of RMB15 million(US$2.2 million),or more than 30%of Shanghai Fendan andits subsidiary consolidated total assets must be first approved by the chief financial officer,the chief executive officer and the chairman of the board of directors of Shanghai Fendan,and thenapproved by the shareholders of Shanghai Fendan.For details on such cash management policies,see“Prospectus Summary Dividend Distributions or Assets Transfer among Fendan and ItsSubsidiaries”on page 14.Based on the advice of our Cayman counsel,Ogier(Cayman)LLP,there arecurrently no limitations imposed by Cayman Islands law on Fendans ability to transfer cash betweenFendan and its investors,other than as set out under“Dividend Policy”,and we do not expect thatthere are any limitations on Fendans ability to transfer cash between Fendan and its investorsgoing forward.However,there is no assurance that Cayman government will not intervene or imposerestrictions in future on Fendans ability to transfer or distribute cash between Fendan and itsinvestors.Among Fendan and its subsidiaries,cash can be transferred from Fendan and HK Fendan asneeded in the form of capital contributions or shareholder loans,as the case may be,to the PRCSubsidiaries as we are permitted under PRC laws and regulations to provide funding to our PRCSubsidiaries only through capital contributions or loans,and only if we satisfy the applicablegovernment registration and approval requirements in China.Based on the opinion of our Hong Kongcounsel,Chang&Co.,as of the date of this prospectus,there are no restrictions imposed by theHong Kong government on the foreign exchange and the transfer of capital within,into and out ofHong Kong(including funds from Hong Kong to mainland China),except transfer of funds involvingmoney laundering and criminal activities.We do not expect that there are any material limitationsin the future on Fendans ability to transfer cash originating from our PRC Subsidiaries,throughour corporate structure,to investors.However,the PRC government currently imposes foreignexchange controls on the conversion of RMB into foreign currencies and the remittance of currenciesout of mainland China.In addition,the PRC Enterprise Income Tax Law and its implementation rules2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874137/000121390023002066/ff12023_fdtech.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874137/000121390023002066/ff12023_fdtech.htm4/264provide that a withholding tax at a rate of 10%will be applicable to dividends payable by PRCcompanies to non-PRC-resident enterprises unless reduced under treaties or arrangements between thePRC central government and the governments of other countries or regions where the non-PRC residententerprises are tax resident.Further,to the extent cash or assets in our business are in mainlandChina or Hong Kong or a PRC or Hong Kong entity,the funds or assets may not be available to fundoperations or for other use outside of mainland China or Hong Kong in the event of any interventionsin or the imposition of restrictions and limitations on the ability of our company and oursubsidiaries by the PRC government to transfer cash or assets.There can be no assurance that thePRC government will not intervene or impose restrictions in future on our ability to transfer fundsor distribute dividends within our PRC Subsidiaries or to investors.As of the date of thisprospectus,no transfers,dividends or other distributions have been made from our subsidiaries toour holding company or our investors,including U.S.investors,and no transfers,loans,or capitalcontributions have been made from our holding company to any of our subsidiaries or our investors.In addition,there were no transfers,loans,or capital contributions made from our holding companyto our former variable interest entity(“VIE”)and its subsidiary,nor were there any transfers,loans,or capital contributions made from our former VIE and its subsidiary to our holding companyduring the fiscal years ended December 31,2021 and 2020 before we dissolved the VIE structure inOctober 2021.See“Prospectus Summary Our Corporate History and Structure CondensedConsolidating Schedule”on page 5,consolidated financial statements beginning on page F-26,“Prospectus Summary Summary of Significant Risks Affecting Our Company”on pages 6 to 10,and“Prospectus Summary Dividend Distributions or Assets Transfer among Fendan and ItsSubsidiaries”on pages 14 to 16.See also“Risk Factors Risks Related to Doing Business inChina To the extent cash or assets in our business are in mainland China or Hong Kong or a PRC orHong Kong entity,the funds or assets may not be available to fund operations or for other useoutside of mainland China or Hong Kong in the event of any interventions in or the imposition ofrestrictions and limitations on the ability of our company and our subsidiaries by the PRCgovernment to transfer cash or assets,which may materially and adversely affect our business,financial condition and results of operations and may result in our inability to sustain our growthand expansion strategies”on page 36.In the future,cash proceeds raised from overseas financingactivities,including this offering,may be transferred by us based on current statutory limits toour PRC Subsidiaries via capital contribution or shareholder loans,as the case may be.We are both an“emerging growth company”and a“foreign private issuer”as defined underthe U.S.federal securities laws and,as such,may elect to comply with certain reduced publiccompany reporting requirements for this and future filings.See“Prospectus Summary Implicationsof Being an Emerging Growth Company”and“Prospectus Summary Implications of Being a ForeignPrivate Issuer”on page 13.Our officers and directors will have significant influence over the Company following thecompletion of this offering due to their significant shareholding in the Company,in particular Mr.Chunjie Xu,our Chairman of the Board of Directors and our Chief Executive Officer,who currentlybeneficially owns an aggregate of 45.85%of our outstanding ordinary shares and is expected to ownapproximately 34.16%of our outstanding ordinary shares upon the completion of this offeringassuming no exercise of the underwriters over-allotment option.We do not expect Mr.Xu or anyother individual,group or company would have more than 50%of the voting power of our companyfollowing the offering thereby cause us to become a“controlled company”under Nasdaq listingrules.For more information regarding Mr.Xus beneficial ownership,see“Principal Shareholders”and“Risk Factors Risks Related to Offering and Ownership of Ordinary Shares Our ChiefExecutive Officer and Chairman of the Board of Directors,Mr.Chunjie Xu,has a substantialinfluence over our company.His interests may not be aligned with the interests of our othershareholders,and he could prevent or cause a change of control or other transactions”on page 62.There are significant legal and operational risks associated with havingoperating structure as a Cayman Islands holding company with substantially all ofoperations conducted by our PRC Subsidiaries in China,including changes in thelegal,political and economic policies of the Chinese government,the relationsbetween China and the United States,or Chinese or United States regulations,whichrisks could result in a material change in our operations and/or the value of thesecurities we are registering for sale,or could significantly limit or completelyhinder our ability to offer or continue to offer securities to investors and causethe value of such securities to significantly decline or be worthless.Given the PRCgovernments authority,oversight may also extend to HK Fendan,our Hong Kongsubsidiary,and the legal and operational risks associated with operating in mainlandChina could also apply to HK Fendan.2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874137/000121390023002066/ff12023_fdtech.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874137/000121390023002066/ff12023_fdtech.htm5/264Table of ContentsWe no longer use a VIE structure and operate our businesses in China throughequity ownerships in our PRC Subsidiaries.We dissolved our VIE structure in October2021 considering that the VIE arrangements may not be as effective as directownership in providing us with control over the VIE,and that our business is notsubject to any foreign ownership restrictions.However,the PRC regulatoryauthorities could change the rules and regulations regarding foreign ownership in theindustry in which we operate,which would likely result in a material change in ouroperations and/or a material change in the value of the ordinary shares we areregistering for sale,including that it could cause the value of such shares tosignificantly decline or become worthless.See“Risk Factors Risks Related to DoingBusiness in China The PRC government has significant oversight and discretion on the ability of aChina-based company to conduct its business,accept foreign investments or list on an U.S.or otherforeign exchanges by enforcing existing rules and regulation,adopting new ones,or changingrelevant industrial policies in a manner that may materially increase our compliance cost,changerelevant industry landscape or otherwise cause significant changes to our business operations inChina,which could result in material and adverse changes in our operations and cause the value ofour securities to significantly decline or be worthless”on page 23.Recently,the PRC government initiated a series of regulatory actions and made anumber of public statements on the regulation of business operations in China withlittle advance notice,including cracking down on illegal activities in thesecurities market,enhancing supervision over China-based companies listed overseas,adopting new measures to extend the scope of cybersecurity reviews,and expandingefforts in anti-monopoly enforcement.As advised by Grandway Law Offices(Chengdu),our PRC counsel,as of the date of this prospectus,no relevant laws or regulationsin the PRC explicitly require us to seek approval from the China SecuritiesRegulatory Commission(the“CSRC”),the Cyberspace Administration of China(the“CAC”)or any other PRC governmental authorities for our overseas listing plan,norhas our company,any of our PRC Subsidiaries received any inquiry,notice,warning orsanctions regarding our planned overseas listing from the CSRC,the CAC or any otherPRC governmental authorities.Based upon the advice of our PRC counsel,Grandway LawOffices(Chengdu),the newly issued notice on Guidelines for Enterprises OverseasAnti-monopoly Compliance by the State Administration for Market Regulation(the“SAMR”)on November 15,2021 only provides general guidelines for enterprisesoverseas anti-monopoly compliance and has no significant impact on the Companyslisting on an U.S.exchange.However,since these statements and regulatory actionsby the PRC government are newly published and official guidance and relatedimplementation rules have not been issued,it is highly uncertain what the potentialimpact such modified or new laws and regulations will have on our daily businessoperation,the ability to accept foreign investments and list on an U.S.exchange.Based on the opinion of our Hong Kong counsel,Chang&Co.,the relevant datasecurity and anti-monopoly laws and ordinance in Hong Kong,i.e.the Personal Data(Privacy)Ordinance(Chapter 486 of The Laws of Hong Kong)and the CompetitionOrdinance(Chapter 619 of The Laws of Hong Kong),are not applicable to our HKsubsidiary and have no impact on our ability to conduct our business,accept foreigninvestment or listing on an U.S.exchange as our Hong Kong subsidiary is currently aholding company with no business operations since its incorporation in Hong Kong.Furthermore,there are currently no regulatory actions related to data security oranti-monopoly concerns in Hong Kong that may impact our ability to conduct ourbusiness,accept foreign investment or list on a U.S./foreign exchange.The StandingCommittee of the PRC National Peoples Congress(the“SCNPC”)or other PRCregulatory authorities may in the future promulgate laws,regulations or implementingrules that requires our company and our PRC Subsidiaries to obtain regulatoryapproval from the PRC authorities before listing in the U.S.If any of our PRCSubsidiaries or the holding company were required to obtain approval in the futureand were denied permission from the PRC authorities to list on U.S.exchanges,ourability to conduct our business may be materially impacted,we will not be able tocontinue listing on any U.S.exchange,continue to offer securities to investors,theinterest of the investors may be materially adversely affected and our ordinaryshares may significantly decrease in value or become worthless.In addition,the PRC government has significant authority to exert influence onthe ability of a China-based company,such as our PRC Subsidiaries,to conduct itsbusiness,accept foreign investments or list on an U.S.or other foreign exchanges.The PRC government also has significant discretion over the conduct of our businessand may intervene with or influence our operations or the development of our industryas it deems appropriate to further regulatory,political and societal goals.Furthermore,the PRC government has recently indicated an intent to exert moreoversight and control over overseas securities offerings and foreign investment inChina-based companies.Any such action,once taken by the PRC government,maysignificantly limit or completely hinder our ability to offer or continue to offersecurities to investors and cause the value of such securities to significantlydecline or in extreme cases,become worthless.See“Risk Factors”beginning on page 21 ofthis prospectus,especially“Risks Related to Doing Business in China”for a discussion of theselegal and operational risks and other information that should be considered before making a decisionto purchase our ordinary shares.Furthermore,as more stringent criteria have been imposed by the SEC and thePublic Company Accounting Oversight Board(the“PCAOB”)recently,our securities maybe prohibited from trading if our auditor cannot be fully inspected.On December 16,2021,the PCAOB issued its determination that the PCAOB is unable to inspect orinvestigate completely PCAOB-registered public accounting firms headquartered inmainland China and in Hong Kong,because of positions taken by PRC authorities inthose jurisdictions,and the PCAOB included in the report of its determination a listof the accounting firms that are headquartered in mainland China or Hong Kong.Ourauditor,TPS Thayer,LLC,an independent registered public accounting firmheadquartered in the United States with no branches or offices outside the United2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874137/000121390023002066/ff12023_fdtech.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874137/000121390023002066/ff12023_fdtech.htm6/264States,was not included in the determinations made by the PCAOB on December 16,2021.Our auditor is currently subject to PCAOB inspections and has been inspected bythe PCAOB on a regular basis.On August 26,2022,the China Securities RegulatoryCommission(the“CSRC”),the Ministry of Finance of the PRC(the“MOF”),and thePCAOB signed a Statement of Protocol(the“Protocol”)to allow the PCAOB to inspectand investigate completely registered public accounting firms headquartered inmainland China and Hong Kong,consistent with the Holding Foreign CompaniesAccountable Act(the“HFCA Act”),and the PCAOB will be required to reassess itsdeterminations by the end of 2022.Pursuant to the fact sheet with respect to theProtocol disclosed by the SEC,the PCAOB shall have independent discretion to selectany issuer audits for inspection or investigation and has the unfettered ability totransfer information to the SEC.On December 15,2022,the PCAOB Board determinedthat the PCAOB was able to secure complete access to inspect and investigateregistered public accounting firms headquartered in mainland China and Hong Kong andvoted to vacate its previous determinations to the contrary.However,should PRCauthorities obstruct or otherwise fail to facilitate the PCAOBs access in thefuture,the PCAOB Board will consider the need to issue a new determination.Notwithstanding the foregoing,in the event it is later determined that the PCAOB isunable to inspect or investigate completely our auditor because of a position takenby an authority in a foreign jurisdiction,then such lack of inspection could causeour securities to be delisted from the stock exchange.See“Risk Factors Risks Relatedto Doing Business in China Our ordinary shares may be delisted under the HFCA Act if the PCAOB isunable to inspect auditors who are located in China.The delisting of our ordinary shares,or thethreat of their being delisted,may materially and adversely affect the value of your investment.Furthermore,on June 22,2021,the U.S.Senate passed the Accelerating Holding Foreign CompaniesAccountable Act,which,if enacted,would amend the HFCA Act and require the SEC to prohibit anissuers securities from trading on any U.S.stock exchanges if its auditor is not subject to PCAOBinspections for two consecutive years instead of three,reducing the time before our ordinary sharesmay be prohibited from trading or delisted”on page 21.Per Share TotalPublic offering price$Underwriting fees and discounts(1)(2)$Proceeds to us,before expenses$_(1)Represents underwriting discount equal to 7%per share(or$per share),which is theunderwriting discount we have agreed to pay on investors in this offering introduced by theunderwriter.(2)Does not include a non-accountable expense allowance equal to 1%of the gross proceeds ofthis offering,payable to the underwriter,or the reimbursement of certain expenses of theunderwriter.We have also agreed to issue warrants to the underwriter to purchase a number ofordinary shares equal to three percent(3%)of the total number of shares sold in thisoffering at an exercise price equal to one hundred twenty-five percent(125%)of the publicoffering price of the shares sold in this offering.For a description of the other terms ofcompensation to be received by the underwriter,see“Underwriting”beginning on page 162.We have granted a 45-day option to the underwriter to purchase up to an additional 525,000ordinary shares,solely to cover over-allotments,if any.Neither the U.S.Securities and Exchange Commission(the“SEC”)nor any otherregulatory body has approved or disapproved of these securities or passed upon theaccuracy or adequacy of this prospectus.Any representation to the contrary is acriminal offense.The underwriter expects to deliver the ordinary shares to purchasers against payment on orabout,2023.Sole Book-Running ManagerAegis Capital Corp.The date of this prospectus is,2023.2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874137/000121390023002066/ff12023_fdtech.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874137/000121390023002066/ff12023_fdtech.htm7/264Table of ContentsTABLE OF CONTENTS PAGEABOUT THIS PROSPECTUS iiPROSPECTUS SUMMARY 1RISK FACTORS 21CAUTIONARY NOTE REGARDING FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS 66USE OF PROCEEDS 68DIVIDEND POLICY 69CAPITALIZATION 70DILUTION 71ENFORCEABILITY OF CIVIL LIABILITIES 72CORPORATE HISTORY AND STRUCTURE 74MANAGEMENTS DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION ANDRESULTS OF OPERATIONS 77INDUSTRY 88OUR BUSINESS 95REGULATION 111MANAGEMENT 133PRINCIPAL SHAREHOLDERS 139RELATED PARTY TRANSACTIONS 140DESCRIPTION OF SHARE CAPITAL 141SHARES ELIGIBLE FOR FUTURE SALE 155TAXATION 156UNDERWRITING 162EXPENSES OF THIS OFFERING 171LEGAL MATTERS 172EXPERTS 172WHERE YOU CAN FIND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION 172INDEX TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS F-1You should rely only on the information contained in this prospectus.We and theunderwriter have not authorized anyone to provide you with information different fromwhat is contained in this prospectus or in any related free writing prospectus.Weare offering to sell securities only in jurisdictions where the offer or sale ispermitted.The information contained in this prospectus is accurate only as of thedate on the front of this prospectus,regardless of the time of delivery of thisprospectus or any sale of the securities.For investors outside of the United States of America(the“United States”orthe“U.S.”):Neither we nor the underwriter will permit the offering or possessionor distribution of this prospectus in any jurisdiction,other than the United States,where action for that purpose is required.Persons outside of the United States whocome into possession of this prospectus must observe any restrictions relating to theoffering of our Shares and the distribution of this prospectus outside of theUnited States.i2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874137/000121390023002066/ff12023_fdtech.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874137/000121390023002066/ff12023_fdtech.htm8/264Table of ContentsABOUT THIS PROSPECTUSUnless otherwise indicated,in this prospectus,the following terms shall have themeaning set out below:“Aifendan Platform”,or“Platform”Our Aifendan Platform,accessible through unique QuickResponse(“QR”)codes,is an interactive system whereindividual consumers purchase products and/or servicesfrom merchants in our focused industries throughfinancing services provided by financial institutions.“Beijing Xunyi”Beijing Xunyi Technology Co.,Ltd.,a limited liabilitycompany organized under the laws of China,97.09%equityinterest of which is currently owned by Shanghai Fendanand the remaining 2.91%owned by WFOE.“China”or the“PRC”The Peoples Republic of China,and the term“Chinese”has a correlative meaning for the purposesof this prospectus only.“Code”The Internal Revenue Code of 1986,as amended.“Exchange Act”The Securities Exchange Act of 1934,as amended.“Fendan”FD Technology Inc.,an exempted holding companyincorporated under the laws of Cayman Islands.“Focused Industries”(i)wedding industry,including full-service weddingvenues(one-stop wedding services offering weddingvenues,wedding planning,makeup,wedding video andphotography,flowers,guest hotels and other weddingrelated services)and pre-wedding photography;(ii)continuing education industry;and(3)family healthcareindustry,especially in the realm of postpartum care.“HK Fendan”FD Technology Limited,a limited company organized underthe laws of Hong Kong and a wholly owned subsidiary ofFendan.“Hong Kong”The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of thePeoples Republic of China.“Macau”The Macao Special Administrative Region of the PeoplesRepublic of China.“mainland China”The Peoples Republic of Mainland China,excludingTaiwan,Hong Kong and Macau for the purpose of thisprospectus.“Nasdaq”Nasdaq Stock Market LLC“ordinary shares”Our ordinary shares,par value$0.000001 per share.“PCAOB”The Public Company Accounting Oversight Board.“PRC Subsidiaries”Collectively,Qingdao Zecan Information Technology Co.,Ltd.,Shanghai Fendan Information Technology Co.,Ltd.and its subsidiary Beijing Xunyi Technology Co.,Ltd.“RMB”,“CNY”,“Chinese Yuan”or“Renminbi”Legal currency of mainland China.“SEC”The United States Securities and Exchange Commission.“Securities Act”The Securities Act of 1933,as amended.“Shanghai Fendan”Shanghai Fendan Information Technology Co.,Ltd.,alimited liability company organized under the laws ofChina and a previous variable interest entity(“VIE”),which became a wholly-owned subsidiary of WFOE onOctober 12,2021.“US”,“U.S.”or“USA”The United States of America.ii2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874137/000121390023002066/ff12023_fdtech.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874137/000121390023002066/ff12023_fdtech.htm9/264Table of Contents“US$,”“U.S.dollars,”“$,”and“dollars”Legal currency of the United States.“variable interestentity”or“VIE”Our variable interest entity,Shanghai FendanInformation Technology Co.,Ltd.,prior to October 12,2021,which became a wholly-owned subsidiary of QingdaoZecan on October 12,2021.“VIE Agreements”A series of agreements previously entered into amongWFOE,Shanghai Fendan and its shareholders designed toallow Fendan,as the primary beneficiary of the VIE foraccounting purposes,to consolidate the financialstatements of the VIE under U.S.GAAP.These agreementswere terminated on October 12,2021.“we,”“us,”“our,”“our company,”“theCompany”All references to“we,”“us,”“our,”“ourcompany,”“the Company”or similar terms used in thisprospectus refer to FD Technology Inc.,a Cayman Islandsexempted holding company,and its consolidatedsubsidiaries,i.e.,HK Fendan and the PRC Subsidiaries,unless the context otherwise indicates.“WFOE”or“QingdaoZecan”Qingdao Zecan Information Technology Co.,Ltd.,alimited liability company organized under the laws ofChina and a wholly-owned subsidiary of HK Fendan.Our reporting currency is the US$.The functional currency of our entities formedin China is the RMB.The functional currency of our entities incorporated inHong Kong is the Hong Kong Dollar(“HKD”).This registration statement containsconversion of certain RMB amounts into U.S.dollar amounts at specified rates solelyfor the convenience of the reader.The conversion of RMB into U.S.dollars in thisprospectus is based on the exchange rate set forth in the H.10 statistical release ofthe Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.Unless otherwise noted,alltranslations from RMB to U.S.dollars and from U.S.dollars to RMB in this prospectusare made at the rate as of June 30,2022,that is,RMB 6.6981 to US$1.00.We make norepresentation that any RMB or U.S.dollar amounts could have been,or could be,converted into U.S.dollars or RMB,as the case may be,at any particular rate,or atall.The PRC government imposes control over its foreign currency reserves in partthrough direct regulation of the conversion of RMB into foreign exchange.Numerical figures included in this registration statement may be subject torounding adjustments.Accordingly,numerical figures shown as totals in varioustables may not be arithmetic aggregations of the figures that precede them.For the sake of clarity,this prospectus follows the English naming convention offirst name followed by last name,regardless of whether an individuals name isChinese or English.For example,the name of our Chairman will be presented as“Chunjie Xu”,even though,in Chinese,Mr.Xus name is presented as“XuChunjie”.Our fiscal year end is December 31.References to a particular“fiscal year”are to our fiscal year ended December 31 of that calendar year.Our auditedconsolidated financial statements have been prepared in accordance with the generallyaccepted accounting principles in the United States(the“U.S.GAAP”).Unless expressly indicated herein to the contrary,all references to shareamounts in this prospectus give retroactive effect to a 100 for 1 share subdivisionwhich was effected on December 8,2022.Except where indicated or where the context otherwise requires,all informationin this prospectus assumes no exercise by the underwriter of their over-allotmentoption.We obtained the industry,market and competitive position data in this prospectusfrom our own internal estimates,surveys,and research as well as from publiclyavailable information,industry and general publications and research,surveys andstudies conducted by third parties,including,but not limited to,an industry report(“Euromonitor Report”)issued in June 2021 that was commissioned by us and preparedby Euromonitor International Limited,a third-party industry research firm,toprovide information regarding our industry and market position in China.Theinformation disclosed in the Euromonitor Report reflects estimates of marketconditions based on publicly available sources and trade opinion surveys,and isprepared primarily as a market research tool.References to Euromonitor InternationalLimited should not be considered as the opinion of Euromonitor International Limitedas to the value of any security or the advisability of investing in the Company.Industryiii2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874137/000121390023002066/ff12023_fdtech.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874137/000121390023002066/ff12023_fdtech.htm10/264Table of Contentspublications,research,surveys,studies and forecasts generally state that theinformation they contain has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable,butthat the accuracy and completeness of such information is not guaranteed.Forecastsand other forward-looking information obtained from these sources are subject to thesame qualifications and uncertainties as the other forward-looking statements in thisprospectus,and to risks due to a variety of factors,including those described under“Risk Factors.”These and other factors could cause results to differ materiallyfrom those expressed in these forecasts and other forward-looking information.We have proprietary rights to trademarks used in this prospectus that areimportant to our business,many of which are registered under applicable intellectualproperty laws.Solely for convenience,the trademarks,service marks and trade namesreferred to in this prospectus are without the,and other similar symbols,butsuch references are not intended to indicate,in any way,that we will not assert,tothe fullest extent under applicable law,our rights or the rights of the applicablelicensors to these trademarks,service marks and trade names.This prospectus may contain additional trademarks,service marks and trade namesof others.All trademarks,service marks and trade names appearing in this prospectusare,to our knowledge,the property of their respective owners.We do not intend ouruse or display of other companies trademarks,service marks or trade names to implya relationship with,or endorsement or sponsorship of us by,any other person.iv2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874137/000121390023002066/ff12023_fdtech.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874137/000121390023002066/ff12023_fdtech.htm11/264Table of ContentsPROSPECTUS SUMMARYInvestors are cautioned that you are purchasing ordinary shares ofour Cayman Islands holding company in this initial public offeringinstead of purchasing equity securities of our subsidiaries that havebusiness operations in China.This corporate structure involves uniquerisks.This summary highlights certain information contained elsewhere in thisprospectus.This summary does not contain all of the information you shouldconsider before buying shares in this offering.You should read the entireprospectus carefully,including our financial statements and related notes and therisks described under“Risk Factors.”This summary contains forward-lookingstatements that involve risks and uncertainties,such as statements about ourplans,objectives,expectations,assumptions or future events.These statementsinvolve estimates,assumptions,known and unknown risks,uncertainties and otherfactors that could cause actual results to differ materially from any futureresults,performances or achievements expressed or implied by the forward-lookingstatements.See“Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements.”Allreferences to“we,”“us,”“our,”“our company,”“the Company”or similarterms used in this prospectus refer to FD Technology Inc.,a Cayman Islandsexempted company,and its consolidated subsidiaries,including HK Fendan,and PRCSubsidiaries,unless the context otherwise indicates.OverviewWe are a holding company incorporated as an exempted company under the laws ofthe Cayman Islands.As a holding company with no material operations of our own,weconduct substantially all of our operations through our operating entitiesestablished in the PRC,primarily Shanghai Fendan.We provide marketing,intermediary and technology services to customers whichare merchants and financial institutions primarily servicing certain FocusedIndustries,including(i)wedding industry,such as full-service wedding venues(one-stop wedding services offering wedding venues,wedding planning,makeup,wedding video and photography,flowers,guest hotels and other wedding relatedservices)and pre-wedding photography;(ii)continuing education industry;and(3)family healthcare industry,especially in the realm of postpartum care.Our service portfolio is composed of(1)intermediary services through ourAifendan Platform an interactive transaction platform facilitating transactionsamong individual consumers,merchants and financial institutions in the FocusedIndustries(the“Intermediary Services”);(2)marketing and promotion services(collectively,“Marketing Services”),including but not limited to,advertisementdesign,production and distribution,marketing and promotion of products and/orservices,and customer acquisition;and(3)system and technology services,including the development,maintenance and upgrade of business management systemand related software,such as enterprise resource planning(“ERP”)and software asa service(“SaaS”)systems,and the corresponding technology services and supports(collectively,the“Technology Services”).Consumers,especially those between the ages of 20 40 who are at the stagein their lives where marriage and career development are at the forefront,oftenhave financing needs to support their plans for weddings,continuing education andfamily health-related matters.Our Aifendan Platform,launched in July 2016,accessible by individual consumers through invitation from merchants via scanningunique QR codes,is an interactive system where the individual consumers areoffered a“Purchase before Payment”option to purchase products and/or servicesnow from merchants utilizing our services and then make installment payments laterthrough financing services provided by our cooperating financial institutions.Asof September 30,2022,we had approximately 218,210 registered consumers(whichconstitute all the consumers registering on our Aifendan Platform,of whichapproximately 52%have completed transactions with us and approximately 48%whohave not conducted or completed any transactions with us)and more than 3,850registered merchants(which constitute all the merchants registering on ourAifendan Platform,of which 57%have conducted transactions through us andapproximately 43%have not conducted any transactions through us)on our AifendanPlatform,and have established collaboration with 12 financial institutions,including one consumer finance company,two trust companies,five commercialfactoring companies,and four micro-lending companies.Our customers include(i)merchants primarily providing wedding,continuingeducation and family healthcare services,and(ii)financial institutions,including trust companies,commercial factoring companies,micro-lending companiesand consumer finance companies,covering most developed areas of China,such asBeijing,Shanghai,Hangzhou,Nanjing,Guangzhou,Shenzhen,Tianjin,Hebei provinceand the southwest area of China.We seek to expand our customer base intoadditional second-tier cities of China in 2022,and third-tier and fourth-tiercities of China from 2023.2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874137/000121390023002066/ff12023_fdtech.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874137/000121390023002066/ff12023_fdtech.htm12/26412023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874137/000121390023002066/ff12023_fdtech.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874137/000121390023002066/ff12023_fdtech.htm13/264Table of ContentsOur EcosystemCustomer acquisition is essential for all businesses in terms of forming asolid client base.Upon acquiring consumers,how to conclude the sales contractwith customers which lead to the ultimate payment by the consumers,is another keyelement in securing the transaction.Upon contract execution and payment,how toperform the contracts to realize the goals of all contracted parties is also anindispensable element for a successful transaction.Our ecosystem integrates ourservices with those key elements by providing Intermediary Services,MarketingServices,and Technology Services to our customers.Our Intermediary Services,facilitating the transactions among merchants,individual consumers and financial institutions in the Focused Industries,arebeneficial to all participants in our ecosystem consumers,merchants andfinancial institutions.Consumers will receive financial support through asimplified process(such as less loan application documents,and faster loanapplication and approval process,usually within 20 minutes)at low or no costs andhave access to additional discounts,rewards or benefits which are not otherwiseavailable outside of our Aifendan Platform.For merchants,our services enable themto receive full payment of services from financial institutions upon execution ofloan agreements between financial institutions and individual consumers through ourAifendan Platform which we believe will greatly improve such merchants cash flowand liquidity as compared with their traditional payment terms whereby they have tocollect payments over a long period time.When it comes to financial institutions,we connect them with merchants and individual consumers,who are not typically thetarget customers of large financial institutions.We believe this significantlyexpands their customer outreach and reduces their customer acquisition costs sinceit is not cost effective for financial institutions to approach retail consumers ona regular basis to market their services.Our Marketing Services are designed in response to our customers demand forcustomer acquisition.Locating and identifying consumers efficiently,effectivelyand economically is only the first step.Locking up the identified consumers,minimizing marketing costs,and relieving consumers concerns on product andservice quality and solvency of the merchants,are the next inevitable steps to asuccessful transaction.Customer acquisition can be time consuming and costly.Forexample,it is costly and impracticable for financial institutions to approachretail consumers in need of financing.Our Marketing Services aim to address thepain points of our customers in customer acquisition and minimize their marketingcosts.The Technology Services we offer to our customers are aimed at optimizing theiroperating systems.The Focused Industries in our ecosystem are correlative,covering major largeamount spending of young couples at various stages of their lives and careers.Consumers in need of wedding services may also need postpartum care services atsome point of their lives,or continuing education services when they are in needof higher education or trainings for career moves,leading to utilization ofservices provided by our merchant customers and financing services provided by thematched financial institutions on our Aifendan Platform,which will not only reducethe marketing costs for both our customers and us,but also offer convenience andbenefits to consumers and enhance consumer loyalty.Our Revenue ModelOur revenue consists of(1)transaction facilitation fees for IntermediaryServices received from both merchants and financial institutions(“TransactionFacilitation Fees”);(2)technology service fees from providing TechnologyServices(“Technology Services Fees”);and(3)marketing service fees fromproviding Marketing Services(“Marketing Services Fees”).For the six months endedJune 30,2022 and the fiscal years ended December 31,2021 and 2020,we recognizedapproximately$2,868,868,$9,558,356 and$7,485,730,respectively,in revenues,ofwhich Transaction Facilitation Fees accounted for 50.0%,53.2%and 81.8%,respectively,Technology Services Fees accounted for 36.1%,38.8%and 16.7%,respectively,and Marketing Services Fees accounted for 13.9%,8.0%and 1.5%,respectively,of our total revenues.Transaction Facilitation Fees.It refers to the fees we collect from merchantsand financial institutions for the Intermediary Services we offer to them on ourAifendan Platform.For the financial institutions,such fees also include theMarketing Services we offer to them.Specifically,we charge:(1)merchants a fee in the range of approximately 8%-10.8%of the totaltransaction value,which contributed in the aggregate$791,957,$3,609,427and$4,300,038,respectively,to our total revenues,accounting forapproximately 27.6%,37.8%and 56.7%,respectively,of our total revenues,for the six months ended June 30,2022 and the fiscal years endedDecember 31,2021 and 2020;and2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874137/000121390023002066/ff12023_fdtech.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874137/000121390023002066/ff12023_fdtech.htm14/26422023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874137/000121390023002066/ff12023_fdtech.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874137/000121390023002066/ff12023_fdtech.htm15/264Table of Contents(2)financial institutions a fee in the range of approximately 21%-38%offinancing costs and interests,which contributed in the aggregate$643,439,$1,471,530 and$1,823,170,respectively,to our total revenues,accounting for approximately 22.4%,15.4%and 27.7%,respectively,of ourtotal revenues,for the six months ended June 30,2022 and thefiscal years ended December 31,2021 and 2020.Technology Services Fees.In exchange for our customized Technology Services,including but not limited to,development,maintenance and upgrade of businessmanagement system and related software,such as ERP(enterprise resource planning)and SaaS(software as a service)systems,and related technology services andsupport,we charge our customers either fixed fees on a project basis or monthlyfees for maintenance and support or a combination of both.Marketing Services Fees.We provide Marketing Services to merchants andfinancial institutions,including but not limited to,advertisement design,production and distribution,marketing and promotion of products and/or servicesand customer acquisition.In exchange for such services,we charge merchants feesthat are either(1)a certain percentage of the total transaction value or purchaseamount of certain consumer acquired by merchants through our Marketing Services,usually 8%,or(2)fixed monthly or quarterly fees,usually at an average ofRMB3,000(approximately$448)per month.We do not,however,collect separateMarketing Services Fees from financial institutions and our compensation forproviding Marketing Services to financial institutions is integrated in theTransaction Facilitation Fees we charge from them.Our StrengthsWe believe that the following strengths have contributed,and will continue tocontribute,to our growth and are differentiating us from our competitors:Proprietary interactive system facilitating transactions among individualconsumers,merchants and financial institutions in Focused Industries.New business model with less competitive pressure and low costs.Strong marketing and promotion capacity.Experienced and committed management team.A large number of merchants on our Aifendan Platform.Our StrategiesWe intend to grow our business by pursuing the following key strategies:Strengthen our industry position by gaining additional market share.Expand our sales network.Enhance our ability to attract,incentivize and retain talentedprofessionals.Expand our business through acquisitions,strategic partnerships and jointventures.Our Market OpportunitiesThe wedding services provided in a single transaction,may take more thansix months to complete,and the continuing education services,especially diploma-oriented training programs,usually continue for a period of 2-3 years.Diploma-oriented continuing education is targeted at people with lower educationalattainment who would like to earn higher education diplomas or degrees,such asassociates or bachelors degrees.Both services involve large-amount and long-term spending.Young people aged 20-40 who either do not have sufficient savings tosupport such spending are typically good candidate for the installment paymentservices,such as those offered by the financial institutions on our AifendanPlatform.32023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874137/000121390023002066/ff12023_fdtech.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874137/000121390023002066/ff12023_fdtech.htm16/264Table of ContentsAccording to Euromonitor Report,the average spending on a wedding in China wasRMB223,000($33,293)in 2019,which was 3.5 times that of five years earlier.Therewere approximately 6.0%of consumers purchasing such services from merchantsthrough installment payments in 2016.This rate increased to 10.0%in 2020,and isexpected to reach 16.0%in 2025.According to Euromonitor Report,young people at ages of 20-40 constitutedapproximately 30%of the total population in China during 2016-2019.Generation Zand Millennials will become the dominant global generations in the coming years,bringing to the market a new set of values and expectations.These combined factorsare driving a clear,rapid,and accelerating growth and influx of new customers tothe wedding,continuing education and healthcare industries.In China,totalexpenditures on education rose from RMB3,889 billion($581 billion)in 2016 to morethan RMB5,000 billion($746 billion)in 2019.Latest data showed Chinas totaleducation expenditures reached RMB5,301 billion($791 billion)in 2020,an increaseof 5.7%compared with 2019.To further stabilize employment and fill technical jobvacancies,the Chinese government has issued policies encouraging working people toparticipate in continuing and lifelong education.For instance,the InterimMeasures for Individual Income Tax Special Additional Deductions,issued by the PRCState Council in December 2018,provided an additional income tax deduction fortaxpayers who receive diploma-oriented continuing education domestically.Accordingto data from the Ministry of Education,adult enrollment in postsecondaryinstitutions reached 3.6 million in 2020,an increase of 20.4%from 2019.As thegovernment continues to implement support policies for continuing education,coupled with the rising interests of lifelong education by the younger generation,it is expected that the educational service market will experience stableexpansion.In terms of the diploma-oriented continuing education as a whole,in2016,there were approximately 45.0%of consumers in China purchasing diploma-oriented continuing education services from merchants through installment payments.This rate increased to approximately 60.0%in 2020,and is expected to reachapproximately 70.0%in 2025.As of the first half of 2019,there were more than 7,000 postpartum carecenters in China.The postpartum care market was approximately RMB19 billion($3billion)in 2020 and is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate(“CAGR”)of around 15.0%over the next 3 to 5 years.Our Corporate History and StructureFD Technology Inc.(“Fendan”)is a Cayman Islands exempted companyincorporated on October 10,2019.Structured as a holding company with no materialoperations,Fendan conducts its operations in China through its PRC Subsidiaries,primarily Shanghai Fendan.Shanghai Fendan started its business in 2016.FD Technology Limited(“HK Fendan”),incorporated on November 1,2019 underthe laws of Hong Kong,is our wholly-owned subsidiary in Hong Kong and a holdingcompany without any business operations,which,in turn,wholly owns all of theequity interest of Qingdao Zecan Information Technology Co.,Ltd.(“Qingdao Zecan”or the“WFOE”),a wholly foreign-owned enterprise incorporated on June 4,2021under the laws of China.On October 12,2021,Qingdao Zecan entered into share transfer agreements withall the shareholders of Shanghai Fendan to acquire all the equity interests ofShanghai Fendan for no consideration.The transaction was closed on October 12,2021,resulting in Shanghai Fendan becoming our wholly-owned subsidiary.Shanghai Fendan,our wholly-owned subsidiary,incorporated on July 13,2016under the laws of China with a registered capital of approximately RMB10 millionafter several capital increases,was previously a variable interest entity of theCompany.Fendan,through Qingdao Zecan,entered into a series of contractualagreements,including Exclusive Business Cooperation Agreement,Exclusive OptionAgreement,Share Pledge Agreement,and Power of Attorney,with Shanghai Fendan andits shareholders,which agreements were designed to allow Fendan,as the primarybeneficiary for accounting purpose,to consolidate the financial statements ofShanghai Fendan under U.S.GAAP.There is no foreign investment restriction on ourcurrent business in China but we entered into the VIE arrangement to preserve theoption to explore potential value-added telecommunications services that may becomplementary to our current business in the future,which are subject torestrictions on foreign ownership and investment.Considering that the VIEarrangements may not be as effective as direct ownership in providing Fendan withcontrol over Shanghai Fendan,and that we currently have no specific business plansto provide value-added telecommunications services,we dissolved our VIE structurein October 2021.We do not believe the termination of the VIE arrangements willhave any material impact on results of operations or business prospects.42023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874137/000121390023002066/ff12023_fdtech.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874137/000121390023002066/ff12023_fdtech.htm17/264Table of ContentsShanghai Aifendan E-Commerce Co.,Ltd.(“Shanghai Aifendan”)was a formerwholly-owned subsidiary of Shanghai Fendan with no assets or operations,the 100%equity interests of which was transferred to an unrelated third party for noconsideration on October 24,2021.Beijing Xunyi was incorporated under the laws of China on April 29,2021,witha registered capital of approximately RMB10 million,97.09%equity interestcurrently owned by Shanghai Fendan,with the remaining 2.91%owned by WFOE.BeijingXunyi is authorized to provide technology services,and marketing and promotionservices.As of the date of this prospectus,it has not commenced businessoperations.Prior to the dissolution of our VIE structure,Shanghai Fendan and itssubsidiaries contributed to 100%of our consolidated revenue and accounted for 100%of our consolidated total assets and liabilities for the six months ended June 30,2022 and the fiscal years ended December 31,2021 and 2020,and there was noreconciliation performed between the financial position,cash flows and results ofoperations of Shanghai Fendan and its subsidiaries and us.The following financialinformation of the Parent,WFOE and Shanghai Fendan and its subsidiaries in thecondensed consolidating schedule was included in the consolidated financialstatements:Condensed Consolidating Schedule Parent WFOE ShanghaiFendan andsubsidiaries Elimination Consolidated Six MonthsEndedJune 30,2022 Six MonthsEndedJune 30,2022 Six Months EndedJune 30,2022 Six Months Ended June 30,2022(unaudited)(unaudited)(unaudited)Revenue$2,868,868$2,868,868 Net profit$(512)$438,026$437,514 Equity in earnings ofsubsidiaries andprior VIE$438,026$(438,026)$Net cash(used in)provided by operatingactivities$1,463,304$1,463,304 Net cash provided by(used in)investingactivities$(2,932,722)$(2,932,722)Net cash(used in)provided by financingactivities$(645,290)$(645,290)Net increase in cash andcash equivalents$(2,396,503)$(2,396,503)Parent WFOE Shanghai Fendan and subsidiaries Elimination Con Period FromJanuary 1,2021 to October 12,2021 Period From October 13,2021 to December 31,2021 Period FromJanuary 1,2021 to October 12,2021 Period From October 13,2021 to December 31,2021 Period FromJanuary 1,2021 to October 12,2021 Period From October 13,2021 to December 31,2021 FoFisEDec(unaudited)(unaudited)(unaudited)(unaudited)(unaudited)(unaudited)Revenue$6,038,616$3,519,740 9Net profit$2,301,840$1,466,834 3Equity inearnings ofsubsidiariesand priorVIE 2,301,840 1,466,834$(3,768,674)Net cash(usedin)providedby operatingactivities$(209,871)$640,943 Net cashprovided by(used in)investingactivities$867,340$(26,692)Net cash(used$(513,055)$463,588 2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874137/000121390023002066/ff12023_fdtech.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874137/000121390023002066/ff12023_fdtech.htm18/264in)providedby financingactivitiesNet increasein cash andcashequivalents$218,915$1,158,105 152023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874137/000121390023002066/ff12023_fdtech.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874137/000121390023002066/ff12023_fdtech.htm19/264Table of ContentsThe following chart shows our corporate structure as of the date of thisprospectus.Summary of Significant Risks Affecting Our CompanyOur business is subject to multiple risks and uncertainties,as more fullydescribed in“Risk Factors”and elsewhere in this prospectus.We urge you to read“Risk Factors”and this prospectus in full.Our significant risks are summarizedas follows:Risks Related to Doing Business in ChinaWe are subject to risks and uncertainties relating to doing business in Chinain general,including,but are not limited to,the following:Our ordinary shares may be delisted under the HFCA Act if the PCAOB isunable to inspect auditors who are located in China.The delisting of ourordinary shares,or the threat of their being delisted,may materially andadversely affect the value of your investment.Furthermore,on June 22,2021,the U.S.Senate passed the Accelerating Holding Foreign CompaniesAccountable Act,which,if enacted,would amend the HFCA Act and requirethe SEC to prohibit an issuers securities from trading on any U.S.stockexchanges if its auditor is not subject to PCAOB inspections for twoconsecutive years instead of three,reducing the time before our ordinaryshares may be prohibited from trading or delisted.On December 16,2021,the PCAOB issued its determination that the PCAOB is unable to inspect orinvestigate completely PCAOB-registered public accounting firmsheadquartered in mainland62023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874137/000121390023002066/ff12023_fdtech.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874137/000121390023002066/ff12023_fdtech.htm20/264Table of ContentsChina and in Hong Kong,because of positions taken by PRC authorities inthose jurisdictions,and the PCAOB included in the report of itsdetermination a list of the accounting firms that are headquartered inmainland China or Hong Kong.Our auditor,TPS Thayer,LLC,an independentregistered public accounting firm headquartered in the United States withno branches or offices outside the United States,was not included in thedeterminations made by the PCAOB on December 16,2021.Our auditor iscurrently subject to PCAOB inspections and has been inspected by the PCAOBon a regular basis.On August 26,2022,CSRC,MOF,and the PCAOB signedthe Protocol to allow the PCAOB to inspect and investigate completelyregistered public accounting firms headquartered in mainland China andHong Kong,consistent with the HFCA Act,and the PCAOB will be required toreassess its determinations by the end of 2022.Pursuant to the fact sheetwith respect to the Protocol disclosed by the SEC,the PCAOB shall haveindependent discretion to select any issuer audits for inspection orinvestigation and has the unfettered ability to transfer information tothe SEC.On December 15,2022,the PCAOB Board determined that the PCAOBwas able to secure complete access to inspect and investigate registeredpublic accounting firms headquartered in mainland China and Hong Kong andvoted to vacate its previous determinations to the contrary.However,should PRC authorities obstruct or otherwise fail to facilitate thePCAOBs access in the future,the PCAOB Board will consider the need toissue a new determination.Notwithstanding the foregoing,in the event itis later determined that the PCAOB is unable to inspect or investigatecompletely our auditor because of a position taken by an authority in aforeign jurisdiction,then such lack of inspection could cause oursecurities to be delisted from the stock exchange.See“Risk Factors Risks Related to Doing Business in China Our ordinary shares may bedelisted under the HFCA Act if the PCAOB is unable to inspect auditors whoare located in China.The delisting of our ordinary shares,or the threatof their being delisted,may materially and adversely affect the value ofyour investment.Furthermore,on June 22,2021,the U.S.Senate passed theAccelerating Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act,which,if enacted,would amend the HFCA Act and require the SEC to prohibit an issuerssecurities from trading on any U.S.stock exchanges if its auditor is notsubject to PCAOB inspections for two consecutive years instead of three,reducing the time before our ordinary shares may be prohibited fromtrading or delisted”beginning on page 21.The PRC government has significant oversight and discretion on the abilityof a China-based company to conduct its business,accept foreigninvestments or list on an U.S.or other foreign exchanges by enforcingexisting rules and regulation,adopting new ones,or changing relevantindustrial policies in a manner that may materially increase ourcompliance cost,change relevant industry landscape or otherwise causesignificant changes to our business operations in China,which couldresult in material and adverse changes in our operations and cause thevalue of our securities to significantly decline or be worthless.See“Risk Factors Risks Related to Doing Business in China The PRCgovernment has significant oversight and discretion on the ability of aChina-based company to conduct its business,accept foreign investments orlist on an U.S.or other foreign exchanges by enforcing existing rules andregulation,adopting new ones,or changing relevant industrial policies ina manner that may materially increase our compliance cost,change relevantindustry landscape or otherwise cause significant changes to our businessoperations in China,which could result in material and adverse changes inour operations and cause the value of our securities to significantlydecline or be worthless”beginning on page 23.The PRC government exerts substantial influence over the manner in whichwe conduct our business activities.The PRC government may also interveneor influence our operations and this offering at any time,which couldresult in a material change in our operations and our ordinary sharescould decline in value or become worthless.See“Risk Factors RisksRelated to Doing Business in China The PRC government exertssubstantial influence over the manner in which we conduct our businessactivities.The PRC government may also intervene or influence ouroperations and this offering at any time,which could result in a materialchange in our operations and our ordinary shares could decline in value orbecome worthless”beginning on page 23;Changes in the political and economic policies of the PRC government or inrelations between China and the United States may materially and adverselyaffect our business,financial condition and results of operations and mayresult in our inability to sustain our growth and expansion strategies.See“Risk Factors Risks Related to Doing Business in China Changesin the political and economic2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874137/000121390023002066/ff12023_fdtech.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874137/000121390023002066/ff12023_fdtech.htm21/26472023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874137/000121390023002066/ff12023_fdtech.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874137/000121390023002066/ff12023_fdtech.htm22/264Table of Contentspolicies of the PRC government or in relations between China and theUnited States may materially and adversely affect our business,financialcondition and results of operations and may result in our inability tosustain our growth and expansion strategies”beginning on page 24.The rules and regulations in China can change quickly with little advancenotice and uncertainties in the interpretation and enforcement of PRClaws,rules and regulations could limit the legal protections available toyou and us.The Chinese government may intervene or influence ouroperations at any time,or may exert more control over offerings conductedoverseas and/or foreign investment in China-based issuers,which couldresult in a material change in our operations and/or the value of theordinary shares we are registering for sale.See“Risk Factors RisksRelated to Doing Business in China The rules and regulations in Chinacan change quickly with little advance notice and uncertainties in theinterpretation and enforcement of PRC laws,rules and regulations couldlimit the legal protections available to you and us”beginning on page25.On December 24,2021,the CSRC released the Administrative Provisions ofthe State Council Regarding the Overseas Issuance and Listing ofSecurities by Domestic Enterprises(Draft for Comments)(the“DraftAdministrative Provisions”)and the Measures for the Overseas Issuance ofSecurities and Listing Record-Filings by Domestic Enterprises(Draft forComments)(the“Draft Filing Measures,”collectively with the DraftAdministrative Provisions,the“Draft Rules Regarding OverseasListing”).The Draft Rules Regarding Overseas Listing lay out the filingregulation arrangement for both direct and indirect overseas listing,andclarify the determination criteria for indirect overseas listing inoverseas markets.Among other things,if a domestic enterprise intends toindirectly offer and list securities in an overseas market,the record-filing obligation is with a major operating entity incorporated in the PRCand such filing obligation shall be completed within three working daysafter the overseas listing application is submitted.The required filingmaterials for an initial public offering and listing shall include but notlimited to:regulatory opinions,record-filing,approval and otherdocuments issued by competent regulatory authorities of relevantindustries(if applicable);and security assessment opinion issued byrelevant regulatory authorities(if applicable).The Draft Rules RegardingOverseas Listing,if enacted,may subject us to additional compliancerequirement in the future.Any failure of us to fully comply with newregulatory requirements may significantly limit or completely hinder ourability to offer or continue to offer our ordinary shares,causesignificant disruption to our business operations,and severely damage ourreputation,which would materially and adversely affect our financialcondition and results of operations and cause our ordinary shares tosignificantly decline in value or become worthless.See“Risk Factors Risks Related to Doing Business in China The CSRC has released forpublic consultation the draft rules for China-based companies seeking toconduct initial public offerings in foreign markets.While such rules havenot yet gone into effect,the Chinese government may exert more oversightand control over offerings that are conducted overseas and foreigninvestment in China-based issuers,which could significantly limit orcompletely hinder our ability to offer or continue to offer our ordinaryshares to investors and could cause the value of our ordinary shares tosignificantly decline or become worthless”beginning on page 27.We may be liable for improper use or appropriation of personal informationprovided by our customers and individual consumers.See“Risk Factors Risks Related to Doing Business in China We may be liable for improperuse or appropriation of personal information provided by our customers andindividual consumers”beginning on page 28.We may be adversely affected by the complexity,uncertainties and changesin PRC regulation of internet industry.See“Risk Factors RisksRelated to Doing Business in China We may be adversely affected by thecomplexity,uncertainties and changes in PRC regulation of internetindustry”beginning on page 30.Regulation and censorship of information disseminated over the Internet inChina may adversely affect our business,and we may be liable for contentthat is displayed on our Aifendan Platform or Website.See“Risk Factors Risks Related to Doing Business in China Regulation and censorshipof information disseminated over the Internet in China may adverselyaffect our business,and we may be liable for content that is displayed onour Aifendan Platform or Website”beginning on page 31.82023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874137/000121390023002066/ff12023_fdtech.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874137/000121390023002066/ff12023_fdtech.htm23/264Table of Contents You may experience difficulties in effecting service of legal process,enforcing foreign judgments or bringing actions in China against us ormembers of our management team named in the prospectus based on foreignlaws.See“Risk Factors Risks Related to Doing Business in China Youmay experience difficulties in effecting service of legal process,enforcing foreign judgments or bringing actions in China against us ormembers of our management team named in the prospectus based on foreignlaws”beginning on page 32.PRC regulations relating to foreign exchange registration of overseasinvestment by mainland China residents may subject our mainland Chinaresident beneficial owners of our PRC Subsidiaries to liability orpenalties,limit our ability to inject capital into these PRCSubsidiaries,limit PRC Subsidiaries ability to increase theirregistered capital or distribute profits to us,or may otherwise adverselyaffect us.See“Risk Factors Risks Related to Doing Business in China PRC regulations relating to foreign exchange registration of overseasinvestment by mainland China residents may subject our mainland Chinaresident beneficial owners of our PRC Subsidiaries to liability orpenalties,limit our ability to inject capital into these PRCSubsidiaries,limit PRC Subsidiaries ability to increase theirregistered capital or distribute profits to us,or may otherwise adverselyaffect us”beginning on page 35.To the extent cash or assets in our business are in mainland China or HongKong or a PRC or Hong Kong entity,the funds or assets may not beavailable to fund operations or for other use outside of mainland China orHong Kong in the event of any interventions in or the imposition ofrestrictions and limitations on the ability of our company and oursubsidiaries by the PRC government to transfer cash or assets,which maymaterially and adversely affect our business,financial condition andresults of operations and may result in our inability to sustain ourgrowth and expansion strategies.Based on the opinion of our Hong Kongcounsel,Chang&Co.,as of the date of this prospectus,there are norestrictions imposed by the Hong Kong government on the foreign exchangeand the transfer of capital within,into and out of Hong Kong(includingfunds from Hong Kong to mainland China),except transfer of fundsinvolving money laundering and criminal activities.See“Risk Factors Risks Related to Doing Business in China To the extent cash or assetsin our business are in mainland China or Hong Kong or a PRC or Hong Kongentity,the funds or assets may not be available to fund operations or forother use outside of mainland China or Hong Kong in the event of anyinterventions in or the imposition of restrictions and limitations on theability of our company and our subsidiaries by the PRC government totransfer cash or assets,which may materially and adversely affect ourbusiness,financial condition and results of operations and may result inour inability to sustain our growth and expansion strategies”beginningon page 36.PRC regulation of loans to and direct investment in our PRC Subsidiariesby offshore holding companies and governmental control of currencyconversion may delay us from using the proceeds of this offering to makeloans or additional capital contributions to our PRC Subsidiaries,whichcould materially and adversely affect our liquidity and our ability tofund and expand our business.See“Risk Factors PRC regulation ofloans to and direct investment in our PRC Subsidiaries by offshore holdingcompanies and governmental control of currency conversion may delay usfrom using the proceeds of this offering to make loans or additionalcapital contributions to our PRC Subsidiaries,which could materially andadversely affect our liquidity and our ability to fund and expand ourbusiness”beginning on page 37.We may rely on dividends and other distributions on equity paid by our PRCSubsidiaries to fund any cash and financing requirements we may have,andthe PRC Subsidiaries restrictions on paying dividends or making otherpayments to us could restrict our ability to satisfy our liquidityrequirements and have a material and adverse effect on our ability toconduct our business.See“Risk Factors Risks Related to DoingBusiness in China We may rely on dividends and other distributions onequity paid by our PRC Subsidiaries to fund any cash and financingrequirements we may have,and the PRC Subsidiaries restrictions onpaying dividends or making other payments to us could restrict our abilityto satisfy our liquidity requirements and have a material and adverseeffect on our ability to conduct our business”beginning on page 38.We have identified a material weakness in our internal controls overfinancial reporting.If we do not adequately remediate this materialweakness,or if we experience additional material weaknesses in the future2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874137/000121390023002066/ff12023_fdtech.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874137/000121390023002066/ff12023_fdtech.htm24/264or otherwise fail to maintain effective internal controls,we may not beable to accurately or timely report our financial condition or results ofoperations,or comply with the accounting and92023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874137/000121390023002066/ff12023_fdtech.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874137/000121390023002066/ff12023_fdtech.htm25/264Table of Contentsreporting requirements applicable to public companies,which may adverselyaffect investor confidence in us and the market price of our shares.See“Risk Factors Risks Related to Doing Business in China We haveidentified a material weakness in our internal controls over financialreporting.If we do not adequately remediate this material weakness,or ifwe experience additional material weaknesses in the future or otherwisefail to maintain effective internal controls,we may not be able toaccurately or timely report our financial condition or results ofoperations,or comply with the accounting and reporting requirementsapplicable to public companies,which may adversely affect investorconfidence in us and the market price of our shares”beginning on page33.Risks Related to Our Business and IndustryRisks and uncertainties related to our business and industry include,but arenot limited to,the following:We are heavily dependent on our top customers.If we fail to acquire newcustomers or retain existing customers in a cost-effective manner,ourbusiness,financial condition and results of operations may be materiallyand adversely affected.See“Risk Factors Risks Related to OurBusiness and Industry We are heavily dependent on our top customers.Ifwe fail to acquire new customers or retain existing customers in a cost-effective manner,our business,financial condition and results ofoperations may be materially and adversely affected”beginning onpage 44.We rely on a limited number of financial institutions to fund thetransactions we facilitate on our Aifendan Platform and any adverse changein our relationships with such financial institutions may materially andadversely impact our business and results of operations.See“RiskFactors Risks Related to Our Business and Industry We rely on alimited number of financial institutions to fund the transactions wefacilitate on our Aifendan Platform and any adverse change in ourrelationships with such financial institutions may materially andadversely impact our business and results of operations”beginning onpage 45.Maintaining the trusted status of our ecosystem is critical to oursuccess,and any failure to do so could severely damage our reputation andbrand,which would have a material adverse effect on our business,financial condition and results of operations.See“Risk Factors RisksRelated to Our Business and Industry Maintaining the trusted status ofour ecosystem is critical to our success,and any failure to do so couldseverely damage our reputation and brand,which would have a materialadverse effect on our business,financial condition and results ofoperations”beginning on page 45.If our Intermediary Services fail to respond to the changes in individualconsumers spending habits and preferences,and the evolving needs of ourcustomers,including merchants and financial institutions,our financialresults and competitive position will be harmed.See“Risk Factors Risks Related to Our Business and Industry If our Intermediary Servicesfail to respond to the changes in individual consumers spending habitsand preferences,and the evolving needs of our customers,includingmerchants and financial institutions,our financial results andcompetitive position will be harmed”beginning on page 52.We may be subject to liability if private information that we receive isnot secure or if we violate privacy laws and regulations.See“RiskFactors Risks Related to Our Business and Industry We may be subjectto liability if private information that we receive is not secure or if weviolate privacy laws and regulations”beginning on page 48.We are subject to governmental regulations and other legal obligationsrelated to privacy,information security,and data protection,and anysecurity breaches,and our actual or perceived failure to comply with ourlegal obligations could harm our brand and business.See“Risk Factors Risks Related to Our Business and Industry We are subject togovernmental regulations and other legal obligations related to privacy,information security,and data protection,and any security breaches,andour actual or perceived failure to comply with our legal obligations couldharm our brand and business”beginning on page 50.Any significant cybersecurity incident or disruption of our informationtechnology systems or those of third-party partners could materiallydamage our relationships with our platform participants,including2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874137/000121390023002066/ff12023_fdtech.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874137/000121390023002066/ff12023_fdtech.htm26/264individual consumers,merchants and financial institutions and subject usto significant reputational,financial,legal and operation consequences.See“Risk Factors Risks Related to Our Business and102023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874137/000121390023002066/ff12023_fdtech.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874137/000121390023002066/ff12023_fdtech.htm27/264Table of ContentsIndustry Any significant cybersecurity incident or disruption of ourinformation technology systems or those of third-party partners couldmaterially damage our relationships with our platform participants,including individual consumers,merchants and financial institutions andsubject us to significant reputational,financial,legal and operationconsequences”beginning on page 51.Our business of facilitating transactions among consumers,merchants andfinancial institutions may constitute provision of intermediary service,and our agreements with these financial institutions may be deemed asintermediation contracts under the PRC Civil Code.See“Risk Factors Risks Related to Our Business and Industry Our business of facilitatingtransactions among consumers,merchants and financial institutions mayconstitute provision of intermediary service,and our agreements withthese financial institutions may be deemed as intermediation contractsunder the PRC Civil Code”beginning on page 52.We may be accused of infringing intellectual property rights of thirdparties and content restrictions of relevant laws.See“Risk Factors Risks Related to Our Business and Industry We may be accused ofinfringing intellectual property rights of third parties and contentrestrictions of relevant laws”beginning on page 55.We depend on key management as well as experienced and capable personnelgenerally,and any failure to attract,motivate and retain our staff couldseverely hinder our ability to maintain and grow our business.See“RiskFactors Risks Related to Our Business and Industry We depend on keymanagement as well as experienced and capable personnel generally,and anyfailure to attract,motivate and retain our staff could severely hinderour ability to maintain and grow our business”beginning on page 42.Risks Related to this Offering and Ownership of Ordinary Shares An active trading market for our ordinary shares or our ordinary sharesmay not develop and the trading price for our ordinary shares mayfluctuate significantly.See“Risk Factors Risks Related to thisOffering and Ownership of Ordinary Shares There is no active tradingmarket for our ordinary shares and there can be no assurance any marketwill develop or that the trading price will not decline below the pricepaid by investors”beginning on page 58.Nasdaq may apply additional and more stringent criteria for our initialand continued listing because we plan to have a small public offering andinsiders will hold a large portion of our listed securities.See“RiskFactors Risks Related to this Offering and Ownership of Ordinary Shares Nasdaq may apply additional and more stringent criteria for our initialand continued listing because we plan to have a small public offering andinsiders will hold a large portion of our listed securities”beginning onpage 58.The trading price of our ordinary shares may be volatile,which couldresult in substantial losses to investors.See“Risk Factors RisksRelated to this Offering and Ownership of Ordinary Shares The tradingprice of our ordinary shares may be volatile,which could result insubstantial losses to investors”beginning on page 59.Certain recent initial public offerings of companies with public floatscomparable to our anticipated public float have experienced extremevolatility that was seemingly unrelated to the underlying performance ofthe respective company.We may experience similar volatility,which maymake it difficult for prospective investors to assess the value of ourordinary shares.See“Risk Factors Risks Related to this Offering andOwnership of Ordinary Shares Certain recent initial public offerings ofcompanies with public floats comparable to our anticipated public floathave experienced extreme volatility that was seemingly unrelated to theunderlying performance of the respective company.We may experiencesimilar volatility,which may make it difficult for prospective investorsto assess the value of our ordinary shares”beginning on page 60.Because the initial public offering price is substantially higher than thepro forma net tangible book value per share,you will experience immediateand substantial dilution.See“Risk Factors Risks Related to thisOffering and Ownership of Ordinary Shares Because the initial publicoffering price is substantially higher than the pro forma net tangiblebook value per share,you will experience immediate and substantialdilution”beginning on page 61.112023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874137/000121390023002066/ff12023_fdtech.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874137/000121390023002066/ff12023_fdtech.htm28/264Table of Contents You may face difficulties in protecting your interests,and your abilityto protect your rights through U.S.courts may be limited,because we areincorporated under Cayman Islands law.See“Risk Factors Risks Relatedto this Offering and Ownership of Ordinary Shares You may facedifficulties in protecting your interests,and your ability to protectyour rights through U.S.courts may be limited,because we areincorporated under Cayman Islands law”beginning on page 62.Implications of the HFCA ActThe HFCA Act was enacted on December 18,2020.The HFCA Act states that if theSEC determines that an issuers audit reports issued by a registered publicaccounting firm have not been subject to inspection by the PCAOB for threeconsecutive years beginning in 2021,the SEC shall prohibit such issuerssecurities from being traded on a national securities exchange or in the over-the-counter trading market in the United States.On March 24,2021,the SEC adoptedinterim final rules relating to the implementation of certain disclosure anddocumentation requirements of the HFCA Act.An identified issuer will be requiredto comply with these rules if the SEC identifies it as having a“non-inspection”year under a process to be subsequently established by the SEC.In June 2021,theSenate passed the Accelerating Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act,which,ifsigned into law,would reduce the time period for the delisting of foreigncompanies under the HFCA Act to two consecutive years instead of three years.Ifour auditor cannot be inspected by the PCAOB for two consecutive years,the tradingof our securities on any U.S.national securities exchanges,as well as any over-the-counter trading in the U.S.,will be prohibited.On September 22,2021,thePCAOB adopted a final rule implementing the HFCA Act,which provides a frameworkfor the PCAOB to use when determining,as contemplated under the HFCA Act,whetherthe PCAOB is unable to inspect or investigate completely registered publicaccounting firms located in a foreign jurisdiction because of a position taken byone or more authorities in that jurisdiction.On December 2,2021,the SEC issuedamendments to finalize rules implementing the submission and disclosurerequirements in the HFCA Act.The rules apply to registrants that the SECidentifies as having filed an annual report with an audit report issued by aregistered public accounting firm that is located in a foreign jurisdiction andthat the PCAOB is unable to inspect or investigate completely because of a positiontaken by an authority in foreign jurisdictions.On December 16,2021,the PCAOBissued a report on its determinations that it is unable to inspect or investigatecompletely PCAOB-registered public accounting firms headquartered in mainland Chinaand in Hong Kong,because of positions taken by PRC authorities in thosejurisdictions.Our auditor,TPS Thayer,LLC,is headquartered in Sugar Land,Texas,with nobranches or offices outside of the United States.TPS Thayer,LLC is currentlysubject to PCAOB inspections under a regular basis and is not subject to thedeterminations as to the inability to inspect or investigate registered firmscompletely announced by the PCAOB on December 16,2021.On August 26,2022,CSRC,MOF,and the PCAOB signed the Protocol to allow the PCAOB to inspect andinvestigate completely registered public accounting firms headquartered in mainlandChina and Hong Kong,consistent with the HFCA Act,and the PCAOB will be requiredto reassess its determinations by the end of 2022.Pursuant to the fact sheet withrespect to the Protocol disclosed by the SEC,the PCAOB shall have independentdiscretion to select any issuer audits for inspection or investigation and has theunfettered ability to transfer information to the SEC.On December 15,2022,thePCAOB Board determined that the PCAOB was able to secure complete access to inspectand investigate registered public accounting firms headquartered in mainland Chinaand Hong Kong and voted to vacate its previous determinations to the contrary.However,should PRC authorities obstruct or otherwise fail to facilitate thePCAOBs access in the future,the PCAOB Board will consider the need to issue anew determination.Notwithstanding the foregoing,we cannot assure you whetherNasdaq or regulatory authorities would apply additional and more stringent criteriato us after considering the effectiveness of our auditors audit procedures andquality control procedures,adequacy of personnel and training,or sufficiency ofresources,geographic reach or experience as it relates to the audit of ourfinancial statements.In addition,under the HFCA Act,our securities may beprohibited from trading on the Nasdaq or other U.S.stock exchanges if our auditoris not inspected by the PCAOB for three consecutive years,which could be reducedto two consecutive years if the Accelerating Holding Foreign Companies AccountableAct is signed into law,and this ultimately could result in our ordinary sharesbeing delisted by the stock exchange if the PCAOB determines that it cannot inspector investigate completely our auditor.See“Risk Factors Risks Related to DoingBusiness in China Our ordinary shares may be delisted under the HFCA Act if thePCAOB is unable to inspect auditors who are located in China.The delisting of ourordinary shares,or the threat of their being delisted,may materially andadversely affect the value of your investment.Furthermore,on June 22,2021,theU.S.Senate passed the Accelerating Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act,which,if enacted,would amend the HFCA Act2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874137/000121390023002066/ff12023_fdtech.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874137/000121390023002066/ff12023_fdtech.htm29/264122023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874137/000121390023002066/ff12023_fdtech.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874137/000121390023002066/ff12023_fdtech.htm30/264Table of Contentsand require the SEC to prohibit an issuers securities from trading on any U.S.stock exchanges if its auditor is not subject to PCAOB inspections for twoconsecutive years instead of three,reducing the time before our ordinary sharesmay be prohibited from trading or delisted”beginning on page 21.Implications of Being an Emerging Growth CompanyWe had less than$1.235 billion in revenue during our last fiscal year.As aresult,we qualify as an“emerging growth company”as defined in the Jumpstart OurBusiness Startups Act of 2012(the“JOBS Act”),and may take advantage of reducedpublic reporting requirements.These provisions include,but are not limited to:being permitted to present only two years of audited financial statementsand only two years of related Managements Discussion and Analysis ofFinancial Condition and Results of Operations in our filings with the SEC;not being required to comply with the auditor attestation requirements inthe assessment of our internal control over financial reporting;reduced disclosure obligations regarding executive compensation inperiodic reports,proxy statements and registration statements;and exemptions from the requirements of holding a nonbinding advisory vote onexecutive compensation and shareholder approval of any golden parachutepayments not previously approved.We may take advantage of these provisions until the last day of our fiscal yearfollowing the fifth anniversary of the date of the first sale of our ordinaryshares pursuant to this offering.However,if certain events occur before the endof such five-year period,including if we become a“large accelerated filer,”ifour annual gross revenues exceed$1.235 billion or if we issue more than$1.0 billion of non-convertible debt in any three-year period,we will cease to bean emerging growth company before the end of such five-year period.Section 107 of the JOBS Act provides that an emerging growth company can takeadvantage of the extended transition period provided in Section 7(a)(2)(B)of theSecurities Act of 1933,as amended(the“Securities Act”),for complying with newor revised accounting standards.We have elected to take advantage of this extendedtransition period and acknowledge such election is irrevocable pursuant toSection 107 of the JOBS Act.In addition,both foreign private issuers and emerging growth companies areexempt from certain of the more extensive SEC executive compensation disclosurerules(see“Implications of Being a Foreign Private Issuer”below).Therefore,even if we no longer qualify as an emerging growth company but remain a foreignprivate issuer,we will continue to be exempt from such rules and will continue tobe permitted to follow our home country practice as to the disclosure of suchmatters.Implications of Being a Foreign Private IssuerUpon consummation of this offering,we will report under the SecuritiesExchange Act of 1934,as amended(the“Exchange Act”),as a non-U.S.company with“foreign private issuer”status.Even after we no longer qualify as an emerginggrowth company,so long as we qualify as a foreign private issuer under theExchange Act,we will be exempt from certain provisions of the Exchange Act and therules thereunder that are applicable to U.S.domestic public companies,including:the rules under the Exchange Act that require U.S.domestic publiccompanies to issue financial statements prepared under U.S.GAAP;the sections of the Exchange Act that regulate the solicitation ofproxies,consents or authorizations in respect of any securitiesregistered under the Exchange Act;the sections of the Exchange Act that require insiders to file publicreports of their share ownership and trading activities and that imposeliability on insiders who profit from trades made in a short period oftime;and the rules under the Exchange Act that require the filing with the SEC ofquarterly reports on Form 10-Q,containing unaudited financial and otherspecified information,and current reports on Form 8-K,upon theoccurrence of specified significant events.132023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874137/000121390023002066/ff12023_fdtech.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874137/000121390023002066/ff12023_fdtech.htm31/264Table of ContentsWe will file with the SEC,within four months after the end of each fiscal year(or such other reports required by the SEC),an annual report on Form 20-F containing financial statements audited by an independent registered publicaccounting firm.We may take advantage of these exemptions until such time as we are no longer aforeign private issuer.We would cease to be a foreign private issuer at such timeas more than 50%of our outstanding voting securities are held by U.S.residentsand any of the following three circumstances applies:(i)the majority of ourexecutive officers or directors are U.S.citizens or residents,(ii)more than 50%of our assets are located in the United States or(iii)our business isadministered principally in the United States.Dividend Distributions or Assets Transfer among Fendan and ItsSubsidiariesWe are a holding company incorporated as an exempted company under the laws ofthe Cayman Islands.As a holding company with no material operations of our own,weconduct substantially all of our operations through our operating entitiesestablished in the PRC,primarily Shanghai Fendan.As a result,we may rely ondividends and other distributions on equity paid by our PRC Subsidiaries for ourcash and financing requirements and our distribution of earnings or settlement ofamounts owed will be done through our PRC Subsidiaries.If any of our PRCSubsidiaries incurs debt on its own behalf in the future,the instruments governingsuch debt may restrict their ability to pay dividends to us.The transfer of funds among PRC companies are subject to the Provisions of theSupreme Peoples Court on Several Issues Concerning the Application of Law in theTrial of Private Lending Cases(2020 Revision,the“Provisions on Private LendingCases”),which was implemented on August 20,2020 to regulate the financingactivities between natural persons,legal persons and unincorporated organizations.The Provisions on Private Lending Cases does not prohibit cash transfers among thePRC companys subsidiaries.As of the date of this prospectus,we have not beennotified of any other restrictions which could li

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石化行业：中沙石油石化合作带来的投资机遇-230209（18页）.pdf

有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。石油化工行业 行业研究|深度报告 2022 年 12 月 8 日，中国国家主席习近平访问沙特，两国政府和企业达成 40 余份合作协议或意向。我们认为，中沙在能源、石油石化领域的合作在未来将对行业产生深远的影响，具体分析如下：中沙双方具有良好的合作基础中沙双方具有良好的合作基础：中国和沙特分别是全球重要的能源消费和生产国，且两国能源结构互补，我国需要沙特的原油，沙特需要我国的市场。我国在光伏、氢能、储能等领域的产业链优势还可助力沙特实现能源转型。此外，沙特还追求石化的产业升级，17 年后我国经历过一轮大炼化的扩建期，积累了足够的工程设计、施工和技术能力，涌现出一批优秀的炼化设备和 EPC 企业。而沙特过往与发达国家有过一系列的高端化工品合作，掌握了部分“卡脖子”化工品的生产技术，与之合作有望加速“卡脖子”化工品的国产化进度。中沙中沙石油石化领域石油石化领域可能的合作模式：可能的合作模式：基于中沙的禀赋，我们认为双方未来在石油石化领域可能采用以下三种合作模式：第一种模式是沙特扮演我国原油供应伙伴的角色。第二种模式是我国在新能源以及新建炼厂方面承接沙特的需求，助力其完成能源转型与产业升级。第三种模式是双方在炼厂股权上深度绑定，中国以市场换技术，让沙特参与到国内的炼化项目中，换取“卡脖子”化工品的早日国产化。三个领域三个领域有望受益有望受益：我们认为以下三个领域有望从中阿合作中受益，首先，中阿之间原油及化工品贸易有望增加，利好油运及化工品运输企业。其次，一座炼厂的投资动辄超百亿美元，炼化设备企业及 EPC 企业受益于沙特扩建炼厂。最后是合资炼厂，合资炼厂有望引进沙特的技术，生产“卡脖子”的化工品，提高自身竞争力。新时代的中沙全面战略伙伴关系提质、升级、换挡，必将促进中沙各自发展，并正面影响中东和国际战略格局演变。中沙在石油石化领域拥有大量的合作机会，油运化工品运输、炼化设备及 EPC 和合资炼厂有望从未来的中沙深化合作中受益。建议关注油运化工品运输标的密尔克卫(603713，未评级)、盛航股份(001205，未评级)、中远海能(600026，未评级)、招商南油(601975，未评级)，炼化设备及 EPC 标的中国化学(601117，未评级)、卓然股份(688121，未评级)、兰石重装(603169，未评级)、中国一重(601106，未评级)、科新机电(300092，未评级)，及合资炼厂中国石化(600028，增持)、华锦股份(000059，未评级)、荣盛石化(002493，买入)的投资机会 风险提示风险提示 中沙合作进展不及预期；地缘政治风险；全球经济衰退风险；假设条件变化影响测算结果。投资建议与投资标的 核心观点 国家/地区 中国 行业 石油化工行业 报告发布日期 2023 年 02 月 09 日 倪吉 021-63325888*7504 执业证书编号：S0860517120003 袁帅 执业证书编号：S0860522070002 高端聚烯烃市场广阔，把握国产化阶段投资机会 2022-12-23 民营大炼化的进击：从成本领先走向工艺领先 2022-07-19 高油价对大炼化的影响 2022-02-24 中沙石油石化领域合作带来的投资机会 看好（维持）石油化工行业深度报告 中沙石油石化领域合作带来的投资机会 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。2 目 录 1.引言.4 2.中沙能源领域有良好的合作基础.4 2.1 中国力量助力沙特战略转型.4 2.1.1 沙特石油转石化需要我国炼化产业 5 2.1.2 沙特长期结构转型需要我国新能源产业 6 2.2 中沙合作对我国战略与产业发展具有重要意义.8 2.2.1 沙特掌握部分“卡脖子”化工品生产技术 9 3.中沙炼化领域可能的合作模式.10 3.1 沙特扮演我国原油供应伙伴的角色.10 3.2 我国企业承接沙特炼厂建设的需求.11 3.3 炼厂股权深度绑定.13 4.油运化工品运输、炼化设备及 EPC 和合资炼厂有望受益.14 5.投资建议.16 6.风险提示.16 mWlYtVtVlVfW8X9UvY9Y6MaOaQoMnNsQsRkPmMpNeRnMnN8OqQwPMYmMzQxNnRmR 石油化工行业深度报告 中沙石油石化领域合作带来的投资机会 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。3 图表目录 图 1：沙特国家再生能源计划.6 图 2：我国各月进口沙特原油数量（万吨/月）.7 图 3：沙特原油出口数量（万桶/日）.7 图 4：绿氨产业示意图.7 图 5：不同货币国际支付中的市场份额.8 图 6：PC 供给格局.10 图 7：POE 粒子供给格局.10 图 8：2021 年全球原油贸易图.11 图 9：油运及化工品运输船大小.15 图 10：BDTI 油运指数.15 表 1：2017-2022 年国内新建及扩建炼化项目一览表.5 表 2：燃料性能对比.8 表 3：绿氨与传统合成氨成本比较.8 表 4：截止到 2021 年底沙特阿美在海外持股的炼油厂和化工厂.9 表 5：2021 年沙特阿美油气产量.11 表 6：2018 年沙特阿美主要化工品产能.12 表 7：2018 年 SABIC 主要化工品产能.12 表 8：沙特阿美主要炼厂产能.12 表 9：中沙合作项目股权比例.14 石油化工行业深度报告 中沙石油石化领域合作带来的投资机会 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。4 1.引言引言 2022 年 12 月 8 日，中国国家主席习近平访问沙特，两国政府和企业达成 40 余份合作协议或意向。新时代的中沙全面战略伙伴关系提质、升级、换挡，必将促进中沙各自发展，并正面影响中东和国际战略格局演变。我们认为，中沙在石化领域的合作也将产生深刻的影响，具体分析如下：1）中沙双方具有良好的合作基础：中沙双方具有良好的合作基础：中国和沙特分别是全球重要的能源消费和生产国，我国需要沙特的原油，沙特需要我国的市场。我国原油自给率长期低于 30%，需要稳定的原油供应，与沙特的合作有望保障我国的能源安全。我国在光伏、氢能、储能等领域的产业链优势还可助力沙特实现能源转型。此外，沙特还追求石化的产业升级，17 年后我国经历过一轮大炼化的扩建期，积累了足够的工程设计、施工和技术能力，涌现出一批优秀的炼化设备和 EPC 企业。而沙特过往与发达国家有过一系列的高端化工品合作，掌握了部分“卡脖子”化工品的生产技术，与之合作有望加速“卡脖子”化工品的国产化进度。2）中沙中沙石油石化领域可能的合作模式石油石化领域可能的合作模式：基于中沙的禀赋，我们认为双方未来在石油石化领域可能采用以下三种合作模式：第一种模式是沙特扮演我国原油供应伙伴的角色。第二种模式是我国在新能源以及新建炼厂方面承接沙特的需求，助力其完成能源转型与产业升级。第三种模式是双方在炼厂股权上深度绑定，中国以市场换技术，让沙特参与到国内的炼化项目中，换取“卡脖子”化工品的早日国产化。3）三个领域三个领域有望受益有望受益：我们认为以下三个领域有望从中阿合作中受益，首先，中阿之间原油及化工品贸易有望增加，利好油运及化工品运输企业。其次，一座炼厂的投资动辄超百亿美元，炼化设备企业及 EPC 企业受益于沙特扩建炼厂。最后是合资炼厂，合资炼厂有望引进沙特的技术，生产“卡脖子”的化工品，提高自身竞争力。2.中沙能源领域有良好的合作基础中沙能源领域有良好的合作基础 中国和沙特分别是全球重要的能源消费和生产国，产业链上下游的关系使得两国天然就具备合作基础。而随着近几年能源格局、地缘政治、国家发展的变化，两国之间出现了超越石油买卖、谋求深入合作的契机。我们认为两国各自都具备能够吸引对方的产业和资源要素，如果未来合作能够全面开展，有望实现双赢。2.1 中国力量助力沙特战略转型 从沙特近几年的政策可以看出，其未来发展可以分为传统能源和新能源两个维度。传统能源方面，2020 年沙特出台石油可持续发展计划，整合多个政府机构、研究机构和企业等利益相关者，通过增加投资、提升技术等手段确保石化能源的利用效率和可持续性，并强化对外合作交流，在全球范围支持新兴市场发展，消除能源获取障碍。新能源方面，2017 年沙特启动国家可再生能源计划（NREP），作为“2030愿景”组成部分，目标到2024年拥有27.3GW的可再生能源发电装机，到 2030 年实现可再生能源发电装机 58.7GW。沙特的这两大发展规划，恰好能匹配我国两方面较强的比较优势。我国在2017年后经历了一轮炼化产能升级，石化行业竞争力实现大幅提升，积累了足够的工程设计、施工和技术能力，涌现出一批优秀的炼化设备和 EPC 企业，这些企业能够助力沙特的石油转石化战略。同时我国在光伏、氢能、储能等产业上拥有突出的制造优势，可助力沙特的长期能源转型。石油化工行业深度报告 中沙石油石化领域合作带来的投资机会 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。5 2.1.1 沙特石油转石化需要我国炼化产业 2014 年，我国提出“国家规划确定的石化基地炼化一体化项目向社会资本开放”的决定，并在沿海省份规划了七大石油化工生产基地，引入竞争，促进产业升级。过去我国炼厂的产品结构以油品为主，而新投产的炼厂提高了化工品的收率，且在原料的适应性、能耗的高效性上有明显优势，以恒力和荣盛为代表的民营大炼化表现出极强的成本竞争力。民营大炼化的投产不仅提高了国内烯烃和芳烃的自给率，也触发了“鲶鱼效应”。国营炼厂面对压力也加入到了炼化装置升级改造的大潮中，上马的也都是千万吨炼油和百万吨乙烯装备。在这一轮炼化的产业升级过程中，国产化水平大大提升，工程设计、安装施工、运营管理均为国产化。设备方面的国产化率也有提高，截至“十三五”末，以中石化为例，中国石化重大装备国产化率创新高，千万吨级炼油装备国产化率达 94%，百万吨级乙烯装备国产化率 87%。表 1：2017-2022 年国内新建及扩建炼化项目一览表 企业名称 所属集团 新增产能（万吨）投产时间 类型 云南石化 中石油 1300 2017 新建 中海油惠州二期 中海油 1000 2017 扩建 华北石化 中石油 500 2018 扩建 中海油气泰州 中海油 150 2019 扩建 中化泉州 中化集团 300 2020 扩建 洛阳石化 中石化 200 2020 扩建 中科炼化一期 中石化 1000 2020 新建 镇海炼化 中石化 400 2021 扩建 广东石化 中石油 2000 2022 新建 清沂山石化 清源集团 300 2017 新建 永鑫化工 永鑫化工 350 2017 新建 山东海化 山东海化集团 240 2018 新建 东营石化 中海化工 350 2018 新建 恒力石化 恒力集团 2000 2018 新建 浙江石化（一期）荣盛集团 2000 2019 新建 中谷石化 中谷石化 500 2019 扩建 珠海华峰 珠海华峰 380 2019 扩建 金诚石化 金诚石化 290 2019 扩建 浙江石化（二期）荣盛集团 2000 2020 新建 辽宁宝来 辽宁宝来 1000 2021 扩建 盛虹炼化 盛虹集团 1600 2022 新建 资料来源：隆众资讯，东方证券研究所 一批优秀的国内 EPC 和炼化设备公司在这轮炼化扩产期中脱颖而出。以乙烯装置中的裂解炉为例，裂解炉的综合能耗约占乙烯装置综合能耗的50%-60%，裂解炉的投资又很大，约占整个乙烯装置投资的 1/41/3。裂解炉的规模化也是炼化设备面临的难题，20 世纪 80 年代我国以 30 万吨/年乙烯装置为起点，经过多年的升级改造，目前 100 万吨/年的乙烯装置成为了行业内的主流装置。乙烯裂解炉制造的龙头企业卓然股份以打造大型乙烯裂解炉成套装备绿色制造为发展目标，在工艺设计、工程设计、制造设计等领域研发先进技术。公司的大型抗结焦乙烯裂解炉先后获得江苏省重大科技成果转化项目、国家 863 项目、国家重大科学仪器设备开发等支持，获得江苏省科技进步奖、江苏省首台套等荣誉。2013 年，公司完成出口“马来西亚 Titan 9 万吨/年乙烯裂解炉项目”，首次由中国自主设计，采用中国石化工程建设有限公司（SEI）工艺，该项目是中国石化 石油化工行业深度报告 中沙石油石化领域合作带来的投资机会 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。6 自主知识产权技术和装备的首次成套出口，打破了国外公司对乙烯裂解专用设备国际市场的长期垄断。透过恒力石化 2000 万吨/年炼化一体化项目，则能更清晰地看到炼化国产化的最新全貌。除空分装置采用了德国林德的设备外，恒力大炼化项目所用的加氢反应器由中国二重制造供货，“乙烯三机”由杭汽轮接单，核心静设备由兰石重装提供，非标设备由中石油七建装备制造分公司等制造，主要设备基本都为国产制造供应。可以说2017年开始的国内大炼化行业变革，非常扎实的提升了我国的石化行业竞争力，从工艺、设计、制造、建设、管理、运营等方方面面都培育了新一批的优秀企业和人才，这恰好可以为沙特寻求从石油出口转型成炼化产品出口的诉求提供助力。2.1.2 沙特长期结构转型需要我国新能源产业 中沙在能源和经济结构上互补性强，沙特是全球前三的产油国，2022 年原油产量 1044 万桶/日，2021 年的日均出口量超 600 万桶/日，直接出口原油的比例很高。我国则是原油主要消费国和进口国，2021 年我国原油产量 19898 万吨，进口量 51298 万吨，自给率不足 30%。沙特是我国主要的原油进口国，2019 年后长期维持在 600 万吨/月的进口量，与沙特的合作有望保障我国的能源安全。沙特寻求能源转型，以应对后原油时代，我国积极参与沙特能源转型计划，2021 年 2 月，中国电建所属山东电建三公司与 ACWA Power 签署沙特红海公用事业基础设施项目 EPC 合同，其中红海新城储能项目储电量高达 1300MWh，是全球最大储能项目。2022 年 10 月，中国能建与 ACWA Power 签署了阿尔舒巴赫 2.6GW 光伏电站项目授标协议，主要工程包括光伏电站的设计、采购、施工及调试工作。图 1：沙特国家再生能源计划 资料来源：经济日报，东方证券研究所 石油化工行业深度报告 中沙石油石化领域合作带来的投资机会 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。7 图 2：我国各月进口沙特原油数量（万吨/月）资料来源：Wind，东方证券研究所 图 3：沙特原油出口数量（万桶/日）资料来源：Wind，东方证券研究所 我们曾在碳中和系列报告七：尿素大涨的启示中指出，中长期来看，天然气不论在能源还是化工都只是阶段性解决方案，绿氨可能是更优的解决方案。绿氨与传统天然气或煤化工路线的合成氨相比，最核心解决的就是碳排放问题。欧洲较早就开始研究绿氨的生产和应用，雅苒、Starkraft 等大型化工和可再生能源公司已经在北欧建设商业化的绿氨生产工厂。绿氨还有望全面替代现有的船燃和火电燃料体系，未来一次能源中的电力和热力绝大部分都会被绿电替代，但风光资源不丰富的地区则需要依托某种介质将风光资源转化后进而运输。绿氨就可以作为这种能源介质。绿氨沸点较高，简单加压就可以液化，现有的 LPG 船就能直接用来运输液化得绿氨，绿氨液化后单位体积的能量密度虽然不如化石能源，但也略高于绿氢。更重要的是绿氨的液化成本、运输成本远低于氢气，所以即使绿氢转化成绿氨需要一定成本，绿氨的综合使用成本也低于绿氢。沙特地理位置优越，光伏发电的度电成本可低至 7 分钱/度，若沙特利用当地低廉的绿电电解水生产绿氢，将绿氢与氮气反应生产绿氨。按沙特低至7分钱/度的光伏发电成本测算，绿氨成本1875元/吨，加上运费后约 2147 元/吨。若考虑到碳配额，则沙特的绿氨较天然气制合成氨有成本优势。未来沙特有望依托低廉的光伏发电成本制绿氨，继续成为全球新能源输出中心。图 4：绿氨产业示意图 02004006008001000进口数量:原油:沙特阿拉伯:当月值5506006507007508002015201620172018201920202021出口数量:原油:沙特阿拉伯 石油化工行业深度报告 中沙石油石化领域合作带来的投资机会 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。8 资料来源：搜狐网，东方证券研究所 表 2：燃料性能对比 品种 沸点（摄氏度）液态能量密度（MJ/方）氨-34 11440 天然气-162 20790 LPG-42 27260 氢气-253 10132 资料来源：东方证券研究所测算 表 3：绿氨与传统合成氨成本比较 绿电路线绿电路线 天然气路线天然气路线 绿电 0.07 元/度 天然气 2.5 美元/mmbt 绿氢 5350 元/吨 合成氨 1638 元/吨 绿氨 1875 元/吨 碳配额 1246 元/吨 绿氨到岸 2147 元/吨 含碳价成本 2884 元/吨 资料来源：东方证券研究所测算 2.2 中沙合作对我国战略与产业发展具有重要意义 同沙特深化能源领域的合作也有望加速人民币国际化进程。众所周知，“石油美元”机制构成了美元霸权的战略支柱，其拥有两大内核：一是国际石油贸易以美元作为计价和结算货币；二是产油国出口石油所获得的净收入用于购买美元计价金融资产。虽然短期内要打破美元计价原油的局面难度很大，但从长远来看，以多种货币定价原油将是未来发展的大趋势。我国先后与俄罗斯、伊朗以及阿联酋实现了原油和天然气的人民币结算，若在原油采购方面深化与沙特这一 OPEC 核心国的关系，则有助于在未来加速人民币国际化的进度。图 5：不同货币国际支付中的市场份额 资料来源：Wind，东方证券研究所 0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%0 0P%国际支付:市场份额:美元国际支付:市场份额:欧元人民币国际支付:全球市场份额（右轴）国际支付:市场份额:日元（右轴）石油化工行业深度报告 中沙石油石化领域合作带来的投资机会 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。9 2.2.1 沙特掌握部分“卡脖子”化工品生产技术 沙特阿美和 SABIC 业务布局全球，截止到 21 年底已投资多家化工企业。在荷兰，沙特阿美和德国朗盛公司在组建了合资企业 ARLANXEO，后沙特阿美收购了朗盛公司持有的股份，该公司的主要业务是高性能橡胶的开发、制造和销售。在美国、中国、法国、德国、巴西等多个地区设有分支机构。SABIC 在全球多个地区设有分支机构，包括技术创新中心、制造中心、物流中心和销售办公室。在美国，SABIC 分别持有海湾沿岸增长公司、CosMar 公司和 Mallinda 公司的股份。在新加坡，SABIC 和韩国 SK 公司成立了 SABIC SK Nexlene 公司。在荷兰，SABIC 与塑料能源公司组建了SABIC塑料能源高级回收公司。SABIC还分别持有了位于瑞士的科莱恩公司以及位于巴林的海湾石油化工公司的 31.50%和 16.7%的股份。在中国，2009年 SABIC和中石化共同出资设立了中沙（天津）石化有限公司。表 4：截止到 2021 年底沙特阿美在海外持股的炼油厂和化工厂 公司名称 主要业务 地区 沙特阿美持股比例 SABIC 持股比例 ARLANXEO 高性能橡胶的开发、制造和销售 荷兰（总部），欧洲、亚洲、美洲多地区 100.0%阿美高性能材料公司 石化产品制造和销售 美国 100.0%Motiva 石化品制造精炼和销售 美国 100.0%沙特炼油公司 炼油和销售 美国 100.0%弗农山苯酚厂 石化制造和销售 美国 35.7%S-Oil 公司 炼油 韩国 61.6%彭格朗 炼油与石油化工 马来西亚 50.0%华锦阿美石油化工公司 石油化工 中国 35.0%福建古雷炼化 炼油/石油化工 中国 25.0%SABIC 石化制造和销售 沙特（总部），欧洲、亚洲、美洲多地区 70.0%海湾沿岸增长公司 石油化工产品生产 美国 35.0P.0%CosMar 公司 石油化工产品制造 美国 35.0P.0%Mallinda 塑料树脂制造商 美国 18.3&.2%中沙（天津）石化有限公司 生产乙烯、乙二醇、乙烯、聚乙烯、聚丙烯、丙烯、汽油的石油化工综合体的运营 中国 35.0P.0%SABIC SK Nexlene 公司 低线密度聚乙烯的生产综合运营 新加坡 35.0P.0%SABIC 塑料能源高级回收公司 废塑料生产热解油示范工厂 荷兰 35.0P.0%科莱恩公司 特种化工产品制造 瑞士 22.11.5%海湾石油化工公司（GPIC）石油化工产品制造 巴林 11.7.7%资料来源：沙特阿美公司公告，SABIC 公司公告，东方证券研究所 与沙特合作可降低我国高端化工品的进口依存度。根据百川资讯的数据，2022 年前 11 个月，中国乙二醇表观消费量 1882.2 万吨，进口量 695.7 万吨，进口依存度为 37.0%。聚乙烯表观消费量3357.2 万吨，进口量 1243.3 万吨，进口依存度为 37.0%。PC 表观消费量 228.5 万吨，进口量108.4 万吨，进口依存度达 47.4%。PMMA 表观消费量 42.2 万吨，进口量 18.0 万吨，进口依存度达 42.7%，其中光学级PMMA严重依赖进口。POM表观消费量 59.3万吨，进口量 31.0万吨，进口依存度达 52.3%。SABIC 在上述工程塑料领域有一定优势。另一备受关注的高端化工品是POE，随着 N 型电池渗透率的提升，POE 胶膜的需求也随之提升，但国内目前还未实现 POE 的国产化，严重依赖进口。POE 原材料之一-烯烃的国产化也亟待突破。早在 2005 年，SABIC就 石油化工行业深度报告 中沙石油石化领域合作带来的投资机会 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。10 和德国 Linde 联合开发了以乙烯为原料、选择性催化合成直链-烯烃的“alpha-Sablin”技术，该技术在朱拜勒联合石化建成 15 万吨/年的工业化装置。POE 的各家生产商均拥有独家催化剂，SABIC 也有专有催化剂。2014 年 SABIC 与韩国 SK 综合化学等额合资控股 SABIC SK Nexlene Company（SSNC），大力开发聚烯烃弹性体 POE，产品于 2015 年开始投放市场，牌号为Smart、Solumer。我们观察沙特的技术来源可以发现，沙特的技术多是通过和发达国家联合研发获得，例如对选择性要求极高的-烯烃技术就是和德国的 Linde 共同开发的，POE 则是和韩国 SK 集团合资建设。发达国家长期对我国封锁技术转让，若能与沙特在“卡脖子”化工品领域加强合作，则有望绕开发达国家的技术封锁，加速“卡脖子”化工品的国产化。图 6：PC 供给格局 资料来源：艾邦高分子，东方证券研究所 图 7：POE 粒子供给格局 资料来源：艾邦高分子，东方证券研究所 3.中沙中沙炼化炼化领域可能的合作模式领域可能的合作模式 基于中沙的禀赋，我们展望未来双方可能采用的三种合作方式如下。第一种模式是沙特扮演我国原油供应伙伴的角色，作为全球前三的产油国，沙特原油产量大出口比例高，稳定采购沙特原油有利于我国的能源安全。第二种模式是沙特新建炼厂将原油转化成化工品，提高产品附加值，中国向其输出炼化设备和工程建设能力。第三种模式是双方在炼厂股权上深度绑定，中国以市场换技术，让沙特参与到国内的炼化项目中，换取“卡脖子”化工品的早日国产化。3.1 沙特扮演我国原油供应伙伴的角色 最为显而易见的合作方式就是沙特扮演我国的原油供应伙伴的角色，根据 Wind 的数据，沙特是全球最大的原油出口国，2021 年平均出口原油 622.74 万桶/日。同时，根据 BP 世界能源图鉴数据，化工品平均出口 120.5 万桶/日。中国是全球最大的原油进口国，2021 年平均进口原油1056.2 万桶/日。化工品方面，国内的进口量和出口量都很大，2021 年平均进口化工品 216.2 万桶/日，出口化工品 126.6 万桶/日。加深原油供应上的合作对中沙双方均有利，对沙特来说，国际油价受全球需求影响，波动很大，沙特财政超 7 成来自石油收入，若能与中国建立长期稳定的原油供应关系，则有利于稳定沙特的财政收入。对于我国来说，原油进口需求很高，自给率很低，有沙特这一稳定的供应伙伴也有利于我国的能源安全。30%6%5#%科思创SABIC三菱出光帝人其他43%3%1%陶氏化学三井化学埃克森美孚SABIC-SK北欧化工LG化学 石油化工行业深度报告 中沙石油石化领域合作带来的投资机会 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。11 表 5：2021 年沙特阿美油气产量 产品 产量 单位 原油 9.219 百万桶/日 凝析油 0.175 百万桶/日 天然气凝析油 0.2 百万桶/日 丁烷 0.291 百万桶/日 丙烷 0.474 百万桶/日 总液体 10 百万桶/日 天然气 9202 百万立方英尺 乙烷 934 百万立方英尺 总气体 10136 百万立方英尺 碳氢化合物合计 12.343 百万桶油当量/日 资料来源：沙特阿美公司公告，东方证券研究所 图 8：2021 年全球原油贸易图 资料来源：BP 世界能源年鉴，东方证券研究所 此外，2018 年前亚洲国家没有原油定价权，中东地区销往亚洲地区的原油基于完全由普氏能源评估的阿曼与迪拜均价。产油国销往亚洲的原油基准大多参照迪拜和阿曼原油的现货价格，销往欧洲的原油基准是 Brent 或 BWAVE 原油价格，销往美国的原油基准原来为 WTI 原油价格，后来由于 WTI 较 Brent 存在巨大折价迫使中东国家使用阿格斯含硫原油指数。这就导致了原油市场出现“亚洲溢价”的现象。亚洲地区的石油进口国要比欧美国家支付较高的原油价格。为此，我国于2018 年 3 月在上海期货交易所推出上海原油期货，这是中国第一个原油期货合约，也是全球第一个以人民币计价的原油期货。未来，我国与沙特在原油供应上加深合作，也有助于我国参与国际原油定价。3.2 我国企业承接沙特炼厂建设的需求 石油化工行业深度报告 中沙石油石化领域合作带来的投资机会 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。12 由于原油价格波动大，影响沙特财政稳定性，沙特也在寻求产业升级，计划从初级原材料原油出口国升级成为化工品主要的出口国。为此，沙特阿美于 2020 年 6 月以约 690 亿美元的价格，从沙特主权财富基金（PIF）手中收购了 SABIC 公司 70%的股权。沙特阿美计划到 2030 年将其炼厂产能从 490万桶/日提高到800-1000万桶/日，其中200-300万桶/日的原油将转化为石化产品。沙特阿美与 SABIC 计划在沙特阿拉伯延布新建原油直接制化学品（COTC）项目，预计到 2025年将形成年处理 40 万桶/天原油，生产约 900 万吨/年化学品和基础油的能力。沙特阿美还与法国道达尔达成了在朱拜勒开发一个 90 亿美元石化项目的协议，计划在 2023-2024 年投产 270 万吨/年化学品。表 6：2018 年沙特阿美主要化工品产能 产品名称 名义产能（万吨/年）净产能（万吨/年）乙烯 429.9 191.2 丙烯 395.7 197 丁二烯 16.8 4.2 对二甲苯 470 227.5 苯 237.6 112.2 其他芳烃 253.3 121.9 聚乙烯 298.5 130.9 聚丙烯 177.3 68.1 合成橡胶和弹性体 203.9 191.5 中间体 149.1 76.5 衍生品 688.2 347.7 资料来源：沙特阿美招股说明书，东方证券研究所 表 7：2018 年 SABIC 主要化工品产能 产品名称 净产能（万吨/年）乙烯 1139.2 丙烯 591 乙二醇 381.2 聚丙烯 280.4 资料来源：沙特阿美招股说明书，东方证券研究所 沙特炼化产能的扩张并非仅在本土，而是面向需求市场的全球扩张。基于全球化工品需求呈良好发展态势的预判，沙特阿美炼化板块在未来 1020 年将重点发展化工业务，亚洲的发展中国家将是化工品需求增量的主要来源。从炼厂分布可以看出，沙特阿美过去注重发达国家市场，炼厂主要投资在美国、日本和韩国。但近年来沙特阿美逐步从发达国家转移到发展中国家，2017 年沙特阿美出售了美国莫提瓦诺克炼厂和 convent 炼厂的股权。投资重点转向了中国、马来西亚这样的发展中国家。沙特阿美参与的马来西亚 RAPID 炼厂已于 2019 年底投产。此外，沙特阿美还与印度、巴基斯坦、印尼等国家均签署了谅解备忘录。假设沙特阿美炼油能力在2030年提升至800万桶/日，则有 310 万桶/日的增长空间，按照 1 万桶/日炼油产能的投资强度 4 亿美元测算，预计产生超 1200 亿美元的工程建设需求。表 8：沙特阿美主要炼厂产能 炼厂名称 沙特阿美持股比例 2020 年产能（万桶/日）所在国 石油化工行业深度报告 中沙石油石化领域合作带来的投资机会 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。13 朱拜勒 Sasref 炼厂 100(.4 沙特 朱拜勒 Satorp 炼厂 62.57.2 沙特 哈夫吉炼厂 100%2.8 沙特 拉比格炼厂 37.57.2 沙特 拉斯坦努拉炼厂 100Q.1 沙特 利雅得炼厂 100.2 沙特 延布炼厂 100.3 沙特 中沙延布 Yasref 炼厂 62.57.2 沙特 沙特美孚 Samref 炼厂 507.2 沙特 吉赞炼厂 1007.2 沙特 美国莫提瓦亚瑟港炼厂 100a.4 美国 日本 Keihin Mizue 炼厂 3.8%6.5 日本 日本 Yokkaichi 炼厂 5.7.3 日本 日本 Yamaguchi 炼厂 2.9.2 日本 日本 Sodegaura 炼厂 0.5.3 日本 日本 Hokkaido 炼厂 7.7.0 日本 日本 Chiba 炼厂 7.7.7 日本 日本 Aichi 炼厂 7.7.9 日本 韩国 Daesan 炼厂 17.0d.2 韩国 韩国蔚山炼厂 63.40b.2 韩国 福建联合石化 25.0$.0 中国 马来西亚 RAPID 炼厂 50.0.9 马来西亚 资料来源：沙特阿美公司下游发展战略对中国炼化企业的启示，高振宇等，东方证券研究所 我国通过“一带一路”倡议，帮助发展中国家完成了许多基础设施建设。经过2017年后国内这一轮炼化扩建的高峰期，国内炼化装备和 EPC 的水平有了长足的进步，智能化水平处于世界领先水平。沙特未来建设炼厂的目的地瞄准发展中国家，若我国的企业能够中标，也与“一带一路”倡议的目标也相符。我国在海外炼化 EPC 方面也有经验，2009 年中国石化炼化工程板块完成在沙特市场第一个真正意义上的 EPC 工程沙特延布聚烯烃项目。2019 年中国石油工程建设有限公司作为总成本商帮助哈萨克斯坦奇姆肯特炼油厂完成现代化改造，该项目也是“一带一路”倡议与哈萨克斯坦“光明之路”新经济政策对接下的重点合作项目。2022 年 11 月二十国集团工商峰会上，中国兵器工业集团有限公司北方公司所属北方国际合作股份有限公司与印尼米拉绿能公司签署了印尼中加里曼丹炼化厂 EPC 合同。该项目是北方国际承接的首个炼化领域 EPC 项目。由此可见，中方完全有能力承接沙方的炼厂建设需求。3.3 炼厂股权深度绑定 第三种方式是中沙双方在炼厂股权方面深度绑定，共担风险，共享收益。中沙在炼化领域的合作早有先例，中国石化和沙特阿美总投资超 80亿美元的延布炼厂是中国石化海外做大的下游资产之一，其中中国石化持股 37.5%。沙特方面在华的炼化投资更多，2007 年，福建炼油化工有限公司、埃克森美孚中国石油化工公司、沙特阿美中国有限公司以 50%：25%：25%的股比出资设立福建联合石油化工有限公司。总投资约 400 亿人民币，建成 1400 万吨/年炼油和百万吨乙烯项目。2009 年中国石化和 SABIC 以 50:50 的股比共同出资设立了中沙（天津）石化有限公司，项目总投资约为 183 亿元。其中，SABIC 通过现金的方式入股，而中石化则以设备入股。该项目就是拿市场换取沙方的稳定原油供应，目前该项目拥有 130 万吨/年的乙烯产能。二期计划建设 26 万吨/年 PC 项目，采用 SABIC 公司非光气熔融缩聚法生产工艺，经过 SABIC 西班牙工厂多年运行证 石油化工行业深度报告 中沙石油石化领域合作带来的投资机会 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。14 明，该技术国际领先，运行安全可靠，绿色环保。2018 年，神华宁煤与 SABIC 合资建设年产 70万吨煤制烯烃新材料示范项目。2022 年 3 月，沙特阿美表示公司已做出最终投资决定，将参与开发建设中国东北地区的大型炼油化工一体化联合装置，公司将通过在华合资子公司华锦阿美对该项目进行开发，华锦阿美第一大股东为中国兵器工业集团旗下的北方华锦化工集团，持股 36%，沙特阿美为第二大股东，持股 35%。2022 年 12 月 10 日，中国石化与沙特阿美就福建古雷炼化二期项目签署了合作框架协议，该项目计划建设 1600 万吨/年炼油、150 万吨/年乙烯裂解及下游衍生物一体化装置，预计 2025 年底建成投产。中沙古雷的控股股东为沙特工业投资公司，持股51%。同日，中方也计划在沙方投资，中国石化与沙特阿美、沙特基础工业公司签署了合作谅解备忘录，拟在沙特延布联合开发大型将液体原料转化成化工产品的项目。表 9：中沙合作项目股权比例 公司名称 沙方持股 中方持股 备注 福建联合石油化工有限公司 25P%埃克森美孚持股25%中沙（天津）石化有限公司 50P%福建中沙石化有限公司 51I%神华宁煤-SABIC 华锦阿美石油化工有限公司 35e%资料来源：天眼查，东方证券研究所 现在，我国中外合资建设炼化项目的模式相当普遍，2022 年 12 月，中石化与英力士集团签署合作协议，引入英力士参与中石化正在建设的 120 万吨/年天津南港乙烯及下游化工品项目，股比50%：50%。双方将充分发挥各自优势开展一系列合作，共同拓展高端化工领域市场。外商看重中国广阔的市场，在需求地建厂有利于降低成本，无论是人力成本还是关税，在中国建厂都比出口产品来中国有优势。我国则是看重了外资所掌握的高端化工品的技术工艺。在中沙在炼厂股权上的合作将实现双方的互利共赢。4.油运化工品运输、炼化设备及油运化工品运输、炼化设备及 EPC 和合资炼厂有望和合资炼厂有望受益受益 从以上三种可能的合作模式中，我们认为油运化工品运输、炼化设备及 EPC 和合资炼厂有望受益。首先，我国长时间保持超过 600 万吨/月的沙特原油进口量，随着中阿能源合作的深入，从沙特进口的原油需求有望进一步提升，而沙特转型成全球化工品主要供应国后，相应的化工品运输需求也有望增长，因此油运化工品运输企业将会受益。一艘 VLCC 船载重在 20-30 万吨，沙特到中国海运一般 20 天左右时间，VLCC船租金也曾突破 30 万美元/日，我们按照 8 万美元/日保守测算，一趟运输就要 160 万美金，一个月需要 20-30 趟，则仅原油运输单月就有 3200 万-4800 万美元的市场。石油化工行业深度报告 中沙石油石化领域合作带来的投资机会 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。15 图 9：油运及化工品运输船大小 资料来源：EIA，东方证券研究所 图 10：BDTI 油运指数 资料来源：Wind，东方证券研究所 其次，无论是沙特在本土新建炼厂还是去消费地新建炼厂，按照目前炼厂的规模以及工艺的复杂程度，一座炼厂的投资动辄超百亿美元，中沙在炼化项目中的深化合作有望催生出大规模的炼化设备及 EPC 需求。最后就是合资炼厂，合资炼厂有望引进沙特的技术，建设国内进口依存度高的化工品，提高竞争力。除华锦阿美外，沙特阿美曾在2019年与舟山市政府签署谅解备忘录，拟收购浙石化 9%的股权，未来浙石化不排除引入沙特股东的可能性。050010001500200025003000原油运输指数(BDTI)石油化工行业深度报告 中沙石油石化领域合作带来的投资机会 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。16 5.投资建议投资建议 新时代的中沙全面战略伙伴关系提质、升级、换挡，必将促进中沙各自发展，并正面影响中东和国际战略格局演变。中沙在石油石化领域拥有大量的合作机会，油运化工品运输、炼化设备及EPC 和合资炼厂有望从未来的中沙深化合作中受益。建议关注油运化工品运输标的密尔克卫(603713，未评级)、盛航股份(001205，未评级)、中远海能(600026，未评级)、招商南油(601975，未评级)，炼化设备及 EPC 标的中国化学(601117，未评级)、卓然股份(688121，未评级)、兰石重装(603169，未评级)、中国一重(601106，未评级)、科新机电(300092，未评级)，及合资炼厂中国石化(600028，增持)、华锦股份(000059，未评级)、荣盛石化(002493，买入)的投资机会。6.风险风险提示提示 1）中沙合作进展不及预期：中沙合作需要时间推进，许多项目还未进入实质推进阶段，若项目迟迟没有进展，则相关行业受益程度将不及预期。2）地缘政治风险：中沙合作受到中美、中沙以及美沙等国际关系影响，地缘政治发生变化将影响中沙合作。3）全球经济衰退风险：若全球经济发生衰退，则原油和化工品的需求将受到影响。4）假设条件变化影响测算结果：假设发生变化，会导致测算结果变化，如绿电成本高于 0.07 元/度，则会导致绿氨成本高于预期。石油化工行业深度报告 中沙石油石化领域合作带来的投资机会 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。17 分析师申明 每位负责撰写本研究报告全部或部分内容的研究分析师在此作以下声明：每位负责撰写本研究报告全部或部分内容的研究分析师在此作以下声明：分析师在本报告中对所提及的证券或发行人发表的任何建议和观点均准确地反映了其个人对该证券或发行人的看法和判断；分析师薪酬的任何组成部分无论是在过去、现在及将来，均与其在本研究报告中所表述的具体建议或观点无任何直接或间接的关系。投资评级和相关定义 报告发布日后的 12 个月内的公司的涨跌幅相对同期的上证指数/深证成指的涨跌幅为基准；公司投资评级的量化标准公司投资评级的量化标准 买入：相对强于市场基准指数收益率 15%以上；增持：相对强于市场基准指数收益率 5%；中性：相对于市场基准指数收益率在-5% 5%之间波动；减持：相对弱于市场基准指数收益率在-5%以下。未评级 由于在报告发出之时该股票不在本公司研究覆盖范围内，分析师基于当时对该股票的研究状况，未给予投资评级相关信息。暂停评级 根据监管制度及本公司相关规定，研究报告发布之时该投资对象可能与本公司存在潜在的利益冲突情形；亦或是研究报告发布当时该股票的价值和价格分析存在重大不确定性，缺乏足够的研究依据支持分析师给出明确投资评级；分析师在上述情况下暂停对该股票给予投资评级等信息，投资者需要注意在此报告发布之前曾给予该股票的投资评级、盈利预测及目标价格等信息不再有效。行业投资评级的量化标准行业投资评级的量化标准：看好：相对强于市场基准指数收益率 5%以上；中性：相对于市场基准指数收益率在-5% 5%之间波动；看淡：相对于市场基准指数收益率在-5%以下。未评级：由于在报告发出之时该行业不在本公司研究覆盖范围内，分析师基于当时对该行业的研究状况，未给予投资评级等相关信息。暂停评级：由于研究报告发布当时该行业的投资价值分析存在重大不确定性，缺乏足够的研究依据支持分析师给出明确行业投资评级；分析师在上述情况下暂停对该行业给予投资评级信息，投资者需要注意在此报告发布之前曾给予该行业的投资评级信息不再有效。免责声明 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为什么 AIGC 和 ChatGPT 受欢迎？ -230209（26页）.pdf

研报头条精华AIGC与ChatGPT，为什么火了？一、策略AIGC与ChatGPT，为什么火了？（一）研究框架 1.面向未来十年的产业赛道研究 顶层框架主要用于在新政治经济学理论指引下构建产业政策与理论依据、产业驱动力与变量、产业优先次序以及产业验证信号并结合十四五规划的五维产业发展框架。中长期框架主要用于确定一年及以上时期的产业赛道投资主线。短期框架主要解决一年内的行业轮动问题，认为景气变化是行业短期轮动最核心的依据，把握阶段内行业涨幅胜负手。实战落地框架主要解决投资组合问题，也就是一旦确定产业赛道后如何能够快速自上而下筛选出可以投资的上市公司标的。评估频次：季度，即财报披露日。2.产业驱动力、生命周期与行业竞争格局评估 当前各产业细分替代率：替代空间大 替代进程加快 业绩增长明确。3.部分产业空间预测与产业国产替代进程评估 当前我国自主可控和国产替代梳理。当前处于供给侧出清细分评估。2023年具备持续涨价的细分梳理：（1）具备较强涨价预期：半导体光掩模、风电轴承、动物疫苗、萤石、氟化氢、大尺寸面板、车规级芯片、玉米种子。（2）存在涨势延续概率：生猪养殖、船舶制造、工业机器人及其零部件（包括控制设备、驱动设备、配电设备）、冷冻食品等。（3）有上涨预期但整体涨势或不及2022年水平：石英砂、TDI等。（4）具备涨价反转预期：消费品类（空运、餐饮、酒店、人工景区等）、原料药、大尺寸面板、EVA等。部分产业赛道增速预测。景气投资适用指标：安信策略景气投资有效性指标。目前来看，两者景气和市场收益率相关性正在修复。（二）AIGC为什么火了？从“上网”到“上算”，由“网络世界”至“虚拟现实”1.AIGC与ChatGPT正掀起新一轮的产业浪潮 服务器 网络开启了人人“上网”的时代网络世界不亚于大航海时代所发现的新大陆；算力 算法将开启人人“上算”的时代AI将以场景、应用、内容来创造用户的新需求，元宇宙继而囊括现实物理世界成就真正的虚拟现实（虚拟现实是描述一种状态，即让用户在体验上，能模糊掉虚拟与现实之间的边界）。对“上网”时代的布局，主线是硬件与网络两大方向，硬件以智能手机为代表有经典的产业链，网络则以基础设施与应用（包括内容与场景，以及模式创新）为景气上行。对“上算”时代的布局，将囊括硬件（硬件入口、智能交互硬件）、基础设施（算力、算法）、应用（包括内容与场景，以及模式创新）等。从“上网”到“上算”，由“网络世界”至“虚拟现实”，软硬一体化的趋势极为明显。围绕“上算”的“虚拟现实”，正在产生层出不穷的新概念，比如AI、元宇宙、人形机器人、脑机接口、Web3.0等，我们建立了认知体系与研究框架来界定与理解。认知体系中有四层嵌套关系：首先，AI与虚拟现实均是技术层面它们建立在共识基础上（金融属性）、共识则又基于治理，基于AI与虚拟现实的技术衍生出服务于用户的大生态，元宇宙是生态的一部分；其次，人形机器人/脑机接口与元宇宙分别属于智能最终实现的两种技术路径混合平台与重构时空，同时人形机器人与脑机接口是混合平台这一路径上的不同工程方案以机器为载体、以人为载体去构建混合平台；再次，相较于人形机器人、脑机接口，元宇宙是智能真正实现的内在部分；最后，元宇宙上半场是建设过程，下半场则是囊括现实物理世界的过程，最终实现虚拟现实。2.AIGC为什么这么火？（1）70余年AI进化史从ANI正逐步走向AGI 从1956年达特茅斯会议提出人工智能至今70余年，AI正在从弱人工智能（ANI）走向强人工智能（AGI）：（2）AIGC表明机器不仅能“看懂”，也将能“听懂”（3）NLP技术突破主要源于AI大模型化 （4）AIGC以AI理解/生成能力提升为基础 （5）AI绘画、ChatGPT表现超人意料 3.AIGC火爆下，产业将如何受益？（1）新增场景激活C端场景，有望迎来百花齐放 （2）新增场景或可期待AIGC生成3D内容？随着模型能力的提升，AI或将逐步具备生成3D、数据孪生等内容的能力。（3）新增场景元宇宙时代内容需求将指数级增长 （4）新增场景AIGC将成为元宇宙时代的内容供给范式 （5）新增场景以内容/场景或垂类硬件广泛存在 （6）新增场景AIGC或预示下一个千亿产业机遇 （7）新增场景海外的应用场景及代表公司 （8）新增场景国内的应用场景及代表公司 （9）AI技术价值重估基础大模型具备较强竞争壁垒 AI模型采用预训练-微调的思路，对应在产业应用中逐步形成基础大模型 行业大模型的思路，目前百度、华为等均采用这种布局方式。（10）智算需求增加智能算力或将迈入建设期 人工智能赋能百业，AIGC等新兴场景的发展将进一步提升对大规模算力的需求：在传统的安防、金融、零售等相对成熟的场景中，随着渗透率提升及对精度要求增加，将对大规模算力有更大的需求；目前AR/VR、AIGC等C端场景仍处于发展的初期，随着场景成熟度逐渐提升，其对算力的需求将加速增长。2021年智能算力占比达到50%，在需求牵引及各地政府的支持下，预计2023年智能算力的占比将提升至70%。（11）智算需求增加智能算力或将迈入建设期 截止2022年2月，全国建成并投入运营的智算中心为9个，规划及建设中的智能计算中心为18个。考虑2022年疫情反复影响项目施工进度，预计2023年仍为智能算力中心建设“大年”。4.微软视角下的AIGC与chatGPT （1）chatGPT：微软为何首先选择搜索引擎的切入口 ChatGPT的出现打破了十几年未变的“搜索框”的搜索形式ChatGPT能够将“搜索框式”搜索转变为“对话式”的搜索，用户在与聊天机器人的互动中最终得到满意的答案，对话式搜索的本质在于“场景式”搜索。（2）2026年是上下半场的中间节点 2026年之前是元宇宙的上半场建设过程，2026年之后是元宇宙下半场囊括现实物理世界的过程，2030-2032年元宇宙或将已如移动互联网般深入人心。（3）AI在大框架里的位置 2023年有可能是“预期差”最大的一年，我们认为它将是“硬件的大年”，“硬件”是指MR，即通用硬件设备，“大”年，则是综合考虑了“周期、全局、结构”。（4）判断2023年为硬件的“大”年，综合了周期、全局、结构的考量 AI不管是生产力还是工具，适配的是23年的硬件“大年”。（5）1:4的价值链拆分：3500亿/2500万台，1.4万/台的价值链 （6）虚拟现实与人机协同/共生，是并行的两条“平台转移”路径 微软认为AI将引发一场波及全行业的“平台转移”，就像过去15年向移动设备和云计算平台上转移一样。（7）争议巨大的原因：是对人的替代，无论是蓝领还是白领、金领：1）生成式AI的第一刀，将会挥向传统且创造力低的业务2）AI的替人逻辑也体现在此，当单一、重复的低创造性劳动被人工智能所取代，将会引发3）新一轮人类价值的转移，人们开始思考更需要创造性的劳动形式4）AIGC的爆发，让从事创造性工作的从业者开始有危机感与内容生成相关的业务将会率先被生成式AI所改变我们认为AIGC将掀起一轮新的产业浪潮，从而引来产业链的全面受益。重点标的主要有三类：1）具足“大模型” 云平台“能力的公司，推荐商汤-W、百度、腾讯、阿里巴巴，及有部署能力的格灵深瞳，关注飞天云动；2）拥有可作为搜索引擎工具产品的公司，推荐快手、小米、微盟，关注有赞；推荐芒果超媒、哔哩哔哩，关注国脉文化；3）将其作为内容生产力用于降本增效的公司，影视类推荐万达电影、中国电影，关注华策影视、金逸影视；在线文学类关注中文在线；游戏类推荐恺英网络、三七互娱、完美世界；营销类推荐蓝色光标，关注华扬联众。来源：安信证券-A股核心产业赛道述评月刊（第13期）：AIGC与ChatGPT，为什么火了？二、国内大宗商品怎么看？关注交易节奏（一）去年底开始的大宗价格反弹，主要受宏观情绪和资金面驱动 本轮商品上涨过程中，大宗金融交易属性盖过实体行业属性，说明本轮大宗商品价格反弹，宏观情绪和资金面的推动占据主导作用。（二）预计年内大宗商品价格将迎来一段调整 去年底至今，大类资产交易两条主线，美国经济衰退，中国内需复苏。可以看到，无论是看中国的复苏强度还是美国经济软着陆的可能性，商品市场都已经给到了高度乐观的预期。只是底层来看，海内外的宏观环境今年看来仍然不如预期的明朗。首先海外方面来看，市场和美联储之间的分歧本质仍在于通胀回落的速率。国内方面，3月之后将开始迎来实体数据的兑现期 （三）长周期逻辑下商品的金融属性有望率先修复 周期视角下，大宗商品在全球信用收缩阶段面临的压力不容忽视 复盘本轮商品价格筑顶回落，如果说2022年4月份-2022年11月份是商品杀估值的第一阶段，2022年11月以来延续的海外宽松交易以及国内经济重启持续发酵则恰好吻合了第二阶段“预期修复”的特征。后续商品基本面数据走弱的风险仍主要聚焦在两方面：一则是我们之前提及的，海外通胀若未能按预期回落，海外资产定价逻辑或许需要考虑沿着通胀超预期反弹美联储超预期加息经济深度衰退的反馈机制进行纠偏；二则，需要考虑国内复苏偏弱的风险。主因在于地产从金融端修复到实体投资企稳反弹需要时间，并且本轮地产面临阻梗及需要解决的问题也更加复杂。但是金融属性较强的早周期品种的结构性机会或许在Q2之后逐步凸显。（四）后市展望：商品大类板块表现或出现分化 Q2之后若海内外的宏观环境提供金融属性修复的条件，商品大类板块表现或出现一定分化：黄金和铜等金融属性更强的早周期品种超额收益或将逐步凸显；而以原油为代表的能源类商品更多表现为顺周期属性，全年价格下行的压力更大。至于偏向国内定价的黑色产业链机会仍需更多关注今年地产复苏数据的兑现，若数据兑现节奏仍然偏慢，那么黑色系价格尤其是终端价格仍然会在强政策预期以及疲弱实体数据之间反复摇摆，做多波动率的策略也许相对占优。来源：民生证券-宏观专题研究：大宗商品怎么看？关注交易节奏 三、国际2023年，全球财政重新扩张 2023年美国财政支出预算为1.582万亿美元，其中非国防支出计划8199亿美元，增幅约10%；国防支出计划约7620亿美元，增幅约4.6%。非国防支出计划的主体延续了就业法案的内容，旨在减轻美国家庭因新冠疫情、通胀导致的生活压力，并对社区家庭进行了大量补助（营养计划、住房、家庭能源成本和大学负担援助）。其中增长较为突出有，军队建设支出增长16.3%，环境支出增长12.3%，劳工、医疗、教育支出增长9.7%。2023财年第一季度联邦政府财政赤字达到4210亿美元，同比增加12%，主要原因是与通胀攀升相关的支出增加，其中美国公共债务的利息支付较上年同期增加了570亿美元，同比增速37%，我们预计2023年美国财政赤字可能实际增长16%。为大幅增长的财政赤字融资，2023年美国财政部的国债净发行量将增长52.7%，达到1.86万亿美元。欧洲国家2023年增加的财政支出主要用于能源补贴和国防军事。德国政府2023年常规财政支出预算为4762.9亿欧元，较2022年预算下降约3.9%，其中军费开支501亿欧元，较上年变化不大，医疗健康预算大幅削减62%至244.8亿欧元。法国政府2023年财政支出计划15640亿欧元，相比2022年增加2.8%（可比项减少1.5%）。财政预算支出增加的部分主要用于能源补贴和军费。意大利政府2023年财政支出预算10485亿欧元，相比2022年增长1.9%，增加的预算主要用于能源通胀补贴和减税。英国政府2023年财政支出计划11988亿英镑，增速1.4%，增幅主要用于国防（增加2.9%至500亿英镑）和对低收入人群的补助。日本2023财年财政支出计划超过110万亿日元，增幅6.3%，其中总体国防预算增加至6.8万亿日元，涨幅约26.4%。全球经济从2021年下半年开始见顶放缓，从主要国家2023年财政计划的再扩张倾向可以看出，尽管有通胀粘性和劳动力市场韧性的制掣，但持续一年的紧缩周期大概率将在2023年暂时结束，财政走在货币之前，率先转向宽松。来源：天风证券-主要海外国家财政一览：2023年，全球财政重新扩张 四、行业（一）东方证券-计算机行业：ChatGPT引领AI新浪潮，AIGC商业化启程 （二）开源证券-电力设备和新能源行业投资策略：特高压建设有望迎来高峰期，解决清洁能源跨区互济瓶颈 （三）首创证券-国防军工行业简评报告：多家公司发布业绩预告，细分板块分化严重 研报来源慧博投资分析APP慧博官网：

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国内长视频行业：降本增效为主旋律 内容是核心竞争力-230209(34页).pdf

本报告由中信建投证券股份有限公司在中华人民共和国（仅为本报告目的，不包括香港、澳门、台湾）提供。在遵守适用的法律法规情况下，本报告亦可能由中信建投（国际）证券有限公司在香港提供。同时请参阅最后一页的重要声明。证券研究报告证券研究报告海外行业深度海外行业深度 国内长视频行业：降本增效为主旋律，国内长视频行业：降本增效为主旋律，内容是核心竞争力内容是核心竞争力 核心观点：2022 年是长视频行业具有重大意义的一年，在具有挑战的外部环境下，降本增效成为长视频行业的共同主题，行业重点从抢占市场份额转向提升运营效率。爱奇艺、腾讯视频均实现了首次盈利，优酷也连续 6 个季度实现亏损收窄。头部平台或盈利或减亏意味着，经过一段时间策略调整，中国长视频行业正在进入更加健康和理性的发展新周期。2022 年以来，在具有挑战的外部环境下，降本增效成为长视频行业的共同主题，行业重点从抢占市场份额转向提升运营效率，实现盈利。这一转向我们认为有以下原因：1 1）从行业格局看，竞争趋稳。）从行业格局看，竞争趋稳。赛道间：各个数字媒体类型用户格局维持稳定，时长和流量亦逐渐趋稳，存量竞争持续，长视频流量被短视频侵蚀问题得到缓解，同时长短视频逐步从竞争走向竞合；而赛道内竞争格局相对稳定，爱奇艺、腾讯、优酷、芒果 TV 呈现“2 2”的格局，短期内各平台用户量和时长随重点内容上线、爆款带动以及节假日影响而存在小幅波动，呈现此消彼长的态势，在整体长视频流量基本平稳，增量空间有限的背景下，国内长视频的竞争逐渐从激烈向温和转变，盈利成为行业共识。2 2）从投入角度看，“烧钱”不可持续。）从投入角度看，“烧钱”不可持续。2022 年以前，除芒果外，爱奇艺、腾讯视频、优酷均处于亏损状态，亏损的根本原因在于高昂的内容成本无法下降，爱奇艺 2021 年内容成本现金投入近 200 亿元，爱优腾三家近十年共计投入超过 1000 亿元人民币，唯一盈利的芒果则是受益于背靠湖南广电，拥有相对低廉的内容成本。而随着 2021-2022 年在监管、疫情、经济的多方因素下，行业大环境遇冷，资本市场对于长视频平台的亏损容忍度下降，市场亟待看到的是平台的盈利。此外，融资环境变差，在连年亏损下，各平台的现金流也出现一定压力，综合以上几点原因，降本增效是必由之路，各个平台都选择转向聚焦主业，实现盈利。2022 年是长视频行业具有重大意义的一年，爱奇艺、腾讯均实现了首次盈利，优酷也连续 6 个季度实现亏损收窄。头部平台或盈利或减亏意味着，经过一段时间策略调整，中国长视频行业正在进入更加健康和理性的发展新周期。我们以爱奇艺为例进行分析，发现其盈利的主因是毛利率的明显改善，而毛利率的改善更多靠内容成本的缩减，而后期 UE 如何改善，收入和成本如何考量，这是一个需要探究的核心问题。维持维持 强于大市强于大市 孙晓磊 SAC 执证编号:S1440519080005 SFC 中央编号:BOS358 崔世峰 SAC 执证编号:S1440521100004 发布日期：2023 年 02 月 09 日 市场表现市场表现 相关研究报告相关研究报告 2022-12-02【中信建投 TMT 及海外研究】:户外广告专题：品牌成长与规模溢价 2022-11-17【中信建投海外研究】:出口电商系列三：电商跨境出海，巨头领航扬帆 2022-10-18【中信建投海外研究】:互联网出海破局者，再造一个抖音 字节跳动系列研究之四（Tiktok 篇）2022-10-12【中信建投海外研究】:出口电商系列二：便携式储能走向全球，是“中国制造 全球营销”的代表，亦是产品出海的趋势 2022-09-07【中信建投海外研究】:出口电商系列一：跨境生态持续完善，中国品牌走向全球-41%-31%-21%-11%-1%9 22/2/92022/3/92022/4/92022/5/92022/6/92022/7/92022/8/92022/9/92022/10/92022/11/92022/12/92023/1/9传媒恒生指数海外研究海外研究 海外行业深度报告 互联网电商互联网电商 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 影响长视频平台的核心订阅商业模式无非三个指标：内容成本、付费用户规模、单用户付费水平。而这三个核心因素又存在一定的制约关系。通过中美对比分析，我们认为由于国内演员片酬较高及中美影视产业链差异的影响，国内影视上游的内容制作成本相比终端需求的购买力仍然太高，因此在短期内，在保证内容质量的情况下，成本端下降难度较大，盈利更多要关注单用户付费水平提升 长视频行业涨价模式确立，各平台进入“长视频行业涨价模式确立，各平台进入“25 元”区间。元”区间。2020 年以来，长视频行业已然进入提价周期，各长视频龙头在 2021 年及 2022 年相继再次提价，基本形成每年提价一次规律，头部平台价格趋于统一。为何长视频平台在 2019 年前无法提价，而 2020 年之后便进入稳定提价周期？综合上述分析，我们认为有三点：1）行业流量红利消失，用户及付费用户增长速度变缓，规模即将见顶；2）竞争趋缓，行业提价成为共识，而平台间提价互相参考；3）平台盈利诉求提升，但短期看，成本端下降难度较大，若想盈利只能提高单用户付费水平。通过对各个平台提价后会员数量变化的分析，我们发现会员价格提升对会员规模影响比较有限通过对各个平台提价后会员数量变化的分析，我们发现会员价格提升对会员规模影响比较有限，现阶段用，现阶段用户对价格的敏感度较低户对价格的敏感度较低。究其原因，我们认为，首先，由于国内长视频平台消费横向低于其他泛娱乐平台，纵向低于海外平台奈飞，因而仍然具有提价逻辑，用户对提价相对不敏感；其次，平台深度绑定付费用户，付费消费习惯逐渐养成，会员使用粘性高于普通用户；第三，平台维持头部且优质内容的供给，持续打造差异化。任何产品/服务的消费都不能逃脱用户在一定可支配收入下的支付意愿天花板，毕竟长视频仍然属于可选消费，对大多数用户来说，即使前期不明显，但对价格的敏感多多少少都是存在的。通过对比中美家庭长视频付费水平在家庭可支配收入中的占比，我们来测算国内视频平台用户的消费潜力头部长视频平台 ARPPU 天花板有望达到 23 元/月，提价仍有空间。在具有挑战的外部环境下，各平台更加关注长期发展的可持续性及盈利能力提升，降本增效成为 2022 年行业关键词。做好优质内容是长视频平台发展的核心驱动力，而内容成本投入的减少是否会影响内容供给和质量，从而影响平台可持续性发展，这也是我们要探究的核心问题之一。我们认为，一方面，演员“限薪令”不断升级，推动行业内容成本持续优化，同时剧集采买模式也从版权剧向分账和定制剧迁移，这两者本就内生性优化了行业的内容成本，因此这部分内容投入减少并不会影响优质内容供给。另一方面，平台以更合理的内容策略调整驱动内容 ROI 持续提升，新的内容策略集中在聚焦头部内容，减少高投入、低效的腰尾部内容，持续带动内容 ROI 提升，减量而提质，驱动公司经营业绩持续改善，同时自制能力的持续提升将有利于各个平台形成差异化布局，并实现稳定、高质量的内容供给。综上，我们倾向于认为短期内容成本的下降并不会影响到内容质量和长期可持续发展。nXiXsUvXmWeX9W9UrU9YbRcMbRmOmMoMnOfQmMmOeRnMmMaQpPuMMYnQvMMYrRxP 海外行业深度报告 互联网电商互联网电商 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 目录目录 一、长视频行业：用户格局稳定，降本增效成为共同主题.1 1.1 行业格局稳定，竞争趋缓.1 1.2“烧钱”不可持续.4 二、长视频 UE 有无提升空间？.7 2.1 长视频行业如何扭亏？.7 2.2 收入端：提价趋势确立，驱动业绩增长.10 2.2.1 提价历史复盘：多平台先后提价，价格趋于统一.10 2.2.2 提价是否对会员数量有影响？-用户对价格敏感度较低.11 2.2.3 提价结果：腾讯爱奇艺提价拉动会员收入提升，芒果暂以用户增长为重.14 2.2.4 提价还有空间吗？-对标 Netflix 仍有提升空间.15 2.3 成本端：多维度控本，减量增质.16 2.3.1 降本增效成为共同主题，注重长期发展持续性.16 2.3.2 内容成本下降是否会影响内容质量？.17 附录：2023 年各视频平台片单.23 图表目录图表目录 图表 1：在线视频总时长占比下降趋势放缓.1 图表 2：2021-2022 数字内容订阅行业 MAU 变化（百万人）.1 图表 3：长短视频合作情况.2 图表 4：2018M1-2022M12 长视频平台 MAU（百万人）.3 图表 5：2018M1-2022M12 长视频平台 DAU（百万人）.3 图表 6：长视频平台人均单日使用时长（分钟）.3 图表 7：长视频平台国内 iOS 端下载量变化（万次）.3 图表 8：2022 年 9 月 在线视频行业 APP ARR 三力拆分.4 图表 9：爱奇艺内容现金投入：版权采购 自制（百万元）.4 图表 10：爱奇艺经营性现金流（百万元）.4 图表 11：爱奇艺 2022Q1 利润转正.5 图表 12：芒果超媒净利润及净利率.5 图表 13：头部平台业务精简及裁员情况.6 图表 14：爱奇艺利润率不断升高（百万元）.7 图表 15：爱奇艺毛利率持续上涨.7 图表 16：假设收入/营业成本维持 2019Q3 水平毛利率情况.8 图表 17：假设收入/营业成本维持 2021Q3 水平毛利率情况.8 图表 18：爱奇艺订阅会员数与 ARPPU 相关性.8 图表 19：爱奇艺订阅会员数增速与 ARPPU 增速相关性.8 图表 20：Netflix 收入增速自 2017 年后普遍高于投入增速.9 图表 21：Netflix 单用户投入成本 vs 单用户收入增速.9 海外行业深度报告 互联网电商互联网电商 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 图表 22：爱奇艺与奈飞的单用户内容成本率对比.9 图表 23：爱优腾芒提价历史.10 图表 24：爱奇艺付费会员数及净增量（百万人）.11 图表 25：腾讯视频付费会员数及净增量（百万人）.11 图表 26：芒果 TV 付费会员数及净增量（百万人）.12 图表 27：各泛娱乐行业 ARPPU 对比（元）.12 图表 28：爱奇艺与奈飞平均 ARPPU 对比（元）.12 图表 29：2022 年 9 月在线视频行业头部 APP 付费用户 VS 整体用户 月人均使用时长.13 图表 30：2021 及 2022 年全网剧集正片有效播放（亿）.13 图表 31：2021 及 2022 年全网剧集会员内容有效播放（亿）.13 图表 32：分平台全网剧集正片有效播放（亿）.14 图表 33：分平台全网剧集会员内容有效播放（亿）.14 图表 34：爱奇艺 ARPPU 持续提升.14 图表 35：爱奇艺会员收入及增速.14 图表 36：芒果 TV ARPPU 有所下滑.15 图表 37：芒果 TV 互联网视频收入及增速.15 图表 38：国内视频平台付费天花板测算（对标 Netflix）.15 图表 39：爱奇艺内容成本持续下降.16 图表 40：爱奇艺 22 年销售及行政、研发费用率同比下降.16 图表 41：芒果超媒营业成本同比下降.16 图表 42：芒果超媒销售及行政、研发费用率同比下降（百万元）.16 图表 43：耐看娱乐不同类型剧集毛利率水平.17 图表 44：2016-2026E 按类型划分的网剧数量（部）.18 图表 45：2016-2026E 按类型划分的网剧占比（%）.18 图表 46：“限薪令”出台前后视频平台剧集价格对比.18 图表 47：爱奇艺主要剧集工作室及代表作.19 图表 48：爱奇艺主要综艺工作室及代表作.20 图表 49：腾讯视频主要综艺工作室及代表作.20 图表 50：腾讯视频综艺工作室.21 图表 51：优酷主要综艺工作室及代表作.21 图表 52：爱奇艺自制内容及版权情况（十亿元）.22 图表 53：上新剧排播分布.22 图表 54：各平台上新剧独播部数占比.22 图表 55：2023 年爱奇艺片单.23 图表 56：2023 年腾讯视频片单.24 图表 57：2023 年优酷片单.26 图表 58：2023 年芒果 TV 片单.27 1 海外行业深度报告 互联网电商互联网电商 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 一、长视频行业：用户格局稳定，降本增效成为共同主题一、长视频行业：用户格局稳定，降本增效成为共同主题 2022 年以来，在具有挑战的外部环境下，降本增效成为长视频行业的共同主题，行业重点从抢占市场份额转向提升运营效率，实现盈利。这一转向我们认为有以下几点原因：1）从行业从行业格局看，竞争趋稳。格局看，竞争趋稳。赛道间：各个数字媒体类型用户格局维持稳定，时长和流量亦逐渐趋稳，存量竞争持续，长视频流量被短视频侵蚀问题得到缓解，同时长短视频逐步从竞争走向竞合；而赛道内竞争格局相对稳定，爱奇艺、腾讯、优酷、芒果 TV 呈现“2 2”的格局，短期内各平台用户量和时长随重点内容上线、爆款带动以及节假日影响而存在小幅波动，呈现此消彼长的态势，在整体长视频流量基本平稳，增量空间有限的背景下，国内长视频的竞争逐渐从激烈向温和转变，盈利成为行业共识。2）从投入角度看，“烧钱”不可持续。从投入角度看，“烧钱”不可持续。2022 年以前，除芒果外，爱奇艺、腾讯视频、优酷均处于亏损状态，亏损的根本原因在于高昂的内容成本无法下降，爱奇艺 2021 年内容成本现金投入近 200 亿元，爱优腾三家近十年共计投入超过 1000 亿元人民币，唯一盈利的芒果则是受益于背靠湖南广电，拥有相对低廉的内容成本。而随着 2021-2022 年在监管、疫情、经济的多方因素下，行业大环境遇冷，资本市场对于长视频平台的亏损容忍度下降，市场亟待看到的是平台的盈利。此外，融资环境变差，在连年亏损下，各平台的现金流也出现一定压力，综合以上几点原因，降本增效是必由之路，各个平台都选择转向聚焦主业，实现盈利。1.1 行业格局稳定，竞争趋缓行业格局稳定，竞争趋缓 赛道间竞争：渠道格局相对稳定赛道间竞争：渠道格局相对稳定。从总流量看，短视频增速逐渐减缓，对长视频的流量侵蚀减弱，长视频流量逐渐趋于稳定状态。根据 Questmobile 数据，2020年 9 月至 2021 年9 月，短视频用户使用总时长占比从 20.1%大幅提升至 26.7%，提升 6.5 pcts，而从 2021 年 9 月至 2022 年 9 月，总时长占比仅提升 0.8 pct，短视频用户流量增速整体放缓，赛道格局逐步进入阶段性稳态，因而在线视频用户总时长占比 2022 年仅下降 0.1 pct。从用户规模看，四个典型数字订阅内容行业的活跃用户规模在过去一年趋向稳定，未出现明显浮动，在体量上长视频仍然拥有稳定且庞大的用户规模，总月活用户维持在 8.5 亿-9.2 亿之间。图表图表1：在线视频总时长占比下降趋势放缓在线视频总时长占比下降趋势放缓 图表图表2：2021-2022 数字内容数字内容订阅行业订阅行业 MAU 变化变化（百万人）（百万人）资料来源：Quest mobile，中信建投（仅包含移动端数据）资料来源：Quest mobile，中信建投（仅包含移动端数据）20.1&.7.5%7.2%6.8%6.7%0.0 .0.0.0.00.0 20-092021-092022-09短视频即时通讯综合资讯在线视频综合电商其他9.0 8.8 8.7 8.6 9.2 9.1 8.6 8.6 8.5 8.4 8.8 9.0 8.7 02468102021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-09在线视频在线音乐在线阅读网络音频 2 海外行业深度报告 互联网电商互联网电商 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 赛道间从竞争走向竞合。赛道间从竞争走向竞合。一方面包括长短视频在内的互联网流量红利逐步见顶，长短视频开始互相渗透，需要通过不同形式的内容相互补充；另一方面版权保护趋于规范和严厉，短视频二创侵权有望得到进一步监督。2022 年 10 月 26 日，西安市中级人民法院就云南虫谷案作出一审判决。法院认为，抖音平台上有大量用户对涉案作品实施了侵权行为，抖音属于帮助侵权，应立即采取有效措施删除、过滤、拦截相关视频，并赔偿腾讯经济损失及合理费用 3240 余万元，这是长短视频版权之争中最严厉的一次处罚。因此我们看到自 2021 年起，长短视频平台开始试行合作，前期以腰部平台为主，例如搜狐和抖音，乐视、风行和快手，而 22 年中，两大头部平台爱奇艺和抖音宣布达成合作，计划围绕长视频内容的二次创作与推广等方面展开探索。此次合作一方面将利用抖音的流量优势，发挥短视频平台宣发能力，为爱奇艺注入新的流量，另一方面，也有望为长视频打开新的收入增长空间。此次合作将推动影视内容知识产权的使用向规范化方向发展，也意味着长短视频平台之间将逐步走向共赢局面，视频行业良性发展将是长期趋势。图表图表3：长短视频合作情况长短视频合作情况 长视频长视频 短视频短视频 合作内容合作内容 合作成效合作成效/优势优势 爱奇艺 抖音“将围绕长视频内容的二次创作与推广等方面展开探索”，合作的内容包括爱奇艺“内容资产中拥有信息网络传播权及转授权的长视频内容”爱奇艺 Q3 其他收入 13 亿元，同比增长 27%，主要归因于第三方合作产生的收入。针对爱奇艺合作片单发出的二创激励计划开展两个月后，活动结束实现总播放量 629 亿，总点赞量 5.4 亿，热点话题 70 个；近 40%的百万级别影视原创作者参与活动投稿，播放量破千万的爆款视频有 568 个，破亿播放视频 7 个。数据显示，开放合作后，爱奇艺上的很多经典剧集播放量剧增。风行 快手 快手用户可以将自己的视频发布到风行视频网站上，推广自己的视频，风行上的用户可以将自己的视频发布到快手上，同时在发布视频时需要将风行的小程序挂上，推广风行视频 快手开放放映厅频道上线风行小程序，为其带来累计注册用户 40万，每日观看量高达 300 万，忠粉播放时长达 100 分钟 搜狐 抖音 抖音获得搜狐全部自制影视作品二次创作相关授权，抖音平台的用户可以对这些作品进行二次创作，包括重新剪辑、编排或改编 抖音搜索搜狐视频相关二创内容如法医秦明，会在靠前的位置推送搜狐视频 APP 的下载端口为平台引流 乐视 快手 快手放映厅则直接接入了平台小程序，比如观看甄嬛传会直接跳到乐视视频的小程序页面，直接为平台提供流量 自制剧太子妃升职记 心理罪 2、独播剧那金花和她的女婿一个鬼子都不留 奇葩一家亲等影视剧相关短视频在快手平台的播放量近 2 亿 资料来源：各公司官网，中信建投 赛道内竞争：赛道内竞争：“2 2”格局稳定，竞争趋缓。”格局稳定，竞争趋缓。中国的流媒体行业竞争从激烈走向温和，早年间有 PPS、土豆、乐视、搜狐等数十家平台相继涌入这个赛道，在激烈的竞争环境下，各个平台秉持“资金为王”的模式，以烧钱来抢夺市场和用户，近几年随着短视频等其他娱乐形态在移动端对用户和时长产生明显冲击，长视频进入温和阶段。随着优酷用户规模的下滑和芒果的快速发展，国内长视频的格局从原有的爱奇艺、优酷、腾讯视频三足鼎立逐步变化到“2 2”情况，短期内各平台用户量和时长随重点内容上线、爆款带动以及节假日影响而存在小幅波动，呈现此消彼长的态势，但整体竞争格局相对稳定。在流量增长有限的，存量竞争状态持续的情况下，深耕现有用户、强化内容精耕细作及提升精细化运营管理将成为各平台重点任务。从用户规模和时长来看，爱奇艺与腾讯视频稳定保持在第一梯队，优酷、芒果 TV 位于第二梯队。爱奇艺、腾讯视频 MAU 维持在 4-6 亿体量，用户时长在 70-90 分钟。而优酷 MAU 从 2018 年 4-5 亿下滑至 2 亿左右，3 海外行业深度报告 互联网电商互联网电商 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 滑落至第二梯队，芒果 TV 由于其优质的综艺内容逆势保持增长，目前与优酷体量相当，维持在 2-3 亿用户体量。从最新情况看，2022 年下半年起爱奇艺与腾讯视频出现一定程度的分化，2022 年 7 月至 12 月爱奇艺 MAU环比增速转正，用户活跃度明显提升，7 月至 12 月 DAU 环比增速分别 3%/14%/4%/4%/5%/8%，时长也从 72 分钟大幅提升至 90 分钟，达到 2019 年以来最高水平。爱奇艺的强劲增长主要源于爆款的拉动，优质内容供给驱动用户粘性增长与流量回暖，2022 年至今先后诞生了人世间 苍兰诀 罚罪 卿卿日常 风吹半夏 狂飙六部热度值破万的作品，十多部热度破 9000 的爆款剧集，基本实现实现“月月有爆款”的霸屏能力。与以往平均 1-2 年才能诞生一部破万剧的情况相比，22 年爱奇艺可以说是迎来了高品质大剧的集中收获期。根据 Quest mobile，截至 2022 年 12 月爱奇艺 MAU 为 5.07 亿（yoy 5%），位列第一，腾讯视频 MAU 为 3.96亿（yoy-11%），芒果 TV MAU 为 2.62 亿，优酷 MAU 为 2.41 亿（yoy 1%）。图表图表4：2018M1-2022M12 长视频平台长视频平台 MAU（百万人）（百万人）图表图表5：2018M1-2022M12 长视频平台长视频平台 DAU（百万人）（百万人）资料来源：Quest mobile，中信建投（仅包含移动端数据）资料来源：Quest mobile，中信建投（仅包含移动端数据）从用户时长来看，爱奇艺由于 22 年下半年爆款带动，时长冲高至 90min，腾讯及芒果均可以保持 70-80min的用户时长，整体腾讯/爱奇艺/芒果 TV 位于同一量级，优酷时长相对略低，保持在 50-60min。图表图表6：长视频平台长视频平台人均单日使用时长人均单日使用时长（分钟分钟）图表图表7：长视频平台国内长视频平台国内 iOS 端下载量变化（万次）端下载量变化（万次）资料来源：Quest mobile，中信建投 资料来源：Sensor Tower，中信建投 396 507 262-100 200 300 400 500 600 7002018M12018M52018M92019M12019M52019M92020M12020M52020M92021M12021M52021M92022M12022M52022M9腾讯视频爱奇艺优酷芒果TV73 97 40-20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1602018M12018M42018M72018M102019M12019M42019M72019M102020M12020M42020M72020M102021M12021M42021M72021M102022M12022M42022M72022M10腾讯视频爱奇艺优酷芒果TV75 90 55 72 40 50 60 70 80 90 1002018M12018M42018M72018M102019M12019M42019M72019M102020M12020M42020M72020M102021M12021M42021M72021M102022M12022M42022M72022M10腾讯视频爱奇艺优酷芒果TV 40 140 240 340 440 540 640腾讯视频爱奇艺优酷芒果TV 4 海外行业深度报告 互联网电商互联网电商 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 爱优腾芒等头部平台进入成熟期阶段，持续活跃用户规模稳定，腰部爱优腾芒等头部平台进入成熟期阶段，持续活跃用户规模稳定，腰部 APP 竞争相对较激烈，侧重吸引更多竞争相对较激烈，侧重吸引更多新安装用户。新安装用户。根据 Questmobile ARR 三力模型，持久力代表用户持续性、强忠诚的使用，成长力和唤醒力则表示 App 在获取增量用户方面的能力，据统计，爱优腾芒的持久力超过 70%，远高于平均水平 55%，而在唤醒力和成长力方面均低于中小平台。图表图表8：2022 年年 9 月月 在线视频行业在线视频行业 APP ARR 三力拆分三力拆分 资料来源：Quest mobile，中信建投（唤醒力为沉默唤醒规模/MAU,持久力为持续活跃规模/MAU，气泡大小为成长力，指新安装活跃规模/MAU）1.2“烧钱”不可持续“烧钱”不可持续 2022 年以前，除芒果外，爱奇艺、腾讯视频、优酷均处于亏损状态。年以前，除芒果外，爱奇艺、腾讯视频、优酷均处于亏损状态。以爱奇艺为例，从 2016 年起公司采用类似于奈飞的内容战略：加大内容投入，通过优质内容吸引用户，爱奇艺的内容现金投入从 2016 年的 60 亿到 2021 年飙升至接近 200 亿元，与此同时的是现金流缺口不断扩大（2020 年以前爱奇艺自制内容现金投入计入经营性现金流，版权采购的现金投入计入投资性现金流，2020 年以后自制内容 版权采购现金均计入经营性现金流）。优酷和腾讯视频也是类似的情况，据晚点报道，爱优腾三家近十年共计投入超过 1000 亿元人民币。图表图表9：爱奇艺内容现金投入：版权采购爱奇艺内容现金投入：版权采购 自制（百万元）自制（百万元）图表图表10：爱奇艺经营性现金流（百万元）爱奇艺经营性现金流（百万元）资料来源：爱奇艺财报，中信建投 资料来源：爱奇艺财报，中信建投(9,087)(13,042)(11,958)(10,528)(9,731)(872)(1,962)(4,545)(3,596)(6,728)(10,492)-25,000-20,000-15,000-10,000-5,0000201620172018201920202021版权采购现金投入自制内容现金投入(4051)(6649)(18065)(7843)(5252)(4690)(1237)(22000)(17000)(12000)(7000)(2000)3000经营性现金流投资性现金流经营性 投资性现金流 5 海外行业深度报告 互联网电商互联网电商 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 芒果由于背靠湖南广电，成为芒果由于背靠湖南广电，成为 22 年以前唯一一家盈利的长视频平台。年以前唯一一家盈利的长视频平台。简单来说，在与各平台类似的商业逻辑下，芒果能够实现盈利主要原因在于相对低廉的内容成本。2014 年，芒果背后的湖南广电开始发挥作用，与快乐阳光签署协议，以低价售卖湖南台节目的独播权。2015 到 2017 年，芒果 TV 从湖南台采购的版权价格不到4 亿。随后，这一协议被延续至 2020 年，之后三年的价格分别是 4.51 亿、4.961 亿和 5.4571 亿。2020 年二者再次续签协议，快乐阳光以每年 5.46 亿的价格打包购买 2021 到 2025 年湖南卫视的剧目、节目以及音频的网络独播权，锁定了未来五年主要采购成本。图表图表11：爱奇艺爱奇艺 2022Q1 利润转正利润转正 图表图表12：芒果超媒芒果超媒净利润及净利率净利润及净利率 资料来源：公司公告，中信建投 资料来源：公司公告，中信建投 近两年互联网行业监管趋严，疫情持续反复导致宏观经济表现疲弱，在外部环境挑战尤为严峻的情况下，资本市场对于长视频平台的亏损容忍度下降，市场亟待看到的是平台的盈利。在行业遇冷的时期，融资环境也没有之前那么充裕，连年亏损下，各平台的现金流也出现一定压力，以爱奇艺为例，即使在 22 年 Q3 自由现金流转正的前提下，仍然缺少现金子弹，截至 2022Q3 公司账上现金及现金等价物刚过 50 亿元，而 12 个月内短期贷款 短期可转债接近 125 亿元，近期向太盟集团融资 5 亿美元 4.4 亿美元 ADS 增发使得爱奇艺共募资 63.4亿元人民币，短期债务风险基本解除，但现金流仍然不宽裕。而市场遇冷的情况下，投资人对亏损的新业务较为谨慎，上述原因综合之下，爱优腾都不约而同地选择转而市场遇冷的情况下，投资人对亏损的新业务较为谨慎，上述原因综合之下，爱优腾都不约而同地选择转向聚焦主业，降本增效和实现盈利。向聚焦主业，降本增效和实现盈利。2021 年底 12 月 1 日，爱奇艺裁员 20%，按照 2020 年底的 7721 名员工数量来计算，爱奇艺将裁掉 1544 员工。业务线收缩，爱奇艺研究院、爱奇艺游戏中心等亏损部门几乎全员被裁，短视频产品随刻则和其他产品合并。腾讯去年一整年 PCG 开展了自成立以来最大规模的降本增效：事业群人数下降至不足 1 万人；各业务的规模和预算大幅压缩；中台建设和技术开发成本也不断下降，比如带宽成本从前一年的 100 亿元降至了 75 亿元左右。腾讯视频在过去一年不仅大幅度减少了版权投入，也尝试从各个维环节降低成本。比如在与版权方合作的时候，它开启了一个名为“后验激励”的模式，即平台先支付基础价，根据内容播出的效果再安排后续激励，以降低平台的风险。0%5 %004006008001,0002018 Q12018 Q22018 Q32018 Q42019 Q12019 Q22019 Q32019 Q42020 Q12020 Q22020 Q32020 Q42021 Q12021 Q22021 Q32021 Q42022 Q12022 Q22022 Q3净利润(百万元)净利率 6 海外行业深度报告 互联网电商互联网电商 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 图表图表13：头部平台业务精简及裁员情况头部平台业务精简及裁员情况 平台平台 日期日期 事业部事业部/事业线事业线 优化内容优化内容 爱奇艺 2021/12/1 爱奇艺研究院、游戏中心、爱奇艺智能、内容部门、市场、投放、渠道合作部门 爱奇艺收缩预算，市场、投放、渠道合作等成本部门裁员比例在 30%-50%，而爱奇艺研究院、爱奇艺游戏中心等部门裁员比例较高，短视频产品随刻会和其他产品合并，内容部门的裁员比例相对较低。2022/6/2 电商、硬件等 CEO 龚宇首次回应，去年裁员比例约为 20%，远低于外界猜测，且决策的核心目的是提升效率。据了解，此次被爱奇艺剥离的业务包括电商和硬件等相对边缘的领域。腾讯视频 2022/3/15 游戏事业部 CSIG（云与智慧产业事业群）、PCG（平台与内容事业群）、IEG（互动娱乐事业群）腾讯 PCG 多个业务部门都在进行不同比例的人员裁撤，同时可能对部分边缘项目进行栽撤，不过整体裁撤比例不高，不涉及核心业务。2022/5/19 体育业务部 腾讯体育此次裁员 100 人左右，裁员比例达 1/3，同时，体育版权运营组、体育经纪组、赛事直播组、节目组等具备变现能力的业务组暂时保留。2022/5/20 腾讯游戏 目前大部分的事业群都在裁员，包括腾讯云、游戏业务、广告业务、内容业务等，投资部门暂未裁员。优酷 2022/3/17 儿童节目 阿里大文娱版块的优酷视频本次有一定比例的人员裁减，包括计划解在一个负责制作儿童节目的团队。资料来源：网络视听生态圈，财联社，36氪，中信建投 7 海外行业深度报告 互联网电商互联网电商 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 二、长视频二、长视频 UE 有无提升空间？有无提升空间？2.1 长视频行业如何扭亏？长视频行业如何扭亏？2022 年是长视频行业具有重大意义的一年，爱奇艺、腾讯均实现了首次盈利，优酷亏损也连续收窄。年是长视频行业具有重大意义的一年，爱奇艺、腾讯均实现了首次盈利，优酷亏损也连续收窄。2022年一季度，爱奇艺实现归母净利润 1.69 亿元人民币，non-GAAP 归母净利润 1.62 亿元人民币，为上市以来首次实现财报和 Non-GAAP 口径下单季度盈利，通过三个季度的努力，爱奇艺完成“标志性逆转”，连续三个季度实现运营盈利，且利润水平持续提升。腾讯视频 2022 年全年收入超百亿元，并从 10 月起开始实现盈利，优酷通过审慎投资与内容及制作能力，持续改善运营效率，亏损连续六个季度同比收窄。头部平台或盈利或减亏意味着，经过一段时间策略调整，中国长视频行业正在进入更加健康和理性的发展新周期。图表图表14：爱奇艺利润率不断升高（百万元）爱奇艺利润率不断升高（百万元）图表图表15：爱奇艺毛利率持续上涨爱奇艺毛利率持续上涨 资料来源：公司公告，中信建投 资料来源：公司公告，中信建投 我们以爱奇艺为例进行分析，发现其盈利的主因是毛利率的明显改善，其毛利率在 2019Q3-2020Q3 以及2021Q3 至今分别有两次明显的上涨。在过去四个季度，公司毛利率持续增长，21Q3/21Q4/22Q1/22Q2/22Q3 毛利率分别 7%/12%/18%/21%/24%，四个季度毛利增长 16 pcts。毛利率提升主要归因于内容成本的下降。毛利率提升主要归因于内容成本的下降。营业成本的拆分中，内容成本是长视频最大的成本支出项，占到总营业成本的 75%左右且基本保持稳定比例，22Q3 爱奇艺的内容摊销成本为 42 亿元（yoy-18.9%）。为了更进一步探究 2019Q3-2020Q3 及 2021Q3 至今两个阶段爱奇艺毛利下降的详细原因，究竟是归因于收入端的提升，还是成本绝对值的下降，我们做了控制变量的分析。我们分别以 2019 年 Q3 及 2021 年 Q3 为参考，分别假设收入不变以及营业成本不变，我们发现 2019 年 Q3-Q4 的毛利率上涨是由收入上升 内容成本下降共同带来的，而2020Q1 以后毛利率的提升基本都是靠内容成本下降所驱动的。因此我们看到爱奇艺在严控内容支出，保证内容ROI 的推进下，实现了盈利目标。4.1%-5.3%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0 0P%-10000-8000-6000-4000-200002000400060008000100002018Q12018Q22018Q32018Q42019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q3营业收入营业成本经营利润率净亏损率-30%-20%-10%0 0%-2,000-1,500-1,000-500-500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500毛利润（百万元）毛利率 8 海外行业深度报告 互联网电商互联网电商 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 图表图表16：假设收入假设收入/营业成本维持营业成本维持 2019Q3 水平毛利率情况水平毛利率情况 图表图表17：假设收入假设收入/营业成本维持营业成本维持 2021Q3 水平毛利率情况水平毛利率情况 资料来源：公司公告，中信建投测算（分别假设收入及营业成本维持2019Q3水平不变毛利率偏移情况）资料来源：公司公告，中信建投（分别假设收入及营业成本维持2021Q3水平不变毛利率偏移情况）前期的扭亏更多靠内容成本的缩减，而后期 UE 如何改善，收入和成本如何考量，这是一个需要探究的核心问题。影响长视频平台的核心订阅商业模式无非三个指标：内容成本、付费用户规模、单用户付费水平。而影响长视频平台的核心订阅商业模式无非三个指标：内容成本、付费用户规模、单用户付费水平。而这三个核心因素又存在一定的制约关系这三个核心因素又存在一定的制约关系：用户规模的增长依赖与优质内容，而优质内容有需要较高的内容成本投入，而同样地，平台的用户规模越大，同样内容的出圈和爆款率也会随之提升，提高平台的议价权，优化内容成本。而从付费上看，MPU 和 ARPPU 存在一定负相关关系，增速上看，负相关关系会更加明显，也就是说会员费越高，使得 ARPPU 提升，但短期内会影响付费用户数的增长。订阅服务的毛利订阅服务的毛利=付费用户规模（付费用户规模（MPU）*单用户付费水平（单用户付费水平（ARPPU）-内容成本内容成本 图表图表18：爱奇艺订阅会员数与爱奇艺订阅会员数与 ARPPU 相关性相关性 图表图表19：爱奇艺订阅会员数爱奇艺订阅会员数增速增速与与 ARPPU 增速增速相关性相关性 资料来源：公司公告，中信建投 资料来源：公司公告，中信建投 由于长视频平台存在一定的规模效应，因此我们进行简单调整，把平台内容成本分摊到每个付费用户的身上，看剔除单用户内容成本后的实际客单价，用这个客单价结合总的会员付费用户数来衡量这个商业对上下游的溢价能力。订阅服务的毛利润=（1-单用户内容成本率）*ARPPU*MPU 单用户内容成本率=单用户内容成本/单用户付费水平（广告 订阅）-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5 19Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q3毛利率毛利率（收入不变）毛利率（营业成本不变）-10%-5%0%5 %05 21Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q4E毛利率毛利率（收入不变）毛利率（营业成本不变）0.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.016.0020406080100120140订阅会员数（百万）ARPPU(元/月）-10%-5%0%5 %-20%-10%0 0Pp 19Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q4E订阅会员数YOYARPPU YOY 9 海外行业深度报告 互联网电商互联网电商 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 对于一个单纯靠订阅收费的长视频平台，在发展成熟时期可以享受规模经济带来的红利，作为全球流媒体龙头，Netflix 流媒体内容投入成效日渐显现，进入享受规模红利的发展阶段。2017 年后，Netflix 的流媒体收入增速开始超过流媒体内容投入的增速，并持续保持收入增速高于支出增速的趋势，即 Netflix 跨越拐点形成内容的规模经济效应。因此我们可以使用 Netflix 作为可参照的理想指标与爱奇艺作为对比。图表图表20：Netflix 收入增速自收入增速自 2017 年后普遍高于投入增速年后普遍高于投入增速 图表图表21：Netflix 单用户投入成本单用户投入成本 vs 单用户收入增速单用户收入增速 资料来源：公司财报，中信建投 资料来源：公司财报，中信建投 由于商业模式的差异，我们将爱奇艺的广告收入也纳为单用户的付费收入中，横向对比 Netflix，我们发现爱奇艺的单用户内容成本率远高于 Netflix，接近 Netflix 的两倍。要使爱奇艺的高成本率快速降下来，要么是降低单位内容成本，要么是提高订阅付费水平。2021 年以来爱奇艺严控内容支出，在保证内容 ROI 的推进下，大幅优化整体内容成本，降本可能会达到阶段性瓶颈期。在短期内，在保证内容质量的情况下，内容成本能够大幅下滑的可能性不大。图表图表22：爱奇艺与奈飞的单用户内容成本率对比爱奇艺与奈飞的单用户内容成本率对比 平台平台 付费用户数（百万人）付费用户数（百万人）ARPPU/ARPPU/月月 单用户广告收入单用户广告收入/月月 单用户付费水单用户付费水平平 单用户内容成本单用户内容成本/月月 单用户内容成本率单用户内容成本率 奈飞（美元）223.1 16.37 0 16.37 5.46 33%爱奇艺（人民币）101 13.9 4.11 18.01 14.19 79%资料来源：各公司财报，中信建投（22Q3财报数据）由于国内演员片酬较高及中美影视产业链差异的影响，国内影视上游的内容制作成本相比终端需求的购买由于国内演员片酬较高及中美影视产业链差异的影响，国内影视上游的内容制作成本相比终端需求的购买力仍然太高。力仍然太高。美国的影视行业经历了上百年的发展历史，产业链工业化已相对成熟，采取流水线方式，将影视制作进行专业精细分工，导演、剧本、演员、设备租赁、后期制作等等均由不同公司参与，并且每个产业链环节还将进一步细化，也就是说，在整个影视制作产业链中，每一个环节都不具备绝对的话语权，因此平台方作为内容整合者和渠道商议价能力较强，同时在内容把控上效率也更高，可以批量生产优质影视内容。而国内的影视公司更倾向于追求完整产业链的战略布局，以提高竞争壁垒，大多公司会呈现艺人、演艺、制作、发行一条龙，优质内容是稀缺资源，因此平台方的话语权进一步削弱。尽管近年来各个平台开始通过自建团队、工作室等方式解决这一困境，推动中国影视工业化，但这一现状是行业性的历史遗留问题，并非短期能够降下来的。因此短期看，成本端下降难度较大，盈利更多要关注单用户付费水平提升。因此短期看，成本端下降难度较大，盈利更多要关注单用户付费水平提升。-40%-20%0 00%收入同比增速投入同比增速-40.0%-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%0.0.0 .00.0%ARPU增速单用户内容现金成本增速 10 海外行业深度报告 互联网电商互联网电商 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 2.2 收入端：提价趋势确立，驱动业绩增长收入端：提价趋势确立，驱动业绩增长 2.2.1 提价历史复盘：多平台先后提价，价格趋于统一 长视频行业涨价模式确立，各平台进入“长视频行业涨价模式确立，各平台进入“25 元”区间。元”区间。2021 年国家加强对长视频平台监管，8 月上海消保委针对腾讯视频热播剧扫黑风暴的超前点映售价策略，进行点名批评，认为涉嫌“捆绑销售”，漠视消费者权益。随后，腾讯、优酷、爱奇艺、芒果 tv 等长视频平台相继取消超前点映策略。超前点映自 2019 年出现起就被各大长视频平台采用。2019-2020 年间将夜 2、爱情公寓 5、大主宰、鬓边不是海棠红等二十多部头部剧集均采用超前点映策略，曾为各视频平台创造可观收益，如 2019 年腾讯视频陈情令超前点播最终收益 1.5 亿元。超前点映的取消加快了长视频平台会员提价的步伐。2020 年以来，长视频行业已然进入提价周年以来，长视频行业已然进入提价周期，各长视频龙头在期，各长视频龙头在 2021 年年及及 2022 年年相继再次提价相继再次提价，基本形成每年提价一次规律，头部平台价格趋于统一，基本形成每年提价一次规律，头部平台价格趋于统一。爱奇艺是首家上调会员价格的平台，2020 年 11 月将连续包月/包季/包年的价格提升 20%-30%，2021年 12 月进行第二次提价，上调幅度在 10%-20%。2022 年 11 月，爱奇艺再次提价，连续包月黄金 VIP升至 25 元，相比 2020 年之前的 15 元，已上涨 67%，整体涨幅在 4%-14%之间。腾讯视频跟进爱奇艺在 2021 年 4 月进行第一次提价，会员包月/包季/包年价格涨幅分别为33%/29%/22%；2022 年 4 月进行第二次提价，会员包月/包季/包年价格涨幅分别为 25%/17%/8%。芒果 tv 于 2022 年 1 月提价，增幅相对较低，会员包月/包季/包年价格涨幅分别为 5%/9%/5%。2022 年8 月，芒果 TV 再次调整会员、全屏会员价格。月卡连包和季卡连包升至 22 元和 63 元，此次会员提价整体涨幅在 9%-20%之间。优酷首次提价相对较晚，但涨幅较高，涨价后对标其他平台水平。2022 年 6 月，时隔 5 年优酷调整会员价格。连续包月涨至 25 元，涨幅 31%；连续包季涨至 68 元，涨幅 28%。图表图表23：爱优腾芒提价历史爱优腾芒提价历史 平台平台 调整时间调整时间 调整幅度调整幅度 调整价格调整价格 包月 包季 包年 单买一月 爱奇艺 调整前-15 45 178 19.8 2020.11.13 17%-29 58 218 25 2021.12.16 8%-20 63 218 30 2022.11.16 4%-14% 68 238 30 腾讯视频 调整前-15 45 178 20 2021.04.10 17%-50 58 218 30 2022.04.20 2%-25% 68 238 30 芒果 TV 调整前-18 53 208 25 2022.01.02 5%-10 58 218 25 2022.08.09 9%-20 63 218 30 优酷 调整前-19 53 198-2022.06.21 20%-50% 68 238 30 资料来源：各平台官方公众号、APP，中信建投 除了会员费用上涨，各个平台还通过其他的方式变相提升价格，例如超前点播、限制投屏、限制设备登录除了会员费用上涨，各个平台还通过其他的方式变相提升价格，例如超前点播、限制投屏、限制设备登录 11 海外行业深度报告 互联网电商互联网电商 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 数量等。数量等。至 21 年 8 月超前点播取消一年后，超前点播又换壳重生，2022 年 6 月，腾讯视频官宣爆款古偶梦华录大结局点映礼，类似前期超前点播的模式，用户付费即可直通大结局。此外，优酷、爱奇艺先后通过限制投屏来促使用户升级更高价格的 TV 版会员，自 2022 年下半年起，优酷会员使用投屏服务需开通大屏端酷喵会员，而爱奇艺则从 2023 年 1 月 11 日开始，黄金 VIP 用户无法像往常一样使用最高 4K 清晰度的投屏，而只能使用最低档位的 480P 清晰度，且禁止了用户通过 HDMI 线链接电视播放。此类措施均可以理解为平台方变相涨价的过程。为何长视频平台在 2019 年前无法提价，而 2020 年之后便进入稳定提价周期？综合上述分析，我们认为有三点：1）行业流量红利消失，用户及付费用户增长速度变缓，规模即将见顶；2）竞争趋缓，行业提价成为共识，而平台间提价互相参考；3）平台盈利诉求提升，但短期看，成本端下降难度较大，若想盈利只能提高单用户付费水平。2.2.2 提价是否对会员数量有影响？-用户对价格敏感度较低 通过对各个平台提价后会员数量变化的分析，我们发现会员价格提升对会员规模影响比较有限。通过对各个平台提价后会员数量变化的分析，我们发现会员价格提升对会员规模影响比较有限。2020 年 11月爱奇艺首先开启长视频的提价周期，上调会员价格，但在此后的 20Q4-21Q3 三个季度内订阅用户数始终保持稳定；21 年 12 月提价后，爱奇艺 22Q1 会员数为 1.01 亿人，YoY-4%/QoQ 5%，较 21Q4 净增 440 万；腾讯视频跟进爱奇艺，在 2021 年 4 月进行提价，提价后会员数量仍然保持稳中有增，2022 年 4 月提价后，会员数也仅产生了小幅的波动；而芒果 TV 在 2022 年两次提价后，仍然保持 22 年全年 17%的付费会员增速。因此我们认为优质内容始终是长视频平台生存的基石，在保持稳定内容输出的前提下进行提价，不会对会员数产生较大波动，用户粘性相对较高。图表图表24：爱奇艺付费会员数及净增量（百万人）爱奇艺付费会员数及净增量（百万人）图表图表25：腾讯视频腾讯视频付费会员数及净增量（百万人）付费会员数及净增量（百万人）资料来源：公司公告，中信建投 资料来源：公司公告，中信建投 12 海外行业深度报告 互联网电商互联网电商 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 图表图表26：芒果芒果 TV 付费会员数及净增量（百万人）付费会员数及净增量（百万人）资料来源：公司公告，中信建投 为什么在提价过程中会员数能保持相对稳定，我们认为有以下三点原因：其一，其一，由于国内长视频平台消费由于国内长视频平台消费横向横向低于其他泛娱乐平台，低于其他泛娱乐平台，纵向纵向低于海外平台奈飞，因而仍然具有提价逻低于海外平台奈飞，因而仍然具有提价逻辑，用户对提价相对不敏感。辑，用户对提价相对不敏感。横向来看，长视频 ARPPU 远低于其他泛娱乐内容消费行业，对比直播、游戏、在线音乐的头部公司 ARPPU，可以看出爱奇艺的会员订阅 ARPPU 仅高于在线音乐，远低于直播打赏、游戏等行业，仍有较大提升空间。纵向来看，国内视频平台 ARPPU 仅为奈飞的六分之一。对标海外流媒体平台奈飞80 以上的 ARPPU，爱奇艺在 2022Q3 的 ARPPU 仅为 13.9 元，我们认为主要原因在：其一，在内容体量及内容质量上爱奇艺均和奈飞有差距，爱奇艺提供的片库体量、年产能、以及自制内容占比均低于奈飞；内容上，奈飞有优秀的内容自制能力，内容品质整体较高。其二，用户的付费意愿不同，美国流媒体由付费电视演化而来，用户的内容付费意愿较强，而中国流媒体由免费模式发展而来，用户付费习惯有待养成。图表图表27：各泛娱乐行业各泛娱乐行业 ARPPU 对比（元）对比（元）图表图表28：爱奇艺与奈飞平均爱奇艺与奈飞平均 ARPPU 对比（元）对比（元）资料来源：公司公告，中信建投 资料来源：公司公告，中信建投（汇率按2021年6.6085计算）其二，平台其二，平台深度绑定付费用户，付费深度绑定付费用户，付费消费消费习惯逐渐养成习惯逐渐养成，会员使用粘性高于普通用户。，会员使用粘性高于普通用户。根据 Questmobile数据，从头部 APP 用户付费情况来看，其付费用户月人均使用时长是整体用户的 2-3 倍，会员粘性远高于非会员用户。从播放量看，整体播放量在供给收缩的环境下有所下滑，但从会员播放量来看，剧集内容有效播放全面上行。根据云合数据，由于整体供给收缩，2022 年长视频大盘流量略有下降，全网剧集正片有效播放 3059 亿 同比下滑 2%；其中电视剧有效播放 1934 亿，同比上涨 3%；网络剧 1125 亿，同比下滑 8%。由于“超前点播”回归，上新剧集出现“付费回转”、“仅会员观看”模式，会员内容有效播放持续上涨，2022 年全网剧集会员内容有效播放 1464 亿，同比上涨 25%；其中电视剧 747 亿，同比上涨 39%，网络剧 717 亿，同比上涨 13%。0510152001020304050607020182019202020212022付费订阅会员数（百万人）增量0501001502002503000204060801Q212Q213Q214Q21爱奇艺ARPPU奈飞平均ARPPU 13 海外行业深度报告 互联网电商互联网电商 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 图表图表29：2022 年年 9 月在线视频行业头部月在线视频行业头部 APP 付费用户付费用户 VS 整体用户整体用户 月人均使用时长月人均使用时长 资料来源：Quest mobile，中信建投 图表图表30：2021 及及 2022 年年全网剧集正片有效播放全网剧集正片有效播放（亿）（亿）图表图表31：2021 及及 2022 年全网剧集年全网剧集会员内容会员内容有效播放（亿）有效播放（亿）资料来源：云合数据，中信建投 资料来源：云合数据，中信建投 与大盘趋势相同，分平台看，四大平台会员内容有效播放均上涨。与大盘趋势相同，分平台看，四大平台会员内容有效播放均上涨。平台方面，2022 年爱奇艺全网剧集正片有效播放 1190 亿，同比上涨 4%；腾讯视频正片有效播放 972 亿，同比下滑 15%；优酷正片有效播放 664 亿，同比上涨 5%；芒果 TV 正片有效播放 61 亿，同比下滑 11。会员侧，四平台会员内容有效播均同比上涨。2022 年爱奇艺会员内容有效播放 614 亿，同比上涨 46%；腾讯视频会员内容有效播放 485 亿，同比上涨 1%；优酷会员内容有效播放 311 亿，同比上涨 36%；芒果 TV 会员内容有效播放 39 亿，同比上涨 21%。7.46.86.34.918.919.316.313.7157.504.707.608.60%0 00000 01015202530爱奇艺腾讯视频芒果TV优酷视频整体用户付费用户付费用户vs整体用户 14 海外行业深度报告 互联网电商互联网电商 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 图表图表32：分平台分平台全网剧集正片有效播放全网剧集正片有效播放（亿）（亿）图表图表33：分平台分平台全网剧集全网剧集会员内容会员内容有效播放（亿）有效播放（亿）资料来源：云合数据，中信建投 资料来源：云合数据，中信建投 其三，平台维持头部且优质内容的供给，持续打造差异化。其三，平台维持头部且优质内容的供给，持续打造差异化。尽管各个平台在 2022 年的主线是降本，但更重要的是“减量提质”，头部及爆款数量并未减少，一方面平台着力于打磨优质内容，另一方面各家也纷纷加强自制内容投入，进行差异化竞争，持续吸引用户订阅。2.2.3 提价结果：腾讯爱奇艺提价拉动会员收入提升，芒果暂以用户增长为重 由于平台为拉新及留存会推出一定的促销折扣，各平台力度不同，因而提价并不完全等于 ARPPU 提升。复盘平台提价后对复盘平台提价后对 ARPPU 的提升效果，我们发现腾讯及爱奇艺会员提价对的提升效果，我们发现腾讯及爱奇艺会员提价对 ARPPU 的拉动最为明显，而优酷的拉动最为明显，而优酷和芒果较弱。和芒果较弱。爱奇艺从 2020Q4 首次提价以来，基本维持同比正增长，且从 2021Q3 起连续三个季度保持环比提升，会员月度 ARPPU 从 2020Q4 的 12.6 提升 10.3%至 13.9 元。反映到会员收入上，ARPPU 的提升持续拉动会员收入提升，2021Q3 至 2022Q2 会员收入同比保持稳定增长。腾讯与爱奇艺类似，同属第一梯队，付费用户规模相对较高，促销和折扣策略应当趋同，结合腾讯视频 22 年 10 月扭亏为盈，因此我们推测腾讯视频的 ARRPU应当也有明显提升。图表图表34：爱奇艺爱奇艺 ARPPU 持续提升持续提升 图表图表35：爱奇艺会员收入及增速爱奇艺会员收入及增速 资料来源：公司公告，中信建投 资料来源：公司公告，中信建投 相较于第一梯队的爱奇艺、腾讯视频，芒果 TV 的月均 ARPPU 值不高。目前芒果 TV 暂以会员增长为主要目标，促销活动较多，因此 ARPPU 一直较低，且逐年下降，2022 年预计 ARPPU 值将进一步降至 5.5 元，提价对 ARPPU 的带动有限，但是会员数的增长仍然拉动包含会员收入在内的互联网视频业务稳定增长。而优酷现阶段的主要策略仍是通过绑定 88VIP，进一步扩展付费用户规模，因此我们推测提价对 ARPPU 驱动有限。0200400600800100012001400爱奇艺腾讯视频优酷芒果TV202120220100200300400500600700爱奇艺腾讯视频优酷芒果TV20212022-10%-5%0%5 %0.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.016.02019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q3ARPPU(元/月）ARPPU YOYARPPU QOQ-20%-10%0 0Pp00020003000400050002019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q3会员收入（百万元）YoY 15 海外行业深度报告 互联网电商互联网电商 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 图表图表36：芒果芒果 TV ARPPU 有所下滑有所下滑 图表图表37：芒果芒果 TV 互联网视频互联网视频收入及增速收入及增速 资料来源：公司公告，中信建投 资料来源：公司公告，中信建投 2.2.4 提价还有空间吗？-对标 Netflix 仍有提升空间 近两年内，国内各大视频平台形成共识，开启 2-3 轮提价周期，而目前各平台的包月价格基本达到 25 元水平，相较 2020 年底的 15 元已经提升 66%。但是，任何产品/服务的消费都不能逃脱用户在一定可支配收入下的支付意愿天花板，毕竟长视频仍然属于可选消费，对大多数用户来说，即使前期不明显，但对价格的敏感多多少少都是存在的。因此下面我们要探究的问题就是提价的天花板在哪里？相较于 Netflix 北美地区 16.3 美元的 ARPPU，国内的视频平台的确是有较大差距，但我们认为由于中美消费水平、发达程度、付费习惯均存在较大差异，因此不能简单对标 Netflix 的付费水平。考虑到上述差异，我们以【家庭长视频付费/家庭可支配收入】这一指标来对比中美，测算国内视频平台用户的消费潜力。（考虑到一般家庭成员会共享一个账号，因此我们以家庭为单位）以 Netflix 22 年美加地区的 ARPPU 16.4 美元做参考，每个家庭花在 Netflix 上的订阅费用占全年收入的 0.28%，而爱奇艺的订阅费用占比仅为 0.13%，不及 Netflix 的一半。若按照 Netflix 的消费占比来计算国内头部平台的单用户消费水平，理想状态下 ARPPU 还可以从 14.3 元/月（以头部爱奇艺为例）提升至 30 元/月。但由于国内视频平台含广告模式，与 Netflix 商业模式有所差异，因而我们将单用户的付费水平按照爱奇艺广告及订阅服务占比进行拆分（22Q3 爱奇艺广告收入占比为 17%，会员收入占比为 56%），测算得国内头部长视频平台 ARPPU 天花板有望达到 23 元/月。图表图表38：国内视频平台付费天花板测算（对标国内视频平台付费天花板测算（对标 Netflix）ARPPU/ARPPU/月月 人均可支配收入人均可支配收入 平均家庭成员数平均家庭成员数 家庭可支配收入家庭可支配收入 长视频付费占比长视频付费占比 Netflix（美元）15.7 26,980 2.51 67,720 0.28%爱奇艺（人民币）14.3 49,283 2.62 129,121 0.13%芒果 TV（人民币）5.5 49,283 2.62 129,121 0.05%国内平台付费天花板（广告 订阅）30.0 129,121 0.28%国内平台付费天花板（纯订阅）23.0（按照爱奇艺2022Q3广告及订阅收入占比进行拆分）资料来源：各公司财报，国家统计局，美联储，中信建投（ARPPU采用22年全年的月均ARPPU，考虑到Netflix其他地区相对不成熟，我们在此使用美加地区的ARPPU，考虑到中美城市化率差距，国内人均可支配收入使用城镇人均可支配收入数据）6.5 7.7 7.5 6.1 5.5 18%-2%-19%-10%-30%-20%-10%0 0%0.02.04.06.08.010.020182019202020212022EARPPU（元）YOY-20%0 00000200030004000500060007000互联网视频收入(百万元）YOY 16 海外行业深度报告 互联网电商互联网电商 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 2.3 成本端：多维度控本成本端：多维度控本，减量增质，减量增质 2.3.1 降本增效成为共同主题，注重长期发展持续性 在具有挑战的外部环境下，各平台更加关注长期发展的可持续性及盈利能力提升，降本增效成为 2022 年行业关键词。成本方面，长视频平台精准提高效率、优化冗余资源，在维持头部内容产出的同时减少低效内容投入。根据云合数据，2022 年国产剧集、综艺上新量均有减少，全网影剧综正片内容有效播放量持续下降，但同时会员内容有效播放量仍维持良好增长，行业提质减量趋势凸显。费用方面，各平台平衡增长及费用投入，费用管控成效逐步显现，爱奇艺的各项营运费用率均呈下降趋势；由于芒果广告收入占比较重，受 22 年宏观环境拖累，收入端较为疲弱，因此销售费用率优化较少，但从绝对值看，22 年全年芒果超媒的销售及管理费用均同比降低。图表图表39：爱奇艺内容成本持续下降爱奇艺内容成本持续下降 图表图表40：爱奇艺爱奇艺 22 年销售及行政、研发费用率同比下降年销售及行政、研发费用率同比下降 资料来源：公司公告，中信建投 资料来源：公司公告，中信建投 图表图表41：芒果超媒营业成本同比下降芒果超媒营业成本同比下降 图表图表42：芒果超媒销售及行政、研发费用率同比下降（百芒果超媒销售及行政、研发费用率同比下降（百万元）万元）资料来源：公司公告，中信建投 资料来源：公司公告，中信建投-30%-20%-10%0 0P%-1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,0002019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q3内容成本（百万元）YOY0%5 19Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q3销售、一般及行政费用率研发费用率-40%-20%0 00001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0002019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q3营业成本（百万元）YOY-40%-20%0 0004006008001,000销售费用管理费用销售费用YOY管理费用YOY 17 海外行业深度报告 互联网电商互联网电商 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 2.3.2 内容成本下降是否会影响内容质量？做好优质内容是长视频平台发展的核心驱动力，而内容成本投入的减少是否会影响内容供给和质量，从而影响平台可持续性发展，也是我们要核心探究的问题之一。我们将从以下四方面回答这个问题。1）调整内容策略，保留头部内容，以调整内容策略，保留头部内容，以 ROI 为导向，收缩长尾内容投入为导向，收缩长尾内容投入，减量增质，减量增质。头部内容是 ROI 最高的内容，对于会员订阅与广告招商具有最明显拉动作用，也是提升用户和会员忠诚度的核心。虽然整个长视频行业处于“降本”的阶段，但平台对优质内容的投入并未减少，从云合数据上看，相比往年同期，22 年平台内容的整体数量是有所减少的，但从口碑、热度和收益来看，精品并未缺席、甚至更多。以首个提出降本且 22 年持续有爆款出圈的爱奇艺为例，所谓“降本”，降的是项目数量和在 60 分左右、可上可不上的内容，再对剩下的投入进行结构性调整。比如，五部剧里有两部不合适，那么就要降低成本，原来一个亿的降到 3000 万，剩下三个剧原来是一个亿，要加码到两个亿，因为它更符合头部的剧集效应，而加的码越高，吸金能力越强。22 年下半年起，爱奇艺提出“冷静增长”新策略，冷静意味着理性投入，要控制好成本，增长意味着还是要恰当的投入，前者在一定程度上是对降本增效策略的延续，让理性回归成为常态，后者则是为了进一步探索上升空间。而从结果上看，爱奇艺在这个充满压力与挑战的关键时期，始终坚持原创、更聚焦头部内容、“把钱花在刀刃上”。高效精准的内容策略最终使爱奇艺迎来好作品的集中爆发期，在长视频行业中逆势上扬，2022 年至今爱奇艺收获六部热度破万剧集，品类多样风格多元，且题材呈现出了明显的差异化，实现口碑利润双收。2）内容制作或采购方式有所改变，定制）内容制作或采购方式有所改变，定制剧和剧和和分账和分账剧剧占比提升，版权采购模式占比下滑。占比提升，版权采购模式占比下滑。版权剧成本相对最高，尤其早期长视频平台大战期间，平台为获得独播版权相互竞价，大幅拉高了行业剧集采购价格，从上游影视公司看来，版权剧的毛利大多在 40%-50%；定制剧普遍毛利较低，行业水平在 10%-20%之间，且定制方掌握制作的主导权，易于把握内容质量；而分账剧一般以小成本内容为主，由制作平台自负盈亏，制作公司的毛利水平会随剧集播放量、招商情况等出现较大幅度的波动，但平台方风险较低。图表图表43：耐看娱乐不同类型剧集毛利率水平耐看娱乐不同类型剧集毛利率水平 资料来源：耐看娱乐公司公告，中信建投 版权剧向分账剧和定制剧迁移是趋势。版权剧向分账剧和定制剧迁移是趋势。根据弗若斯特沙利文的数据，分账剧数量从 2016 年的 20 部增长至2021 年的 70 部，占到 2021 年网剧总数的 35.5%，2016-2021 年的复合年增长率达到 28.5%，高于定制剧/自制剧的 16.0%，而版权剧的复合增速则为-20.9%，下滑明显，从 2016 年的 71 部缩减至 2021 年的 22 部。0 0P 1920202021版权剧分账剧定制剧 18 海外行业深度报告 互联网电商互联网电商 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 图表图表44：2016-2026E 按类型划分的网剧数量（部）按类型划分的网剧数量（部）图表图表45：2016-2026E 按类型划分的网剧占比（按类型划分的网剧占比（%）资料来源：佛若斯特沙利文，中信建投 资料来源：佛若斯特沙利文，中信建投 3）限薪令推动版权成本压降。限薪令推动版权成本压降。2018 年 8 月，优酷、爱奇艺、腾讯视频三大视频网站与六大制片公司联合发表声明，共同抵制艺人“天价片酬”现象，尝试推行单个演员单集片酬（含税）不超过 100 万元，总片酬（含税）最高不超过 5000 万元的具体定价规则。同年，广电总局亦发布“限薪令”，要求综艺节目全部嘉宾总片酬不得超过节目总成本的 40%，主要嘉宾片酬不得超过嘉宾总片酬的 70%，电视剧全部演员片酬不超过制作总成本的 40%，主要演员片酬不超过总片酬的 70%；2020 年“限薪令”再次升级，要求单集片酬不得超过 1000 万元，最高片酬不得超过 5000 万元，综艺艺人薪酬不得超过 80 万元；2022 年，广电总局颁发新版“限薪令”，坚决反对“天价片酬”，严格执行每部电视剧全部演员片酬不超过制作总成本的 40%的规定。在监管部门和企业的协力下，剧集采购成本明显下降。“限薪令”发布前头部大 IP 大制作剧集单集网络售价达到 1000 万元以上，限薪要求落地后单集价格已回落至 800 万元以下。图表图表46：“限薪令”出台前后视频平台剧集价格对比“限薪令”出台前后视频平台剧集价格对比 播出年份播出年份 剧集名称剧集名称 集数集数 主演主演 单集价格（万元）单集价格（万元）播出平台播出平台 2014 武媚娘传奇 82 范冰冰、张丰毅、李治廷 100 騰讯视频 2015 芈月传 81 孙俪、刘涛、方中信，黄轩 200 乐视视频、腾讯视烦 2015 花千骨 50 霍建华、赵丽颖、蒋欣 130 爱奇艺、腾讯视频、搜狐视频等 2016 幻城 62 冯绍峰、宋茜、马天宇、张萌 400 腾讯视频、芒果 TV、优酷网、爱奇艺等 2016 诛仙青云志 55 李易峰、赵丽颖、杨紫，成毅 700 芒果 TV、腾讯视频、优酷网、土豆网 2017 择天记 56 鹿晗、古力娜扎、吴倩、曾舜晞 750 爱奇艺、芒果 TV、腾讯视频、优酷网 2017 三生三世十里桃花 58 杨幂、赵又廷、张彬彬 1000 优酷 2017 琅琊榜 2 50 黄晓明、刘昊然、佟丽娅、800 爱奇艺 2017 孤芳不自赏 62 钟汉良、杨颖、甘婷婷、孙艺洲 1000 乐视视频 2017 我的前半生 42 马伊琍、靳东、袁泉、雷佳音 900 联播 2018 如懿传 87 周迅、霍建华、张钓甯、童瑶 1450 騰讯视频 2018 凉生我们可不可以不忧伤 70 钟汉良、马天宇、孙怡、于朦胧 1000 PPTV、爱奇艺、腾讯视频、芒果 TV、优酷 2021 小舍得 42 宋佳、佟大为、蒋欣 1000 爱奇艺 2021 小敏家 45 周迅、黄磊、唐艺昕 880 2022 无间 40 靳东、王志文、王丽坤、张志坚 500 腾讯视频 资料来源：新剧观察，欢瑞世纪，唐德影视，慈文传媒，中信建投 5010514520709071222505010015020025030020162021E2026E定制剧/自制剧分账剧版权剧35SV65P%0 0 162021E2026E定制剧/自制剧分账剧版权剧 19 海外行业深度报告 互联网电商互联网电商 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 4）平台加速提高自制能力，布局工作室体系。平台加速提高自制能力，布局工作室体系。在长视频后时代，行业进入存量时期，各平台不仅要凭借优质的内容储备，更需以差异化的竞争定位细分市场，因此自制能力成为核心竞争力。而近两年来越来越多的头部自制剧脱颖而出，前两年你是我的荣耀、扫黑风暴、隐秘的角落等，而近期苍兰诀、狂飙、风吹半夏等爆款背后的推手正是各个平台在加速发力的工作室。爱奇艺：爱奇艺：以内容赛道设置工作室模式，自制工作室体系成熟。以内容赛道设置工作室模式，自制工作室体系成熟。爱奇艺深耕原创视频领域多年，率先发力搭建原创内容工作室，以内容赛道进行分类，每个工作室都有一定的特长，早期对头部工作室依赖度较大，近年来后建立的工作室逐步释放产能，既形成多元内容生产线，实覆盖多元化的题材内容，并不断丰富剧综内容储备，掌握竞争优势。除原创工作室外，爱奇艺持续推出迷雾剧场、恋恋剧场、小逗剧场特色剧集厂牌，持续输出优质内容。图表图表47：爱奇艺主要剧集工作室及代表作爱奇艺主要剧集工作室及代表作 剧集工作室剧集工作室 负责人负责人 作品类型作品类型 主要作品主要作品 风起 戴莹/徐蜜 现实、古装等 风起洛阳 怪你过分美丽 奇运 戴莹/卞江 现实、古装等 沉默的真相 隐秘的角落 八角亭迷雪（待播）奇爱 戴莹/张妍 现实、古装等 理想之城 美边不是海棠红 棋魂 最好的我们 自来水 戴莹/杜翔宇 现实、古装等 淘金（待播）奇喜 戴莹/贾智棋 现实、古装等 民国奇探 夺梦（待播）芝麻荚 李莅樱 古装、悬疑、冒险等 河神、黄金瞳 终极笔记 奇煋 熊晓玲 现代、生活 世界微尘里 原来我很爱你 爱斯尼 钮继新 都市情感 生活家 天才基本法 爱撒糖 邵文依 现实、情感 满月之下请相爱 爱上乐 谭君平 现实、情感 生活万岁 假日暖洋洋 奇佳 吴峥 古装、喜剧 明月曾照江东寒 艺匠 冯微微 古装等 两世欢 灿然 齐康 青春燃向 无证之罪 棒！少年 再见那一天（待播）奇正 杨蓓 爱情、女性向 一生一世 周生如故 变成你的那一天 海岸 张海帆 古装等 剑隐长安（待播）新羿 何叶 现代、校园等 理科生坠人情网（待播）奥羽 戴婧婷 古装等 明月入卿怀(待播）资料来源：桃叨叨，中信建投 综艺方面，与剧集类似，仍然按照题材和赛道进行分工，包括音乐、潮流文化、喜剧等多个品类，近年来推出萌探探探案、一年一度喜剧大赛等多个爆款综艺 IP。20 海外行业深度报告 互联网电商互联网电商 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 图表图表48：爱奇艺主要爱奇艺主要综艺综艺工作室及代表作工作室及代表作 自制综艺人员自制综艺人员/团队团队 主要制片人主要制片人 作品类型作品类型 代表作品代表作品 YOH 工作室 车澈 潮流文化 中国有嘻哈 热血街舞团 潮流合伙人 小怪兽工作室 吴寒 偶像音乐 偶像练习生 奇马工作室 薄爽 情感纪实 做家务的男人 喜欢你我也是 美氪工作室 王宁 潮流文化 中国新说唱 国风美少年 尖叫之夜 好奇工作室 潮流文化 中国新说唱 VIOg 营业中 宅家猜猜猜 奇观工作室 刘家超 潮流文化 宅家运动会 跨次元新星 沐心工作室 何冀兵 潮流文化 瑜你台上见 灵泛工作室（新建）安可工作室 谭娜 文化类 奇葩说系列姐姐好饿系列乐队的夏天 演员的品格 三乐工作室 美食类 中国餐馆 此食此客 无饭不起早 奇柯工作室 陈奕汛 潮流文化 夏日冲浪店 姐妹们的茶话会 莫比斯工作室 潮流文化 新说唱前线 奇葩说大乱斗 LIT 工作室 石慧 探案真人秀 萌探探探案 资料来源：桃叨叨，中信建投 腾讯腾讯视频视频：腾讯影业：腾讯影业 在线内容制作部，以剧集制作成本分工。在线内容制作部，以剧集制作成本分工。腾讯内部有制作能力的包括“腾讯影业”和“在线视频 Scripted 内容制作部”，腾讯影业主要出品院线电影与头部剧集，旗下涉及剧集业务的目前有生产大剧的橡树影视创作中心，偏好现实题材的大禹自制剧中心，腾讯动漫 IP 影视化的漫宇工作室，以及上海女子图鉴、将军在上制片人金屹菲负责的飞兔影视创作中心，而“腾讯影业”的内容不局限于服务腾讯视频，也向外部平台输出。腾讯视频亦有很多内部剧集工作室（归属于在线视频内容制作部），并且还在不断扩张，主要由三大制片人分管不同项目。腾讯内部工作室数量相对较少，主要以剧集制作成本分工。另外从去年开始，腾讯影业与阅文集团以及阅文旗下的新丽传媒形成“三驾马车”集体亮相，各取其长尝试高效 IP 开发协作的模式，一口气推出庆余年 赘婿 雪中悍刀行等重磅作品。图表图表49：腾讯视频腾讯视频主要综艺工作室及代表主要综艺工作室及代表作作【腾讯影业腾讯影业】剧集工作室剧集工作室 工作室工作室 负责人负责人 作品类型作品类型 主要作品主要作品 橡树影视创作中心 马好 大剧 人世间 心居 大禹自制剧中心 张猛 现实主义 黑色灯塔 亲爱的，你在哪里 漫宇工作室 邬正宇 动漫 IP 影视化 一人之下 狐妖小红娘 飞兔影视创作中心 金屹菲 腾讯在线视频腾讯在线视频 ScriptedScripted 内容制作部内容制作部 工作室工作室 负责人负责人 工作室特点工作室特点 主要作品主要作品 方芳 头部 P，“言情 ”你是我的荣耀 千古火尘 摩天大楼 李尔云 创新类型，原创 云南虫谷 扫黑风暴 张娜（天然工作室）都市现实、历史、科幻等 我，喜欢你 玲珑 小风暴之时间的玫瑰 资料来源：桃叨叨，中信建投 腾讯视频关于综艺工作室定位更加清晰腾讯视频关于综艺工作室定位更加清晰，每个工作室都试图通过贴上独特的标签，来建立厂牌概念，在脱口秀、恋综等赛道均有不错的表现，推出脱口秀大会 心动的信号系列综艺。制作上，采取的更像是项目 21 海外行业深度报告 互联网电商互联网电商 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 经理制，开放合作。作为平台方的腾讯视频旗下工作室主要负责把关和运营，具体制作环节则交由外部合作的节目制作团队。图表图表50：腾讯视频综艺工作室腾讯视频综艺工作室 工作室工作室 负责人负责人 主要作品主要作品 Nova 工作室 多晓萌 创造营系列、炙热的我们、超新星运动会 羊不辣德工作室 王鑫璇 明日之子系列、拜托了冰箱系列、令人心动的 offer系列 七盎司工作室 白洪羽 吐槽大会系列、脱口秀大会系列 天际工作室 池源 五十公里桃花坞、平行时空遇见你、我和我的经纪人 天马工作室 李笑 德云斗笑社系列、哈哈哈哈哈很高兴遇见你 坐标系工作室 徐扬 演员请就位系列、心动的信号系列、幸福三重奏系列 新线工作室 何远雄 MCN 孵化、直播态节目、新形态内容 资料来源：桃叨叨，中信建投 优酷：阿里影业优酷：阿里影业 优酷剧集制作中心，优酷剧集制作中心，坚持大剧独播，坚持大剧独播，出品水平较稳定。出品水平较稳定。阿里文娱旗下优酷与阿里影业均有自制业务，优酷剧集中心主要负责内容剧集出品与版权采买，与国内的头部影视公司等一起合作项目。阿里影业剧集板块已知有两大自制剧工作室，一个是敦淇工作室，主要作品有我们都要好好的、重生等，比较擅长刑侦剧、行业剧等开发，但也在不断拓展题材，例如偏向都市爱情剧的点燃我温暖你、炽道等。另一个是由张文丽负责的拾穗工作室，更加聚焦于年轻女性用户的垂直细分领域，主要作品有 机智的上半场、半城花雨伴君离等。虽然优酷出品的剧集数量不及爱奇艺、芒果等，但一直保持着较好的口碑，时而创造出具有话题性的火爆作品。觉醒年代 司藤等剧集曾因高质量备受好评，去年末陈飞宇主演的点燃我温暖你更是在网络掀起了极高的讨论度。图表图表51：优酷优酷主要综艺工作室及代表作主要综艺工作室及代表作 负责人负责人 作品类型作品类型 主要作品主要作品【优酷视频】剧集业务板块【优酷视频】剧集业务板块 优酷剧集中心 谢颖 内容剧集 觉醒年代 司藤 冰雨火（待播）【阿里影业】剧集工作室【阿里影业】剧集工作室 敦淇工作室 敦淇 刑侦剧、行业剧 我们都要好好的 重生 我凭本事单身 点燃我温暖你 拾穗工作室 张文丽 年轻女性向 机智的上半场 半城花雨伴君离（待播）资料来源：桃叨叨，中信建投 各平台自制内容占比不断提高各平台自制内容占比不断提高，差异化内容布局逐步显现。，差异化内容布局逐步显现。爱奇艺自制内容账面净值逐年提升，2022Q3爱奇艺自制内容账面净值 127 亿元，占内容资产比重达到 61%，印证公司内容生产能力不断提升。从剧集排播上看，2022 年多平台拼播剧集部数占比进一步下降。2022 年上新剧集中，独播剧集部数占比由 66.4%上涨至 68.1%同比 1.7pcts；双平台拼播剧集部数占比为 18.4%，同比 4.1%pcts；多平台拼播剧集部数同比下降 5.8pcts。分平台看，2022 年各平台上新剧集独播占比均超 40%。，其中爱腾优上新剧集独播部数占比分别为 46%/40%/58%，同比上涨 3-13pcts；芒果 TV 独播占比同比下降 12 pcts 至 47%。平台自制能力正在日益成为“护城河”，观众阈值持续提高 22 海外行业深度报告 互联网电商互联网电商 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 图表图表52：爱奇艺自制内容及版权情况（十亿元）爱奇艺自制内容及版权情况（十亿元）资料来源：公司公告，中信建投 图表图表53：上新剧排播分布上新剧排播分布 图表图表54：各平台上新剧独播部数占比各平台上新剧独播部数占比 资料来源：云合数据，中信建投 资料来源：云合数据，中信建投 一方面，演员“限薪令”不断升级，推动行业内容成本持续优化，同时剧集采买模式也从版权剧向分账和定制剧迁移，这两者本就内生性优化了行业的内容成本，因此这部分内容投入减少并不会影响优质内容供给。另一方面，平台以更合理的内容策略调整驱动内容 ROI 提升，平台将聚焦头部内容，减少高投入、低效的腰尾部内容投放，持续带动内容 ROI 提升，减量而提质，驱动公司经营业绩持续改善，同时自制能力的持续提升将有利于各个平台形成差异化布局，并实现稳定、高质量的内容供给。因此，综上我们认为短期内容成本的下降并不会影响到内容质量和长期可持续发展。0 0Pp46810121418Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4 19Q1 19Q2 19Q3 19Q4 20Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3自制外购自制版权占比0 00 212022独播双平台拼播多平台拼播0 0P%爱奇艺腾讯视频优酷芒果TV20212022 23 海外行业深度报告 互联网电商互联网电商 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 附录：附录：2023 年各视频平台片单年各视频平台片单 图表图表55：2023 年爱奇艺片单年爱奇艺片单 电视剧电视剧 主演主演 类型类型 是否自制是否自制 是否联播是否联播 我要逆风去 龚俊、钟楚曦 都市 是 否 归路 井柏然、谭松韵 都市 是 否 漫影寻踪 杨颖、王安宇 都市 是 否 龙城 马伊琍、白宇 都市 是 否 我们的日子 李小冉、李乃文 都市 是 否 回响 宋佳、王阳 都市 是 否 今日宜加油 郑恺、陈钰琪、王鹤棣 都市 否 否 外婆的新世界 闫妮、郑恩熙 都市 是 否 开画！少女漫 沈月、王敬轩 喜剧 是 否 显微镜下的大明之丝绢案 张若昀、王阳 古装悬疑 是 否 天启异闻录 黄轩 古装悬疑 是 否 莲花楼 成毅、曾舜晞 古装悬疑 是 否 虎鹤妖师录 蒋龙、张凌赫 古装悬疑 是 否 山河之影 张云龙 古装 是 否 宁安如梦 白鹿、张凌赫 古装偶像 是 否 狐妖小红娘 杨幂、龚俊 古装偶像 是 否 云襄传 陈晓、毛晓彤 古装偶像 是 否 长风渡 白敬亭、宋轶 古装偶像 是 否 无忧渡 任嘉伦、宋祖儿 古装偶像 是 否 一念关山 刘诗诗 古装偶像 否 否 七时吉祥 杨超越、丁禹兮 古装偶像 是 否 我是刑警 于和伟 年代剧 是 否 不完美受害人 周迅、刘奕君、林允 悬疑探案 是 否 仿生人间 宋威龙、文淇 悬疑科幻 是 否 人生路遥 陈晓、李沁、张嘉倪 年代剧 是 否 球状闪电 待定 悬疑科幻 是 否 综艺综艺 拟邀请嘉宾拟邀请嘉宾 节目介绍节目介绍 哈哈哈哈哈 3 邓超、陈赫、鹿晗等 公路进行式户外真人秀 萌探探探案 3 华晨宇、杨迪、沙溢等 推凶脱险团队合作真人秀 一起露营吧 2 陈伟霆、汪苏泷、王安宇等 户外露营 中国说唱巅峰对决 2023 王嘉尔、王鹤棣、严浩翔等 个性化说唱比赛 乐队的夏天 3 橘子海、棱镜、帆布小镇等 舞台表演，乐队竞逐 种地吧少年 王鹤棣、黄磊等 户外种地真人秀 你好生活 3 撒贝宁、尼格买提 新青年生活分享 登场了！北京中轴线 探索北京中轴线 我的小尾巴 3 安安、心儿等 亲子综艺 24 海外行业深度报告 互联网电商互联网电商 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 体育体育 品类品类 2023 联合杯 篮球 2023 澳网 网球 英超新年大战 足球 电影电影 主演主演 类型类型 老家伙 张国立、王刚等 剧情喜剧 中国乒乓 邓超、孙俪等 剧情运动 普通男女 黄璐、郭涛等 剧情家庭 绝地追击 欧豪、谷嘉诚等 动作灾难 彷徨之刃 崔相旭、李秀彬等 剧情悬疑 忠犬八公 冯小刚、陈冲等 剧情 皮囊 朱茵、文芳等 惊悚奇幻 临时劫案 任贤齐、林家栋等 动作犯罪 资料来源：爱奇艺app、猫眼专业版、百度百科，中信建投 图表图表56：2023 年腾讯视频片单年腾讯视频片单 电视剧电视剧 主演主演 类型类型 是否自制是否自制 是否联播是否联播 梦中的那片海 肖战、李沁等 都市爱情 否 否 公诉精英 迪丽热巴、佟大为等 剧情悬疑 是 否 繁花 胡歌、马伊琍等 剧情爱情 是 否 仙剑 何与、杨雨潼等 古装 是 否 与凤行 赵丽颖、林更新等 剧情奇幻 是 否 雪鹰领主 许凯、古力娜扎等 爱情奇幻 是 否 暮色心约 任嘉伦、杨颖等 剧情爱情 否 否 潜伏者 黄晓明、蒋欣等 剧情悬疑 是 否 黑土无言 王小泉、杨国良等 剧情犯罪 是 否 好事成双 张小斐、黄晓明等 都市剧情 否 否 欢颜 董子健、张译等 剧情 是 否 天行健 秦俊杰、刘宇宁等 剧情爱情 是 否 爱情而已 吴磊、周雨彤 等 都市爱情 是 否 西出玉门 倪妮、白宇等 爱情悬疑 是 否 如月 高伟光、欧阳娜娜等 剧情爱情 是 否 梅花红桃 关晓彤、韩东君等 剧情悬疑 是 否 父辈的旗帜 张晚意、郭涛等 剧情 是 否 三分野 张彬彬、吴倩等 剧情爱情 否 否 照亮你 陈伟霆、章若楠等 都市剧情 是 否 鹊刀门传奇 赵本山、宋小宝等 剧情喜剧 是 否 25 海外行业深度报告 互联网电商互联网电商 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 综艺综艺 拟邀请嘉宾等拟邀请嘉宾等 节目介绍节目介绍 哈哈哈哈哈第三季 邓超、陈赫、鹿晗等 公路进行式户外真人秀 1 1live 米卡、刘宪华、邓紫棋等 音乐节目 超时空计划 孙红雷、杨洋、杨紫等 穿越旧时代，完成“时代任务”舞台 2023 蔡维泽、林恺伦、马良等 音乐竞演综艺，角逐年度新人王 团结的力量 宋茜、杨颖、孟子义等 大型团建计划真人秀 童话 马丽、李荣浩、谭松韵等 户外游戏治愈真人秀 看我们的喜剧 李诞等 喜剧竞演综艺 按任意键开始游戏 迪丽热巴、黄晓明等 无限流闯关游戏综艺 半熟恋人第二季 景甜、唐艺昕、王子文等 轻熟龄恋爱观察真人秀 再一次心动 宁静、钟欣潼、江疏影等 旅途恋爱综艺 令人心动的 offer 第四季 谢霆锋、张杰、关晓彤等 职场观察类真人秀 五十公里桃花坞第三季 宋丹丹、王鹤棣、孟子义等 社交观察真人秀 幸福三重奏第四季 陈晓&陈妍希夫妇、戚薇&李承铉夫妇等 亲密关系实景观察节目 体育体育 品类品类 NBA 篮球 中超 足球 欧冠 足球 电影电影 主演等主演等 类型类型 流浪地球 2 吴京、刘德华等 科幻冒险 绑架游戏 彭昱畅、胡冰卿等 剧情悬疑 爱很美味 李纯、张含韵、王菊等 喜剧爱情 满江红 沈腾、易烊千玺、雷佳音等 悬疑喜剧 维和防暴队 黄景瑜、王一博、等 动作剧情 龙马精神 成龙、刘浩存、郭麒麟等 喜剧动作 保你平安 大鹏、李雪琴等 剧情喜剧 学爸 黄渤、闫妮等 剧情喜剧 交换人生 雷佳音、张小斐等 喜剧家庭 热烈 黄渤、王一博等 剧情 透明侠侣 王皓、史策等 喜剧奇幻 绝望主夫 常远、辣目洋子等 喜剧 无名 梁朝伟、王一博、周迅等 剧情历史 资料来源：腾讯视频App，猫眼专业版，百度百科，中信建投 26 海外行业深度报告 互联网电商互联网电商 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 图表图表57：2023 年优酷片单年优酷片单 电视剧电视剧 主演主演 类型类型 是否自制是否自制 是否联播是否联播 安乐传 迪丽热巴、龚俊等 古装、传奇 是 否 春日暖阳 吴刚、黄子韬等 都市 否-做自己的光 刘涛、秦海璐等 成长、励志 是-打开生活的正确方式 木容、马艺宁等 当代、都市 否 否 风雨浓胭脂乱 张楠、王玉雯等 古装、爱情 否 否 血战松毛岭 张宁江、林鹏等 革命、战争 是 否 不期而至 蔡文静、彭冠英等 都市 否 否 新上错花轿嫁对郎 田曦薇、敖瑞鹏等 喜剧、古装 是-燕山派与百花门 方逸伦、刘令姿等 古装、轻喜 是 否 偷偷藏不住 赵露思、陈哲远等 都市 否 否 长月烬明 罗云熙、白鹿等 爱情、奇幻 是 否 灿烂灿烂 郭京飞、任敏等 青春、励志 是-为有暗香来 周也、王星越等 古代、爱情 否 否 扫黑之拂晓行动 黄志忠、姜武等 悬疑、涉案 否 否 半城花雨伴君离 陈瑶、梁靖康等 古装 否 否 玩家 张云龙、邓家佳等 都市、电竞 是 否 莫染 付辛博、夏梦等 古装 是-鸣龙少年 张若昀、黄尧等 校园、青春 是 否 综艺综艺 拟邀请嘉宾等拟邀请嘉宾等 节目介绍节目介绍 这！就是街舞 6 赞多、李斯丹妮、王霏霏等 街舞表演竞技 无线超越班 韩雪、许巍洲等 演员专业艺训励志真人秀 每周最好笑的一天 于谦、大张伟等 搞笑综艺 失忆神探 王俊凯、陈伟霆、杨紫等 烧脑悬疑推理综艺 大集大利 冯巩、金靖、白凯南等 潮玩大集新模式 河南卫视 河南春晚 王一博、李晨、杨紫等 春节联欢晚会 怦然心动二十岁 3-恋爱牵线真人秀 是我喜欢的工作呀宠物医生-双视角职场治愈观察类真人秀 聚吗？聚呀-老友随心发挥的慢团综艺 是热爱羽毛球的我们呀-潮流社交运动真人秀 体育体育 品类品类 2023 德班世乒赛 乒乓球 马来西亚羽毛球公开赛 羽毛球 电影电影 主演等主演等 类型类型 狙击手：逆战 于荣光、邢恩等 动作剧情 天龙八部之乔峰传 甄子丹、陈钰琪等 剧情动作 天虎突击队 石兆琪、王雨甜等 剧情动作 钢铁意志 刘烨、韩雪等 剧情历史 资料来源：优酷app、猫眼专业版、百度百科，中信建投 27 海外行业深度报告 互联网电商互联网电商 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 图表图表58：2023 年芒果年芒果 TV 片单片单 电视剧电视剧 主演主演 类型类型 是否自制是否自制 是否联播是否联播 去有风的地方 刘亦菲、李现 剧情、都市 否 湖南卫视联播 以爱为营 白鹿、王鹤棣 都市 否 湖南卫视联播 大宋少年志 2 张新成、周雨彤 青春、悬疑 是 湖南卫视联播 我的人间烟火 杨洋、王楚然 都市 否 湖南卫视联播 群星闪耀时 李现、任敏 剧情悬疑 是 湖南卫视联播 那些回不去的年少时光 赵今麦 剧情爱情 否-综艺综艺 拟邀请嘉宾等拟邀请嘉宾等 节目介绍节目介绍 全民歌手 2023 胡海泉、韩磊、韩红 选秀音乐综艺 乘风破浪 4 李玟、蔡健雅 舞台竞演 披荆斩棘 3 苏有朋、王祖蓝、邓超 不一样的音乐表演风格 向往的生活 7 何炅、黄磊、彭昱畅 生活服务纪实节目 欢迎来到蘑菇屋 2 齐思钧、石凯、邵明明 治愈系慢综艺 中餐厅 7-青春合伙人经营体验 全员加速中 20213 杜淳、田亮、Ella 创意实境游戏真人秀 大侦探 8 何炅、张若昀、大张伟 普法教育推理综艺 这一波好 6 何炅、王鹤棣、杨紫 沉浸式推理互动类真人秀 初入职场的我们 3-职场观察类综艺 资料来源：芒果TVapp、百度百科、猫眼专业版、千篇网、网易，中信建投 28 海外行业深度报告 互联网电商互联网电商 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 风险分析 疫情反复延缓内容制作进度。疫情反复延缓内容制作进度。新冠疫情呈现常态化，部分地区疫情反复线下活动受限，户外活动仍然无法完全顺利开展，假若疫情扩散导致户外活动停摆，影视内容拍摄进度及其他业务运营形成冲击，公司内容供给及经营业绩将受到较大影响。会员增长不及预期：会员增长不及预期：国内用户增长见顶，付费用户数增长缓慢，出海由于文化原因较为困难。若用户增长较疲弱将影响整体营收。政策风险：政策风险：公司所在行业属于文化传媒行业，具有意识形态特殊属性，政策监管影响内容生产与排播。市场竞争加剧风险：市场竞争加剧风险：各大长视频平台仍在持续投入成本构建内容壁垒；中短视频平台仍在进行积极用户获取，并向长视频内容探索，长视频或面临激烈的市场竞争，用户增长和内容变现可能会面临较大压力。头部内容表现或口碑未及预期头部内容表现或口碑未及预期：公司内容策略聚焦头部内容，头部内容表现对公司经营业绩造成较大影响，假若头部内容上线表现或用户口碑未及预期，公司会员订阅及广告招商均受到直接冲击。29 海外行业深度报告 互联网电商互联网电商 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 分析师介绍分析师介绍 孙晓磊孙晓磊 海外研究首席分析师，北京航空航天大学硕士，游戏产业和金融业 6 年复合从业经历，专注于互联网研究，对腾讯、网易、阿里、美团、阅文等互联网巨头有较为深入的理解。2019 年新财富港股及海外最佳研究团队入围，2020 年、2021 年新财富港股及海外最佳研究团队第五名。崔世峰崔世峰 海外研究联席首席分析师，南京大学硕士，5 年买方及卖方复合从业经历，专注于互联网龙头公司研究，所在卖方团队获得 2019-2020 年新财富传媒最佳研究团队第二名。30 海外行业深度报告 互联网电商互联网电商 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 评级说明评级说明 投资评级标准 评级 说明 报告中投资建议涉及的评级标准为报告发布日后6个月内的相对市场表现，也即报告发布日后的 6 个月内公司股价（或行业指数）相对同期相关证券市场代表性指数的涨跌幅作为基准。A 股市场以沪深300指数作为基准；新三板市场以三板成指为基准；香港市场以恒生指数作为基准；美国市场以标普 500 指数为基准。股票评级 买入 相对涨幅 15以上 增持 相对涨幅 5 中性 相对涨幅-5%5之间 减持 相对跌幅 5 卖出 相对跌幅 15以上 行业评级 强于大市 相对涨幅 10%以上 中性 相对涨幅-10-10%之间 弱于大市 相对跌幅 10%以上 分析师声明分析师声明 本报告署名分析师在此声明：（i）以勤勉的职业态度、专业审慎的研究方法，使用合法合规的信息，独立、客观地出具本报告,结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响。（ii）本人不曾因，不因，也将不会因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直接或间接收到任何形式的补偿。法律主体说明法律主体说明 本报告由中信建投证券股份有限公司及/或其附属机构（以下合称“中信建投”）制作，由中信建投证券股份有限公司在中华人民共和国（仅为本报告目的，不包括香港、澳门、台湾）提供。中信建投证券股份有限公司具有中国证监会许可的投资咨询业务资格，本报告署名分析师所持中国证券业协会授予的证券投资咨询执业资格证书编号已披露在报告首页。在遵守适用的法律法规情况下，本报告亦可能由中信建投（国际）证券有限公司在香港提供。本报告作者所持香港证监会牌照的中央编号已披露在报告首页。一般性声明一般性声明 本报告由中信建投制作。发送本报告不构成任何合同或承诺的基础，不因接收者收到本报告而视其为中信建投客户。本报告的信息均来源于中信建投认为可靠的公开资料，但中信建投对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载观点、评估和预测仅反映本报告出具日该分析师的判断，该等观点、评估和预测可能在不发出通知的情况下有所变更，亦有可能因使用不同假设和标准或者采用不同分析方法而与中信建投其他部门、人员口头或书面表达的意见不同或相反。本报告所引证券或其他金融工具的过往业绩不代表其未来表现。报告中所含任何具有预测性质的内容皆基于相应的假设条件，而任何假设条件都可能随时发生变化并影响实际投资收益。中信建投不承诺、不保证本报告所含具有预测性质的内容必然得以实现。本报告内容的全部或部分均不构成投资建议。本报告所包含的观点、建议并未考虑报告接收人在财务状况、投资目的、风险偏好等方面的具体情况，报告接收者应当独立评估本报告所含信息，基于自身投资目标、需求、市场机会、风险及其他因素自主做出决策并自行承担投资风险。中信建投建议所有投资者应就任何潜在投资向其税务、会计或法律顾问咨询。不论报告接收者是否根据本报告做出投资决策，中信建投都不对该等投资决策提供任何形式的担保，亦不以任何形式分享投资收益或者分担投资损失。中信建投不对使用本报告所产生的任何直接或间接损失承担责任。在法律法规及监管规定允许的范围内，中信建投可能持有并交易本报告中所提公司的股份或其他财产权益，也可能在过去 12 个月、目前或者将来为本报告中所提公司提供或者争取为其提供投资银行、做市交易、财务顾问或其他金融服务。本报告内容真实、准确、完整地反映了署名分析师的观点，分析师的薪酬无论过去、现在或未来都不会直接或间接与其所撰写报告中的具体观点相联系，分析师亦不会因撰写本报告而获取不当利益。本报告为中信建投所有。未经中信建投事先书面许可，任何机构和/或个人不得以任何形式转发、翻版、复制、发布或引用本报告全部或部分内容，亦不得从未经中信建投书面授权的任何机构、个人或其运营的媒体平台接收、翻版、复制或引用本报告全部或部分内容。版权所有，违者必究。中信建投证券研究发展部中信建投证券研究发展部 中信建投（国际）中信建投（国际）北京 上海 深圳 香港 东城区朝内大街 2 号凯恒中心 B座 12 层 上海浦东新区浦东南路 528 号南塔 2106 室 福田区益田路 6003 号荣超商务中心 B 座 22 层 中环交易广场 2 期 18 楼 电话：（8610）8513-0588 电话：（8621）6882-1600 电话：（86755）8252-1369 电话：（852）3465-5600 联系人：李祉瑶 联系人：翁起帆 联系人：曹莹 联系人：刘泓麟 邮箱：邮箱：邮箱：邮箱：charleneliucsci.hk

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Scree-Company Research Report - Leading Military Electronic Component Testing Company Will Ridge the Wind-230208（33页）.pdf

请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明 Table_Info1Table_Info1 思科瑞思科瑞(688053)(688053)国防军工国防军工 Table_Date 发布时间：发布时间：2023-02-08 Table_Invest 买入买入 首次 覆盖 Table_Market 股票数据 2023/02/08 6 个月目标价（元）-收盘价（元）69.69 12 个月股价区间（元）50.1582.90 总市值（百万元）6,969.00 总股本（百万股）100 A 股（百万股）100 B 股/H 股（百万股）0/0 日均成交量（百万股）1 Table_PicQuote 历史收益率曲线 Table_Trend涨跌幅（%）1M 3M 12M 绝对收益 7%-7%相对收益 4%-16%Table_Report 相关报告 国防军工周报：军工企业陆续发布 2022 业绩预告，成飞复牌有望提振板块估值-20230205 国防军工周报：部分企业发布 2022 业绩预告，军工集团加快资产证券化-20230130 国防军工 2023 年投资策略：内需外贸双轮驱动，板块长期成长确定性高-20230104 Table_Author 证券分析师：王凤华证券分析师：王凤华 执业证书编号：S0550520020001 010-63210682 Table_Title 证券研究报告/公司深度报告 军用电子元器件检测军用电子元器件检测领领先先企业企业，乘风将起，乘风将起 报报告摘要：告摘要：Table_Summary 公司是第三方军用电子元器件检测领先企业。本篇报告我们阐明了检测行业和军用电子元器件检测领域的市场空间、竞争格局和壁垒、商业模式特点，着重探讨公司的竞争优势、未来增长的驱动力及投资逻辑。我们认为公司当前核心矛盾在于我们认为公司当前核心矛盾在于行业行业下游下游需求的高景气需求的高景气同公司检测产同公司检测产能不足能不足的的矛盾矛盾，因此因此核心关注点在于公司实验室和设备扩张核心关注点在于公司实验室和设备扩张带来的检测带来的检测产能和品类增加，是观察公司未来增长的先行驱动。产能和品类增加，是观察公司未来增长的先行驱动。检测行业长坡厚雪，增长稳定。检测行业长坡厚雪，增长稳定。全球检测行业发展百年，近十余年均增速仍保持 10%左右。企业增长的驱动来自实验室和设备的扩张。固定资产投入是企业增长的领先变量，单位资本投入带来的产出是衡量经营的重要指标。如何实现现金流与资本开支的平衡考验精细化的管理水平。军用军用电子元器件检测领域竞争格局较好，壁垒高电子元器件检测领域竞争格局较好，壁垒高，市场规模超百亿。，市场规模超百亿。由于面向军工客户，行业进入壁垒较高，参与企业以军工集团下属单位为主，规模较大的民营机构数量少，具备一定地域属性，竞争格局良好。三大核心因素驱动行业下游需求增长和市场扩容三大核心因素驱动行业下游需求增长和市场扩容。一是在于国防开支的稳健增长、二是在于国防信息化、武器装备智能化及国产化催生的军用电子元器件需求增长；三是在于第三方检测市场的扩容以及一筛市场逐步释放。当前军用电子元器件检测以体制内为主，第三方市场处于起步阶段，市场化程度偏低。市场化检测机构具有规模效应，检测成本低于内部自检，亦可规避内部利益冲突，我们认为第三方检测市场有望逐步扩容。同时，原来由生产企业自检的一筛市场也将逐步对外释放。公司竞争优势公司竞争优势显著显著，募资扩产检测产能和品类双扩张募资扩产检测产能和品类双扩张，成长性强，成长性强。公司具备 CNAS 和 DILAC 实验室资质，客户主要为军工集团下属单位，实验室布局成都、西安和无锡，辐射军工生产重地。公司盈利能力强，2021年净利率和 ROE 分别为 43.71%、36.04%，投入产出比 1.67，居行业前列。在手资金充足，上市募资 13.88 亿元，超募 7.69 亿元，支撑扩张。投资建议投资建议：预计公司 2022-2024 年营业收入分别为 2.81/4.16/5.95 亿元，归母净利润分别为1.13/1.75/2.45亿元，同比增长16.84%/54.36%/40.19%，对应 PE 分别为 61.45/39.81/28.40X，首次覆盖给予买入评级。风险提示：风险提示：产能扩张不及预期，需求下滑，业绩和估值判断不达预期。Table_Finance财务摘要（百万元）财务摘要（百万元）2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 营业收入营业收入 166 222 281 416 595( /-)X.424.12&.50H.16B.87%归属母公司归属母公司净利润净利润 75 97 113 175 245( /-)2.99(.57.84T.36.19%每股收益（元）每股收益（元）1.02 1.29 1.13 1.75 2.45 市盈率市盈率 0.00 0.00 61.45 39.81 28.40 市净率市净率 0.00 0.00 4.14 3.75 3.31 净资产收益率净资产收益率(%)42.326.04%6.74%9.42.66%股息收益率股息收益率(%)0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%总股本总股本(百万股百万股)75 75 100 100 100-40%-20%0 22/72022/102023/1思科瑞沪深300 请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明 2/33 思科瑞思科瑞/公司深度公司深度 目目 录录 1.核心观点核心观点.4 2.思科瑞：军用电子元器件可靠性检测领先企业思科瑞：军用电子元器件可靠性检测领先企业.5 2.1.迅速成长的军用电子元器件第三方检测领先企业.5 2.2.经营亮点：业绩快速增长，盈利能力强.6 2.3.实验室多地布局，深耕重点区域.10 2.4.公司股权集中，实控人张亚先生具备丰富行业内工作经验.11 3.检测行业：长坡厚雪，增长稳定空间广阔检测行业：长坡厚雪，增长稳定空间广阔.11 3.1.海外：发展百年，增速稳健，龙头具备超额收益.11 3.2.国内：行业增长迅速，六年复合增速 14.7%，格局分散，碎片化明显.14 3.3.检测行业的商业特点.16 4.军用电子元器件第三方检测：发展迅速，格局较好，壁垒高军用电子元器件第三方检测：发展迅速，格局较好，壁垒高.16 4.1.军用电子元器件检测是保证军工武器装备质量和可靠性的重要手段.16 4.2.驱动因素：国防信息化催生需求增长，第三方检测市场持续扩容.18 4.3.竞争格局：军工集团下属单位为主，第三方民营企业发展迅速.20 4.4.技术、资质及客户共同造就军用电子元器件检测行业较高的壁垒.23 4.5.公司核心竞争力：技术领先，资质齐全、拥有优质客户资源.24 4.6.公司具备行业领先的盈利能力和经营能力.25 5.募资扩产，在手资金充足，检测产能和品类双扩张募资扩产，在手资金充足，检测产能和品类双扩张.27 6.投资建议投资建议.29 7.风险提示风险提示.30 图表目录图表目录 图图 1：思科瑞大事记：思科瑞大事记.5 图图 2：公司主要服务内容：公司主要服务内容.6 图图 3：2018-2022Q1-3 公司营业收入及同比增速公司营业收入及同比增速.7 图图 4：2018-2022Q1-3 公司归母净利润及同比增速公司归母净利润及同比增速.7 图图 5：2018-2021 年公司分产品营收占比年公司分产品营收占比.7 图图 6：2021 年公司可靠性检测细分业务占比年公司可靠性检测细分业务占比.7 图图 7：2019-2021 年公司主营业务成本构成（万元）年公司主营业务成本构成（万元）.8 图图 8：2018-2021 年公司毛利率及净利率年公司毛利率及净利率.8 图图 9：公司员工数情况：公司员工数情况.8 图图 10：公司在建工程与固定资产情况：公司在建工程与固定资产情况.8 图图 11：2018-2022Q3 年公司期间费用率年公司期间费用率.9 图图 12：2018-2022Q3 年公司研发费用及同比增速年公司研发费用及同比增速.9 lVgVoYvXmW8ZeZdYoXcV7N9R9PoMmMsQpMkPmMoMkPrQmM6MrRwOwMsPoQwMmOmO 请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明 3/33 思科瑞思科瑞/公司深度公司深度 图图 13：2018-2021 年公司年公司 ROE 和和 ROIC.10 图图 14：2018-2021 年公司年公司 ROE 杜邦分析杜邦分析.10 图图 15：2021 年公司按区域划分销售收入情况年公司按区域划分销售收入情况.10 图图 16：思科瑞股权架构（截止：思科瑞股权架构（截止 2022 年年 9 月）月）.11 图图 17：全球检验检测行业市场规模及增速情况：全球检验检测行业市场规模及增速情况.12 图图 18：SGS 发展历程发展历程.12 图图 19：2000-2021 年年 SGS 营业收入营业收入.13 图图 20：2000-2021 年年 SGS 净利润与净利率净利润与净利率.13 图图 21：2000-2021 年年 SGS 的的 ROE.14 图图 22：2021 年年 SGS 营业收入构成营业收入构成.14 图图 23：2002-2022 年年 SGS 股价跑出高超额收益股价跑出高超额收益.14 图图 24：2015-2021 年我国检验检测机构营业收入年我国检验检测机构营业收入.15 图图 25：2015-2021 年我国检验检测机构数量年我国检验检测机构数量.15 图图 26：2021 年我国规模检验检测机构对比年我国规模检验检测机构对比.15 图图 27：企业制机构和事业单位制机构占比情况：企业制机构和事业单位制机构占比情况.15 图图 28：军用电子元器件产业链示意图：军用电子元器件产业链示意图.17 图图 29：思科瑞集成电路测试筛选的主要流程：思科瑞集成电路测试筛选的主要流程.17 图图 30：2010-2021 年我国国防支出及增长情况年我国国防支出及增长情况.18 图图 31：2014-2025 年我国国防信息化支出情况年我国国防信息化支出情况.18 图图 32：2010-2025 年军用电子元器件行业市场规模年军用电子元器件行业市场规模.19 图图 33：2017-2025 年军用电子元器件二筛市场预测年军用电子元器件二筛市场预测.19 图图 34：2019-2024 年典型上游元器件企业营收和归母净利润及增速年典型上游元器件企业营收和归母净利润及增速.19 图图 35：京瀚禹、西安西谷和思科瑞营业收入（万元）：京瀚禹、西安西谷和思科瑞营业收入（万元）.21 图图 36：京瀚禹、西安西谷和思科瑞：京瀚禹、西安西谷和思科瑞 2019-2021 年营业收入复合增速年营业收入复合增速.21 图图 37：可比公司毛利率对比：可比公司毛利率对比.26 图图 38：可比公司可比公司 ROE（加权）对比（加权）对比.26 图图 39：可比公司人均创收（单位：万元）：可比公司人均创收（单位：万元）.26 图图 40：可比公司人均创利（单位：万元）：可比公司人均创利（单位：万元）.26 图图 41：可比公司的资本性支出：可比公司的资本性支出/营业收入营业收入.27 图图 42：可比公司：可比公司 EBITDA 利润率利润率.27 图图 43：收入拆分：收入拆分.30 表表 1：电子元器件测试与可靠性筛选试验的主要可靠性检测项目：电子元器件测试与可靠性筛选试验的主要可靠性检测项目.17 表表 2：从事军用电子元器件可靠性检测的主要民营企业：从事军用电子元器件可靠性检测的主要民营企业.21 表表 3：从事军用电子元器件可靠性检测的主要军工集团下属检测机构：从事军用电子元器件可靠性检测的主要军工集团下属检测机构.22 表表 4：国家实验室认可与国防实验室认可：国家实验室认可与国防实验室认可.24 表表 5：思科瑞、西安西谷和京瀚禹技术对比：思科瑞、西安西谷和京瀚禹技术对比.25 表表 6：2021 年公司前五大客户销售情况年公司前五大客户销售情况.25 表表 7：2021 年可比公司的投入产出比（营业收入年可比公司的投入产出比（营业收入/固定资产原值（期初期末平均值）固定资产原值（期初期末平均值）.27 表表 8：公司主营业务产量与产能（单位：万个）：公司主营业务产量与产能（单位：万个）.28 表表 9：募资建设基地项目情况：募资建设基地项目情况.29 请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明 4/33 思科瑞思科瑞/公司深度公司深度 1.核心观点核心观点 本篇报告我们阐明了检测行业和军用电子元器件检测领域的市场空间、竞争格局和壁垒、商业模式特点，着重论述了公司的竞争优势、未来增长的驱动力及投资逻辑。检测行业：长坡厚雪，增长稳定，兼具资本和劳动密集型相结合的特性检测行业：长坡厚雪，增长稳定，兼具资本和劳动密集型相结合的特性 检测行业长坡厚雪，增长稳定，抗周期波动强。检测行业长坡厚雪，增长稳定，抗周期波动强。全球检测行业发展百年，2009-2021年均增速仍旧保持 10%水平。海外检测巨头 SGS 在 2002 年至 2022 年的 20 年时间里实现年化约 11.2%的稳定回报，超额收益明显。检测行业兼具资本和劳动密集型相结合的特性，细分领域众多竞争格局存在差异，检测行业兼具资本和劳动密集型相结合的特性，细分领域众多竞争格局存在差异，同时地域性明显，企业短期增长的驱动来源于资本投入带来的实验室同时地域性明显，企业短期增长的驱动来源于资本投入带来的实验室和检测设备的和检测设备的扩张。扩张。单位固定资产投入带来的产出是衡量企业经营的重要指标。固定资产投入往往是企业增长的领先指标。由于成本中固定成本占比高，具备较高的经营杠杆，经营杠杆带来业绩弹性，随着实验室进入产值提升期，承接检测业务的增多，收入与业务量等比例增长，而单位固定成本越来越少，利润率具备弹性。企业在经营端如企业在经营端如何实现自由现金流与资本开支的平衡考验企业精细化的管理水平。何实现自由现金流与资本开支的平衡考验企业精细化的管理水平。军用电子元器件检测军用电子元器件检测：第三方检测发展迅速，竞争格局较好，壁垒高第三方检测发展迅速，竞争格局较好，壁垒高 军用电子元器件检测领域竞争格局较好，需求高景气军用电子元器件检测领域竞争格局较好，需求高景气，市场规模超百亿，市场规模超百亿。我们预计当前军用电子元器件检测市场规模约 105 亿元。由于面向军工客户，行业进入壁垒较高，参与企业以军工集团下属单位为主，规模较大的民企检测机构数量少。行业核心驱动因素一是在于国防开支的稳健增长及装备费的占比提升，二是在于国防信息化、武器装备智能化及国产化浪潮下催生的军用电子元器件的需求增长，三是在于第三方检测市场的扩容以及一筛市场的逐步释放。当前军用电子元器件检测以体制内为主，市场化程度偏低。市场化检测机构具有规模效应，检测成本低于内部自检，亦可规避内部利益冲突，第三方检测有望逐步扩容第三方检测有望逐步扩容。同时，原来由生产企业自检的一筛市场也将逐步对外释放。龙头企业有望凭借技术、资金优势和客户优势，实现规模扩张。思科瑞：思科瑞：军用电子元器件检测军用电子元器件检测领领先先企业企业，盈利能力盈利能力优优，募资，募资扩产扩产成长性强成长性强 公司盈利能力强，投入产出比优异。公司盈利能力强，投入产出比优异。公司深耕军用电子元器件可靠性检测，2018-2021年营收 CAGR 达 50%。公司展现了强劲的盈利能力，2021 年毛利率、净利率和 ROE分别为 74.64%、43.71%、36.04%，人均创收创利与投入产出比保持行业领先水平。公司公司技术领先，资质齐全技术领先，资质齐全，拥有优质拥有优质稳定的稳定的客户资源客户资源，实验室多点布局辐射军工装，实验室多点布局辐射军工装备生产重地。备生产重地。公司拥有经 CNAS 和 DILAC 认证的检测项目或参数共计 565 项，拥有自主研发的测试程序 2.3 万余套，检测适配器 1.3 万余套，具备全面的检测能力。公司覆盖客户广泛，包括航天科工、航空工业等近 400 个军工客户。实验室布局成都、无锡、西安三地，其所在的西南、华东、西北区域是我国军工装备研制生产重地成都，可迅速响应客户需求，减少时间周期，便于市场开拓和客户关系维护。在手资金充足，募资扩产在手资金充足，募资扩产检测产能和品类双增长，业绩确定性强检测产能和品类双增长，业绩确定性强。公司上市募资。公司上市募资13.88 亿元，超募亿元，超募 7.69 亿元亿元。募资项目拟建设成都检测试验基地、环境试验中心、无锡检测试验基地，实现检测规模和品类的扩张。实验室扩张实验室扩张是检测企业增长的先是检测企业增长的先行驱动行驱动，公司在手资金充足，伴随第三方检测市场持续扩容以及一筛市场的释放，产能扩张有望持续增厚公司业绩。请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明 5/33 思科瑞思科瑞/公司深度公司深度 2.思科瑞：军用电子元器件可靠性检测领思科瑞：军用电子元器件可靠性检测领先先企业企业 2.1.迅速成长的军用电子元器件第三方检测领先企业 思科瑞是国内军用电子第三方检测行业思科瑞是国内军用电子第三方检测行业领领先先企业企业，主营业务为军用电子元器件可靠，主营业务为军用电子元器件可靠性检测服务。性检测服务。公司具体业务包括军用电子元器件的测试与可靠性筛选试验、破坏性物理分析（DPA）、失效分析与可靠性管理技术支持。主要客户为军工集团下属企业以及为军工企业配套的电子厂商，涵盖中国航天科技集团、中国航天科工集团、中国航空工业集团、中国航空发动机集团、中国船舶重工集团、中国船舶工业集团、中国兵器工业集团、中国兵器装备集团、中国电子科技集团等。公司检测的电子元器件应用涉及航天、航空、兵器、船舶、核工业、电子等军工领域，主要应用于机载、箭载、弹载、舰载、车载等军用电子系统。公司成立于公司成立于 2014 年，年，2020 年完成股份制改造，年完成股份制改造，2022 年年 7 月在上交所科创板上市。月在上交所科创板上市。公司发展过程中共经过 8 次股份转让和 3 次增资，通过设立子公司西安环宇芯、收购江苏七维，迅速扩充专业技术人才，并实现了业务范围的扩展，经营规模迅速提升。经过多年的发展，公司在市场布局、客户规模以及可靠性检测技术能力方面，形成了较强的综合市场竞争力，市场认可度高，已发展成为我国较大规模的第三方军用电子元器件可靠性检测服务提供商之一。图图 1：思科瑞大事记：思科瑞大事记 数据来源：公司公告，东北证券 公司主要业务为军用电子元器件可靠性检测服务，覆盖了主要军用电子元器件各大公司主要业务为军用电子元器件可靠性检测服务，覆盖了主要军用电子元器件各大门类。门类。主要包括军用电子元器件的测试与可靠性筛选试验、破坏性物理分析（DPA）、技术开发与支持三项业务：（1）军用电子元器件的测试与可靠性筛选试验：）军用电子元器件的测试与可靠性筛选试验：电子元器件测试是指通过开发特定程序采集电子元器件的相关参数，从而判断电子元器件的质量是否合格；可靠性筛选试验是指利用专业设备模拟不同环境，通过采用外加应力将电子元器件成品中潜在的早期失效产品剔除，从而分选出具有高可靠性产品的系列试验。主要测试和筛选的元器件包括包括集成电路（如 TTL 电路、CMOS 电路等）、分立器件（如半导体二极管、晶体管等）、电阻电容电感元件、晶圆等。（2）破坏性物理分析（）破坏性物理分析（DPA）：）：DPA 是验证电子元器件是否满足预定用途或要求，对其样品进行解剖以及解剖前后进行试验和分析的过程。DPA 主要包括外部目检、请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明 6/33 思科瑞思科瑞/公司深度公司深度 X 射线检查、声学扫描显微镜检查（SAM）、内部目检、扫描电子显微镜检查（SEM）、制样镜检、粒子碰撞噪声检测（PIND）、密封试验、键合强度、剪切强度，可实施破坏性物理分析的电子元器件主要包括：单片及混合集成电路，各种电感器、电阻器、电容器、继电器、连接器等元件，二极管、三极管、MOSFET 等分立器件，微波器件，电路板及其组件等。（3）技术开发与支持：）技术开发与支持：主要包括失效分析以及可靠性管理技术支持等业务。失效分析是检测和分析失效器件的失效模式、机理、原因和性质的分析和检查。可靠性管理技术支持是一种专门为客户提供可靠性控制的系统解决方案以及质量可靠性管理技术支持的服务。图图 2：公司主要服务内容：公司主要服务内容 数据来源：公司官网，东北证券 2.2.经营亮点：业绩快速增长，盈利能力强 营收与净利润迅速增长营收与净利润迅速增长，成长性强，成长性强。2018-2021 年，公司营业收入由 0.66 亿元增长至 2.22 亿元，年均复合增长 50.03%；归母净利润由 0.22 亿元增长至 0.97 亿元，年均复合增长 63.40%。2021 年公司实现营收 2.22 亿元，同比增长 34.12%；归母净利达 0.97 亿元，同比增长 28.57%。2022 年前三季度，公司实现营业收入 2.01 亿元，同比增长 25.05%；实现归母净利润 0.83 亿元，同比增长 13.97%。2022 年上半年受疫情影响，子公司西安环宇芯和江苏七维停工停产，公司订购的仪器也无法到货，影响正常经营活动，导致公司增速放缓。第三季度随着疫情好转，公司调整经营策略，无锡和西安基地均已恢复正常经营。我们预计随着疫情影响逐渐消退以及公司我们预计随着疫情影响逐渐消退以及公司新建产能的逐步落地，业绩有望保持高增。新建产能的逐步落地，业绩有望保持高增。请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明 7/33 思科瑞思科瑞/公司深度公司深度 图图 3：2018-2022Q1-3 公司营业收入及同比增速公司营业收入及同比增速 图图 4：2018-2022Q1-3 公司归母净利润及同比增速公司归母净利润及同比增速 数据来源：Wind，东北证券 数据来源：Wind，东北证券 分业务看，军用电子元器件的测试与可靠性筛选试验为公司主要营收来源，分业务看，军用电子元器件的测试与可靠性筛选试验为公司主要营收来源，2018 年年以来占比一直保持在以来占比一直保持在 80%以上。以上。具体到细分领域上，可靠性测试筛选的元器件主要包括集成电路、分立器件、阻容感、其他元器件和晶圆，其中集成电路、分立器件、阻容感收入占比较大，2021 年收入占可靠性检测筛选业务的营收比例分别为41.68%、20.62%和 19.18%。图图 5：2018-2021 年公司分产品营收占比年公司分产品营收占比 图图 6：2021 年公司可靠性检测细分业务占比年公司可靠性检测细分业务占比 数据来源：Wind，东北证券 数据来源：Wind，东北证券 成本端，公司主营业务成本主要由直接人工和制造费用构成。成本端，公司主营业务成本主要由直接人工和制造费用构成。2019-2021 年间直接人工占比分别为 34.11%、33.73%、43.48%，主要为检测人员薪酬；制造费用占比分别 52.14%、57.82%、47.79%，主要为机器设备折旧和检测过程中消耗的电力等费用。公司整体盈利能力较强，毛利率和净利率保持较高水平，公司整体盈利能力较强，毛利率和净利率保持较高水平，2018-2021 年毛利率保持年毛利率保持在在 69%-77%之间，净利率保持在之间，净利率保持在 33%-46%之间。之间。2018-2021 年公司的毛利率分别为 69.58%、76.78%、76.48%、74.64%，净利率为 33.91%、33.08%、45.75%、43.71%。2021 年公司整体毛利率下降 2.04pct，主要系公司在可靠性检测筛选业务上，通过适当降低产品价格等方式扩大市场份额，导致毛利率小幅下降。请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明 8/33 思科瑞思科瑞/公司深度公司深度 图图 7：2019-2021 年公司主营业务成本构成（万元）年公司主营业务成本构成（万元）图图 8：2018-2021 年公司毛利率及净利率年公司毛利率及净利率 数据来源：Wind，东北证券 数据来源：Wind，东北证券 员工数和实验室资产员工数和实验室资产扩张扩张是驱动收入增长的是驱动收入增长的重要因素，公司员工数量稳步增长，在重要因素，公司员工数量稳步增长，在建工程与固定资产持续增长。建工程与固定资产持续增长。2019-2021 年公司员工人数分比为 201、310、388 人，同比增速分别为 36.73%、54.23%、25.16%。2019-2021 年公司在建工程与固定资产总和分别为 6961.10、8422.15、12205.08 万元，同比增速分别为 51.44%、20.99%、44.92%。2022 年前三季度在建工程与固定资产之和为 16831.89 万元，较 2021 年末增加 4626.81 万元，增长 37.9%。表明表明公司正处于公司正处于加速加速扩张期。扩张期。图图 9：公司员工数情况：公司员工数情况 图图 10：公司在建工程与固定资产情况：公司在建工程与固定资产情况 数据来源：Wind，东北证券 数据来源：Wind，东北证券 期间费用率管控良好。期间费用率管控良好。公司 2018-2021 年期间费用率分别为 30.32%、36.53%、24.47%、24.40%，整体稳中有降。2019 年因实施股权激励计划导致当年管理费用占比较高，在剔除股权激励费用后，公司 2019 年管理费用占营业收入比例为 9.23%，与 2020-2021 年管理费用率不存在较大差异。2021 年公司销售、管理、财务、研发费用率分别 6.60%、9.52%、0.91%、7.37%，较上年同期变动 0.27%、-0.38%、0.47%、-0.43%。我们预计未来随公司收入规模增加及规模效应显现，公司期间费用率有望稳中有降。我们预计未来随公司收入规模增加及规模效应显现，公司期间费用率有望稳中有降。请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明 9/33 思科瑞思科瑞/公司深度公司深度 图图 11：2018-2022Q3 年公司期间费用率年公司期间费用率 数据来源：Wind，东北证券 公司重视研发投入，研发费用稳步提升，检测能力逐步加强。公司重视研发投入，研发费用稳步提升，检测能力逐步加强。军工产品对环境适应性和可靠耐用性要求高，检测需求也更多样化，公司需针对各类电子元器件的特性以及客户产品应用要求进行检测方法及工艺流程的研发。2019-2021 年研发费用分别为 1040.39 万元、1291.72 万元、1636.1 万元，同比增速分别为 75.89%、24.16%、26.66%。公司以市场需求为导向，建立了一个以技术开发室、工艺研发室以及 DPA研发室为研究架构的研发体系，集中在测试程序、检测适配器、工艺流程等技术研发，不断提升和改进军用电子元器件可靠性测试与筛选试验技术。持续的研发投入持续的研发投入保证公司可靠性检测技术在行业内处于优势地位，具备满足军工类客户不同元器件保证公司可靠性检测技术在行业内处于优势地位，具备满足军工类客户不同元器件多样化检测要求的能力多样化检测要求的能力。图图 12：2018-2022Q3 年公司研发费用及同比增速年公司研发费用及同比增速 数据来源：Wind，东北证券 ROE，ROIC 维持高水平。维持高水平。2018-2021 年公司的 ROE 水平分别为 39.21%、请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明 10/33 思科瑞思科瑞/公司深度公司深度 34.90%、44.30%和 36.01%。拆解来看，其中销售净利率 33.91%、33.08%、45.75%、43.71%、41.22%，权益系数分别为 1.45、1.58、1.4、1.3，资产周转率分别为 0.80、0.68、0.69、0.63。高高 ROE 水平主要由净利率驱动，公水平主要由净利率驱动，公司司当前当前杠杆水平较低。杠杆水平较低。图图 13：2018-2021 年公司年公司 ROE 和和 ROIC 图图 14：2018-2021 年公司年公司 ROE 杜邦分析杜邦分析 数据来源：Wind，东北证券 数据来源：Wind，东北证券 2.3.实验室多地布局，深耕重点区域 公司深耕重点区域，实验室布局在成都、无锡、西安等军工企业和院所较为集中的公司深耕重点区域，实验室布局在成都、无锡、西安等军工企业和院所较为集中的地方，可快速响应客户需求。地方，可快速响应客户需求。军用电子元器件可靠性检测具有一定的服务半径，客户层面对于检测报告的时效性要求较高，一般一至两周。公司在成都、无锡、西安三地设立了服务基地，成都、无锡、西安所在的西南、华东、西北区域是我国各类军工企业和国防科技院较为集中的地方，可迅速响应客户对电子元器件检测周期要求较短的需求，减少运输费用及时间周期，便于市场开拓和客户关系维护，为公司经营业绩的持续提升奠定良好的基础。图图 15：2021 年公司按区域划分销售收入情况年公司按区域划分销售收入情况 数据来源：Wind，东北证券 请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明 11/33 思科瑞思科瑞/公司深度公司深度 2.4.公司股权集中，实控人张亚先生具备丰富行业内工作经验 公司股权集中，实控人为张亚先生。公司股权集中，实控人为张亚先生。张亚与周文梅夫妻通过建水铨钧控制公司 54.91%的股份，通过新余环亚控制公司 1.82%的股份，合计间接控制公司 56.73%的股份。张亚为公司实际控制人，并任公司董事长一职。张亚先生自 2000 年 10 月起任深圳市正和兴电子有限公司执行董事，总经理，2018 年起担任成都国光电气股份有限公司董事长，2017 年 8 月至 2020 年 5 月任成都思科瑞微电子有限公司执行董事;2020年 6 月起任思科瑞董事长，具备丰富的业内工作经验。另外，公司核心技术人员均具有 20 年以上军工电子行业的研究和开发经验。我们认为，军用电子元器件检测行业本质为服务业，我们认为，军用电子元器件检测行业本质为服务业，主要主要面向军工客户，客户渠道面向军工客户，客户渠道的开拓和拿单能力对企业成长的开拓和拿单能力对企业成长十分十分重要，公司管理层丰富的业内经历和积累有望帮重要，公司管理层丰富的业内经历和积累有望帮助公司获取资源。助公司获取资源。图图 16：思科瑞股权架构（截止：思科瑞股权架构（截止 2022 年年 9 月）月）数据来源：iFind，思科瑞招股说明书，东北证券 3.检测行业检测行业：长坡厚雪，增长稳定空间广阔长坡厚雪，增长稳定空间广阔 3.1.海外：发展百年，增速稳健，龙头具备超额收益 海外检测行业发展百年，海外检测行业发展百年，2009-2021 年增速年增速仍仍保持保持 10%水平，约为同期全球水平，约为同期全球 GDP 年年均复合增速的均复合增速的 2 倍。倍。2009 至 2021 年，全球检验检测市场空间从 741 亿欧元提升至2342 亿欧元，CAGR 10.8%，约为同期全球 GDP 年均复合增速的 2 倍（同期全球GDP CAGR 为 5.8%），检测行业增长稳定，发展空间广阔。请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明 12/33 思科瑞思科瑞/公司深度公司深度 图图 17：全球检验检测行业市场规模及增速情况：全球检验检测行业市场规模及增速情况 数据来源：中商产业研究院，东北证券 国外检测行业发展较早，在欧美等发达国家各类检测检验服务已经趋于完善，同时国外检测行业发展较早，在欧美等发达国家各类检测检验服务已经趋于完善，同时 诞生了一批在全球范围内有悠久历史和强大品牌影响力的综合检测机构。诞生了一批在全球范围内有悠久历史和强大品牌影响力的综合检测机构。代表企业包括SGS(通标标准技术服务有限公司)、BV(必维国际检验集团)、Intertek(天祥集团)、Eurofins(欧陆集团)等。BV 服务领域集中在质量、健康、安全和环境管理以及社会责任评估领域，2021 年营收约 366 亿元。Intertek 是世界上规模最大的消费品测试检验公司，2021 年营收 230 亿元。Eurofins 在食品、制药、环境和消费品行业为客户及政府机构提供全方位的测试认证服务，2021 年营收约 494 亿元。国际检测龙头国际检测龙头 SGS 发展历程：从单一行业检测向综合检测机构迈进。发展历程：从单一行业检测向综合检测机构迈进。SGS 是全球领先的检验、鉴定、测试和认证机构。SGS 在世界各地共有 90,000 多名员工，拥有2000 多个分支机构和实验室。SGS 创立于 1878 年，以开创性的农产检验服务革新了欧洲谷物贸易进程。在 20 世纪中期，公司范围扩大至多个行业领域，包括工业、矿产、石油、天然气和化学品。内生增长与外延并购并举是综合性大体量检测机构的必经之路。图图 18：SGS 发展历程发展历程 数据来源：SGS 官网，东北证券 请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明 13/33 思科瑞思科瑞/公司深度公司深度 SGS 主营业务多样，主营业务多样，营业收入增速稳定，净利率维持高水平，营业收入增速稳定，净利率维持高水平，ROE 持续增长。持续增长。根据 SGS 官网，2021 年 SGS 主营业务分别为工业与环境，自然环境，连接与产品，健康与营养和知识，占比分别 33.10%、23%、20.11%、13.44%、10.35%。2000-2021年间，SGS 公司营业收入从 23.69 亿增长至 64.05 亿瑞士法郎，CAGR 为 4.85%。净利润从 1.29 亿增长至 6.13 亿瑞士法郎，CAGR 为 7.70%。2003-2021 年间净利率维持在 10%水平。SGS 盈利能力较强，2021 年 ROE 超过 50%。图图 19：2000-2021 年年 SGS 营业收入营业收入 数据来源：SGS 官网，东北证券 图图 20：2000-2021 年年 SGS 净利润与净利率净利润与净利率 数据来源：SGS 官网，东北证券 请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明 14/33 思科瑞思科瑞/公司深度公司深度 图图 21：2000-2021 年年 SGS 的的 ROE 图图 22：2021 年年 SGS 营业收入构成营业收入构成 数据来源：SGS 官网，东北证券 数据来源：SGS 官网，东北证券 SGS 长周期给投资人带来丰厚回报，长周期给投资人带来丰厚回报，二十年股票年化回报率约二十年股票年化回报率约 11.2%。2002-2022年SGS股票平均年化回报率约为11.2，同期SMI大盘指数年化回报率约为4.2%，SGS 给投资人带来较丰厚的回报，具备较高超额收益率。图图 23：2002-2022 年年 SGS 股价跑出高超额收益股价跑出高超额收益 数据来源：Bloomberg，Wind，东北证券 3.2.国内：行业增长迅速，六年复合增速 14.7%，格局分散，碎片化明显 行业规模层面，行业规模层面，国内检验检测国内检验检测行业规模行业规模持续扩大，保持较快增速。持续扩大，保持较快增速。根据国家市场监督管理总局数据，2015-2021 年国内检测机构营收收入从 1800 亿元增长至 4090亿元，CAGR 为 14.7%，保持较快的增速。2021 年民营检验检测机构全年取得营收 1656.91 亿元，同比增长 19.04%，高于全国检验检测行业营收年增长率 4.97 个百分点。请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明 15/33 思科瑞思科瑞/公司深度公司深度 图图 24：2015-2021 年我国检验检测机构营业收入年我国检验检测机构营业收入 图图 25：2015-2021 年我国检验检测机构数量年我国检验检测机构数量 数据来源：2021 年全国检验检测行业统计，东北证券 数据来源：2021 年全国检验检测行业统计，东北证券 行业格局分散，小微型机构数量多。行业格局分散，小微型机构数量多。2021 年，我国共有有各类检测机构 51949 家，实现营业收入 4090.22 亿元，平均营业收入仅 787.31 万元。其中规模以上检验检测机构数量为 7021 家，规模以上检验检测机构数量仅占全行业的 13.52%。就业人数在 100 人以下的检验检测机构数量占比达到 96.31%。行业碎片化特征明显，龙头企行业碎片化特征明显，龙头企业有望凭借规模和资本优势，不断扩张份额。业有望凭借规模和资本优势，不断扩张份额。事业单位制检验检测机构比重进一步下降，企业制单位占比持续上升事业单位制检验检测机构比重进一步下降，企业制单位占比持续上升。根据国家市场监督管理总局 2021 年关于进一步深化改革促进检验检测行业做优做强的指导意见，事业单位性质检验检测机构的市场化改革有序推进，鼓励社会资本进入检验检测行业。2013 年-2021 年事业单位性质检验检测机构占比从 42.55%下降至 20.87%，企业制机构从 54.58%上升至 73.24%。截至 2021 年底，全国取得资质认定的民营检验检测机构共 30727 家，同比增长 12.54%，民营检验检测机构数量占全行业的59.15%，较 2013 年上升 32.53 个百分点。图图 26：2021 年我国规模检验检测机构对比年我国规模检验检测机构对比 图图 27：企业制机构和事业单位制机构占比情况：企业制机构和事业单位制机构占比情况 数据来源：2021 年全国检验检测行业统计，东北证券 数据来源：2021 年全国检验检测行业统计，东北证券 请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明 16/33 思科瑞思科瑞/公司深度公司深度 3.3.检测行业的商业特点 我们认为，检测行业具备长期成长价值，周期性较弱，兼具资本和劳动密集型相结我们认为，检测行业具备长期成长价值，周期性较弱，兼具资本和劳动密集型相结合的特性，细分领域众多竞争格局存在差异，同时地域性明显。企业成长路径来自合的特性，细分领域众多竞争格局存在差异，同时地域性明显。企业成长路径来自于实验室和人员扩张、检测品类增长以及兼并收购。于实验室和人员扩张、检测品类增长以及兼并收购。行业里既可以容纳综合性检测巨头，也可以跑出来细分领域冠军。其商业属性具备以下几个重要特点：（1）服务属性明显，品牌和公信力是第三方检测行业的核心竞争力）服务属性明显，品牌和公信力是第三方检测行业的核心竞争力之一之一。品牌力和公信力需要长期积累，欧美检测行业发展早，经过长期积累已经形成强大的护城河，后进入者需要较长时间积累。（2）企业短期增长的动力来源于资本投入下的实验室扩张，单位）企业短期增长的动力来源于资本投入下的实验室扩张，单位资本资本投入带来的投入带来的营收（投入产出比）是衡量企业经营的重要指标营收（投入产出比）是衡量企业经营的重要指标。存量实验室的收入和利润在产能利用率相对饱和的时候不会有太大增长，需要有新增的实验产能（设备或者人工）才会带来新的增量。固定资产投入往往是企业增长的领先指标。由于成本中固定成本占比高，具备一定经营杠杆，随着实验室进入产值提升期，承接检测业务的增多，收入与业务量等比例增长，而单位固定成本越来越少，利润率具备弹性。（3）长期考验精细化管理能力）长期考验精细化管理能力。碎片化、区域化、季节性的经营方式对管理难度非常高，实验室从设立到盈亏平衡时间有一定周期，产出滞后于投入，会带来利润率的摊薄，如何平衡收入增速和利润率是检测行业的难题，企业在经营端如何实现自由现金流与资本开支的平衡考验企业精细化的管理水平，亦是竞争的核心。4.军用电子元器件第三方检测：发展迅速，格局较好，壁垒高军用电子元器件第三方检测：发展迅速，格局较好，壁垒高 4.1.军用电子元器件检测是保证军工武器装备质量和可靠性的重要手段 军用电子元器件的质量对武器装备的质量至关重要，元器件的检测筛选是质量控制、军用电子元器件的质量对武器装备的质量至关重要，元器件的检测筛选是质量控制、提高元器件可靠性的重要手段。军用电子元器件检测包括元器件制造产业的质量一提高元器件可靠性的重要手段。军用电子元器件检测包括元器件制造产业的质量一致性检查（第一次筛选，简称“一筛”）、元器件的第二次检测筛选（第二次筛选，致性检查（第一次筛选，简称“一筛”）、元器件的第二次检测筛选（第二次筛选，简称“二筛”）等。简称“二筛”）等。目前大部分一筛业务主要由生产厂家自主完成，各个专业检测机构主要承接二筛业务，面向对象主要是元器件使用方。另外，元器件制造厂商根据自身经营需要也会将部分一筛业务对外委托检测，市场空间有望扩容。军用电子元器件要求较高，通常要求全部进行二次筛选。军用电子元器件要求较高，通常要求全部进行二次筛选。军用电子元器件的二次筛选是保证军工武器装备质量和可靠性的重要手段。二次筛选就是针对不同的失效模式进行一些试验以剔除不合格的、或由于某种缺陷会引起早期失效的元器件，保证系统的综合性能和可靠性。通过筛选剔除早期失效的产品，可以提高批次产品的可靠性水平。在正常情况下，失效率可以降低半个到一个数量级，个别甚至可以降低两个数量级。二次筛选的质量直接影响着型号产品的质量，通常情况下，对军工产品的电子元器件要求全部进行二次筛选。从产业链来看，电子元器件可靠性检测服务是“链接”上游军用电子元器件制造商与下游军工应用领域不可缺少的重要环节 请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明 17/33 思科瑞思科瑞/公司深度公司深度 图图 28：军用电子元器件产业链示意图：军用电子元器件产业链示意图 数据来源：思科瑞招股说明书，东北证券 二次筛选试验的项目较多，二次筛选试验的项目较多，具体检测内容根据客户需求不同有所差异。具体检测内容根据客户需求不同有所差异。与其他检测与其他检测行业的特点类似，业务的开展和扩张需要行业的特点类似，业务的开展和扩张需要实验室和实验室和检测设备等固定资产投入检测设备等固定资产投入，因此因此投入产出比是关键投入产出比是关键。以思科瑞为例，其检测项目通常包括外部目检、常温初测、SAM、X-ray、高温贮存、低温贮存、温度循环、恒定加速度、PIND、常温中测、老炼等。检测的元器件包括集成电路、分立器件、电阻、电容、电感等。表表 1：电子元器件测试与可靠性筛选试验的主要可靠性检测项目：电子元器件测试与可靠性筛选试验的主要可靠性检测项目 类型类型 电子元器件种类电子元器件种类 主要测试参数或筛选项目主要测试参数或筛选项目 电子元器件测试电子元器件测试 集成电路 静态参数、动态参数、功能等 晶圆 导通电阻、静态参数、功能等 分立器件 静态参数、动态参数等 阻容感 直流电阻 Q、绝缘电阻 Q、容值 F、感量 H、损耗等 其他元器件 静态参数、功能等 可靠性筛选试验可靠性筛选试验 各类电子元器件 外部目检、常温初测、SAM、X-ray、高温贮存、低温贮存、温度循环、恒定加速度、PIND、常温中测、老炼、高温测试、低温测试、密封试验、常温终测、外部目检、筛选标记等 数据来源：思科瑞招股说明书，东北证券 图图 29：思科瑞集成电路测试筛选的主要流程：思科瑞集成电路测试筛选的主要流程 数据来源：思科瑞招股说明书，东北证券 请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明 18/33 思科瑞思科瑞/公司深度公司深度 4.2.驱动因素：国防信息化催生需求增长，第三方检测市场持续扩容 从行业的驱动因素来看，军用电子元器件检测行业位于军工行业上游，其核心驱动从行业的驱动因素来看，军用电子元器件检测行业位于军工行业上游，其核心驱动因素一是来自于国防开支的稳健增长及装备费的占比提升，这也是整个军工行业的因素一是来自于国防开支的稳健增长及装备费的占比提升，这也是整个军工行业的发展机遇所在；二是充分受益于国防信息化、武器装备智能化及国产化浪潮下催生发展机遇所在；二是充分受益于国防信息化、武器装备智能化及国产化浪潮下催生的军工电子元器件的需求增长；三是在于第三方检测市场的扩容以及的军工电子元器件的需求增长；三是在于第三方检测市场的扩容以及一筛市场逐步一筛市场逐步释放带来释放带来的机遇。的机遇。核心驱动因素一：核心驱动因素一：国防开支的稳健增长及装备费的占比提升国防开支的稳健增长及装备费的占比提升。我国 2021 年国防支出约 1.38 万亿元，相比 2020 年提升 6.2%，占中国 GDP 的约 1.20%，继续保持适度稳定增长。自改革开放以来，中国国防开支总体保持与国家经济和财政支出同步适度协调增长。在国防支出稳定增长的前提下，武器装备支出相对增长更快。根据 新时代的中国国防白皮书，我国装备费在国防支出中的占比由 2010 年的 33.2%上升至 2017 年的 41.4%。图图 30：2010-2021 年我国国防支出及增长情况年我国国防支出及增长情况 图图 31：2014-2025 年我国国防信息化支出情况年我国国防信息化支出情况 数据来源：国家统计局，东北证券 数据来源：智研咨询，东北证券 核心驱动因素二：国防信息化、武器装备智能化及国产化浪潮下催生的军工电子元核心驱动因素二：国防信息化、武器装备智能化及国产化浪潮下催生的军工电子元器件的需求增长。器件的需求增长。根据智研咨询，我国 2021 年国防信息化支出为 1057 亿，预计 2025年增长至 1462 亿元。军用电子元器件已成为发展现代电子信息化武器装备的必备元件。全球正经历机械化战争形态向信息化军事形态的转变，而这场变革的核心和本质就是信息化。实现武器装备信息化的必要条件是拥有高水平、高可靠性的军用电子元器件。军用电子元器件处于军工产业链上游，充分受益新型装备放量、电子设备用量提升军用电子元器件处于军工产业链上游，充分受益新型装备放量、电子设备用量提升以及国产替代的三重驱动，元器件的需求提升也将带来检测市场规模提升。我们估以及国产替代的三重驱动，元器件的需求提升也将带来检测市场规模提升。我们估算算 2021 年军用电子元器件二筛市场规模约年军用电子元器件二筛市场规模约 105 亿元亿元。根据前瞻产业研究院统计，2021 年市场规模 3507亿元，到 2025 年我国军用电子元器件市场将突破 5000亿元。据华经产业研究院，集成电路测试的费用约占整个芯片环节的集成电路测试的费用约占整个芯片环节的 525%左右左右，浮动比例受到芯片应用差异较大。我们保守估计军用电子元器件二筛费用占元器件价值量我们保守估计军用电子元器件二筛费用占元器件价值量平均平均比例为比例为 3%，以此估算，以此估算 2021 年军用电子元器件二筛市场规模约年军用电子元器件二筛市场规模约 105 亿元，预计亿元，预计2025 年市场规模达到年市场规模达到 150 亿元，复合平均增速约亿元，复合平均增速约 9.4%。请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明 19/33 思科瑞思科瑞/公司深度公司深度 图图 32：2010-2025 年军用电子元器件行业市场规模年军用电子元器件行业市场规模 图图 33：2017-2025 年军用电子元器件二筛市场预测年军用电子元器件二筛市场预测 数据来源：前瞻产业研究院，东北证券 数据来源：前瞻产业研究院，东北证券 从典型军工电子元器件企业的增速来看，亦可窥见行业较高的景气度。从典型军工电子元器件企业的增速来看，亦可窥见行业较高的景气度。我们选取紫光国微，振华科技，鸿远电子，宏达电子，新雷能五家军工电子企业来观察，2019-2021 年五家企业的合计营收分别为 97.70、111.64、168.79 亿元，复合增长率约 31%，2019-2021 合计归母净利润分别为 13.37、25.05、53.61 亿元，复合增长率约 100%。根据 Wind 一致预测，2022-2024 年五家企业合计营收为 224.39、292.29、371.88 亿元，复合增速约 29%，2022-2024 年合计归母净利润分别为 76.30、101.45、131.95亿元，复合增速约 32%。我们认为我们认为在在国防信息化、武器装备智能化及国产化浪潮下，整个军工电子元器件行国防信息化、武器装备智能化及国产化浪潮下，整个军工电子元器件行业将保持高景气度，也将带动军用电子元器件检测市场的快速增长。业将保持高景气度，也将带动军用电子元器件检测市场的快速增长。图图 34：2019-2024 年典型上游元器件企业营收和归母净利润及增速年典型上游元器件企业营收和归母净利润及增速 数据来源：Wind，东北证券（注：2022-2024 年数据为 Wind 一致预期）核心驱动因素三：核心驱动因素三：体制改革驱动专业第三方检测市场的扩容以及向一筛市场拓展带体制改革驱动专业第三方检测市场的扩容以及向一筛市场拓展带来的机遇。来的机遇。请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明 20/33 思科瑞思科瑞/公司深度公司深度 目前军用电子元器件检测以国内军工集团下属部门为主，第三方市场处于起步阶段，市占率较低。市场化检测机构具有规模效应，检测成本低于企业内部自检，独立检市场化检测机构具有规模效应，检测成本低于企业内部自检，独立检测机构避免了企业内部利益冲突，测机构避免了企业内部利益冲突，同时因为第三方检测机构同时因为第三方检测机构在组织上更加在组织上更加灵活灵活，其，其服务效率、响应速度服务效率、响应速度往往往往更快更快。基于以上优势我们认为第三方检测份额有望逐步增基于以上优势我们认为第三方检测份额有望逐步增大，体制内市场有望逐步释放大，体制内市场有望逐步释放。目前第三方企业主要参与电子元器件二筛环节，而一筛以生产企目前第三方企业主要参与电子元器件二筛环节，而一筛以生产企业自检为主，对于业自检为主，对于生产企业来说往往需要投入较多的设备和人力，部分复杂项目检测难度大，企业自生产企业来说往往需要投入较多的设备和人力，部分复杂项目检测难度大，企业自投经济性较低。我们认为一筛市场也有望贡献增量投经济性较低。我们认为一筛市场也有望贡献增量。目前思科瑞也已经承担部分一筛业务。4.3.竞争格局：军工集团下属单位为主，第三方民营企业发展迅速 目前军用电子元器件检测领域的参与企业以国内军工集团直属部门为主，民营检测目前军用电子元器件检测领域的参与企业以国内军工集团直属部门为主，民营检测企业较少但发展迅速。企业较少但发展迅速。当前市场参与者主要有两类，军工集团下属企业（或科研院所）的检测部门或检测机构和国内独立第三方的民营检测机构。由于军工检测行业有较高的资质壁垒和技术壁垒，行业内独立第三方民营检测机构较少，目前三家规模较大的民营企业分别为京瀚禹、西安西谷和思科瑞，另外上市公司西测测试也有部分电子元器件检测业务。京瀚禹为北摩高科下属子公司，主要检测基地在北京、西安，在服务华北、西北区域客户方面具有优势；西安西谷为旋极信息下属子公司，主要检测基地在西安，在服务西北区域客户方面具有优势；思科瑞在成都、无锡、西安均设有检测基地，在服务西南、华东、西北区域客户方面具有优势。2019 年京瀚禹、西安西谷和思科瑞营业收入分别为 1.92、1.67、1.05 亿元，2021 年分别增长至 5.56、3.63、2.22 亿元，CAGR 分别为 70.04%、47.57%、45.76%，发展十分迅速。我们认为，民营检测机构凭借规模化、多品种的综合检测服务能力以及快速应对的我们认为，民营检测机构凭借规模化、多品种的综合检测服务能力以及快速应对的服务效率等优势服务效率等优势将将获得较好的发展机遇。获得较好的发展机遇。第三方第三方民营检测机构民营检测机构份额有望逐步提升。份额有望逐步提升。如前文所述，当前军用电子元器件检测市场化程度较低，按 105 亿的二筛市场规模计算，京瀚禹、西安西谷和思科瑞三家企业份额仅分别为 5.3%、3.5%、2.1%，第三方企业总体规模偏小。预计随第三方检测市场的逐步释放，第三方检测企业份额有望逐步提升。请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明 21/33 思科瑞思科瑞/公司深度公司深度 图图 35：京瀚禹、西安西谷和思科瑞营业收入（：京瀚禹、西安西谷和思科瑞营业收入（万万元）元）图图 36：京瀚禹、西安西谷和思科瑞：京瀚禹、西安西谷和思科瑞 2019-2021 年年营营业收入复合增速业收入复合增速 数据来源：思科瑞招股说明书，东北证券（注：京瀚禹 2020 年数据未公开）数据来源：思科瑞招股说明书，东北证券 表表 2：从事军用电子元器件可靠性检测的主要民营企业：从事军用电子元器件可靠性检测的主要民营企业 公司名称公司名称 基本情况基本情况 市场布局情况市场布局情况 京瀚禹京瀚禹 提供集成电路、分立器件、阻容元件、继电器、晶体元件等器件的筛选、破坏性物理分析（DPA）、鉴定检测、失效分析（FA）等可靠性检测试验，以及元器件封装测试，测试程序开发等服务。北京，西安 西安西谷西安西谷 国内第一家独立第三方电子元器件检验检测机构，主要从事电子元器件测试、筛选、破坏性物理分析、失效分析及相关技术服务。西安 西安君信电子科西安君信电子科技有限责任公司技有限责任公司 主营产品射频芯片、晶圆芯片测试、新型射频前端、模块封装继承、SIP、微波电路、集成电路、半导体器件的鉴定、测试、老练、破坏性物理分析、结构分析、可靠性研究分析等工作。西安 西安西测测试技西安西测测试技术股份有限公司术股份有限公司 主要从事军用装备和民用飞机的环境与可靠性试验、电磁兼容性测试、元器件检测筛选等的检验检测技术服务和咨询服务。西安 广东科鉴检测工广东科鉴检测工程技术有限公司程技术有限公司 拥有安全测试、环境试验、可靠性试验、软件测评、元器件老化筛选实验室。广州,北京,深圳 成都摩尔环宇测成都摩尔环宇测试技术有限公司试技术有限公司 专业从事环境与可靠性试验、软件评测、电磁兼容试验和认证服务的第三方实验室。成都 成都中航华测科成都中航华测科技有限公司技有限公司 专业从事电子元器件、数字板卡、射频微波组件、电源模块等产品的环境试验技术咨询服务和第三方试验检测工作。成都 陕西海测电子技陕西海测电子技术服务有限公司术服务有限公司 可进行气候环境试验：高低温、湿热、温度循环、温度冲击、高温寿命、霉菌、盐雾、带风源淋雨、振动、冲击试验等；元器件检测：接触电阻、绝缘电阻、介质耐电压、品质因素、电容量、损耗角正切、电感量、阻抗、漏电流等试验。西安 数据来源：思科瑞招股说明书，东北证券 请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明 22/33 思科瑞思科瑞/公司深度公司深度 表表 3：从事军用电子元器件可靠性检测的主要军工集团下属检测机构：从事军用电子元器件可靠性检测的主要军工集团下属检测机构 公司名称公司名称 基本情况基本情况 市场布局情况市场布局情况 北京东方计量测北京东方计量测试研究所试研究所 计量校准、产品研制、试验检测三大主营业务，具备环境试验、真空检测、导航产品检测等试验检测能力 北京 西安空间无线电西安空间无线电技术研究所技术研究所 拥有元器件可靠性实验室，隶属于中国航天科技集团有限公司第五研究院 西安 西安太乙电子有西安太乙电子有限公司限公司 国内最早系统化、专业化开展电子元器件测试、筛选、失效分析和可靠性研究的单位之一 西安 航天材料及工艺航天材料及工艺研究所研究所 下设航天材料及工艺研究所，开展理化检测、无损检测和失效分析业务 北京 北京振兴计量测北京振兴计量测试研究所试研究所 中国航天科工三院三。三所，是集计量检定/校准/检测、元器件可靠性、光学及微波测试设备研发为一体的综合性研究所 北京 贵州航天计量测贵州航天计量测试技术研究所试技术研究所 主要承担国防计量标准校准/检测及修理、元器件复验及筛选、元器件破坏性物理分析（DPA）及失效分析、计量及元器件可靠性技术研究、测试设备和自动化测试系统研制 贵阳 中国航空无线电中国航空无线电电子研究所元器电子研究所元器件检测中心件检测中心 开展以集成电路、分立器件（二极管、三极管、光耦等）、电磁继电器、元件等为主的元器件检测和筛选技术研究 上海 西安华燕航空仪西安华燕航空仪表有限公司表有限公司 从事集成电路芯片及产品制造，检验检测服务等 西安 湖南航天管理局湖南航天管理局 拥有计量检测中心 长沙 西安泰斯特检测西安泰斯特检测技术有限公司技术有限公司 电子元器件电性能检测及可靠性试验、环境试验等 西安 天津航空机电有天津航空机电有限公司限公司 拥有试验中心与计量中心 天津 中国船舶重工集中国船舶重工集团第七团第七九研究九研究所所 拥有微电子测试校准实验室，我国最早以计算机技术为基础，开发应用为目标的国家重点单位 武汉 中国船舶重工集中国船舶重工集团第七团第七七研究七研究所所 拥有导航产品检测中心 天津 中国船舶重工集中国船舶重工集团第七一团第七一研究研究所所 拥有计量检测实验室 宜昌 中国船舶重工集中国船舶重工集团第七二三研究团第七二三研究所所 拥有电工电子设备环境与可靠性试验检测中心，主要从事环境与可靠性、电磁兼容、性能测试、元器件筛选检测、微波组件测试 扬州 中国电子科技集中国电子科技集团第十研究所天团第十研究所天奥校准奥校准/检测实检测实验室验室 主要从事空天信息应用与服务、国家和公共安全大数据应用、时间频率、测试测控、校准检测技术服务 成都 中国电子科技集中国电子科技集团第二十七研究团第二十七研究所所 拥有计量检测中心，从事电子信息产品及系统的环境与可靠性试验,电磁兼容检测 郑州 请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明 23/33 思科瑞思科瑞/公司深度公司深度 4.4.技术、资质及客户共同造就军用电子元器件检测行业较高的壁垒 相比其他检测行业，军用电子元器件检测细分领域进入壁垒较高，竞争格局较好，相比其他检测行业，军用电子元器件检测细分领域进入壁垒较高，竞争格局较好，主要壁垒体现在技术、资质及客户壁垒三大方面，我们认为龙头企业凭借先发优势主要壁垒体现在技术、资质及客户壁垒三大方面，我们认为龙头企业凭借先发优势及行业内的深厚积累与品牌优势形成较高的护城河及行业内的深厚积累与品牌优势形成较高的护城河，实现份额提升，实现份额提升。（1）技术壁垒：）技术壁垒：电子元器件可靠性检测涉及电子元器件种类较多、工艺性能也不尽相同。检测机构需熟悉且具备微电子、材料、自动控制、质量与可靠性等相关技术的综合运用能力。同时需要研发相匹配的测试适配器和根据产品手册和测试标准编制测试技术方案，需要基于对电子元器件多维度分析的基础上自主研发、调试和验证测试程序。另外，检测技术水平的稳定性、一致性及工作效率也是技术难点之一，考验企业的技术标准化能力。新进入企业在短时间内难以获得足够的专业经验与技新进入企业在短时间内难以获得足够的专业经验与技术积累以支撑检测业务的运营，构成较强的进入壁垒术积累以支撑检测业务的运营，构成较强的进入壁垒。（2）资质壁垒：客户通常会要求企业具备一）资质壁垒：客户通常会要求企业具备一定的相关资质，如定的相关资质，如 CNAS 实验室认可实验室认可（国家实验室认可）和（国家实验室认可）和 DILAC 实验室认可（国防实验室认可）等。实验室认可（国防实验室认可）等。CNAS 和 DILAC实验室的申请和维持具有一定难度和技术门槛。申请人必须建立符合要求的管理体系并运行 6 个月以上，并有足够的检测/校准/鉴定经历。申请人还必须具有固定场地和专用设备，并有专业技术人员队伍。获取 CNAS 和 DILAC 认可需要经过复杂的评审程序节。此外，维持 CNAS 和 DILAC 认可也需要不断提供证明，否则将会被撤销。中国电子科技集中国电子科技集团第三十二研究团第三十二研究所所 拥有计算平台检测与试验实验室 上海 中国电子科技集中国电子科技集团第四十三研究团第四十三研究所所 拥有混合集成电路及电子元器件检测实验室，专注于混合集成电路等的可靠性检测 合肥 无锡微电子科研无锡微电子科研中心中心 从事电子元器件、集成电路方面的质量检验、可靠性测试、产品质量评价及失效分析等工作 无锡 南京奥马微波光南京奥马微波光电产品检测中心电产品检测中心有限公司有限公司 微波光电产品、仪器仪表检测、研发、生产、销售、技术服务、技术咨询 南京 西安应用光学研西安应用光学研究所究所 拥有可靠性与环境检测试验中心 西安 北方夜视科技研北方夜视科技研究院集团有限公究院集团有限公司司 拥有计量理化测试中心 昆明 西安兵标检测有西安兵标检测有限责任公司限责任公司 拥有元器件检测中心，从事电子元器件测试、筛选、破坏性物理分析、失效分析和可靠性保证等服务 西安 西安现代控制技西安现代控制技术研究所术研究所 设有机械控制总体、电气与检测等 西安 江苏北斗卫星应江苏北斗卫星应用产业研究院有用产业研究院有限公司限公司 从事北斗卫星应用产业研究、检测、位置运营服务等 南京 数据来源：思科瑞招股说明书，东北证券 请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明 24/33 思科瑞思科瑞/公司深度公司深度 表表 4：国家实验室认可与国防实验室认可国家实验室认可与国防实验室认可 项目项目 国家实验室认可（国家实验室认可（CNAS）国防实验室认可（国防实验室认可（DILAC）认可依据认可依据 ISO/IEC 17025:2018检测和校准实验室能力认可准则及相关应用说明 DILAC/ACO 1:2018检测和校准实验室能力认可准则 认可机构认可机构 中国合格评定国家认可委员会 国家国防科技工业局 使用范围使用范围 对各行业实验室的通用要求 国家军工类及校验实验室的特殊要求 评审方式评审方式 国家认可委员会对于实验室采取现场评审的方式 在评审中，主要采取与国家认可委实验室认可工作同步的评审方式，重点增加对于国防科技工业特殊要求内容的评审，减轻实验室负担，避免了重复评审，又充分体现了国防工业的特色。国家实验室认可与国防军用实验室认可可以同时进行，两个标准有些相同的部分，可以使用一套体系，同时向中国合格评定国家认可委员会和国防科技工委会提交申请资料。特点特点 自愿、非歧视性、专家评审 保密性、保障性、指令性 认可意义认可意义 提高实验室管理水平、提高实验室知名度、提高检测和校准服务的市场竞争力，与国际接轨，可实现与国际上的多边互认。增强在国防科技工业系统开展检测、校准工作的信任度和认可度。数据来源：中邦实验室，东北证券（3）客户壁垒：）客户壁垒：军用领域客户粘性军用领域客户粘性较较强，强，客户信赖是开展可靠性检测业务的重要前客户信赖是开展可靠性检测业务的重要前提，进入客户的供应商目录并获得订单需要较长时间的业务沉淀提，进入客户的供应商目录并获得订单需要较长时间的业务沉淀和和品牌积累过程品牌积累过程。由于二筛可以很好的把关产品质量，军用领域客户在选定可靠性检测机构时要求较严格，并对检测机构在保密性、服务质量和服务效率等方面都要求更高。军工行业军工行业客户选定一家合格的检测机构需要经历严格的筛选过程，更换服务提供方需面临较客户选定一家合格的检测机构需要经历严格的筛选过程，更换服务提供方需面临较大的质量控制风险并承担时间成本大的质量控制风险并承担时间成本，因此倾向于与检测机构形成长期、稳定的合作关系，不具有军用电子元器件可靠性检测业务经验的检测机构较难进入该领域。4.5.公司核心竞争力：技术领先，资质齐全、拥有优质客户资源 我们认为公司的核心优势体现在技术、资质和客户三方面。我们认为公司的核心优势体现在技术、资质和客户三方面。（1）技术优势：技术优势：公司具有较强的测试程序和检测适配器等软硬件的开发能力。公司具有较强的测试程序和检测适配器等软硬件的开发能力。测试测试程序和适配器制作是检测环节的关键壁垒之一，程序和适配器制作是检测环节的关键壁垒之一，2021 年末公司已拥有测试程序年末公司已拥有测试程序 2.3万多套，万多套，检测适配器检测适配器 1.3 万多套万多套，公司拥有专利，公司拥有专利 42 项，处在行业前列项，处在行业前列。测试适配器设计制作难度大，复杂器件的测试适配器基本相当于设计一个电子系统或设备。公司需要依据产品手册和测试标准编制测试技术方案，在对器件结构及其功能、性能参数分析的基础上，通过建立测试模型、智能仿真等方式，自主研发测试程序，并对测试程序和适配器进行反复调试与验证，以实现对器件功能性能指标正确性的检测。同时，公司亦具有承接国际、国内技术领先企业的高水平电子元器件的可靠性检测业务能力。（2）资质优势：公司具备）资质优势：公司具备 CNAS 和和 DILAC 实验室认可，拥有实验室认可，拥有 CNAS 和和 DILAC 认认可的检测项目共计可的检测项目共计 565 项，处在行业前列，与主要竞争对手的差距较小。项，处在行业前列，与主要竞争对手的差距较小。检测项目数量代表了公司在认可范围内能够提供检测服务的数量，反应公司的检测能力。截至 2021 年末，根据中国合格评定国家认可委员会（CNAS）公布的数据，公司拥有 CNAS 认可的检测项目共计 565 项，西安西谷拥有 CNAS 认可的检测项目共计 请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明 25/33 思科瑞思科瑞/公司深度公司深度 224 项，京瀚禹拥有 CNAS 认可的检测项目共计 617 项。从检测项目的角度看，公司处于前列，竞争能力强。表表 5：思科瑞、西安西谷和京瀚禹技术对比：思科瑞、西安西谷和京瀚禹技术对比 公司名称 检测项目数量 专利数 测试程序 测试种类 成都思科瑞微电子股份有限公司 565 42 23000 测试器件种类 26 种，电参数 151 种，试验项目种类 13 种 西安西谷微电子有限责任公司 224 24 66000 测试器件种类 20 种，电参数 141 种，试验项目种类 83 种 北京京瀚禹电子工程技术有限公司 617 16 40000 测试器件种类 40 种，电参数 311 种，试验项目种类 28 种。数据来源：思科瑞招股说明书，西测测试招股说明书，西安西谷官网，京瀚禹官网，东北证券（3）客户优势：）客户优势：如前文对行业壁垒的探讨，军工领域客户一般在选定可靠性检测机如前文对行业壁垒的探讨，军工领域客户一般在选定可靠性检测机构时要求较严格，并对检测机构在保密性、服务质量和服务效率等方面都要求更高，构时要求较严格，并对检测机构在保密性、服务质量和服务效率等方面都要求更高，一般不会轻易更换供应商。一般不会轻易更换供应商。公司具有优质公司具有优质丰富丰富的下游客户资源，拥有近的下游客户资源，拥有近 400 家军工家军工集团下属企业以及为军工企业配套的电子厂商等客户集团下属企业以及为军工企业配套的电子厂商等客户，与客户绑定程度深，与客户绑定程度深。公司客户包括航天科技集团、航天科工集团、航空工业集团、航发集团等，同时也为军工企业配套的电子厂商提供服务，如西安盈科电源、成都智明达等。公司管理层深耕行业多年，具备丰富的业内资源优势。同时，公司实验室布局成都、无锡、西安三地，所在的西南、华东、西北区域是我国军工装备研制生产重地成都，可迅速响应客户的需求，减少时间周期，便于市场开拓和客户关系维护。表表 6：2021 年公司前五大客户销售情况年公司前五大客户销售情况 客户名称客户名称 销售金额销售金额 销售金额占比销售金额占比 中国航空工业集团下属企业中国航空工业集团下属企业 5,815.33 26.19%中国航天科工集团下属企业中国航天科工集团下属企业 2,529.22 11.39%中国电子科技集团下属企业中国电子科技集团下属企业 2,199.14 9.90%西安盈科电源有限公司西安盈科电源有限公司 1,028.30 4.63%北京航空航天大学北京航空航天大学 862.44 3.88%数据来源：思科瑞招股说明书，东北证券 4.6.公司具备行业领先的盈利能力和经营能力 我们从毛利率净利率、我们从毛利率净利率、ROE、人均创收、投入产出比、资本开支及、人均创收、投入产出比、资本开支及 EBITDA 利润率利润率等多个维度等多个维度将将公司公司与与检测行业上市公司做横向比较。公司在各项指标均处于领先水检测行业上市公司做横向比较。公司在各项指标均处于领先水平，我们认为一是得益于公司所处军用电子元器件检测行业本身的特点，其需求较平，我们认为一是得益于公司所处军用电子元器件检测行业本身的特点，其需求较好，格局相对稳定，壁垒较高，二亦是公司经营能力和竞争优势的体现。好，格局相对稳定，壁垒较高，二亦是公司经营能力和竞争优势的体现。公司盈利能力强，公司盈利能力强，ROE 和毛利率较高，体现公司较强的竞争力。和毛利率较高，体现公司较强的竞争力。公司 2021 年毛利率为 74.64%，高于大部分可比公司，处在行业领先水平。主要是因为公司在军用电子元器件可靠性检测的细分领域，竞争格局较好，行业进入壁垒较高，而其他公司 请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明 26/33 思科瑞思科瑞/公司深度公司深度 如华测检测、苏试试验及广电计量等布局业务相对多元。图图 37：可比公司毛利率对比：可比公司毛利率对比 图图 38：可比公司：可比公司 ROE（加权）（加权）对比对比 数据来源：Wind，东北证券（注：京瀚禹 2019 年数据缺失;苏试试验毛利率选取环境可靠性试验服务业务；广电计量毛利率选取可靠性与环境试验业务）数据来源：Wind，东北证券 公司人均创收和创利稳步增长，处于行业领先水平。人力资本密集公司人均创收和创利稳步增长，处于行业领先水平。人力资本密集亦亦是检测行业的是检测行业的重要属性之一，人均创收和人均创利是衡量企业经营能力的重要指标之一。重要属性之一，人均创收和人均创利是衡量企业经营能力的重要指标之一。2021 年思科瑞人均创收约 60 万元，人均创利约 26 万元，位于行业前列。公司 2018 年-2021年公司在规模扩张的同时，保持人均创收和人均创利稳步增长，体现了公司较强的管理能力。图图 39：可比公司人均创收（单位：万元）：可比公司人均创收（单位：万元）图图 40：可比公司人均创利（单位：万元）：可比公司人均创利（单位：万元）数据来源：Wind，东北证券 数据来源：Wind，东北证券 公司公司 2021 年年投入产出比投入产出比为为 1.67，处于行业前列。资本密集也是行业的重要特征，处于行业前列。资本密集也是行业的重要特征，实验室扩张是企业成长的重要手段，固定资产增长往往是企业营收的领先指标，投实验室扩张是企业成长的重要手段，固定资产增长往往是企业营收的领先指标，投入产出比是衡量企业经营的重要指标之一。入产出比是衡量企业经营的重要指标之一。我们用全年营业收入与期初和期末平均固定资产原值的比值表示投入产出比。2021 年思科瑞，西测测试，华测检测，苏试试验，广电计量投入产出比分别为 1.67、1.50、1.51、1.33、1.18，公司投入产出比优异，处于行业领先。请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明 27/33 思科瑞思科瑞/公司深度公司深度 表表 7：2021 年可比公司的投入产出比（营业收入年可比公司的投入产出比（营业收入/固定资产原值（期初期末平均值）固定资产原值（期初期末平均值）2019 2020 2021 思科瑞思科瑞 1.52 1.72 1.67 西测测试西测测试 1.47 1.57 1.50 华测检测华测检测 1.49 1.42 1.51 苏试试验苏试试验 1.21 1.30 1.33 广电计量广电计量 1.45 1.22 1.18 数据来源：Wind，东北证券 资本支出来看，公司资本支出来看，公司 2021 年资本性支出占营收比重为年资本性支出占营收比重为 22.7%，处于行业较高水平，处于行业较高水平，表明公司处在扩张期，表明公司处在扩张期，2022 年 Q3 公司固定资产 在建工程，较 21 年末增加 4626.81万元。后续随着新增设备和实验室逐步成熟，支撑公司营业收入增长。EBITAD 利润率来看，公司利润率来看，公司 2021 年年 EBITDA 利润率达到利润率达到 60%，处于行业较高水，处于行业较高水平。平。图图 41：可比公司的资本性支出：可比公司的资本性支出/营业收入营业收入 图图 42：可比公司：可比公司 EBITDA 利润率利润率 数据来源：Wind，东北证券 数据来源：Wind，东北证券 5.募资扩产募资扩产，在手资金充足，在手资金充足，检测产能和品类双扩张检测产能和品类双扩张 如前文对检测行业如前文对检测行业商业商业模式的探讨所述，资本投入模式的探讨所述，资本投入往往往往是检测企业短期增长的是检测企业短期增长的重要重要驱动因素，存量实验室的收入和利润在产能利用率相对饱和的时候不会有太大增长，驱动因素，存量实验室的收入和利润在产能利用率相对饱和的时候不会有太大增长，需要有新增的实验产能（设备或者人工）才会带来新的增量。随着需要有新增的实验产能（设备或者人工）才会带来新的增量。随着新增新增实验室进入实验室进入产值提升期，承接检测业务的增多支撑产值提升期，承接检测业务的增多支撑企业企业进一步增长。进一步增长。因此当前核心关注点在于因此当前核心关注点在于公司实验室和设备扩张带来的检测产能和品类增加。公司实验室和设备扩张带来的检测产能和品类增加。公司电子元器件检测能力饱和，多项业务的产能利用率超公司电子元器件检测能力饱和，多项业务的产能利用率超 90%。2021 年公司主营业务中集成电路、分立器件、阻容感的产能分别为 475.71、475.18、2426.56 万个，产能利用率分别为 99.23%、90.68%、92.59%。现有实验室进入到成熟期，现有实验室进入到成熟期，产能瓶颈产能瓶颈成为制约公司发展的因素。成为制约公司发展的因素。请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明 28/33 思科瑞思科瑞/公司深度公司深度 表表 8：公司主营业务产量与产能（单位：万个）：公司主营业务产量与产能（单位：万个）检测产品种类检测产品种类 产量产量 产能产能 产能利用率产能利用率 20212021 年年 集成电路 475.71 479.40 99.23%分立器件 475.18 524.00 90.68%阻容感 2,426.56 2,620.80 92.59 202020 年年 集成电路 327.60 328.00 99.88%分立器件 428.42 440.00 97.37%阻容感 2,315.27 2,376.00 97.44 192019 年年 集成电路 173.08 218.40 79.25%分立器件 175.81 292.00 60.21%阻容感 985.31 1,113.60 88.48%数据来源：思科瑞招股说明书，东北证券 募资扩产，品类扩张，产能有望大幅提升。公司募资募资扩产，品类扩张，产能有望大幅提升。公司募资 13.88 亿元，超募亿元，超募 7.69 亿元亿元，充足的在手资金为后续扩张提供支持。充足的在手资金为后续扩张提供支持。公司募资主要用于建设成都检测试验基地、环境试验中心、无锡检测试验基地、研发中心以及补充流动资金，项目建设周期约2 年。公司公司一方面夯实一方面夯实聚焦军用电子元器件检测聚焦军用电子元器件检测基本盘，一方面向基本盘，一方面向环境试验及民营环境试验及民营集成电路领域集成电路领域扩展扩展，我们看好公司，我们看好公司在在检测产能和检测品类检测产能和检测品类双双扩张下的成长能力。扩张下的成长能力。（1）成都检测试验基地建设项目成都检测试验基地建设项目：将依托公司现有业务与技术的基础，提升军用电子元器件可靠性筛选及 DPA（破坏性物理分析）检测服务能力，并对相关可靠性检测技术进行升级。该基地将新增检测试验能力 28,269,000 只/年，以及 DPA 检测能力 13,500 批/年的服务规模。项目预计投资总额为 17,519.82 万元，其中设备购置费7138 万元。建设期为 2 年，投资回收期为 6.25 年，投资财务内部收益率为 20.64%。（2）环境试验中心建设项目环境试验中心建设项目：将提升军用电子产品或装备的环境试验检测服务能力。该项目将新增高低温湿热试验、加速度试验以及太阳辐射试验等十五项试验项目，可达到年检测 49,980 小时和 1,920 次的服务规模。预计投资总额为 6,804.39 万元，其中设备购置费 4027 万元。项建设期为 2 年，项目投资回收期为 6.19 年，投资财务内部收益率为 19.28%。（3）无锡检测试验基地建设项目无锡检测试验基地建设项目：将依托江苏七维现有业务与技术的基础，新建检测试验基地，提升军用电子元器件可靠性筛选以及晶圆测试检测服务能力，并对相关可靠性检测技术进行升级，预计该项目将达到 18,665,000 只/年的可靠性检测试验能力和 200,000 片/年的晶圆检测试验能力。预计投资总额为 16681.91 万元，其中设备购置费 14280 万元。项建设期为 2 年，项目投资回收期为 6.70 年，投资财务内部收益率为 16.63%。若募投项目顺利落地达产，公司产能较若募投项目顺利落地达产，公司产能较 2021 年将实现大幅增长。年将实现大幅增长。根据公司招股说明书披露，2021 年可靠性检测产量（集成电路、分立器件、阻容感及其他）约为 3446万只/年，募集资金新增可靠性检测产能 4693 万只/年，达产后合计约为 8139 万只/年，为 21 年产量的 2.36 倍。同时除了可靠性检测外，公司还将新增 DPA 检测能力13500 批/年，新增环境试验年检测 49,980 小时和 1,920 次的服务规模，新增晶圆检测 20 万片/年试验能力。除了募投项目外，除了募投项目外，公司充足的在手资金公司充足的在手资金也也为后续扩张提供为后续扩张提供支持支持。请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明 29/33 思科瑞思科瑞/公司深度公司深度 表表 9：募资建设基地项目情况：募资建设基地项目情况 项目项目 投资额投资额（万元）（万元）设备购置额设备购置额（万元）（万元）预期产能提升预期产能提升 建设期建设期（年）（年）投资回收期投资回收期（所得税后）（所得税后）（年）（年）成都检测试验基地成都检测试验基地建设项目建设项目 17519.82 7138.00 检测试验能力 28,269,000只/年，DPA检测能力13,500 批/年 2 6.25 环境试验中心建设环境试验中心建设项目项目 6804.39 4027.00 年 检 测 49,980小 时 和1,920 次的服务规模 2 6.19 无锡检测试验级建无锡检测试验级建设项目设项目 16681.91 14280.00 18,665,000 只/年的可靠性检测试验能力和200,000片/年的晶圆检测试验能力 2 6.70 数据来源：思科瑞招股说明书，东北证券 6.投资建议投资建议 我们认为公司作为军用电子元器件检测领域的领先企业，具备良好的投资价值，核心理由如下：（1）行业空间持续扩容。行业空间持续扩容。检测行业长坡厚雪增长稳定，军用电子元器件检测行业规模超百亿，竞争格局良好，进入壁垒较高，参与民营企业少，充分受益于国防信息化、武器装备智能化及国产化浪潮下催生的军用电子元器件的需求增长，同时伴随第三方检测市场的持续扩容以及一筛市场的释放，行业空间持续扩大。（2）公司核心竞争优势公司核心竞争优势显著，显著，技术领先，资质齐全技术领先，资质齐全，拥有优质拥有优质稳定的稳定的客户资源客户资源，实，实验室多点布局辐射军工装备生产重地。验室多点布局辐射军工装备生产重地。公司拥有经 CNAS 和 DILAC 认证的检测项目或参数共计 565 项，拥有自主研发的测试程序 2.3 万余套，检测适配器 1.3 万余套，具备全面的检测能力。公司覆盖客户广泛，包括航天科工、航空工业等近 400个军工客户。公司盈利能力强，展现出高毛利率、高净利率和高 ROE 特点，2021 年毛利率、净利率和 ROE 分别为 74.64%、43.71%、36.04%，人均创收创利、投入产出比居行业领先水平。（3）募资扩产募资扩产，检测产能和品类双增长，业绩确定性检测产能和品类双增长，业绩确定性高、成长性强高、成长性强。公司当前核心矛盾在于下游需求高景气同公司检测产能不足的矛盾，因此核心关注点在于公司因此核心关注点在于公司实实验室验室和设备和设备扩张带来的检测产能和检测品类扩张带来的检测产能和检测品类增加增加，是公司业绩增长的先行驱动。我们认为，当前公司在手资金充足，有力支撑资本开支，募投项目逐步落地有望持续增厚业绩。我们预计公司 2022-2024 年营业收入分别为 2.81/4.16/5.95 亿元，归母净利润分别为1.13/1.75/2.45 亿 元，同 比 增 长 16.84%/54.36%/40.19%，对 应 PE 分 别 为61.45/39.81/28.40X，首次覆盖给予买入评级。具体到各项业务：1）电子元器件测试与可靠性筛选：电子元器件测试与可靠性筛选：我们预计未来可靠性筛选业务是推动公司收入增长的核心因素。宏观层面国防开支稳健增长，中观层面国防信息化、武器装备智能化及国产化浪潮下催生的军工电子元器件的需求增长、第三方检测市场持续扩容以 请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明 30/33 思科瑞思科瑞/公司深度公司深度 及一筛市场逐步释放支撑行业体量增长，微观层面公司在手资金充足，检测产能扩张支撑公司可靠性筛选业务的高成长性，同时公司积极布局晶圆测试等民用市场，开拓环境试验业务，为公司带来新的增长点。预计 2022-2024 年可靠性筛选的营业收入增速 24.90%、50.29%、43.59%，保守预计毛利率随检测量的提升小幅下滑；2）破坏性物理分析（破坏性物理分析（DPA）：）：目前 DPA 占公司营收比重较小，近年营收增速较快。公司持续加大 DPA 开发力度，DPA 检测能力持续提升，成都检测试验基地建设项目有助于提升 DPA 检测能力，预计 2022-2024 年 DPA 业务营业收入增速为 70%、80%、100%，预计毛利率保持平稳；3）技术开发与）技术开发与其他服务其他服务：公司通过失效分析以及可靠性管理技术支持，可以为元器件的生产厂商在生产工艺、设计、材料、试验、使用等方面提供相应对策，为客户提供可靠性控制的系统解决方案以及质量可靠性管理技术支持，伴随行业整体增长需求有望持续增加。预计 2022-2024 年技术开发与支持业务营业收入增速为 30%、35%、30%，预计毛利率保持平稳。图图 43：收入拆分收入拆分 数据来源：Wind，东北证券 7.风险提示风险提示 产能扩张不及预期，需求下滑，业绩和估值判断不达预期。请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明 31/33 思科瑞思科瑞/公司深度公司深度 附表：财务报表预测摘要及指标附表：财务报表预测摘要及指标 资产负债表（百万元）资产负债表（百万元）2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 现金流量表（百万元）现金流量表（百万元）2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 货币资金 49 1,315 1,057 1,182 净利润净利润 97 113 175 245 交易性金融资产 0 0 0 0 资产减值准备 4 3 3 3 应收款项 196 223 349 388 折旧及摊销 20 12 28 21 存货 6 10 13 21 公允价值变动损失 0 0 0 0 其他流动资产 6 7 7 10 财务费用 2 2 2 3 流动资产合计流动资产合计 256 1,554 1,426 1,600 投资损失 0 0 0 0 可供出售金融资产 运营资本变动-64 10-132 45 长期投资净额 0 0 0 0 其他 0 0 0 0 固定资产 121 192 392 536 经营活动经营活动净净现金流现金流量量 58 141 76 317 无形资产 7 10 15 19 投资活动投资活动净净现金流现金流量量-50-131-338-195 商誉 3 3 3 3 融资活动融资活动净净现金流现金流量量 3 1,256 4 3 非非流动资产合计流动资产合计 153 272 582 756 企业自由现金流企业自由现金流 21 13-264 120 资产总计资产总计 409 1,826 2,008 2,356 短期借款 27 33 39 45 应付款项 16 50 33 103 财务与估值指标财务与估值指标 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 预收款项 0 0 0 0 每股指标每股指标 一年内到期的非流动负债 4 4 4 4 每股收益（元）1.29 1.13 1.75 2.45 流动负债合计流动负债合计 83 134 142 244 每股净资产（元）4.24 16.84 18.59 21.04 长期借款 0 0 0 0 每股经营性现金流量（元）0.78 1.41 0.76 3.17 其他长期负债 8 8 8 8 成长性指标成长性指标 长期负债合计长期负债合计 8 8 8 8 营业收入增长率 34.1&.5H.2B.9%负债合计负债合计 91 142 149 252 净利润增长率 28.6.8T.4.2%归属于母公司股东权益合计 318 1,684 1,859 2,104 盈利能力指标盈利能力指标 少数股东权益 0 0 0 0 毛利率 74.6q.3p.4i.4%负债和股东权益总计负债和股东权益总计 409 1,826 2,008 2,356 净利润率 43.7.4B.1A.3%运营效率指标运营效率指标 利润表（百万元）利润表（百万元）2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 应收账款周转天数 174.76 180.00 160.00 140.00 营业收入营业收入 222 281 416 595 存货周转天数 39.89 35.00 33.00 33.00 营业成本 56 81 123 182 偿债能力指标偿债能力指标 营业税金及附加 1 1 1 2 资产负债率 22.3%7.8%7.4.7%资产减值损失 0 0 0 0 流动比率 3.07 11.56 10.07 6.55 销售费用 15 16 24 34 速动比率 2.94 11.45 9.94 6.44 管理费用 21 27 39 54 费用率指标费用率指标 财务费用 2 0-6-4 销售费用率 6.6%5.8%5.8%5.7%公允价值变动净收益 0 0 0 0 管理费用率 9.5%9.6%9.3%9.1%投资净收益 0 0 0 0 财务费用率 0.9%-0.1%-1.5%-0.7%营业利润营业利润 111 132 204 287 分红指标分红指标 营业外收支净额 2 0 0 0 股息收益率 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%利润总额利润总额 113 132 204 287 估值指标估值指标 所得税 16 19 29 41 P/E（倍）0.00 61.45 39.81 28.40 净利润 97 113 175 245 P/B（倍）0.00 4.14 3.75 3.31 归属于母公司净归属于母公司净利润利润 97 113 175 245 P/S（倍）0.00 24.81 16.74 11.72 少数股东损益 0 0 0 0 净资产收益率 36.0%6.7%9.4.7%资料来源：东北证券 请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明 32/33 思科瑞思科瑞/公司深度公司深度 研究团队研究团队简介：简介：Table_Introduction 王凤华：东北证券绝对收益首席分析师、国防军工行业首席分析师。中国人民大学硕士研究生，证券行业从业 25 年，2019 年加入东北证券。曾任民生证券研究所所长助理、宏源证券中小盘首席分析师、申万宏源证券研究所中小盘研究部总监、联讯证券研究院执行院长。2012 年至 2014 年连续三年带领团队上榜新财富最佳中小市值分析师，20162017 年带领联讯研究院获得新财富最具潜力研究机构奖项。多次获得水晶球、Wind 资讯金牌分析师、今日投资天眼分析师、金融界最佳分析师等多项奖项，深入调研过 500 上市公司。重要重要声明声明 本报告由东北证券股份有限公司（以下称“本公司”）制作并仅向本公司客户发布，本公司不会因任何机构或个人接收到本报告而视其为本公司的当然客户。本公司具有中国证监会核准的证券投资咨询业务资格。本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，本公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和意见仅反映本公司于发布本报告当日的判断，不保证所包含的内容和意见不发生变化。本报告仅供参考，并不构成对所述证券买卖的出价或征价。在任何情况下，本报告中的信息或所表述的意见均不构成对任何人的证券买卖建议。本公司及其雇员不承诺投资者一定获利，不与投资者分享投资收益，在任何情况下，我公司及其雇员对任何人使用本报告及其内容所引发的任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本公司或其关联机构可能会持有本报告中涉及到的公司所发行的证券头寸并进行交易，并在法律许可的情况下不进行披露；可能为这些公司提供或争取提供投资银行业务、财务顾问等相关服务。本报告版权归本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制、发表或引用。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，须在本公司允许的范围内使用，并注明本报告的发布人和发布日期，提示使用本报告的风险。若本公司客户（以下称“该客户”）向第三方发送本报告，则由该客户独自为此发送行为负责。提醒通过此途径获得本报告的投资者注意，本公司不对通过此种途径获得本报告所引起的任何损失承担任何责任。分析师声明分析师声明 作者具有中国证券业协会授予的证券投资咨询执业资格，并在中国证券业协会注册登记为证券分析师。本报告遵循合规、客观、专业、审慎的制作原则，所采用数据、资料的来源合法合规，文字阐述反映了作者的真实观点，报告结论未受任何第三方的授意或影响，特此声明。投资投资评级说明评级说明 股票 投资 评级 说明 买入 未来 6 个月内，股价涨幅超越市场基准 15%以上。投资评级中所涉及的市场基准：A 股市场以沪深 300 指数为市场基准，新三板市场以三板成指（针对协议转让标的）或三板做市指数（针对做市转让标的）为市场基准；香港市场以摩根士丹利中国指数为市场基准；美国市场以纳斯达克综合指数或标普 500 指数为市场基准。增持 未来 6 个月内，股价涨幅超越市场基准 5%至 15%之间。中性 未来 6 个月内，股价涨幅介于市场基准-5%至 5%之间。减持 未来 6 个月内，股价涨幅落后市场基准 5%至 15%之间。卖出 未来 6 个月内，股价涨幅落后市场基准 15%以上。行业 投资 评级 说明 优于大势 未来 6 个月内，行业指数的收益超越市场基准。同步大势 未来 6 个月内，行业指数的收益与市场基准持平。落后大势 未来 6 个月内，行业指数的收益落后于市场基准。请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明 33/33 思科瑞思科瑞/公司深度公司深度 Table_SalesTable_Sales 东北证券股份有限公司东北证券股份有限公司 网址：网址：http:/http:/电话：电话：400400-600600-06860686 地址地址 邮编邮编 中国吉林省长春市生态大街 6666 号 130119 中国北京市西城区锦什坊街 28 号恒奥中心 D 座 100033 中国上海市浦东新区杨高南路 799 号 200127 中国深圳市福田区福中三路 1006 号诺德中心 34D 518038 中国广东省广州市天河区冼村街道黄埔大道西 122 号之二星辉中心 15 楼 510630 机构销售联系方式机构销售联系方式 姓名姓名 办公电话办公电话 手机手机 邮箱邮箱 公募销售公募销售 华东地区机构销售华东地区机构销售 王一（副总监）021-61001802 13761867866 吴肖寅 021-61001803 17717370432 李瑞暄 021-61001802 18801903156 周嘉茜 021-61001827 18516728369 陈梓佳 021-61001887 19512360962 chen_ 屠诚 021-61001986 13120615210 康杭 021-61001986 18815275517 丁园 021-61001986 19514638854 吴一凡 021-20361258 19821564226 王若舟 021-61002073 17720152425 华北地区机构销售华北地区机构销售 李航（总监）010-58034553 18515018255 殷璐璐 010-58034557 18501954588 曾彦戈 010-58034563 18501944669 吕奕伟 010-58034553 15533699982 孙伟豪 010-58034553 18811582591 陈思 010-58034553 18388039903 chen_ 徐鹏程 010-58034553 18210496816 曲浩蕴 010-58034555 18810920858 华南地区机构销售华南地区机构销售 刘璇（总监）0755-33975865 13760273833 liu_ 刘曼 0755-33975865 15989508876 王泉 0755-33975865 18516772531 王谷雨 0755-33975865 13641400353 张瀚波 0755-33975865 15906062728 zhang_ 王熙然 0755-33975865 13266512936 wangxr_ 阳晶晶 0755-33975865 18565707197 yang_ 张楠淇 0755-33975865 13823218716 钟云柯 0755-33975865 13923804000 杨婧 010-63210892 18817867663 梁家潆 0755-33975865 13242061327 非公募销售非公募销售 华东地区机构销售华东地区机构销售 李茵茵（总监）021-61002151 18616369028 杜嘉琛 021-61002136 15618139803 王天鸽 021-61002152 19512216027 王家豪 021-61002135 18258963370 白梅柯 021-20361229 18717982570 刘刚 021-61002151 18817570273 曹李阳 021-61002151 13506279099 曲林峰 021-61002151 18717828970 华北地区机构销售华北地区机构销售 温中朝（副总监）010-58034555 13701194494 王动 010-58034555 18514201710 wang_ 闫琳 010-58034555 17862705380 张煜苑 010-58034553 13701150680

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湖南豫能-公司研究报告-国内最大的磷酸铁锂正极材料生产商-230209(13页).pdf

请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容证券研究报告证券研究报告|20232023年年0202月月0909日日湖南裕能（湖南裕能（301358.SZ301358.SZ）国内最大磷酸铁锂正极材料生产商国内最大磷酸铁锂正极材料生产商核心观点核心观点公司研究公司研究新股研究新股研究证券分析师：黄盈证券分析师：黄盈证券分析师：姜明证券分析师：姜明021-60893313021-S0980521010003S0980521010004基础数据发行前股本56793.99 万股发行股本18931.32 万股发行后股本75725.31 万股公司第一大股东湘潭电化集团有限公司第一大股东持股比例10.11%注:数据更新日期为 2023 年 02 月 08 日市场走势资料来源：Wind、国信证券经济研究所整理公司主要从事磷酸铁锂公司主要从事磷酸铁锂、三元正极材料生产三元正极材料生产，磷酸铁锂出货量全国第一磷酸铁锂出货量全国第一。公司的股权结构分散，无控股股东和实际控制人，第一大股东电化集团持股 13.48%。目前主要从事磷酸铁锂、三元材料的研发、生产及销售，用于锂电池制备，广泛应用于新能源汽车、储能等下游领域。2021 年公司在国内磷酸铁锂正极材料领域市占率 25%，出货量排名第一。横向比较国内其他主要磷酸铁锂生产企业，公司产品性能处于行业领先位置。匹配需求的产能扩张，带动公司业绩快速增长。匹配需求的产能扩张，带动公司业绩快速增长。公司几乎全部收入均来自磷酸铁锂，2019 至 1H22 分别实现收入 5.84/9.56/70.7/140.9 亿元，收入的高增长主要由产量增长与原材料价格大涨所致，截至 2022 年 6 月30 日，公司已建成产线设计年产能合计为 34.3 万吨，产能利用率与产销率均维持高位。实现归母净利润 0.55/0.39/11.84/16.33 亿元。毛利率在 20%上下波动，随着产销规模的扩大，公司盈利能力持续提升，净利率与毛利率之差已缩小至 7%。头部电池厂入股，保障公司部分原材料供应与订单。头部电池厂入股，保障公司部分原材料供应与订单。公司采用直销模式，与下游客户合作稳定，已成为宁德时代、比亚迪、亿纬锂能、蜂巢能源、远景动力、赣锋锂电、瑞浦能源、宁德新能源、南都电源、中兴派能、鹏辉能源等众多知名锂电池企业的供应商。2020 年 12 月，公司增资扩股并引入了主要客户宁德时代、比亚迪作为战略投资者入股，分别持有公司上市前 10.54%、5.27%股份。此后，公司与宁德时代、比亚迪等部分客户签署了产能合作协议，约定了未来三年对公司的保底采购量及公司对客户的供货能力保证。同时，公司也从宁德时代、比亚迪等关联方处采购原材料。磷酸铁锂需求保持高增长，公司规划产能并无过剩磷酸铁锂需求保持高增长，公司规划产能并无过剩。磷酸铁锂电池具有安全性高、循环寿命长的优势，成本低于三元锂，作为新能源汽车动力电池与储能电池具有优势。2021 年国内磷酸铁锂电池装车量超过三元锂电池，2019-2021 年中国储能锂电池出货量中磷酸铁锂电池占比持续在 92%以上，三元电池等占比较低。公司主要客户 2021 年以来新能源电池产能扩张计划合计超过 1654GWh，根据下游动力/储能电池出货量占比、磷酸铁锂电池装车量、储能用量等数据计算，2025 年磷酸铁锂正极材料需求约 244 万吨。公司在行业内市场份额约 25%，预计能拿到的订单量约61 万吨。根据公司目前的产能规划，2025 年将建成产能 75.1 万吨，全部建成后产能达 89.3 万吨，能够覆盖需求。可比公司情况可比公司情况：公司主要从事磷酸铁锂与三元正极材料生产制造。国内锂电池正极材料生产商较多，综合考虑产品结构以及行业地位后，选择德方纳米、万润新能、当升科技、容百科技为可比公司。风险提示：风险提示：原材料价格波动风险，新建产能消化风险，正极材料优化等行业主要技术路线发生重大变化的风险，应收账款回款风险；产业支持政策变化风险；内控上，无实控人风险。请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容证券研究报告证券研究报告2内容目录内容目录公司概况公司概况.4 4股东结构.4湖南裕能：国内最大磷酸铁锂正极材料生产商.4公司公司经营表现经营表现：.5 5聚焦磷酸铁锂业务，公司业绩实现快速增长.5头部电池厂入股，保障公司部分原材料供应与订单.7行业简析行业简析.7 7磷酸铁锂需求保持高增长，公司规划产能并无过剩.7募投项目募投项目.1010可比公司情况可比公司情况.1010风险提示风险提示.1010hZlYtVpZkU8ZfYaXvY9YaQ9RbRoMqQtRpMlOnNpNeRmNpP7NrRzQNZmMxPMYnRwP请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容证券研究报告证券研究报告3图表图表目录目录图1：湖南裕能近期营收利润表现（百万元，左轴）与增速（右轴）.5图2：湖南裕能近期销售毛利率、归母净利率、摊薄 ROE 水平.5图3：湖南裕能主营业务收入按项目拆分（亿元）.6图4：湖南裕能磷酸铁锂产能、产量、产销率情况（万吨）.6图5：2021 年国内主要磷酸铁锂厂商销售情况.6图6：德方纳米与公司磷酸铁锂产品毛利率比较.6图7：中国新能源乘用车动力电池装车量（GWh）.8图8：2017-1H22 我国储能锂离子出货量(GWh).8图9：2020-2025 年中国磷酸铁锂材料产能及出货量（单位：万吨/年）.9表1：2021 年中国主要磷酸铁锂生产商产销量（吨）与市占率情况.4表2：公司主要产品品类与相关信息.4表3：主要磷酸铁锂厂商的产品参数比较.5表4：公司碳酸锂采购均价情况（万元/吨）.6表5：公司从经常性关联方采购物料与占期内采购原材料的价值比重（万元）.7表6：1H22 公司主要客户（按合并后口径）.7表7：市场中相对主流的锂离子电池特征.8表8：公司主要客户扩产计划.9表9：湖南裕能募投项目.10表10：可比公司财务数据与估值表现（亿元，截至 2023 年 2 月 8 日收盘数据）.10请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容证券研究报告证券研究报告4公司概况公司概况股东结构股东结构公司的股权结构分散，无控股股东和实际控制人，第一大股东电化集团持股13.48%。2020 年 12 月，公司增资扩股并引入了主要客户宁德时代、比亚迪作为战略投资者入股，分别持有公司上市前 10.54%、5.27%股份。湖南裕能：国内最大磷酸铁锂正极材料生产商湖南裕能：国内最大磷酸铁锂正极材料生产商公司主要从事磷酸铁锂、三元材料的研发、生产及销售，用于锂电池制备，广泛应用于新能源汽车、储能等下游领域。2020、2021 年公司在国内磷酸铁锂正极材料领域市占率 25%，磷酸铁锂出货量排名第一。1H22 公司已建成产线设计年产能合计为 34.3 万吨，新增产能将在 2022-2025 年逐步释放，全部建成后公司磷酸铁锂总设计年产能将达 89.3 万吨。表1：2021 年中国主要磷酸铁锂生产商产销量（吨）与市占率情况排名排名公司名公司名磷酸铁锂产量磷酸铁锂产量磷酸铁锂销量磷酸铁锂销量磷酸铁锂正极材料领域市占率磷酸铁锂正极材料领域市占率1 1湖南裕能123973.78121327.2625%2 2德方纳米98297.0091225.9420.21%3 3贝特瑞（龙蟠科技）31121.0030505.108.67%4 4湖北万润39720.1840035.678.54%资料来源:公司招股意向书，国信证券经济研究所整理表2：公司主要产品品类与相关信息产品类型产品类型技术指标技术指标主要应用领域主要应用领域产品电镜图产品电镜图高能量型磷酸铁锂高能量型磷酸铁锂比容量156mAh/g；压实密度 2.45-2.65g/cm新能源汽车储能型磷酸铁锂储能型磷酸铁锂比容量156mAh/g；压实密度 2.25-2.55g/cm3储能多晶三元材料多晶三元材料比容量167mAh/g数码电池、充电宝等单晶三元材料单晶三元材料比容量179mAh/g新能源汽车等资料来源:公司招股意向书，国信证券经济研究所整理横向比较国内其他主要磷酸铁锂生产企业，公司产品性能整体处于行业领先位置。请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容证券研究报告证券研究报告5表3：主要磷酸铁锂厂商的产品参数比较客户名称客户名称产品型号产品型号压实密度（压实密度（g/cmg/cm）比容量（比容量（mAh/gmAh/g）循环寿命（次）循环寿命（次）湖南裕能湖南裕能YN（5/6/7）2.45-2.65156CN（3/4/5）2.25-2.41561000（容量保持率 90%以上）万润新能万润新能A8-42.201586000（容量保持率 80%以上）A8-4C2.351554000（容量保持率 80%以上）A8-4E2.401563500（容量保持率 80%以上）A8-4F22.401573500（容量保持率 80%以上）A8-4G2.51543000（容量保持率 80%以上）德方纳米德方纳米DY-12.2-2.41506000（容量保持率 80%以上）DY-32.35-2.401505000（容量保持率 80%以上）DF-52.45-2.501545000（容量保持率 80%以上）龙蟠科技龙蟠科技（常州锂源（常州锂源）P198-S132.3154P198-S202.38154P198-S272.5154P198-S302.25157T2（铁锂一号）2.05156资料来源:湖南裕能、万润新能招股意向书，德方纳米、常州锂源官网，国信证券经济研究所整理公司公司经营表现经营表现：聚焦磷酸铁锂业务，公司业绩实现快速增长聚焦磷酸铁锂业务，公司业绩实现快速增长公司 2019 至 1H22 分别实现收入 5.84/9.56/70.7/140.9 亿元，18 至 21 年复合增速 252%，1H22 同比增长 875%；实现归母净利润 0.55/0.39/11.84/16.33 亿元，复合增速 366%，1H22 同比增长 682.5%。毛利率在 20%上下波动，随着产销规模的扩大，公司盈利能力持续提升，净利率与毛利率之差已缩小至 7%。图1：湖南裕能近期营收利润表现（百万元，左轴）与增速（右轴）图2：湖南裕能近期销售毛利率、归母净利率、摊薄 ROE 水平资料来源：公司招股意向书，国信证券经济研究所整理资料来源：公司招股意向书，国信证券经济研究所整理公司几乎全部收入均来自磷酸铁锂，收入的高增长主要由产销量增长与原材料价格大涨所致。2019 年公司产能仅 1.42 万吨，截至 1H22 已快速攀升至 34 万吨，从产销量角度看，公司产能较为紧张。无水磷酸铁、碳酸锂与磷酸为生产磷酸铁锂的主要原材料。2020 年 99.5%电池级碳酸锂均价低至 4.7 万元/吨，2022 年初价格已达 30 万元/吨，2 月突破 50 万元/吨。受此影响，公司的磷酸铁锂销售单价由 2020 年的 2.96 万元/吨涨至 22 年上半年的 12.29 万元/吨。请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容证券研究报告证券研究报告6图3：湖南裕能主营业务收入按项目拆分（亿元）图4：湖南裕能磷酸铁锂产能、产量、产销率情况（万吨）资料来源：公司招股意向书，国信证券经济研究所整理资料来源：公司招股意向书，国信证券经济研究所整理从毛利率上看，21 年公司略低于同行水平，或因年内碳酸锂采购均价偏高所致。1H22 公司毛利率低于德方纳米，主要因 21 年末德方纳米存货中原材料（主要为碳酸锂）金额较高，同时 22 年较 21 年碳酸锂市场价格上涨带来的库存收益所致。表4：公司碳酸锂采购均价情况（万元/吨）类型类型项目项目20212021 年度年度20202020 年度年度20192019 年度年度磷酸铁锂厂商磷酸铁锂厂商德方纳米碳酸锂采购均价6.20（为 1-9 月数据）3.285.55万润新能碳酸锂采购均价10.053.155.22碳酸锂供应商碳酸锂供应商永兴材料碳酸锂销售均价10.893.29未披露江特电机碳酸锂销售均价10.793.354.26第三方数据第三方数据上海有色网电池级碳酸锂平均报价10.743.896.06高工锂电碳酸锂平均价格10.464.306.10上海有色网工业级碳酸锂均价10.213.325.24本公司本公司碳酸锂采购均价碳酸锂采购均价11.1611.163.293.295.435.43资料来源:关于湖南裕能新能源电池材料股份有限公司首次公开发行股票并在创业板上市申请文件的第二轮审核问询函的回复（2022/3/31），国信证券经济研究所整理图5：2021 年国内主要磷酸铁锂厂商销售情况图6：德方纳米与公司磷酸铁锂产品毛利率比较资料来源：公司招股意向书，国信证券经济研究所整理资料来源：公司招股意向书，国信证券经济研究所整理请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容证券研究报告证券研究报告7头部电池厂入股，保障公司部分原材料供应与订单头部电池厂入股，保障公司部分原材料供应与订单公司采用直销模式，与下游客户合作稳定，已成为宁德时代、比亚迪、亿纬锂能、蜂巢能源、远景动力、赣锋锂电、瑞浦能源、宁德新能源、南都电源、中兴派能、鹏辉能源等众多知名锂电池企业的供应商。由于锂电池行业 CR5 达 88%，且公司引入宁德时代、比亚迪为公司股东加深合作，因此前五大客户十分集中。2020 年 12 月，公司增资扩股并引入了主要客户宁德时代、比亚迪作为战略投资者入股，分别持有公司上市前 10.54%、5.27%股份。公司与宁德时代、比亚迪等部分客户签署了产能合作协议，约定了未来三年对公司的保底采购量及公司对客户的供货能力保证。同时，公司也从宁德时代、比亚迪等关联方处采购原材料。2021 年公司向宁德时代、湖南邦普采购了 24975 万元碳酸锂，采购均价 10 万元/吨，同期碳酸锂(99.2%工业零级/国产)市场价格平均为 10.14 万元/吨。1H22 公司向宁德时代、湖南邦普、宁波邦普、比亚迪汽车以及贵阳弗迪采购的碳酸锂价格较市场均价低 3.34%。表5：公司从经常性关联方采购物料与占期内采购原材料的价值比重（万元）磷酸铁磷酸铁20222022 年年 1-61-6 月月20212021 年度年度20202020 年度年度20192019 年度年度广西裕宁、四川裕宁、湘潭电化新能25472.00（31.16%）13035.37（29.07%）电化集团1555.18（3.47%）宁德时代、宁波邦普、湖南邦普197864.82（17.28%）24975.00（4.80%）比亚迪汽车、贵阳弗迪183139.16（16.00%）三元前驱体三元前驱体宁德时代、宁波邦普、湖南邦普1514.80（0.13%）6698.45（1.29%）14.77（0.02%）电化厚浦9.49（0.01%）合计（占比）合计（占比）382518.78382518.78（33.413.41%）31673.4631673.46（6.08%6.08%）25496.2625496.26（31.191.19%）14590.5514590.55（32.532.53%）资料来源:关于湖南裕能新能源电池材料股份有限公司首次公开发行股票并在创业板上市申请文件的第二轮审核问询函的回复（2022/3/31），国信证券经济研究所整理表6：1H22 公司主要客户（按合并后口径）序号序号客户名客户名金额（万元）金额（万元）占比占比1 1宁德时代626542.8644.46%2 2比亚迪（深圳）559618.0739.72%3 3亿纬锂能100947.717.16%4 4中创新航1107.641.95%5 5青山控股（兰钧新能源）27166.191.93%合计合计1341822.241341822.2495.23.23%资料来源:公司招股意向书，国信证券经济研究所整理行业简析行业简析磷酸铁锂需求保持高增长，公司规划产能并无过剩磷酸铁锂需求保持高增长，公司规划产能并无过剩公司的核心产品磷酸铁锂与三元材料与属于正极材料，用于涂敷在铝箔上作为锂离子电池正极。磷酸铁锂（LiFePO4）是一种具有三维空间网状橄榄石结构的无机请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容证券研究报告证券研究报告8化合物，在充电过程中，LiFePO4 逐渐脱离出锂离子，锂离子在电场力的作用下，依次经过电解液、穿过聚合物隔膜，最后嵌入负极石墨晶格中。目前负极材料放电容量基本达到 350mAh/g 以上，高于各类正极材料，因此正极材料的比容量决定了整个电池的能量密度。正极材料目前相对主流的锂离子电池包括锰酸锂电池、磷酸铁锂电池、三元（镍钴锰酸锂）电池。锰酸锂电池成本较低，但比容量及循环寿命均明显不及磷酸铁锂及三元电池，综合来看更适合用于单体价值较低的产品。实践中，锰酸锂电池主要用于电动自行车、数码电子产品等领域。新能源车与储能对电池的安全性、比容量与循环寿命要求较高，因此主流方案采用磷酸铁锂与三元电池。表7：市场中相对主流的锂离子电池特征指标指标锰酸锂电池锰酸锂电池磷酸铁锂电池磷酸铁锂电池三元锂电池三元锂电池材料结构材料结构尖晶石结构橄榄石结构层状氧化物比容量（比容量（mAh/gmAh/g）100-120130-150150-220循环寿命（次）循环寿命（次）50020001000热稳定性热稳定性优秀优秀中（镍钴锰酸锂相对较好，镍钴铝酸锂相对较差）安全性安全性较好优秀较好成本成本低低中主要优点主要优点锰资源丰富，价格较低高安全性高安全性循环寿命长高能量密度主要缺点主要缺点能量密度低低温性能较差因使用钴元素，成本较高主要应用领域主要应用领域电动自行车、低端电动车、数码电子产品新能源汽车、储能新能源汽车资料来源:关于湖南裕能新能源电池材料股份有限公司首次公开发行股票并在创业板上市申请文件的第二轮审核问询函的回复（2022/3/31），国信证券经济研究所整理2021 年起我国新能源汽车动力电池装车量开始显著提升，主要因新能源车年内产销量快速增长所致。由于补贴退坡，动力电池追求降低降本，CTP、刀片电池等结构优化技术应运而生，2021 年起磷酸铁锂电池装车量超过三元电池。相比动力电池，储能电池更关注安全性和经济性，更多考虑电池成本、循环性能、全生命周期成本等因素。根据高工锂电统计数据，2019-20212019-2021 年中国储能锂电池出货量中年中国储能锂电池出货量中磷酸铁锂电池占比持续在磷酸铁锂电池占比持续在 92%以上，三元电池等占比较低以上，三元电池等占比较低。图7：中国新能源乘用车动力电池装车量（GWh）图8：2017-1H22 我国储能锂离子出货量(GWh)资料来源：高工锂电，国信证券经济研究所整理资料来源：高工锂电，国信证券经济研究所整理供给侧，据高工产研锂电研究所（GGII）通过公开数据统计显示，2021 年中国主要磷酸铁锂材料企业公布的总产能达 95 万吨/年，考虑到产能释放时间、产能爬坡的节奏、产线的稼动率、产品的良率等因素，2021 年行业实际释放的有效产能请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容证券研究报告证券研究报告9仅 49 万吨，行业内企业基本处于满产满销状态。到 2022 年底行业规划产能将达到 302 万吨，预计实际投放的有效产能在 95 万吨。到 2025 年实际能够释放的产能预计在 365 万吨。图9：2020-2025 年中国磷酸铁锂材料产能及出货量（单位：万吨/年）资料来源：GGII，国信证券经济研究所整理2021 年国内磷酸铁锂正极材料出货量 48 万吨，同期磷酸铁锂电池产量、销量、装机量分别为 219.7GWh、186GWh、154.5GWh。1H22 我国磷酸铁锂正极材料厂商出货量 44.5 万吨，同期磷酸铁锂电池产量、销量、装机量分别为 206.4 GWh、205.4GWh、110.1GWh。可见以目前的技术路线以目前的技术路线，生产生产 1GWh1GWh 磷酸铁锂电池需耗用磷酸铁锂电池需耗用约约0.220.22 万吨磷酸铁锂正极材料万吨磷酸铁锂正极材料。需求侧，根据 GGII 预计，2025 年全球动力电池出货量 1550GWh，储能电池出货量416GWh。按此结构计算，假设公司主要客户 2021 年以来新能源电池产能扩张计划中动力电池和储能电池的比例分别为 79%与 21%。公司主要客户 2021 年以来新能源电池产能扩张计划合计超过 1654GWh。表8：公司主要客户扩产计划客户名称客户名称扩产计划（扩产计划（GWhGWh）具体情况具体情况宁德时代宁德时代300宁德时代 2021 年公告的新建电池产能项目投资额合计达 920 亿元，按 3 亿元/GWh 的投资强度测算，新增产能超过 300GWh比亚迪比亚迪1802021 年以来扩产信息合计超过 180GWh亿纬锂能亿纬锂能2782021 年以来公告的新建电池产能项目合计超过 278GWh蜂巢能源蜂巢能源2402021 年以来扩产信息合计超过 240GWh远景动力远景动力862021 年以来扩产信息合计超过 86GWh中创新航中创新航2852021 年以来扩产信息合计超过 285GWh瑞浦能源瑞浦能源1702021 年以来扩产信息合计超过 170GWh赣锋锂电赣锋锂电152021 年以来公告的新建电池产能项目合计超过 15GWh欣旺达欣旺达802021 年以来公告的新建电池产能项目合计超过 80GWh鹏辉能源鹏辉能源202021 年以来公告的新建电池产能项目合计超过 20GWh合计合计16541654资料来源:关于湖南裕能新能源电池材料股份有限公司首次公开发行股票并在创业板上市申请文件的第二轮审核问询函的回复（2022/3/31），国信证券经济研究所整理22 年 1-11 月中国新能源汽车动力电池装车中，有约 61.4%为磷酸铁锂电池。据中国化学与物理电源行业协会储能应用分会出品的 2022 储能产业应用研究报告，21 年全球电化学储能装机规模 21.1GW。其中锂电池储能技术装机规模 19.85GW，请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容证券研究报告证券研究报告10功率规模占比 93.9%。由此测算得出，2025 年主要客户扩产计划带来的磷酸铁锂正极材料需求约 244 万吨。公司在行业内市场份额约 25%，预计能拿到的订单量约 61 万吨。根据公司目前的产能规划，2025 年将建成产能 75.1 万吨，全部建成后产能达 89.3 万吨，能够覆盖需求。募投项目募投项目本次 IPO，公司计划募集资金 22.23 亿元，投入 2 个建设项目。两项目实施主体为子公司四川裕能，建设地点为四川遂宁安居经济开发区安东大道锂电产业园。项目建设内容主要包括：（1）新建磷酸铁锂生产车间、仓库及附属设施；（2）购置并安装磷酸铁锂生产设备；（3）招募一批技术熟练度较高的生产作业人员。两期共新增 12 万吨磷酸铁锂产能，缓解产能不足。表9：湖南裕能募投项目序号序号项目名称项目名称总投资金额（万元）总投资金额（万元）拟投入募集资金（万元拟投入募集资金（万元）项目建设周期项目建设周期1 1四川裕能三期年产 6 万吨磷酸铁锂项目84786600002 年2 2四川裕能四期年产 6 万吨磷酸铁锂项目87558700002 年3 3补充流动资金5000050000-合计合计222344222344180000180000-资料来源:公司招股意向书，国信证券经济研究所整理可比公司情况可比公司情况公司属于“计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业（C39）”之“C3985 电子专用材料制造业”，主要从事磷酸铁锂与三元正极材料生产制造。国内锂电池正极材料生产商较多，综合考虑产品结构以及行业地位后，选择德方纳米、万润新能、当升科技、容百科技为可比公司。截至 2023 年 2 月 8 日，可比公司 2021 年平均静态市盈率为 42.6 倍，2022 年一致预期平均 PE 为 16.1 倍。表10：可比公司财务数据与估值表现（亿元，截至 2023 年 2 月 8 日收盘数据）股票代码股票代码公司简称公司简称20212021 年年营收营收近三年营收近三年营收复合增速复合增速20212021 年归年归母净利润母净利润近三年归母近三年归母复合增速复合增速2222 年前三季度年前三季度营收营收2222 年前三季度年前三季度归母净利润归母净利润静态静态 PEPE20212021（倍（倍）静态静态 PEPE2022E2022E（倍倍）总市值总市值（亿元）（亿元）股价（元）股价（元）300769.SZ300769.SZ德方纳米德方纳米48.4266.3%8.01101.34.1618.2855.3719.88443.26253.12688275.SH688275.SH万润新能万润新能22.2933.4%3.53405.5t.407.9246.3112.56163.28191.70300300073073.SZ.SZ当升科技当升科技82.5836.0.9151.10.8714.7830.1515.89328.9766.5168868800005.SH5.SH容百科技容百科技102.5950.0%9.1162.42.809.1838.7622.94353.0978.05平均平均42.6542.6516.1116.11301358.SZ301358.SZ湖南裕能湖南裕能70.68252.0.84365.9&5.2121.18资料来源:WIND，国信证券经济研究所整理；注：静态 PE2022E 采用 WIND 一致预期数据风险提示风险提示风险提示 1：经营上，原材料价格波动风险，新建产能消化风险，正极材料优化等行业主要技术路线发生重大变化的风险，应收账款回款风险；请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容证券研究报告证券研究报告11风险提示 2：政策上，产业支持政策变化风险；风险提示 3：内控上，无实控人风险。证券研究报告证券研究报告免责声明免责声明分析师声明分析师声明作者保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道；分析逻辑基于作者的职业理解，通过合理判断并得出结论，力求独立、客观、公正，结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响；作者在过去、现在或未来未就其研究报告所提供的具体建议或所表述的意见直接或间接收取任何报酬，特此声明。国信证券投资评级国信证券投资评级类别类别级别级别说明说明股票股票投资评级投资评级买入股价表现优于市场指数 20%以上增持股价表现优于市场指数 10%-20%之间中性股价表现介于市场指数 10%之间卖出股价表现弱于市场指数 10%以上行业行业投资评级投资评级超配行业指数表现优于市场指数 10%以上中性行业指数表现介于市场指数 10%之间低配行业指数表现弱于市场指数 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人工智能行业：生成式人工智能进入爆发期利用ETF映射关键高性能AI标的-230209（18页）.pdf

本报告由中信建投证券股份有限公司在中华人民共和国（仅为本报告目的，不包括香港、澳门、台湾）提供。在遵守适用的法律法规情况下，本报告亦可能由中信建投（国际）证券有限公司在香港提供。同时请参阅最后一页的重要声明。证券研究报告证券研究报告行业深度行业深度 生成式生成式 A AI I 进入应用爆发期，进入应用爆发期，利用利用E ETFTF 布局人工智能优质核心标布局人工智能优质核心标的的 核心观点核心观点 生成式生成式 AI 取得算法突破，取得算法突破，AIGC 进入应用爆发期，创造巨大经进入应用爆发期，创造巨大经济价值。济价值。2022 年之前，Diffusion、GPT-3、CLIP 等深度学习模型已经相继成熟，2022 年在上述的深度学习模型基础之上衍生出了例如 DALL-E 2、Stable Diffusion、ChatGPT 等诸多生成式模型，内容生产模式过渡到 AI 辅助内容生成阶段。当前 AIGC正经历一个渗透率快速提升的阶段，为人工智能行业打开全新的成长空间。深度学习带来的科技革命将产生巨大的经济价值，根据 ARK 测算，深度学习将在未来 15-20 年内，为全球股票市场增加 30 万亿美元的市值。中证人工智能指数涵盖行业优质标的，业绩稳健前景可观，中证中证人工智能指数涵盖行业优质标的，业绩稳健前景可观，中证人工智能人工智能 ETF 具备较高的配置价值。具备较高的配置价值。中证人工智能指数涵盖海康威视、科大讯飞等核心标的，包括但不限于大数据、云计算、云存储、机器学习、机器视觉、人脸识别、语音语义识别、智能芯片等细分行业。易方达中证人工智能 ETF 产品兼具费率低、流动性好、跟踪误差小等优势，展现出较高的配置价值。摘要摘要 深度学习深度学习算法算法驱动驱动，人工智能行业高成长，人工智能行业高成长。纵观人工智能行业发展历史，三次人工智能的发展浪潮均始于算法的革命性突破，2012 年深度学习模型在 ImageNet 竞赛战胜支持向量机算法，标志着第三次人工智能发展浪潮的开启。根据德勤数据，中国人工智能市场规模由 2017 年的 709 亿元增长至 2025 年的 5460 亿元，年均复合增长率为 29%。人工智能战略高度提升，场景应用成为政策关注重点。人工智能战略高度提升，场景应用成为政策关注重点。我国人工智能在国家战略层面，分别从技术突破、人才培养、创新平台、伦理要求、场景应用等方面，形成了一套系统的人工智能建设和发展的顶层设计。近期的政策中更加注重人工智能的场景创新与应用，通过人工智能与实体经济的深度融合，培育新的经济增长点。生成式生成式 AI 取得取得算法算法突破突破，衍生模型百花齐放。，衍生模型百花齐放。2022 年之前，Diffusion、GPT-3、CLIP 等深度学习模型已经相继成熟，2022年在上述的深度学习模型基础之上衍生出了诸多生成式模型。在图像生成方面，诞生了 DALL-E 2、Stable Diffusion 等模型，在自然语言生成方面，诞生了 ChatGPT 等对话式模型，深刻改变了传统的内容生产方式，内容生产模式从专业生成内容（PGC）和用户生成内容（UGC）逐渐过渡向 AI 辅助内容生成阶段。维持维持 强大于市强大于市 于芳博于芳博 010-86451607 SAC 执证编号:S1440522030001 发布日期：2023 年 02 月 09 日 市场表现市场表现 相关研究报告相关研究报告-31%-21%-11%-1%9 22/2/82022/3/82022/4/82022/5/82022/6/82022/7/82022/8/82022/9/82022/10/82022/11/82022/12/82023/1/82023/2/8计算机上证指数人工智能人工智能 行业深度报告 人工智能人工智能 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 AIGC 进入应用爆发期，创造巨大经济价值。进入应用爆发期，创造巨大经济价值。在算法成熟的基础之上，AIGC 进入应用爆发期。据 Gartner 测算，目前人工智能生成数据占所有数据比重不到 1%，到 2025 年，人工智能生成数据占比将达到 10%，当前 AIGC正经历一个渗透率快速提升的阶段，为人工智能行业打开全新的成长空间。深度学习带来的科技革命将产生巨大的经济价值，根据 ARK 测算，深度学习将在未来 15-20 年内，为全球股票市场增加 30 万亿美元的市值。中证人工智能指数：涵盖人工智能行业优质标的，业绩稳健前景可期。中证人工智能指数：涵盖人工智能行业优质标的，业绩稳健前景可期。中证人工智能指数涵盖海康威视、科大讯飞等核心标的，包括但不限于大数据、云计算、云存储、机器学习、机器视觉、人脸识别、语音语义识别、智能芯片等细分行业。2022 年前三季度中证人工智能主题指数平均 ROE 为 8.10%，营业收入同比增速为 13.05%，展现出较强的盈利能力以及良好的发展趋势。截至 2 月 3 日，中证人工智能指数自 2012 年 6 月 29 日成立以来涨幅为 176.42%，大幅跑赢同期中证 500（ 82.76%）、中证 1000（ 91.82%）和沪深 300（ 68.25%）等宽基指数，业绩表现优异。此外，该指数年化收益率、夏普比率相较于中证 500、中证 1000、沪深 300 亦有一定的优势。易方达易方达中证人工智能中证人工智能 ETF：兼具低费率、流动性好、跟踪误差小等优势，具备较高的配置价值。：兼具低费率、流动性好、跟踪误差小等优势，具备较高的配置价值。易方达中证人工智能 ETF（159819.OF）是紧密跟踪中证人工智能主题指数收益率的基金产品，追求跟踪偏离度和跟踪误差的最小化，为投资者提供一个管理透明且成本较低的指数投资工具。该产品以 ETF 方式跟踪指数，具备低基金管理费率、低托管费率的基金产品优势，而该基金实际上述费率分别为 0.15%和 0.05%，在同类基金中处于显著更低水平。当前，生成式 AI 获得投资者的广泛关注，一方面，当前人工智能的算法迭代速度相对较快，同时部分算法晦涩难懂，加大了投资者的选股难度；另一方面，目前处于场景创新和应用爆发阶段，投资者的预期相对较高，未来业绩是否如期兑现也存在一定的不确定性。在此背景下，兼具灵活性的行业投资组合易方达中证人工智能 ETF 配置价值凸显。风险提示：风险提示：人工智能技术进步不及预期；北美经济衰退预期逐步增强，宏观环境存在较大的不确定性，国际环境变化影响供应链及海外拓展；芯片紧缺可能影响相关公司的正常生产和交付，公司出货不及预期。kUlYvXtVhZeX9WaXoX8ZaQ8QaQtRnNpNmPlOpPnPkPmNpPbRqQxOMYrRrRuOpPrP 行业深度报告 人工智能人工智能 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 目录目录 一、人工智能行业进入高速成长期，场景应用获得政策关注.1 1.1 人工智能行业迎来新一轮的发展浪潮.1 1.2 人工智能上升至国家战略层面，场景应用是近期关注重点.2 二、生成式 AI 模型取得算法突破，产业进入应用爆发期.4 2.1 图像生成完成技术积淀，衍生模型百花齐放.4 2.2 自然语言预训练模型进入辅助内容生成阶段.6 2.3 生成式 AI 模型的飞跃式发展创造巨大的经济价值.7 三、中证人工智能主题指数投资价值.8 3.1 指数的编制：人工智能主题选优，定期调整样本股.8 3.2 指数特点：涵盖人工智能优质标的，业绩稳健前景可观.9 3.3 易方达中证人工智能 ETF 产品.11 风险分析.13 图表目录图表目录 图表 1：人工智能发展的三次浪潮.1 图表 2：全球人工智能市场收支规模.2 图表 3：中国人工智能行业市场规模.2 图表 4：人工智能产业相关的政策文件.2 图表 5：历年政府工作报告中对人工智能的论述.3 图表 6：AIGC 相关深度学习基础模型.4 图表 7：典型的生成式模型结构图.5 图表 8：2022 年诞生了诸多图像生成模型.5 图表 9：不同 AI 模型生成的“火星上的宇航员”图像.5 图表 10：典型的自然语言预训练模型架构.6 图表 11：超大规模的自然语言预处理模型发展历史.7 图表 12：AIGC 相关应用场景.7 图表 13：全球深度学习相关股票市值将在 15-20 年内增加至 30 万亿美元.8 图表 14：中证人工智能主题指数基本信息和编制规则.8 图表 15：中证人工智能主题指数成分股行业权重分布.9 图表 16：中证人工智能主题指数成分股行业数量分布.9 图表 17：中证人工智能主题指数前十大成分股概况.10 图表 18：中证人工智能主题指数 2022Q1-Q3 年平均 ROE 对比.10 图表 19：中证人工智能主题指数 2022Q1-Q3 营收增长率对比.10 图表 20：人工智能指数走势对比.11 图表 21：不同指数绩效表现（近五年，截止 2023 年 2 月 3 日）.11 图表 22：易方达中证人工智能 ETF 产品介绍.11 图表 23：易方达中证人工智能 ETF 认购份额及费率.12 1 行业深度报告 人工智能人工智能 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 一、人工智能行业一、人工智能行业进入高速成长期，场景应用获得政策关注进入高速成长期，场景应用获得政策关注 1.1 人工智能行业迎来新一轮的发展浪潮人工智能行业迎来新一轮的发展浪潮 人工智能(Artificial Intelligence，AI)是利用机器学习和数据分析方法赋予机器模拟、延申和拓展类人的智能的能力，本质上是对人类思维过程的模拟，主要领域包括机器学习、语言识别、图像识别和自然语言处理等。AI 概念最早始于 1956 年的达特茅斯会议，受限于算法和算力的不成熟，未能实现大规模的应用和推广。近年来，近年来，在大数据、算法和计算机能力三大要素的共同驱动下，人工智能进入高速发展阶段，其识别率、准确率均有大在大数据、算法和计算机能力三大要素的共同驱动下，人工智能进入高速发展阶段，其识别率、准确率均有大幅提高，幅提高，在诸多落地场景中都展现了在诸多落地场景中都展现了很强的实用性。很强的实用性。图表图表1：人工智能发展的三次浪潮人工智能发展的三次浪潮 资料来源：清华大学AMiner，CSDN、中信建投 深度学习引领第三次人工智能发展的浪潮。深度学习引领第三次人工智能发展的浪潮。纵观人工智能行业发展历史，三次人工智能的发展浪潮均始于算法的革命性突破，两次寒冬则是由于算力和数据量的限制。第三次浪潮中深度学习解决了训练多层神经网络时的过拟合问题，基于深度学习的神经网络成功用于图像、语音识别。标志性事件是 2012 年 ImageNet 图像识别大赛，其深度学习模型 AlexNet 的错误率仅为 15%左右，远远好于第二名支持向量机算法的 26%，这一结果迅速点燃了产业对神经网络和深度学习的兴趣，深度学习也快速的实现了商业化。Transformer 结构的提出是深度学习发展过程中的重要里程碑，进一步加速了人工智能的蓬勃发展。深度学习从最初简单的感知机算法，简单的神经网络，发展到目前参数量达到数千万亿的庞大而复杂的神经网络，成为当下人工智能技术、应用、产业中的主流解决方案。第三次浪潮中第三次浪潮中，人工智能行业整体市场呈现人工智能行业整体市场呈现高速高速增长趋势增长趋势。2021 年全球市场人工智能市场收入规模（含软件、硬件及服务）达 850 亿美元。IDC 预测，2022 年该市场规模将同比增长约 20%至 1017 亿美元，并将于 2025 2 行业深度报告 人工智能人工智能 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 年突破 2000 亿美元大关，CAGR 达 24.5%。根据德勤数据，中国人工智能市场规模由 2017 年的 709 亿元增长至 2025 年的 5460 亿元，年均复合增长率为 29%。图表图表2：全球人工智能市场收支规模全球人工智能市场收支规模 图表图表3：中国人工智能行业市场规模中国人工智能行业市场规模 资料来源：IDC，上海数字大脑研究院，中信建投 资料来源：德勤，中信建投 1.2 人工智能上升至国家战略层面人工智能上升至国家战略层面，场景应用是近期关注重点，场景应用是近期关注重点 行业行业长期长期发展发展战略清晰明确，战略清晰明确，政策重点支持政策重点支持。我国 2017 年提出新一代人工智能发展规划，对人工智能的行业发展提出了明确的战略目标，预计到 2030 年，我国要形成较为成熟的人工智能理论和技术体系，产业竞争力达到国际领先水平。后续密集出台了一系列相关的支持性政策，我国人工智能在国家战略层面，分别从技术突破、人才培养、创新平台、伦理要求、场景应用等方面，形成了一套综合、系统的人工智能建设和发展的顶层设计。近期的政策中更加注重人工智能的场景应用，通过人工智能与实体经济的深度融合，培育新的经济增长点。图表图表4：人工智能产业相关的政策文件人工智能产业相关的政策文件 时间时间 文件文件 内容内容 2017 年 新一代人工智能发展规划 分三步走，2030 年实现人工智能理论、技术与应用总体达到世界领先水平，成为世界主要人工智能创新中心。促进新一代人工智能产业发展三年行动计划(2018-2020 年)力争到 2020 年，一系列人工智能标志性产品取得重要突破，在若干重点领域形成国际竞争优势，人工智能和实体经济融合进一步深化，产业发展环境进一步优化。2018 年 新一代人工智能产业创新重点任务揭榜工作方案 重点突破一批技术先进、性能优秀、应用效果好的人工智能标志性产品、平台和服务，为产业界创新发展树立标杆和方向，培育我国人工智能产业创新发展的主力军。2019 年 关于促进人工智能和实体经济深度融合的指导意见 促进人工智能和实体经济深度融合，要把握新一代人工智能发展的特点，坚持以市场需求为导向，以产业应用为目标。850101720420500100015002000250020212022E2025E全球人工智能市场收支规模（亿美元）7099881292160820582678344043685460391$(0(%0%5 %05E00020003000400050006000市场规模(亿元)YoY(%)3 行业深度报告 人工智能人工智能 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 国家新一代人工智能开放创新平台建设工作指引 通过建设开放创新平台，着力提升技术创新研发实力和基础软硬件开放共享服务能力，鼓励各类通用软件和技术的开源开放，支撑全社会创新创业人员、团队和中小微企业投身人工智能技术研发，促进人工智能技术成果的扩散与转化应用使人工智能成为驱动实体经济建设和社会事业发展的新引擎。2020 年 国家新一代人工智能标准体系建设指南 到 2023 年，初步建立人工智能标准体系，重点研制数据、算法、系统、服务等重点急需标准，并率先在制造、交通、金融、安防、家居、养老、环保、教育、医疗健康、司法等重点行业和领域进行推进。2021 年 中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十四个五年规划和 2035 年远景目标纲要 聚焦高端芯片、操作系统、人工智能关键算法、传感器等关键领域，加快推进基础理论、基础算法、装备材料等研发突破与迭代应用。培育壮大人工智能、大数据、区块链、云计算、网络安全等新兴数字产业，提升通信设备、核心电子元器件、关键软件等产业水平。新一代人工智能伦理规范 将伦理道德融入人工智能全生命周期，为从事人工智能相关活动的自然人、法人和其他相关机构等提供伦理指引。2022 年 关于加快场景创新以人工智能高水平 应用促进经济高质量发展的指导意见 为落实新一代人工智能发展规划，系统指导各地方和各主体加快人工智能场景应用，推动经济高质量发展。关于支持建设新一代人工智能示范应用场景的通知 坚持面向世界科技前沿、面向经济主战场、面向国家重大需求、面向人民生命健康，充分发挥人工智能赋能经济社会发展的作用，围绕构建全链条、全过程的人工智能行业应用生态，支持一批基础较好的人工智能应用场景，加强研发上下游配合与新技术集成，打造形成一批可复制、可推广的标杆型示范应用场景。首批支持建设十个示范应用场景。资料来源：中国政府网，科技部，发改委，中信建投 我国政府高度重视人工智能行业的发展。我国政府高度重视人工智能行业的发展。2017 年以来多次在政府工作报告中提及人工智能产业，2022 年提出加快发展工业互联网，培育壮大集成电路、人工智能等数字产业，提升关键软硬件技术创新和供给能力。接下来，人工智能项目会更加注重于场景创新与应用，促进我国经济的高质量发展。图表图表5：历年政府工作报告中对人工智能的论述历年政府工作报告中对人工智能的论述 时间时间 内容内容 2017 年“人工智能”首次新兴产业。全面实施战略性新兴产业发展规划，加快新材料、新能源、人工智能、集成电路、生物制药、第五代移动通信等技术研发和转化，做大做强产业集群。2018 年“人工智能”再次被写入政府工作报告;做大做强新兴产业集群，实施大数据发展行动，加强新一代人工智能研发应用，在医疗、养老、教育、文化、体育等多领域推进“联网 ”2019 年 人工智能升级为“智能 ”；打造工业互联网平台，拓展“智能 ”，为制造业转型赋能升级；深化大数据、人工智能等研发应用，培育新一代信息技术、高端装备、生物医药、新能源汽车、新材料等新兴产业集群，壮大数字经济。2020 年 加强新型基础设施建设(涵盖 5G 基站建设、特高压、城际高速铁路和城市轨道交通、新能源汽车充电、大数据中心、人工智能、工业互联网七大领域)2022 年 加快发展工业互联网，培育壮大集成电路、人工智能等数字产业，提升关键软硬件技术创新和供给能力。资料来源：中国政府网,中信建投 4 行业深度报告 人工智能人工智能 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 二二、生成式、生成式 AI 模型取得模型取得算法算法突破，产业突破，产业进入应用爆发期进入应用爆发期 根据监督学习的方法差异，根据监督学习的方法差异，深度深度学习领域具有判别式学习领域具有判别式 AI 和生成式和生成式 AI 两种典型模型两种典型模型。判断式 AI 可以学习数据中的条件概率分布，根据已有数据进行分析、判断、预测，典型应用为内容的智能推荐、自动驾驶等；而生成式 AI 可以学习数据中的联合概率分布，更强调学习归纳后进行演绎创造，生成全新的内容。人工智能的概念诞生之初，人们就对计算机的内容生成就给予了厚望。1957 年,莱杰伦 希勒和伦纳德艾萨克森通过将计算机程序中的控制变量换成音符完成了历史上第一支由计算机创作的音乐作品弦乐四重奏，生成式 AI 后续由于高昂的生成成本、以及数据、算力和算法的局限性，其整体效果不令人满意，难以实现盈利模式的可持续发展，生成式 AI 始终处在技术积淀阶段，并未诞生可以规模化商业的模型。2022 年深度学习模型在生成式年深度学习模型在生成式 AI 领域取得领域取得突破性突破性进展。进展。2022 年之前，Diffusion、GPT-3、CLIP 等深度学习模型已经相继成熟，2022 年在上述的深度学习模型基础之上衍生出了诸多生成式模型，在图像生成方面，诞生了 DALL-E 2、Midjourney、Stable Diffusion 等模型，在自然语言生成方面，诞生了 ChatGPT 等对话式模型。因此，2022 年一般被认为是生成式 AI 的元年。图表图表6：AIGC 相关深度学习相关深度学习基础基础模型模型 深度学习模型深度学习模型 出现时间出现时间 特点特点 Diffusion 2020 年 1.通过增加噪声破坏训练数据来学习，然后找出如何逆转这种噪声过程以恢复原始图像。2.经过训练，该模型可以应用这些去噪方法，从随机输入中合成新的“干净”数据。GPT-3 2020 年 1.具备 1750 亿参数量的超大规模的自然语言深度学习模型，训练文本数据量高达 45TB。2.减少了对标签数据的过分依赖，在没有模型精调的情况下也能在下游的任务中表现良好。CLIP 2021 年 1.进行自然语言理解和计算机视觉分析。2.使用已经标注好的“文字-图像”训练数据。一方面对文字进行模型训练。另一方面对图像进行另一个模型的训练，不断调整两个模型内部参数，使得模型分别输出的文字特征值和图像特征值并确认匹配。资料来源：互联网天地,中信建投 2.1 图图像像生成生成完成技术积淀，衍生完成技术积淀，衍生模型模型百花齐放百花齐放 生成对抗网络生成对抗网络 GAN 让生成式让生成式 AI 领域领域焕发生机。焕发生机。2014 年出现生成对抗网络 GAN(Generative Adversarial Network)，GAN 是基于对抗学习的生成模型，该模型采用生成器与判别器进行对抗训练，反复进行不断博弈，从而生成新的能够以假乱真的内容。GAN 模型成为了图像生成的主流模型，随后还衍生出了深度卷积 GAN、有条件 GAN、StyleGAN、in-domain GAN 等模型，在神经网络架构、模型训练稳定性、模型崩溃问题上取得了相应突破，提升了最终图像的特定细节、生成速度等。但是 GAN 也有分辨率较低、创新性不足等缺点。扩散模型（扩散模型（Diffusion Model）在图像生成方面性能显著提升在图像生成方面性能显著提升。扩散模型的概念最早在 2015 年提出，2020年提出利用扩散模型的子类别 DDPM（去噪扩散概率模型）进行图像生成。其灵感来自非平衡热力学，模型定义了一个扩散步骤的马尔可夫链，在正向扩散过程中，将随机噪声添加到数据中，然后学习反向扩散过程，从噪声中构建所需的数据样本。扩散模型展现出比 GAN 模型更加逼真的视觉效果，图像质量进一步提升。5 行业深度报告 人工智能人工智能 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 CLIP 模型模型从单一图片生成拓展到多模领域。从单一图片生成拓展到多模领域。2021 年出现的 CLIP 模型(Contrastive Language-Image Pre-Training)通过构建文本编码器和图像编码器分别学习图像和文本特征，并使用多模态嵌入空间对比学习将图片分类任务转换为图文匹配任务，可以实现 zero-shot 的图像分类，即不需要任何训练数据，就能在某个具体下游任务上实现分类，CLIP 能够有效地学习视觉特征，实现了高效的多模态识别、融合与转换，CLIP 的多模能力成功的应用到了图片生成场景中。图表图表7：典型的生成式模型结构图典型的生成式模型结构图 图表图表8：2022 年诞生了诸多图像生成模型年诞生了诸多图像生成模型 资料来源：arXiv，中信建投 资料来源：中信建投 深度学习模型取得长足进步的基础上，深度学习模型取得长足进步的基础上，21 至至 22 年年图像生成模型实现快速迭代。图像生成模型实现快速迭代。Diffusion 扩散模型实现了算法创新，提升了 AI 绘画的图像质量、CLIP 模型基于海量图片数据进行训练，推动了 AI 绘画模型的组合创新。在 CLIP 模型和扩散模型的基础上，衍生出了诸如 stable diffusion、DALL-E 2、midjourney 等图像生成模型，由于算法和数据上的差异，不同的模型生成的图像也风格迥异。DALL-E 2 的创作较为写实，具有区域编辑功能；Midjourney 较为擅长艺术风格的图片生成；stable Diffusion 的模型运算量相对较小，无需云端部署，可以在配置GPU 的个人电脑端生成，未来有望在移动手机终端实现图像生成。图表图表9：不同不同 AI 模型生成的模型生成的“火星上的宇航员火星上的宇航员”图像图像 资料来源：CSDN、中信建投 6 行业深度报告 人工智能人工智能 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 2.2 自然语言预训练模型进入辅助内容生成阶段自然语言预训练模型进入辅助内容生成阶段 2006 年深度学习算法提出，随后很快被应用到自然语言处理领域，取得了惊人的成绩和广泛的应用。年深度学习算法提出，随后很快被应用到自然语言处理领域，取得了惊人的成绩和广泛的应用。2006年后诞生了多种神经网络语言模型，包括多层感知机（MLP）、卷积神经网络（CNN）、循环神经网络（RNN）和长短记忆（LSTM）网络，但是都存在一定的不足，MLP 难以捕捉局部特征，CNN 难以获得远距离特征，RNN难以充分利用并行计算加速，LSTM 减少了网络的层数，相对来说更容易优化。2017 年，采用注意力机制的年，采用注意力机制的 Transformer 模型被引入到自然语言处理以后取得了极大的成功。模型被引入到自然语言处理以后取得了极大的成功。注意力机制更加关注上下文的相关程度和深层的语义信息，因而 Transformer 模型在长距离建模和训练速度方面都优于传统的神经网络模型。近年来，在 Transformer 模型的基础之上，衍生出了 GPT、BERT 等超大规模的动态预训练语言模型，除此以外，还有基于 Word2vec 的词向量方法提出的 ELMo 模型也得到了大规模的应用。图表图表10：典型的自然语言预训练模型架构典型的自然语言预训练模型架构 资料来源：BERT:Pre-training of Deep Bidirectional Transformers for Language Understanding，中信建投 随着预训练语言模型的提出和计算机算力的快速提升，自然语言处理技术已经进入全新的发展阶段随着预训练语言模型的提出和计算机算力的快速提升，自然语言处理技术已经进入全新的发展阶段。预训练模型通过无需人工标注的大规模文本库进行高算力的预先训练，得到通用的语言模型和表现形式，再经过特定应用环境对预训练模型进行微调，从而在各种下游应用领域得到目标任务的快速收敛和准确率提升。各种预训练语言模型还在快速的更新迭代，不断刷新自然语言处理任务的表现记录，预训练模型已经在自然语言处理中得到了广泛应用。当前自然语言处理技术在某些领域已经可以媲美人类水平，同时具备多种功能应用，包括文本检索、信息过滤、机器翻译、客服问答、文本生成等，在金融、教育、医疗、互联网行业当中得到了广泛的应用，随着自然语言处理和传统行业的深度融合，将人力从部分重复性的语言工作当中解放了出来，实现了人工智能替代。7 行业深度报告 人工智能人工智能 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 图表图表11：超大规模的自然语言预处理模型发展历史超大规模的自然语言预处理模型发展历史 资料来源：State of AI Report 2022，中信建投 ChatGPT 的诞生标志着预训练语言模型正式进入辅助内容生成的阶段。的诞生标志着预训练语言模型正式进入辅助内容生成的阶段。2022 年 11 月底，OpenAI 发布了ChatGPT 人机对话交互模型，相比过去的人机对话模型，ChatGPT 展现出更贴近人类的思维逻辑，可以回复用户的连续问题，具有一定的道德准则，减少了错误问答的出现概率，具备代码的编写和 debug 功能。ChatGPT在人机对话上取得了突破性进展，模型开放测试 5 天用户便突破了百万级别，2 个月的时间月活用户突破 1 亿，成为史上用户增长速度最快的消费级应用程序。ChatGPT 作为 GPT-3 的升级版本，采用了人类反馈强化学习方式（RLHF）和近端优化策略(PPO)，通过奖励模型的设定，极大减少了无效的、编造的、有害的答案出现概率，更多输出了人们期望的答案。当前 ChatGPT 已经在诸多问答环节里表现出极高的拟人化，足以以假乱真。我们我们认为，以认为，以 ChatGPT 为代表的自然语言模型将深刻融入内容生成、搜索引擎增强、编程协助、智能客服等领域，为代表的自然语言模型将深刻融入内容生成、搜索引擎增强、编程协助、智能客服等领域，成为人们日常生活生产的重要辅助工具。成为人们日常生活生产的重要辅助工具。2.3 生成式生成式 AI 模型的飞跃式发展模型的飞跃式发展创造巨大的经济价值创造巨大的经济价值 生成模型的飞跃生成模型的飞跃式式发展带动发展带动 AIGC 进入应用爆发期。进入应用爆发期。AIGC（AI-Generated Content）指利用人工智能技术自动生成的内容，是继专业生成内容（PGC）和用户生成内容（UGC）之后一种新型生成内容的方式。图像生成和文本内容生成是 AIGC 的主要应用领域，2022 年中这两个领域均取得生成模型的飞跃发展，在算法成熟的基础之上，应用层的爆发呼之欲出。AIGC 大幅降低了内容生产成本，降低了创作门槛，打破了数字内容生产受到人类想象能力和知识水平的限制，我们预计 AIGC 将在文本生成、图像生成、音视频生成、跨模态生成领域大放异彩。图表图表12：AIGC 相关相关应用场景应用场景 领域领域 具体应用场景具体应用场景 领域领域 具体应用场景具体应用场景 文本生成 1.协助内容创作 2.代码编程协助 3.搜索引擎增强 4.智能客服 音视频生成 1.传媒领域中的音视频生成 2.换脸等趣味视频生成 3.音视频的剪辑合成工作 4.语音克隆 图像生成 1.广告营销相关图片生成 2.提供绘画创意 3.图像编辑工具 跨模态生成 1.根据文字生成图像 2.根据文字生成视频 3.根据 2D 图像生成 3D 图像或者视频 资料来源：中信建投 GPGPT T-3 3(1(17 75 5B B)PaPan n-GuGu(2 20 00 0B B)HyHyp pe erCrCL LO OV VA A(2 20 04 4B B)JuJur ra as ss si i c c-1 1 J Ju um m b bo o(204B204B)FLFLA AN N(1 13 37 7B B)J une 2020M ay 2021M eM eg ga at tr ro on n TuTur ri i n ng g-NLNLG G(1 13 37 7B B)YuYua an n 1.1.0 0(246B246B)Sep 2021GoGop ph he er r(2 28 80 0B B)ErErn ni i e e 3 3.0 0 T Ti i t ta an n(2 26 60 0B B)L La aM DM DA A(2 28 80 0B B)J an 2022GPGPT T-j j(6 6B B)GPGPT T-NeNeo oX X(2 20 0B B)Aug 2021P Pa aL LM M(5 54 40 0B B)OPOPT T(1 17 75 5B B)B BL LO OO OM M(1 17 76 6B B)G GL LM M(1 13 30 0B B)M ay 2022Aug 2022ChChi i n nc ch hi i l l l la a(7(70 0B B)chcha at tG GP PT TNov 2022 8 行业深度报告 人工智能人工智能 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 深度学习技术展现出来的变革世界的潜力超越了过去的科技创新深度学习技术展现出来的变革世界的潜力超越了过去的科技创新，预计将以前所未有的方式改变世界的生预计将以前所未有的方式改变世界的生产生活方式产生活方式，创造创造巨大巨大的经济价值的经济价值。据 Gartner 测算，目前人工智能生成数据占所有数据比重不到 1%，到 2025年，人工智能生成数据占比将达到 10%，当前 AIGC 正经历一个渗透率快速提升的阶段，为人工智能行业打开全新的成长空间。根据 ARK 数据显示，过去二十年来，互联网为全球股票市值增加了 13 万亿美元。而截至 2020年，深度学习已经创造了 2 万亿美元的市值。根据 ARK 测算，深度学习将在未来 15-20 年内，为全球股票市场增加 30 万亿美元的市值。图表图表13：全球全球深度学习深度学习相关股票市值将在相关股票市值将在 15-20 年内增加至年内增加至 30 万亿美元万亿美元 资料来源：ARK Invest,World Federation of Exchanges,H1 2020 Market Highlights,中信建投 三三、中证人工智能主题指数投资价值、中证人工智能主题指数投资价值 3.1 指数的编制：人工智能主题选优，定期调整样本股指数的编制：人工智能主题选优，定期调整样本股 中证人工智能主题指数（930713.CSI）是由中证公司发布的旨在反映 A 股市场上人工智能主题公司整体表现的指数。该指数从为人工智能提供基础资源、技术以及应用支持的公司中选取代表性公司作为样本股，包括但不限于大数据、云计算、云存储、机器学习、机器视觉、人脸识别、语音语义识别、智能芯片等细分行业。该指数发布日期为 2015 年 7 月 31 日，基日为 2012 年 6 月 29 日。图表图表14：中证人工智能主题指数基本信息和编制规则中证人工智能主题指数基本信息和编制规则 指数名称指数名称 中证人工智能主题指数中证人工智能主题指数 指数代码 930713.CSI 成分股数量 100 发布日期 2015-07-31 基日 2012-06-29 基点 1000 9 行业深度报告 人工智能人工智能 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 指数名称指数名称 中证人工智能主题指数中证人工智能主题指数 样本空间 中证全指 选样方法（1）对样本空间内股票按照最近一年（新股为上市以来）的 A 股日均成交金额由高到低进行排名，剔除排名后 20%的股票；（2）对样本空间的剩余股票，将为人工智能提供基础资源、技术以及应用支持的公司作为待选样本，包括但不限于大数据、云计算、云存储、机器学习、机器视觉、人脸识别、语音语义识别、智能芯片等；（3）在待选样本中，按照过去一年日均总市值由高到低排名，选取不超过 100 只股票构成指数样本股。计算公式 报告期指数=报告期样本股的调整市值/除数1000 其中，调整市值(股价调整股本数权重因子)调整频率 样本股每半年调整一次，时间为每年 6 月和 12 月 资料来源：Wind，中信建投 3.2 指数特点：涵盖人工智能优质标的，业绩稳健前景可观指数特点：涵盖人工智能优质标的，业绩稳健前景可观 中证人工智能主题指数中大部分成分股集中于计算机、电子行业（中信一级行业），权重占比分别为 51.34%、36.15%；细分领域方面，人工智能产业链下游应用层领域涉及行业广泛，中证人工智能主题指数的 50 个成分股涉及了 14 个中信二级行业，其中权重较高的行业为计算机软件、半导体、计算机设备、光学光电、云服务，权重分别为 24.14%、20.96%、12.83%、12.74%、12.55%，前五大行业个股权重和数量占比分别达 83.22%、78%。图表图表15：中证人工智能主题指数成分股行业权重分布中证人工智能主题指数成分股行业权重分布 图表图表16：中证人工智能主题指数成分股行业数量分布中证人工智能主题指数成分股行业数量分布 资料来源：WIND，中信建投；注：其他中包括电源设备、消费电子、航空航天、其他电子零组件、其他军工、黑色家电（中信二级行业分类）。中证人工智能主题指数成分股中证人工智能主题指数成分股涵盖人工智能行业优质标的。涵盖人工智能行业优质标的。海康威视和科大讯飞是中证人工智能主题指数权重最大的2只个股。海康威视2021年营收814.2亿，同比增长28.21%，归母净利润168亿元，同比增长25.51%。公司依托在智能物联和大数据领域深厚的软硬件技术积累，构建开放合作生态，为公共服务领域用户、企事业用户和中小企业用户提供服务，致力于构筑云边融合、物信融合、数智融合的智慧城市和数字化企业。科大讯飞 2021 年营收 183.14 亿，同比增长 40.61%，归母净利润 15.56 亿，同比增长 14.13%。公司从事智能语音及语言技术研究、软件及芯片产品开发、语音信息服务及电子政务系统集成，智慧教育、智慧医疗业务保持高速增长。24.14 .96.83.74.55%4.69%3.37%1.81%6.91%计算机软件半导体计算机设备光学光电云服务汽车零部件通用设备产业互联网其他4%2(%2%6%2%计算机软件半导体计算机设备光学光电云服务汽车零部件通用设备产业互联网其他 10 行业深度报告 人工智能人工智能 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 图表图表17：中证人工智能主题指数前十大成分股概况中证人工智能主题指数前十大成分股概况 证券代码证券代码 证券名称证券名称 权重（权重（%）中信行业分类中信行业分类 营业收入营业收入（20202121 年，亿元）年，亿元）归母净利润归母净利润（20202121 年，亿元）年，亿元）近三年涨跌幅（近三年涨跌幅（%，截止，截止 2 2023023 年年 2 2 月月 3 3 日）日）002415.SZ 海康威视 10.14 光学光电 814.20 168.00 14.65 002230.SZ 科大讯飞 6.84 计算机软件 183.14 15.56 25.89 603501.SH 韦尔股份 6.07 半导体 241.04 44.76-30.52 600588.SH 用友网络 4.58 云服务 89.32 7.08 10.36 000938.SZ 紫光股份 4.18 计算机设备 676.38 21.48 6.43 688008.SH 澜起科技 3.99 半导体 25.62 8.29-34.99 300454.SZ 深信服 3.42 云服务 68.05 2.73-4.56 002920.SZ 德赛西威 3.30 汽车零部件 95.69 8.33 312.19 300496.SZ 中科创达 3.19 计算机软件 41.27 6.47 96.68 600536.SH 中国软件 2.70 计算机软件 103.52 0.76 65.66 资料来源：WIND，中信建投 人工智能相关企业盈利能力强，发展趋势向好。人工智能相关企业盈利能力强，发展趋势向好。净资产收益率 ROE 反映了股东权益的收益水平，2022 年前三季度中证人工智能主题指数平均 ROE 为 8.10%，高于中证 500、中证 1000 的 ROE 水平，并且即使在同类指数间进行比较，亦处于同类中较高水平，说明其成分股盈利能力整体相对较强。此外，营收增长率也是衡量一个企业经营效益的重要指标。2022 年前三季度中证人工智能主题指数营收增速为 13.05%，高于中证 500、中证 1000和沪深 300，表明人工智能相关企业的发展趋势良好。图表图表18：中证人工智能主题指数中证人工智能主题指数 2022Q1-Q3 年平均年平均 ROE 对对比比 图表图表19：中证人工智能主题指数中证人工智能主题指数 2022Q1-Q3 营收增长率营收增长率对比对比 资料来源：Wind，中信建投 资料来源：Wind，中信建投 中证人工智能指数中证人工智能指数业绩表现优异。业绩表现优异。截至 2 月 3 日，中证人工智能指数自 2012 年 6 月 29 日成立以来涨幅为 176.42%，同期大幅跑赢中证 500（ 82.76%）、中证 1000（ 91.82%）和沪深 300（ 68.25%）等宽基指数，业绩表现优异。6.496.9611.178.108.690.002.004.006.008.0010.0012.00平均ROE(%)2.642.7935.6813.059.200.0010.0020.0030.0040.00营收增长率(%)11 行业深度报告 人工智能人工智能 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 图表图表20：人工智能指数走势对比人工智能指数走势对比 资料来源：Wind，中信建投 从绩效角度分析，中证人工智能主题指数近五年来在累计收益率、夏普比率等方面均表现较优。从这个角度看，作为投资标的的中证人工智能主题指数，相比于其他指数在较长周期内，更易获得相对较好的投资回报。图表图表21：不同指数绩效表现（近五年，截止不同指数绩效表现（近五年，截止 2023 年年 2 月月 3 日）日）指数名称指数名称 C CS S 人工智人工智能能 创业板指创业板指数数 中证中证 5 50000 中证中证 1 1000000 沪深沪深 300300 累计收益率（%）14.75Y.19.19.48%-1.49%年化收益率（%）2.89.09%2.41%2.08%-0.31%年化波动率（%）30.69(.11$.31.19 .62%夏普比率 0.16%0.41%0.11%0.08%-0.05%资料来源：Wind，中信建投 3.3 易方达中证人工智能易方达中证人工智能 ETF 产品产品 易方达中证人工智能 ETF（159819.OF）是由易方达基金管理有限公司于 2020 年 7 月 20 日至 7 月 31 日发行的交易型开放式指数证券投资基金，这只 ETF 的业绩基准为中证人工智能主题指数（930713.CSI），且以紧密跟踪标的指数，追求跟踪偏离度和跟踪误差的最小化为其投资目标，在基金管理模式上主要采取“完全复制法 适当的替代性策略”来跟踪相应标的指数，指数化投资热潮刚刚兴起，随着国内资本市场逐渐完善和健全，越来越多的投资者开始选择指数化投资来分散投资风险和追求长收益。图表图表22：易方达中证人工智能易方达中证人工智能 ETF 产品介绍产品介绍 基金名称基金名称 易方达中证人工智能主题交易型开放式指数证券投资基金易方达中证人工智能主题交易型开放式指数证券投资基金 证券简称 AI 智能 基金代码 159819 基金类型 交易型开放式指数基金 发行日期 2020 年 07 月 20 日-07 月 31 日 基金托管人 中国工商银行 投资比例 本基金投资于标的指数成份股及备选成份股的资产不低于非现金资产的 80%且不低于基金资产净值的-100%00 0000P0%CS人工智能中证500中证1000创业板指沪深300 12 行业深度报告 人工智能人工智能 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 基金名称基金名称 易方达中证人工智能主题交易型开放式指数证券投资基金易方达中证人工智能主题交易型开放式指数证券投资基金 90%，因法律法规的规定而受限制的情形除外。投资目标 紧密跟踪标的指数，追求跟踪偏离度和跟踪误差的最小化。业绩比较基准 中证人工智能主题指数收益率 风险收益特征 本基金为股票型基金，预期风险与预期收益水平高于混合型基金、债券型基金与货币市场基金。本基金为指数型基金，主要采用完全复制法跟踪标的指数的表现，具有与标的指数相似的风险收益特征。资料来源：Wind，中信建 图表图表23：易方达中证人工智能易方达中证人工智能 ETF 认购份额及费率认购份额及费率 认购份额（认购份额（M M）认购费率认购费率 M50 万份 0.80P 万份M100 万份 0.50%M100 万份 按笔固定收取 500 元/笔 管理费率 0.15%托管费率 0.05%资料来源：Wind，中信建投 ETF 产品是一种良好的投资工具，不仅具备股票与指数基金的特色，也兼具封闭式与开放式基金的优点。产品是一种良好的投资工具，不仅具备股票与指数基金的特色，也兼具封闭式与开放式基金的优点。相比于普通指数基金，ETF 可像股票一样，被拆分成更小交易单位在交易所二级市场交易，也不要求 ETF 投资人细挖市场上每只股票。从产品角度看，ETF 产品兼具费率低、流动性好的优势。从配置角度看，ETF 产品具备良好的跟踪误差，而大多数主动管理型产品在市场反转时仓位变化往往难以跟上市场节奏，因此，股票型 ETF产品具有良好的配置价值。随着政策的支持随着政策的支持和和算法的突破，生成式算法的突破，生成式 AI 迎来应用爆发，人工智能行业发展再度提速。迎来应用爆发，人工智能行业发展再度提速。2017 年提出新一代人工智能发展规划，对人工智能的行业发展提出了明确的战略目标，预计到 2030 年，我国要形成较为成熟的人工智能理论和技术体系，产业竞争力达到国际领先水平，行业的远期目标明确。国家新一代人工智能标准体系建设指南、关于支持建设新一代人工智能示范应用场景的通知等政策出台，人工智能的场景创新与应用得到政策关注。当前，生成式 AI 算法取得突破，衍生模型百花齐放，生成式 AI 迎来行业的应用爆发，引起了投资者的广泛关注。一方面，当前人工智能的算法迭代速度相对较快，同时部分算法晦涩难懂，加大了投资者的选股难度；另一方面，目前处于场景创新和应用爆发阶段，投资者的预期相对较高，未来业绩是否如期兑现也存在一定的不确定性。在此背景下，通过参与一个“行业投资组合”将人工智能产业链上细分领域的龙头公司都配置一定的底仓，再紧密跟踪行业的发展动态并深入研究相关公司的业务情况，进行长期的跟踪投资是一个不错选择，其中股票型 ETF 产品凸显出了良好的配置价值。感谢樊文辉、辛侠平对本报告的贡献。感谢樊文辉、辛侠平对本报告的贡献。13 行业深度报告 人工智能人工智能 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 风险分析风险分析 北美经济衰退预期逐步增强，宏观环境存在较大的不确定性，国际环境变化影响供应链及海外拓展；芯片紧缺可能影响相关公司的正常生产和交付，公司出货不及预期；疫情影响公司正常生产和交付，导致收入及增速不及预期；信息化和数字化方面的需求和资本开支不及预期；市场竞争加剧，导致毛利率快速下滑；主要原材料价格上涨，导致毛利率不及预期；汇率波动影响外向型企业的汇兑收益与毛利率；人工智能技术进步不及预期；汽车与工业智能化进展不及预期等；半导体扩产不及预期。14 行业深度报告 人工智能人工智能 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 分析师介绍分析师介绍 于芳博于芳博 中信建投人工智能组首席分析师，北京大学空间物理学学士、硕士，2019 年 7 月加入中信建投，主要覆盖人工智能等方向，下游重点包括智能汽车、CPU/GPU/FPGA/ASIC、EDA 和工业软件等方向。15 行业深度报告 人工智能人工智能 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 评级说明评级说明 投资评级标准 评级 说明 报告中投资建议涉及的评级标准为报告发布日后 6个月内的相对市场表现，也即报告发布日后的 6 个月内公司股价（或行业指数）相对同期相关证券市场代表性指数的涨跌幅作为基准。A 股市场以沪深300 指数作为基准；新三板市场以三板成指为基准；香港市场以恒生指数作为基准；美国市场以标普 500 指数为基准。股票评级 买入 相对涨幅 15以上 增持 相对涨幅 5 中性 相对涨幅-5%5之间 减持 相对跌幅 5 卖出 相对跌幅 15以上 行业评级 强于大市 相对涨幅 10%以上 中性 相对涨幅-10-10%之间 弱于大市 相对跌幅 10%以上 分析师声明分析师声明 本报告署名分析师在此声明：（i）以勤勉的职业态度、专业审慎的研究方法，使用合法合规的信息，独立、客观地出具本报告,结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响。（ii）本人不曾因，不因，也将不会因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直接或间接收到任何形式的补偿。法律主体说明法律主体说明 本报告由中信建投证券股份有限公司及/或其附属机构（以下合称“中信建投”）制作，由中信建投证券股份有限公司在中华人民共和国（仅为本报告目的，不包括香港、澳门、台湾）提供。中信建投证券股份有限公司具有中国证监会许可的投资咨询业务资格，本报告署名分析师所持中国证券业协会授予的证券投资咨询执业资格证书编号已披露在报告首页。在遵守适用的法律法规情况下，本报告亦可能由中信建投（国际）证券有限公司在香港提供。本报告作者所持香港证监会牌照的中央编号已披露在报告首页。一般性声明一般性声明 本报告由中信建投制作。发送本报告不构成任何合同或承诺的基础，不因接收者收到本报告而视其为中信建投客户。本报告的信息均来源于中信建投认为可靠的公开资料，但中信建投对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载观点、评估和预测仅反映本报告出具日该分析师的判断，该等观点、评估和预测可能在不发出通知的情况下有所变更，亦有可能因使用不同假设和标准或者采用不同分析方法而与中信建投其他部门、人员口头或书面表达的意见不同或相反。本报告所引证券或其他金融工具的过往业绩不代表其未来表现。报告中所含任何具有预测性质的内容皆基于相应的假设条件，而任何假设条件都可能随时发生变化并影响实际投资收益。中信建投不承诺、不保证本报告所含具有预测性质的内容必然得以实现。本报告内容的全部或部分均不构成投资建议。本报告所包含的观点、建议并未考虑报告接收人在财务状况、投资目的、风险偏好等方面的具体情况，报告接收者应当独立评估本报告所含信息，基于自身投资目标、需求、市场机会、风险及其他因素自主做出决策并自行承担投资风险。中信建投建议所有投资者应就任何潜在投资向其税务、会计或法律顾问咨询。不论报告接收者是否根据本报告做出投资决策，中信建投都不对该等投资决策提供任何形式的担�